Ribble Valley: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ribble Valley: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Nigel Evans  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 79,247
Turnout: 69.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,34660.3%58.9%
LAB14,90727.0%30.3%
LIB4,7768.6%4.5%
Green1,7043.1%3.7%
OTH5511.0%2.6%
CON Majority18,43933.4%Pred Maj 28.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
96%
LAB
4%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Ribble Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Ribble Valley constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position10° Right4° Left
National Position8° Nat1° Nat
Social Position5° Con2° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %58%54%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born96%92%87%
Good Education43%37%39%
Good Job54%49%51%
High SEC57%48%51%
Average Age50.948.548.3
ABC1 Class57%50%54%

Ribble Valley ranks #221 for "Leave", #183 for "Right", #190 for "National" and #173 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ribble Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ribble Valley

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ribble Valley.

Ribble ValleyActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Ribble ValleyAlston and Hothersall2,053CONCON909402390460341,430
Ribble ValleyBillington and Langho2,646CONCON1,224484480610301,847
Ribble ValleyBowland1,255CONCON69212616026016876
Ribble ValleyBrockhall and Dinckley1,277CONCON65916018029025891
Ribble ValleyChatburn1,136CONCON55314819051022793
Ribble ValleyChipping1,146CONCON59614319024017799
Ribble ValleyClayton-le-Dale and Salesbury1,344CONCON70916125027016938
Ribble ValleyDerby and Thornley2,357CONCON990526460520301,644
Ribble ValleyDilworth2,147CONCON920456440500271,497
Ribble ValleyEast Whalley, Read and Simonstone2,211CONCON1,127297440500261,544
Ribble ValleyEdisford and Low Moor2,669CONCON8686771660860641,861
Ribble ValleyGisburn and Rimington1,162CONCON53521419027016811
Ribble ValleyHurst Green and Whitewell1,067CONCON47019827026024745
Ribble ValleyLittlemoor2,394CONCON7985651620800651,670
Ribble ValleyMellor2,348CONCON1,0693301250620521,638
Ribble ValleyPrimrose2,439CONCON7596351590820671,702
Ribble ValleyRibchester1,276CONCON55326527032015892
Ribble ValleySabden1,213CONCON52025625031015847
Ribble ValleySalthill2,588CONCON9295671590890611,805
Ribble ValleySt Mary's2,380CONCON8405111670790631,660
Ribble ValleyWaddington, Bashall Eaves and Mitton1,240CONCON54518169033037865
Ribble ValleyWest Bradford and Grindleton1,359CONCON62718471036031949
Ribble ValleyWhalley Nethertown1,137CONCON48220255032023794
Ribble ValleyWhalley and Painter Wood2,345CONCON1,052433630550321,635
Ribble ValleyWilpshire and Ramsgreave2,791CONCON1,254528550650461,948
Ribble ValleyWiswell and Barrow1,591CONCON698227400850611,111
South RibbleBamber Bridge East3,482CONLAB1,1141,137630740412,429
South RibbleBamber Bridge West3,125CONCON1,0111,002610680392,181
South RibbleCoupe Green and Gregson Lane3,508CONCON1,503755690790422,448
South RibbleFarington East2,733CONCON9956991020650471,908
South RibbleFarington West3,201CONCON1,3596341000820592,234
South RibbleLostock Hall5,215CONCON1,8521,41715801320813,640
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East190CONCON922680504135
South RibbleSamlesbury and Walton3,320CONCON1,579565600740382,316
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale East3,483CONCON1,329894690710682,431
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale West3,417CONCON1,376775670770882,383
 Total79,245CONCON32,58816,7802,46402,04301,42255,297

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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