Rushcliffe: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Rushcliffe: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Ruth Edwards  (CON)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 77,055
Turnout: 78.5%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,76547.5%46.3%
LAB21,12234.9%39.7%
LIB9,60015.9%9.2%
OTH1,0181.7%3.9%
Green00.0%0.9%
CON Majority7,64312.6%Pred Maj 6.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
67%
LAB
33%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Rushcliffe : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Rushcliffe constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right4° Right
National Position7° Glo7° Nat
Social Position5° Lib4° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %41%59%52%
British Identity32%27%29%
Good Health52%45%48%
UK Born93%90%87%
Good Education53%37%39%
Good Job67%48%51%
High SEC68%47%51%
Average Age50.348.948.3
ABC1 Class71%50%54%

Rushcliffe ranks #532 for "Leave", #182 for "Right", #500 for "National" and #514 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Rushcliffe: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Rushcliffe

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Rushcliffe.

RushcliffeActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RushcliffeAbbey4,247LABLAB1,3161,56431703201063,335
RushcliffeBunny2,012CONCON945456990110711,582
RushcliffeCompton Acres4,139CONCON1,7011,1852510260883,251
RushcliffeCotgrave6,202CONLAB2,0792,25529103202154,872
RushcliffeCropwell2,065CONCON894582920100431,621
RushcliffeEast Bridgford800CONCON3592133704015628
RushcliffeEdwalton3,651CONCON1,4609932890290962,867
RushcliffeGamston North1,929CONCON7475541490150501,515
RushcliffeGamston South1,949CONCON6706651290130541,531
RushcliffeGotham2,034CONCON823636910100391,599
RushcliffeKeyworth and Wolds6,561CONCON2,5521,59862305703225,152
RushcliffeLady Bay3,932LABLAB1,1331,48831403201203,087
RushcliffeLeake6,854CONCON2,6431,90546004703265,381
RushcliffeLutterell4,192LABLAB1,2331,64528302901013,291
RushcliffeMusters3,512CONLAB9221,0236830310992,758
RushcliffeNevile and Langar2,285CONCON1,178458990110481,794
RushcliffeRadcliffe on Trent6,554CONCON2,6091,85946204701715,148
RushcliffeRuddington5,872CONLAB1,9482,17532603501284,612
RushcliffeSutton Bonington1,451CONCON5074381390130431,140
RushcliffeThoroton369CONCON19075150208290
RushcliffeTollerton2,058CONCON994458860100691,617
RushcliffeTrent Bridge4,378LABLAB1,1021,82631203201673,439
 Total77,046CONCON28,00524,0515,547052802,37960,510

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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