Newry and Armagh: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Newry and Armagh, or click here to find another new seat.

Newry and Armagh: Overview

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019:Mickey Brady  (SF)
County/Area:Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:81,226
Turnout:62.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SF20,28740.0%40.0%
DUP11,00021.7%21.7%
SDLP9,44918.6%18.7%
Alliance4,2118.3%8.3%
UUP4,2048.3%8.3%
OTH1,6283.2%3.0%
SF Majority9,28718.3%18.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
SF
85%
DUP
11%
SDLP
4%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Newry and Armagh : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Newry and Armagh constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %37%44%52%
British Identity20%32%52%
Average Age48.949.349.5
Good Education46%48%49%
Employed57%56%58%
Homeowner72%69%63%
Car owner91%87%77%
Married48%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian90%81%50%
ABC1 Class39%46%55%
Average House Price£136,782£148,218£309,210

Newry and Armagh ranks #578 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Newry and Armagh: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Newry and Armagh

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Newry and Armagh.

Newry and ArmaghActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,872SFSF21658848914609170652,421
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,059SFSF5149027911008960841,910
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,572SFSF10661834320208970662,232
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,549DUPDUP381143975187042601072,219
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,567SFSF7457734113701,0030992,231
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland521DUPDUP62471034406703326
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,420DUPDUP33831992913303850352,139
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon73DUPDUP73225080146
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,761DUPDUP4301601,004164047401202,352
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,704SFSF28553054115007650462,317
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,534DUPDUP375141953214042101052,209
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,888SFSF241464441173098801252,432
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,534DUPDUP382143947205042601072,210
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,192DUPDUP27038355529504530401,996
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,330SFSF1930019613007450651,455
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,234SFSF2739727524009930902,022
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,218SFSF13036626510401,1360102,011
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,870SFSF713672258801,035081,794
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,910SFSF4835720911401,081091,818
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,364SFSF4130321318406730641,478
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,188SFSF2545825728108850841,990
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom3,090SFSF2543125323909000831,931
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill3,014SFSF6441022910301,069091,884
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge276SFSF1449311205609171
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane3,106SFSF674222379201,114091,941
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,881SFSF1633092421160961091,800
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,637SFSF4040722025406690581,648
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,863SFSF277289252960866091,789
 Total81,227SFSF4,2299,47111,0264,218020,30901,51950,772

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Feb-2024 16:41, Py3L, sc1055)