Paisley and Renfrewshire South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Paisley and Renfrewshire South: Overview

 Prediction: SNP hold 

MP at 2019: Mhairi Black  (SNP)
County/Area: Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate: 64,385
Turnout: 66.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SNP21,63750.2%56.4%
LAB10,95825.4%25.8%
CON7,57117.6%13.5%
LIB2,9186.8%3.8%
OTH00.0%0.6%
SNP Majority10,67924.8%Pred Maj 30.6%
Chance of
winning
SNP
98%
LAB
2%
CON
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Paisley and Renfrewshire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Paisley and Renfrewshire South constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position34° Left23° Left
National Position18° Glo15° Glo
Social Position15° Lib13° Lib
TribeStrong Left
EU Leave %36%38%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health50%52%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job49%49%51%
High SEC52%55%51%
Average Age48.748.648.3
ABC1 Class47%50%54%

Paisley and Renfrewshire South ranks #583 for "Leave", #649 for "Right", #586 for "National" and #610 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Paisley and Renfrewshire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Paisley and Renfrewshire South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Paisley and Renfrewshire South.

Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RenfrewshireBishopton, Bridge of Weir and Langbank23SNPSNP5210070015
RenfrewshireHouston, Crosslee and Linwood159SNPSNP23243005601107
RenfrewshireJohnstone North, Kilbarchan, Howwood and Lochwinnoch11,546SNPSNP1,2612,059224004,1380447,726
RenfrewshireJohnstone South and Elderslie11,563SNPSNP1,1262,123199004,2480417,737
RenfrewshirePaisley East and Central9,391SNPSNP7611,714190003,5870316,283
RenfrewshirePaisley Northeast and Ralston3,297SNPSNP379460130001,2190172,205
RenfrewshirePaisley Northwest7,550SNPSNP5091,429127002,9670215,053
RenfrewshirePaisley Southeast9,237SNPSNP8711,535197003,5430356,181
RenfrewshirePaisley Southwest11,618SNPSNP8871,761549004,5200587,775
 Total64,384SNPSNP5,82211,1071,6200024,285024843,082

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (24-Jul-2020 19:51, Py3L, sc3005)