Newry and Armagh: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Newry and Armagh: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2019: Mickey Brady  (SF)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 81,226
Turnout: 62.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF20,28740.0%40.0%
DUP11,00021.7%21.7%
SDLP9,44918.6%18.7%
Alliance4,2118.3%8.3%
UUP4,2048.3%8.3%
OTH1,6283.2%3.0%
SF Majority9,28718.3%Pred Maj 18.3%
Chance of
winning
SF
84%
DUP
11%
SDLP
4%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Newry and Armagh : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Newry and Armagh constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %37%44%52%
British Identity25%40%29%
Good Health50%48%48%
UK Born90%93%87%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job43%47%51%
High SEC55%57%51%
Average Age46.647.248.3
ABC1 Class38%46%53%

Newry and Armagh ranks #578 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Newry and Armagh: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Newry and Armagh

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Newry and Armagh.

Newry and ArmaghActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,843SFSF22157948614309100642,403
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,218SFSF7751128210909430882,010
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,637SFSF14962432619309140672,273
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,486DUPDUP337152979190041901042,181
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,541SFSF10556832112609960982,214
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland503DUPDUP54451034406503314
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,304DUPDUP29031192213703730342,067
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon71DUPDUP63225070144
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,676DUPDUP3811681,004167046401152,299
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,652SFSF25951855415407540452,284
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,543DUPDUP338153977221042301052,217
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,785SFSF233447437168096201192,366
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,489DUPDUP339153956209042201052,184
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,478DUPDUP26441363033004940442,175
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,522SFSF3032221013908070691,577
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,408SFSF4041428424901,0480942,129
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,150SFSF1513542479401,1120101,968
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,805SFSF993552027701,012081,753
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,806SFSF6734119110401,042081,753
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,502SFSF6131721719007130671,565
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,343SFSF3747626729309280882,089
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom3,011SFSF3441624323108770801,881
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,935SFSF893952089201,041091,834
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge236SFSF1342271004807147
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,957SFSF923982097901,061091,848
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,821SFSF1643012371110942091,764
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,703SFSF5941321725506860601,690
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,802SFSF2412832691020847091,751
 Total81,227SFSF4,2309,47211,0274,222020,31001,51950,780

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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