Oxford West and Abingdon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Oxford West and Abingdon: Overview

 Prediction: LIB hold 

MP at 2019: Layla Moran  (LIB)
County/Area: Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate: 76,953
Turnout: 76.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LIB31,34053.3%42.3%
CON22,39738.1%36.8%
LAB4,2587.2%15.0%
Brexit8291.4%0.9%
Green00.0%1.4%
OTH00.0%3.6%
LIB Majority8,94315.2%Pred Maj 5.5%
Chance of
winning
LIB
62%
CON
38%
LAB
1%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Oxford West and Abingdon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Oxford West and Abingdon constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019LIBCONCON
Party Winner 2017LIBCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right11° Right
National Position13° Glo3° Nat
Social Position9° Lib1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %37%52%52%
British Identity32%29%29%
Good Health53%49%48%
UK Born82%88%87%
Good Education55%43%39%
Good Job65%56%51%
High SEC64%57%51%
Average Age48.249.148.3
ABC1 Class70%60%54%

Oxford West and Abingdon ranks #574 for "Leave", #133 for "Right", #553 for "National" and #565 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Oxford West and Abingdon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Oxford West and Abingdon

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Oxford West and Abingdon.

Oxford West and AbingdonActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellKidlington East6,726CONCON2,4329011,4101247601975,140
CherwellKidlington West6,626LIBLIB1,9717072,0191037401915,065
OxfordCarfax and Jericho2,117LABLIB5244295779220581,619
OxfordCutteslowe and Sunnymead4,834LIBLIB1,0826801,738145101303,695
OxfordOsney and St Thomas2,452LIBLIB56552268410260671,874
OxfordSummertown4,671LIBLIB1,1125961,671174901263,571
OxfordWalton Manor4,419LIBLIB1,0147181,464154601193,376
OxfordWolvercote3,945LIBLIB9264851,444134101073,016
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Abbey Northcourt4,371LIBLIB1,2784511,423234601193,340
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Caldecott5,256LIBLIB1,5446121,630325601444,018
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Dunmore4,392LIBLIB1,2903651,509274701203,358
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Fitzharris4,447LIBLIB1,2934181,496244701223,400
Vale of White HorseAbingdon Peachcroft4,925LIBLIB1,4134371,697315201353,765
Vale of White HorseBotley and Sunningwell4,733LIBLIB1,1794971,741225001293,618
Vale of White HorseCumnor4,702LIBLIB1,3883751,633205001283,594
Vale of White HorseKennington and Radley4,857LIBLIB1,4213681,701375201343,713
Vale of White HorseMarcham83CONCON28627010264
Vale of White HorseThames801CONCON3105421638022613
Vale of White HorseWootton2,594LIBCON88419778914280711,983
 Total76,951LIBLIB21,6548,81824,86953882202,12158,822

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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