Rochester and Strood: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Rochester and Strood: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Kelly Tolhurst  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 82,056
Turnout: 63.3%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,15160.0%58.7%
LAB14,07927.1%30.3%
LIB3,7177.2%3.2%
OTH1,6673.2%4.7%
Green1,3122.5%3.1%
CON Majority17,07232.9%Pred Maj 28.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
96%
LAB
4%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Rochester and Strood : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Rochester and Strood constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right11° Right
National Position16° Nat3° Nat
Social Position7° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %65%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health46%49%48%
UK Born91%88%87%
Good Education33%43%39%
Good Job50%56%51%
High SEC49%57%51%
Average Age47.349.148.3
ABC1 Class51%60%54%

Rochester and Strood ranks #66 for "Leave", #155 for "Right", #35 for "National" and #89 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Rochester and Strood: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Rochester and Strood

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Rochester and Strood.

Rochester and StroodActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MedwayCuxton and Halling5,148CONCON2,31660581010201543,258
MedwayPeninsula11,751CONCON4,9451,606207026004187,436
MedwayRiver6,609CONCON2,2091,494195014101444,183
MedwayRochester East7,376CONCON2,1242,096144016801364,668
MedwayRochester South and Horsted10,322CONCON3,9231,897297019102246,532
MedwayRochester West7,595CONCON2,6521,584213016401944,807
MedwayStrood North10,357CONCON3,5342,291162018503816,553
MedwayStrood Rural11,756CONCON4,9821,659201020403937,439
MedwayStrood South11,142CONCON3,8092,489173019303877,051
 Total82,056CONCON30,49415,7211,67301,60802,43151,927

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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