Romsey and Southampton North: Seat Details

Romsey and Southampton North: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Caroline Nokes  (CON)
County/Area:Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:68,228
Turnout:75.3%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON27,86254.2%46.5%
LIB16,99033.1%27.2%
LAB5,89811.5%17.4%
OTH6401.2%4.5%
Green00.0%4.4%
CON Majority10,87221.2%19.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
90%
LIB
9%
LAB
1%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Romsey and Southampton North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Romsey and Southampton North constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right11° Right
National Position2° Glo3° Nat
Social Position3° Lib1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %46%52%52%
British Identity31%29%29%
Good Health51%49%48%
UK Born87%88%87%
Good Education50%43%39%
Good Job60%56%51%
High SEC60%57%51%
Average Age48.649.148.3
ABC1 Class65%60%54%
Average House Price£396,450£413,307£309,875

Romsey and Southampton North ranks #467 for "Leave", #35 for "Right", #439 for "National" and #483 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Romsey and Southampton North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Romsey and Southampton North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Romsey and Southampton North.

Romsey and Southampton NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SouthamptonBassett10,123CONCON2,9311,9112,152033902937,626
SouthamptonSwaythling8,450CONLAB2,2562,4831,060028302836,365
Test ValleyAmpfield and Braishfield2,192CONCON8921634390730831,650
Test ValleyAnna208CONCON100172307011158
Test ValleyBlackwater4,918CONCON2,309511486016002393,705
Test ValleyChilworth, Nursling and Rownhams6,049CONCON2,6525261,003020201734,556
Test ValleyHarewood2,683CONCON1,33920226608701262,020
Test ValleyMid Test7,286CONCON3,393615976024402615,489
Test ValleyNorth Baddesley5,871CONCON1,7875521,716019601694,420
Test ValleyRomsey Abbey4,860CONCON1,4594861,409016301423,659
Test ValleyRomsey Cupernham6,206CONCON1,9166391,656020802554,674
Test ValleyRomsey Tadburn4,669CONCON1,4354341,358015601353,518
Test ValleyValley Park4,713CONLIB1,4104271,413015801423,550
 Total68,228CONCON23,8798,96613,95702,27602,31251,390

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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