St Austell and Newquay: Seat Details

St Austell and Newquay: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Steve Double  (CON)
County/Area:Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:79,930
Turnout:69.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON31,27356.1%31.7%
LAB14,74726.4%35.7%
LIB5,86110.5%14.1%
OTH2,2864.1%0.0%
Green1,6092.9%5.9%
Reform00.0%12.5%
CON Majority16,52629.6%4.0%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
38%
LAB
61%
LIB
1%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%

St Austell and Newquay : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the St Austell and Newquay constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right8° Right
National Position13° Nat4° Nat
Social Position3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %63%53%52%
Average Age52.651.649.5
Good Education46%52%49%
Employed55%57%58%
Homeowner68%68%63%
Car owner86%84%77%
Married46%47%45%
Ethnic White97%93%83%
Christian47%49%50%
ABC1 Class48%58%56%
Gross Household Income£36,753£41,731£42,397
Deprivation55%50%52%
Average House Price£264,828£311,706£313,528

St Austell and Newquay ranks #107 for "Leave", #252 for "Economic Right Position", #83 for "National Position" and #252 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

St Austell and Newquay: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for St Austell and Newquay

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of St Austell and Newquay.

St Austell and NewquayActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallFowey, Tywardreath and Par4,677CONCON1,015863471344186002,879
CornwallMevagissey and St Austell Bay4,364CONCON1,096831322330136002,715
CornwallNewquay Central and Pentire5,091CONLAB8211,049513342233002,958
CornwallNewquay Porth and Tretherras4,836CONCON1,029938445355170002,937
CornwallNewquay Trenance5,248CONLAB8911,084497357175003,004
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa4,775CONLAB818974344333151002,620
CornwallRoche and Bugle4,610CONLAB699980354327132002,492
CornwallSt Austell Bethel and Holmbush5,372CONCON1,1611,065420401187003,234
CornwallSt Austell Central and Gover5,197CONLAB8521,240324381188002,985
CornwallSt Austell Poltair and Mount Charles5,034CONLAB7591,149421346187002,862
CornwallSt Blazey5,174CONLAB8081,089427347166002,837
CornwallSt Columb Major, St Mawgan and St Wenn4,675CONLAB805989466369164002,793
CornwallSt Columb Minor and Colan4,043CONLAB797850231305134002,317
CornwallSt Dennis and St Enoder5,824CONLAB9311,292380432176003,211
CornwallSt Goran, Tregony and the Roseland1,091CONLAB23426694945700745
CornwallSt Mewan and Grampound4,257CONCON979798332320126002,555
CornwallSt Newlyn East, Cubert and Goonhavern565CONLAB11313939422500358
CornwallSt Stephen-in-Brannel5,097CONLAB898965452369148002,832
 Total79,930CONLAB14,70616,5616,5325,7942,7410046,334

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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