Norfolk North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norfolk North: Overview

 Predicted winner: LIB 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Duncan Baker  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 70,729
Turnout: 71.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,79258.6%41.7%
LIB15,39730.3%44.3%
LAB3,8957.7%11.0%
Brexit1,7393.4%3.0%
CON Majority14,39528.3%Pred Maj 2.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
44%
LIB
55%
LAB
0%
Brexit
0%

Norfolk North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk North constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LIBCONCON
Party Winner 2015LIBCONCON
Economic Position1° Right9° Right
National Position12° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con3° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %59%56%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health39%47%48%
UK Born96%89%88%
Good Education33%37%39%
Good Job44%53%51%
High SEC47%53%51%
Average Age56.149.448.5
ABC1 Class46%55%54%

Norfolk North ranks #195 for "Leave", #325 for "Right", #90 for "National" and #189 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Norfolk North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Norfolk North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Norfolk North at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Norfolk North. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Norfolk NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
North NorfolkBriston2015557132342245810
North NorfolkChaucer20155201174412671100
North NorfolkCorpusty20155563091843241160
North NorfolkCromer Town20151,2585881,36401830
North NorfolkErpingham201567820735602660
North NorfolkGaunt2015467173464089310
North NorfolkGlaven Valley201543878634148530
North NorfolkHappisburgh201556915863101190
North NorfolkHigh Heath201545311047201620
North NorfolkHolt20158865691,3117141820
North NorfolkHoveton20157911842240990
North NorfolkMundesley20151,7605828020237420
North NorfolkNorth Walsham East20158814621,4907454040
North NorfolkNorth Walsham North20158345711,79702270
North NorfolkNorth Walsham West20158998861,4214571450
North NorfolkPoppyland201578620534301550
North NorfolkPriory20151,5917351,37103260
North NorfolkRoughton201567819436001470
North NorfolkScottow201558221848001000
North NorfolkSheringham North20151,1685691,26003600
North NorfolkSheringham South20151,8183771,4523782890
North NorfolkSt Benet20154821297150910
North NorfolkStalham and Sutton20151,5047711,55102100
North NorfolkSuffield Park20151,4288491,0164953260
North NorfolkThe Runtons20155541285750980
North NorfolkWaterside20151,7273701,0758983000
North NorfolkWaxham201552515946701720
North NorfolkWorstead201559717547501800

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Norfolk NorthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North NorfolkBriston2,039921102392510001,466
North NorfolkChaucer1,87881986400450001,350
North NorfolkCorpusty1,940844110392480001,394
North NorfolkCromer Town3,0801,237222672810002,212
North NorfolkErpingham1,94884287426440001,399
North NorfolkGaunt2,048859100464480001,471
North NorfolkGlaven Valley1,70668570433380001,226
North NorfolkHappisburgh1,99183194459470001,431
North NorfolkHigh Heath1,58464866390340001,138
North NorfolkHolt3,1821,293183731800002,287
North NorfolkHoveton1,62073980306380001,163
North NorfolkMundesley3,5351,571198684880002,541
North NorfolkNorth Walsham East3,5071,400232798910002,521
North NorfolkNorth Walsham North3,5071,360227843900002,520
North NorfolkNorth Walsham West3,5481,429255771940002,549
North NorfolkPoppyland1,99289994391480001,432
North NorfolkPriory3,2661,383181702810002,347
North NorfolkRoughton1,83480686383430001,318
North NorfolkScottow2,4791,055131532630001,781
North NorfolkSheringham North2,9871,204175693740002,146
North NorfolkSheringham South3,1611,344153701740002,272
North NorfolkSt Benet1,78471776448410001,282
North NorfolkStalham and Sutton3,6011,519230743950002,587
North NorfolkSuffield Park3,3831,417246681880002,432
North NorfolkThe Runtons1,80075077424420001,293
North NorfolkWaterside3,5121,594156690840002,524
North NorfolkWaxham1,82777885406440001,313
North NorfolkWorstead1,99084892444460001,430
 Total70,72929,7923,89415,3991,74000050,825

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk North.

Norfolk NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North NorfolkBriston2,039673150597450001,465
North NorfolkChaucer1,878590131589400001,350
North NorfolkCorpusty1,940608156587430001,394
North NorfolkCromer Town3,080863295982720002,212
North NorfolkErpingham1,948605133622390001,399
North NorfolkGaunt2,048610148670430001,471
North NorfolkGlaven Valley1,706477110604340001,225
North NorfolkHappisburgh1,991589141659420001,431
North NorfolkHigh Heath1,584455103549300001,137
North NorfolkHolt3,1829062581,052710002,287
North NorfolkHoveton1,620542118469340001,163
North NorfolkMundesley3,5351,1412821,040780002,541
North NorfolkNorth Walsham East3,5079733151,152810002,521
North NorfolkNorth Walsham North3,5079333101,196800002,519
North NorfolkNorth Walsham West3,5489973391,129840002,549
North NorfolkPoppyland1,992657141591430001,432
North NorfolkPriory3,2669862581,031720002,347
North NorfolkRoughton1,834583129567380001,317
North NorfolkScottow2,479753190782560001,781
North NorfolkSheringham North2,987841246994660002,147
North NorfolkSheringham South3,1619592281,019660002,272
North NorfolkSt Benet1,784500118627360001,281
North NorfolkStalham and Sutton3,6011,0813151,106850002,587
North NorfolkSuffield Park3,3831,0053261,022780002,431
North NorfolkThe Runtons1,800531120605370001,293
North NorfolkWaterside3,5121,1672391,043750002,524
North NorfolkWaxham1,827556128590390001,313
North NorfolkWorstead1,990606139644410001,430
 Total70,72921,1875,56622,5181,54800050,819

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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