Rayleigh and Wickford: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Rayleigh and Wickford: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Mark Francois  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 78,959
Turnout: 69.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON39,86472.6%71.3%
LAB8,86416.1%19.2%
LIB4,1717.6%3.8%
Green2,0023.6%4.2%
OTH00.0%1.4%
CON Majority31,00056.5%Pred Maj 52.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Rayleigh and Wickford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Rayleigh and Wickford constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position17° Right9° Right
National Position20° Nat7° Nat
Social Position9° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %66%56%52%
British Identity22%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%89%87%
Good Education32%37%39%
Good Job57%52%51%
High SEC59%53%51%
Average Age51.249.348.3
ABC1 Class61%55%54%

Rayleigh and Wickford ranks #56 for "Leave", #18 for "Right", #10 for "National" and #38 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Rayleigh and Wickford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Rayleigh and Wickford

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Rayleigh and Wickford.

Rayleigh and WickfordActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BasildonWickford Castledon6,419CONCON3,27588312001360504,464
BasildonWickford North10,417CONCON5,1621,59218302320777,246
BasildonWickford Park7,423CONCON3,81794915301820615,162
RochfordDownhall and Rawreth5,137CONCON2,40768525901360853,572
RochfordHawkwell East4,842CONCON2,4177099101130383,368
RochfordHawkwell West5,134CONCON2,7895458001220353,571
RochfordHockley5,170CONCON2,7805619601190403,596
RochfordHockley and Ashingdon5,273CONCON2,51865426901380883,667
RochfordHullbridge5,477CONCON2,7535489203770393,809
RochfordLodge5,308CONCON2,77464210701250433,691
RochfordRoche North and Rural2,723CONCON1,194575440620191,894
RochfordSweyne Park and Grange5,053CONCON2,24281125001290833,515
RochfordTrinity5,475CONCON2,52263824603190833,808
RochfordWheatley5,079CONCON2,51775410401150423,532
 Total78,930CONCON39,16710,5462,09402,305078354,895

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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