Norfolk South West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norfolk South West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Liz Truss  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 78,455
Turnout: 65.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,50769.0%67.7%
LAB9,31218.1%21.3%
LIB4,1668.1%4.1%
Green1,6453.2%3.8%
OTH8361.6%3.1%
CON Majority26,19550.9%Pred Maj 46.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Norfolk South West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk South West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right9° Right
National Position19° Nat7° Nat
Social Position10° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %68%56%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health42%47%48%
UK Born90%89%87%
Good Education29%37%39%
Good Job43%52%51%
High SEC44%53%51%
Average Age51.249.348.3
ABC1 Class44%55%54%

Norfolk South West ranks #46 for "Leave", #159 for "Right", #11 for "National" and #20 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk South West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk South West.

Norfolk South WestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland2,530CONCON1,201330460560271,660
BrecklandAshill616CONCON292601502909405
BrecklandBedingfeld2,541CONCON1,206325510560301,668
BrecklandForest2,296CONCON1,150239440470261,506
BrecklandGuiltcross2,626CONCON1,203368570630311,722
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2,713CONCON1,251371620620341,780
BrecklandLaunditch34CONCON1631010021
BrecklandNar Valley2,345CONCON1,101313490480271,538
BrecklandSwaffham6,665CONCON2,8411,042184015201534,372
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,193CONCON54812229070015784
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,276CONCON1,347582820740642,149
BrecklandThetford Burrell3,648CONCON1,2248971010920792,393
BrecklandThetford Castle3,665CONCON1,434742850810642,406
BrecklandThetford Priory4,151CONCON1,3891,060970940812,721
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield438CONCON220351009013287
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenver2,130CONCON1,033196500520661,397
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town2,313CONCON8404181300640661,518
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,168CONCON8363201370630681,424
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth and Outwell4,178CONCON2,019442930930932,740
King's Lynn and West NorfolkFeltwell4,266CONCON2,259355640750452,798
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMethwold2,139CONCON997253510550481,404
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham2,211CONCON88928310601120611,451
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham2,132CONCON9242471100420751,398
King's Lynn and West NorfolkTerrington778CONCON3698420020017510
King's Lynn and West NorfolkTilney, Mershe Lande and Wiggenhall4,205CONCON2,0344189809701102,757
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph5,244CONCON2,505540130014001253,440
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalsoken, West Walton and Walpole3,386CONCON1,639369710780652,222
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington2,290CONCON1,080238650620561,501
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey2,278CONCON1,008318540560581,494
 Total78,455CONCON34,85510,9702,09201,94301,60651,466

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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