Newry and Armagh: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Newry and Armagh: Overview

 Predicted winner: SF 
 Acual winner: SF 

MP at 2019: Mickey Brady  (SF)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 81,226
Turnout: 62.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF20,28740.0%41.8%
DUP11,00021.7%16.8%
SDLP9,44918.6%19.5%
Alliance4,2118.3%8.5%
UUP4,2048.3%9.9%
OTH1,6283.2%3.5%
SF Majority9,28718.3%Pred Maj 22.3%
Chance of
winning
SF
94%
DUP
1%
SDLP
4%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Newry and Armagh : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Newry and Armagh constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %37%44%52%
British Identity25%40%29%
Good Health50%48%48%
UK Born90%93%88%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job43%47%51%
High SEC55%57%51%
Average Age46.647.248.4
ABC1 Class38%45%53%

Newry and Armagh ranks #580 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Newry and Armagh: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Newry and Armagh: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Newry and Armagh

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Newry and Armagh at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Newry and Armagh. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Newry and ArmaghActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown20144305122054080140
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral201422958364301,01334
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne201434558011735082339
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn20148571635250064326
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady2014268574856095536
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland201469228336670023214
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2014432209585160317263
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon201440661702490126373
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill201482818750600154436
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan20144364132395060937
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill20149451785770059378
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan201451451312100664310
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee20148901605810081477
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall201449939338587047655
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey201442378000536359
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot201424458000627524
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook201422641870001,2090
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough20141393819009880
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2014783747001,0160
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2014103427000512421
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane201449520000559397
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom201441424000496335
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill20141144085009690
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge201424766210400526153
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane20141294385001,0540
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2014194303104009070
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2014125579000530351
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2014363272174007970

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Newry and ArmaghEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,76325344544420509260802,353
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,63813447234318501,0670742,275
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,66519350138821909110802,292
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,23929119179515905270622,025
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,63415447335718901,0230762,272
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland558445011640087011348
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,06323820480615404540591,915
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon94642850130258
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,53333421981217606000682,209
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,28523437646717807290692,053
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,57932321187617505840692,238
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,55228845344319807610782,221
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,66534020489317806060702,291
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,57926637567826705760752,237
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,7225145125013707580551,702
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,6946862534518801,0070762,309
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,40912128731216101,1860642,131
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,6877726023312509340501,679
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,6135225321211709530481,635
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,7218447427314406680581,701
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,4486569531417208390702,155
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,9295355926614607470591,830
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,6526828322612209100501,659
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3081562331705907193
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,8827630324613409900541,803
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,67110421625112809190511,669
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,7978858527214605990591,749
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,84618521832214408530561,778
 Total81,2264,2059,44911,0014,209020,28601,63050,780

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Newry and Armagh

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Newry and Armagh.

Newry and ArmaghPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,763317512358001,0710962,354
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,638189530276001,1920882,275
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,665257569312001,0570962,291
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,239343246716006450752,025
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,634210533287001,1510902,271
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland558566210200114014348
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,063288257731005670721,915
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon94862600170259
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,533391279726007300822,208
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,285290436387008570832,053
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,579380272789007140832,238
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,552350519357009020942,222
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,665398266804007390852,292
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,579343457591007520942,237
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,72291494201008500651,701
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,694124684278001,1340902,310
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,409169338251001,2960762,130
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,687114299188001,0190591,679
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,61387290171001,0320571,637
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,721127520220007660691,702
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,448116749253009550832,156
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,92996605214008450701,830
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,652104321182009920591,658
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge308206727007108193
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,882116345198001,0800641,803
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,671143257202001,0070611,670
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,797131631219006980701,749
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,846230266259009560671,778
 Total81,2265,48810,8109,3250023,20901,95250,784

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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