Newbury: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Newbury: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Laura Farris  (CON)
County/Area: Berkshire (South East)
Electorate: 83,414
Turnout: 71.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,43157.4%56.1%
LIB18,38430.6%19.6%
LAB4,4047.3%14.8%
Green2,4544.1%5.4%
OTH3250.5%4.0%
CON Majority16,04726.7%Pred Maj 36.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LIB
1%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Newbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Newbury constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position19° Right11° Right
National Position2° Nat3° Nat
Social Position1° Con1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %48%52%52%
British Identity30%29%29%
Good Health52%49%48%
UK Born91%88%87%
Good Education45%43%39%
Good Job59%56%51%
High SEC61%57%51%
Average Age49.049.148.3
ABC1 Class64%60%54%

Newbury ranks #449 for "Leave", #7 for "Right", #348 for "National" and #369 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Newbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Newbury

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Newbury.

NewburyActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West BerkshireAldermaston1,369CONCON600150161036038985
West BerkshireBasildon2,859CONCON1,359226240012901032,057
West BerkshireBradfield1,323CONCON639130112034036951
West BerkshireBucklebury2,853CONCON1,44121619101260802,054
West BerkshireChieveley and Cold Ash5,514CONCON2,800421324024201793,966
West BerkshireDownlands3,048CONCON1,4882882510780872,192
West BerkshireHungerford and Kintbury8,982CONCON3,8907551,241032502496,460
West BerkshireLambourn3,216CONCON1,5463792250750882,313
West BerkshireNewbury Central5,270CONCON1,6677031,032024301463,791
West BerkshireNewbury Clay Hill5,206CONCON1,990756630022101513,748
West BerkshireNewbury Greenham8,632CONCON2,8091,1351,689033502396,207
West BerkshireNewbury Speen5,589CONCON2,429630533026901584,019
West BerkshireNewbury Wash Common7,108CONCON2,7036441,223032702155,112
West BerkshireRidgeway3,180CONCON1,52725423401820912,288
West BerkshireThatcham Central5,352CONCON1,8316281,031020801503,848
West BerkshireThatcham Colthrop and Crookham2,628CONCON1,0482844130740721,891
West BerkshireThatcham North East5,878CONCON2,0436731,184015301744,227
West BerkshireThatcham West5,405CONCON1,8626011,069020401493,885
 Total83,412CONCON33,6728,87311,78303,26102,40559,994

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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