Newton Abbot: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Newton Abbot: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Anne Marie Morris  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 72,533
Turnout: 72.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,19055.5%54.3%
LIB11,68922.2%11.2%
LAB9,32917.8%25.3%
Green1,5082.9%4.2%
OTH8401.6%5.1%
CON Majority17,50133.3%Pred Maj 29.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
96%
LIB
0%
LAB
4%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Newton Abbot : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Newton Abbot constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right7° Right
National Position10° Nat4° Nat
Social Position3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born96%92%87%
Good Education37%41%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC52%52%51%
Average Age53.250.448.3
ABC1 Class51%54%54%

Newton Abbot ranks #238 for "Leave", #162 for "Right", #152 for "National" and #266 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Newton Abbot: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Newton Abbot

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Newton Abbot.

Newton AbbotActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TeignbridgeAmbrook4,694CONCON2,018729330011402103,401
TeignbridgeAshburton and Buckfastleigh140CONCON5231110305102
TeignbridgeBishopsteignton2,242CONCON9823172050550671,626
TeignbridgeBradley5,307CONCON2,111979420012102143,845
TeignbridgeBuckland and Milber6,538CONCON2,3481,330628015002794,735
TeignbridgeBushell4,514CONCON1,5621,044362011301903,271
TeignbridgeCollege3,992CONCON1,586804241010501572,893
TeignbridgeDawlish North East6,964CONCON2,5791,221692034102125,045
TeignbridgeDawlish South West4,824CONCON1,805852432023501723,496
TeignbridgeIpplepen2,092CONCON8433172440490631,516
TeignbridgeKenton and Starcross2,392CONCON89739424901220711,733
TeignbridgeKerswell-with-Combe4,785CONCON1,967764446010801823,467
TeignbridgeKingsteignton East5,077CONCON2,123828283025601883,678
TeignbridgeKingsteignton West4,610CONCON1,830832391010701783,338
TeignbridgeShaldon and Stokeinteignhead2,088CONCON1,091239950400481,513
TeignbridgeTeignmouth Central4,372CONCON1,646933317010801643,168
TeignbridgeTeignmouth East3,976CONCON1,74569421908901332,880
TeignbridgeTeignmouth West3,921CONCON1,330962303010301422,840
 Total72,528CONCON28,51513,2705,86802,21902,67552,547

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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