Norfolk North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norfolk North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Duncan Baker  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 70,729
Turnout: 71.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,79258.6%57.4%
LIB15,39730.3%20.3%
LAB3,8957.7%15.2%
Brexit1,7393.4%2.2%
Green00.0%1.4%
OTH00.0%3.5%
CON Majority14,39528.3%Pred Maj 37.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LIB
1%
LAB
0%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Norfolk North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk North constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LIBCONCON
Party Winner 2015LIBCONCON
Economic Position1° Right9° Right
National Position12° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con3° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %59%56%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health39%47%48%
UK Born96%89%87%
Good Education33%37%39%
Good Job44%52%51%
High SEC47%53%51%
Average Age56.149.348.3
ABC1 Class46%55%54%

Norfolk North ranks #195 for "Leave", #325 for "Right", #90 for "National" and #189 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk North.

Norfolk NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North NorfolkBacton2,092CONCON86224628833200531,502
North NorfolkBeeston Regis and The Runtons2,241CONCON91620637337220571,611
North NorfolkBriston2,053CONCON85820330933200521,475
North NorfolkCoastal2,022CONCON83617534329200501,453
North NorfolkCromer Town4,065CONCON1,509539668634001022,921
North NorfolkErpingham2,248CONCON98823727835220571,617
North NorfolkGresham2,043CONCON89518328533200521,468
North NorfolkHappisburgh2,217CONCON91326130338220561,593
North NorfolkHickling2,227CONCON94920133538220571,602
North NorfolkHolt3,671CONCON1,60730953757360922,638
North NorfolkHoveton and Tunstead4,364CONCON2,144402374644201093,135
North NorfolkMundesley2,281CONCON89323839137220581,639
North NorfolkNorth Walsham East3,796CONCON1,41053658562370962,726
North NorfolkNorth Walsham Market Cross2,179CONCON82926735736210551,565
North NorfolkNorth Walsham West4,367CONCON1,622607678764301113,137
North NorfolkPoppyland2,175CONCON1,02021821037210551,561
North NorfolkPriory1,400CONCON62613217523140351,005
North NorfolkRoughton2,346CONCON1,05120631136230591,686
North NorfolkSheringham North2,079CONCON79026333830200521,493
North NorfolkSheringham South4,211CONCON1,819370627644101063,027
North NorfolkSt Benet's2,065CONCON85318933534200521,483
North NorfolkStalham4,511CONCON1,755523726784401153,241
North NorfolkStody1,431CONCON58314822621140361,028
North NorfolkSuffield Park2,251CONCON82130837237220571,617
North NorfolkTrunch2,215CONCON92122533335220561,592
North NorfolkWells with Holkham2,019CONCON78232524529200501,451
North NorfolkWorstead2,161CONCON89621233336210551,553
 Total70,730CONCON29,1487,72910,3351,13169101,78550,819

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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