St Austell and Newquay: Seat Details

St Austell and Newquay: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Steve Double  (CON)
County/Area:Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:79,930
Turnout:69.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON31,27356.1%49.6%
LAB14,74726.4%28.9%
LIB5,86110.5%6.5%
OTH2,2864.1%6.3%
Green1,6092.9%8.1%
Reform00.0%0.5%
CON Majority16,52629.6%20.8%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
91%
LAB
9%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%

St Austell and Newquay : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the St Austell and Newquay constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right7° Right
National Position13° Nat4° Nat
Social Position3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %63%53%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%87%
Good Education33%41%39%
Good Job42%50%51%
High SEC43%52%51%
Average Age51.550.448.3
ABC1 Class43%54%54%
Average House Price£264,828£314,032£309,875

St Austell and Newquay ranks #107 for "Leave", #252 for "Right", #83 for "National" and #252 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

St Austell and Newquay: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for St Austell and Newquay

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of St Austell and Newquay.

St Austell and NewquayActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallFowey, Tywardreath and Par4,608CONCON1,6827992511826402013,215
CornwallMevagissey and St Austell Bay4,564CONCON1,8687011881623001823,185
CornwallNewquay Central and Pentire5,168CONCON1,5711,0792942146101803,606
CornwallNewquay Porth and Tretherras4,760CONCON1,7138852401826202033,321
CornwallNewquay Trenance5,303CONCON1,7801,0962732030402283,701
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa4,568CONCON1,5469262061725402383,187
CornwallRoche and Bugle4,650CONCON1,6061,0331401523302193,246
CornwallSt Austell Bethel and Holmbush5,359CONCON1,7811,0753132230302453,739
CornwallSt Austell Central and Gover5,186CONCON1,6491,1452101833502643,621
CornwallSt Austell Poltair and Mount Charles4,941CONCON1,4761,1663072128701913,448
CornwallSt Blazey5,188CONCON1,6851,1832842028901603,621
CornwallSt Columb Major, St Mawgan and St Wenn4,687CONCON1,7629121381523002143,271
CornwallSt Columb Minor and Colan4,181CONCON1,5067922021622301782,917
CornwallSt Dennis and St Enoder5,583CONCON1,9841,1821341726203173,896
CornwallSt Goran, Tregony and the Roseland1,140CONCON44219734456061794
CornwallSt Mewan and Grampound4,277CONCON1,6547072001622401832,984
CornwallSt Newlyn East, Cubert and Goonhavern687CONCON25411935338030479
CornwallSt Stephen-in-Brannel5,079CONCON1,7231,0961991826802393,543
 Total79,929CONCON27,68216,0933,6482954,52303,53355,774

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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