St Austell and Newquay: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

St Austell and Newquay: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Steve Double  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 79,930
Turnout: 69.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,27356.1%52.3%
LAB14,74726.4%21.3%
LIB5,86110.5%22.6%
OTH2,2864.1%1.2%
Green1,6092.9%2.5%
CON Majority16,52629.6%Pred Maj 29.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
90%
LAB
4%
LIB
6%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

St Austell and Newquay : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the St Austell and Newquay constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right8° Right
National Position13° Nat4° Nat
Social Position3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %63%53%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education33%40%39%
Good Job42%50%51%
High SEC43%52%51%
Average Age51.550.548.5
ABC1 Class43%54%54%

St Austell and Newquay ranks #107 for "Leave", #252 for "Right", #83 for "National" and #252 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

St Austell and Newquay: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

St Austell and Newquay: Ward-by-ward

Workings for St Austell and Newquay

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of St Austell and Newquay at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of St Austell and Newquay. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

St Austell and NewquayActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
CornwallBugle201322611431600291
CornwallFowey and Tywardreath2013329049000477
CornwallMevagissey2013316391184363620
CornwallMount Charles20132211025600465
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern2013555118000529
CornwallNewquay Central20130026700244
CornwallNewquay Pentire20132800516000
CornwallNewquay Treloggan20133270384000
CornwallNewquay Tretherras2013292026926000
CornwallNewquay Treviglas201323715621826600
CornwallPar and St Blazey Gate2013279035500263
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa2013165029500356
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound20131384202830903
CornwallRoche2013670000784
CornwallRoseland20132524201750976
CornwallSt Austell Bay2013582129000546
CornwallSt Austell Bethel20131941152761730264
CornwallSt Austell Gover2013290126000475
CornwallSt Austell Poltair201323216832500187
CornwallSt Blazey201310518631000172
CornwallSt Columb Major20132047719300586
CornwallSt Dennis and Nanpean2013430000672
CornwallSt Enoder201300000960
CornwallSt Mawgan and Colan20135880000185
CornwallSt Mewan2013323031200367
CornwallSt Stephen-In-Brannel20130003310636

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

St Austell and NewquayEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle2,8461,0804982640600841,986
CornwallFowey and Tywardreath3,4971,29056341007501022,440
CornwallMevagissey3,2671,2696561930660962,280
CornwallMount Charles3,7571,48477918507201022,622
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern64627510142013019450
CornwallNewquay Central3,1231,0196753170720962,179
CornwallNewquay Pentire3,2501,1695943390700962,268
CornwallNewquay Treloggan3,3821,29060928907101002,359
CornwallNewquay Tretherras2,8831,1554792330600852,012
CornwallNewquay Treviglas3,3441,2656782220690992,333
CornwallPar and St Blazey Gate3,0681,1845192840630902,140
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa3,6661,35565835907801082,558
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound5562259937011016388
CornwallRoche3,1081,3125781450540802,169
CornwallRoseland8333146020257
CornwallSt Austell Bay3,4891,51654120806901012,435
CornwallSt Austell Bethel3,8101,48068330707801122,660
CornwallSt Austell Gover3,6561,42276418707501042,552
CornwallSt Austell Poltair3,4301,23968929307101012,393
CornwallSt Blazey3,7211,31279629907801122,597
CornwallSt Columb Major4,0881,62075028108301202,854
CornwallSt Dennis and Nanpean3,7481,5227501760690972,614
CornwallSt Enoder3,6571,52967118306901002,552
CornwallSt Mawgan and Colan2,8531,3193911470550791,991
CornwallSt Mewan3,0701,2464652810610892,142
CornwallSt Stephen-In-Brannel3,9311,6667431720660962,743
 Total79,92931,27614,7435,85901,61002,28655,774

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for St Austell and Newquay

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of St Austell and Newquay.

St Austell and NewquayPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle2,8461,0063965070530241,986
CornwallFowey and Tywardreath3,4971,1994387080660292,440
CornwallMevagissey3,2671,1845394720580272,280
CornwallMount Charles3,7571,3866454990640292,623
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern646258789701105449
CornwallNewquay Central3,1239375645870640272,179
CornwallNewquay Pentire3,2501,0844786170620272,268
CornwallNewquay Treloggan3,3821,2024885780630282,359
CornwallNewquay Tretherras2,8831,0803764790530242,012
CornwallNewquay Treviglas3,3441,1785595080610282,334
CornwallPar and St Blazey Gate3,0681,1044105460560252,141
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa3,6661,2595276720690312,558
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound556210798401005388
CornwallRoche3,1081,2314674010480232,170
CornwallRoseland83311113020158
CornwallSt Austell Bay3,4891,4254165040610292,435
CornwallSt Austell Bethel3,8101,3805476320690322,660
CornwallSt Austell Gover3,6561,3266334960660292,550
CornwallSt Austell Poltair3,4301,1495675860630292,394
CornwallSt Blazey3,7211,2156636190690322,598
CornwallSt Columb Major4,0881,5136046300730342,854
CornwallSt Dennis and Nanpean3,7481,4246164850610272,613
CornwallSt Enoder3,6571,4335404890610282,551
CornwallSt Mawgan and Colan2,8531,2442913850490221,991
CornwallSt Mewan3,0701,1663555420540252,142
CornwallSt Stephen-In-Brannel3,9311,5636034920580272,743
 Total79,92929,18711,89012,62801,424064755,776

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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