Norfolk South West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Norfolk South West: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Liz Truss  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 78,455
Turnout: 65.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,50769.0%65.0%
LAB9,31218.1%21.7%
LIB4,1668.1%9.7%
Green1,6453.2%2.4%
OTH8361.6%1.2%
CON Majority26,19550.9%Pred Maj 43.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Norfolk South West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Norfolk South West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right9° Right
National Position19° Nat7° Nat
Social Position10° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %68%56%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health42%47%48%
UK Born90%89%88%
Good Education29%37%39%
Good Job43%53%51%
High SEC44%53%51%
Average Age51.249.448.5
ABC1 Class44%55%54%

Norfolk South West ranks #46 for "Leave", #159 for "Right", #11 for "National" and #20 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Norfolk South West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Norfolk South West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Norfolk South West at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Norfolk South West. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Norfolk South WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland20153,642001,00800
BrecklandAshill2015755004952370
BrecklandBedingfield2015-100000
BrecklandForest20151,420485006020
BrecklandGuiltcross20151,2425300000
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2015-100000
BrecklandLaunditch2015-100000
BrecklandNar Valley20158160053200
BrecklandSwaffham2015-300000
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham20151,2724320000
BrecklandThetford Boudica20151,45591221975000
BrecklandThetford Burrell20151,0041,585082800
BrecklandThetford Castle20151,63291925281100
BrecklandThetford Priory20158771,457098100
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield20152,099001,2374140
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton20155,0211,66101,27400
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town201556225802520164
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham20158654900000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell20152,4340099900
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver2015-100000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande20157520050500
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham2015723338001630
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham2015788276038300
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence2015-100000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph20152,474001,00900
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalton2015-100000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington201550733210337300
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall2015529003702290
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham2015-100000
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey2015737268033400

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Norfolk South WestEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland2,2011,0601831300470231,443
BrecklandAshill562265533201206368
BrecklandBedingfield2,2691,1131831240460231,489
BrecklandForest2,2841,0482431340500241,499
BrecklandGuiltcross2,2261,0042401430500241,461
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2,2861,1111861330470231,500
BrecklandLaunditch261232000017
BrecklandNar Valley1,8989061771030390201,245
BrecklandSwaffham5,4972,61654027901140583,607
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,12451111772025012737
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,8461,6215482240840452,522
BrecklandThetford Burrell4,5071,6519572040940502,956
BrecklandThetford Castle4,6431,94167727101030543,046
BrecklandThetford Priory5,4681,9741,20023801150603,587
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield4,1831,9653992420920462,744
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton6,0082,82362430701250633,942
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town2,0028602861040420221,314
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,3559993401310510241,545
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell3,5941,7643201660700372,357
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver1,815897147920360181,190
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande1,864909168880380201,223
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham1,569701189890330171,029
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham1,645785161840320171,079
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence1,905937162920390191,249
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph3,6031,7483221830740372,364
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalton2,0039971591000390191,314
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington1,8608082371150400201,220
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall1,590737166890340181,044
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham1,8969431451010370171,243
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey1,728801182950370181,133
 Total78,45735,5079,3144,16701,645083451,467

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Norfolk South West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Norfolk South West.

Norfolk South WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland2,2011,0022351530360171,443
BrecklandAshill56225066380904367
BrecklandBedingfield2,2691,0542361470350171,489
BrecklandForest2,2849882971580380171,498
BrecklandGuiltcross2,2269462931670380171,461
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2,2861,0512401570360171,501
BrecklandLaunditch261132000016
BrecklandNar Valley1,8988562221230300151,246
BrecklandSwaffham5,4972,4726693360870423,606
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,1244821448401909738
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,8461,5206402650640332,522
BrecklandThetford Burrell4,5071,5331,0642510720362,956
BrecklandThetford Castle4,6431,8207883200780393,045
BrecklandThetford Priory5,4681,8311,3292950880443,587
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield4,1831,8564992860700332,744
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton6,0082,6667653700950463,942
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town2,0028083331250320161,314
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,3559373961560390171,545
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell3,5941,6704042030530272,357
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver1,8158501891110270131,190
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande1,8648602121070290151,223
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham1,5696602261050250121,028
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham1,6457421991010240121,078
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence1,9058872071120300141,250
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph3,6031,6544062200560272,363
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalton2,0039452051200300141,314
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington1,8607592811340300151,219
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall1,5906952041060260131,044
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham1,8968931891200280121,242
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey1,7287562231130280131,133
 Total78,45733,45411,1644,98501,252060651,461

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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