St Austell and Newquay: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

St Austell and Newquay: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Steve Double  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 79,930
Turnout: 69.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,27356.1%54.8%
LAB14,74726.4%30.7%
LIB5,86110.5%4.7%
OTH2,2864.1%6.1%
Green1,6092.9%3.7%
CON Majority16,52629.6%Pred Maj 24.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
93%
LAB
7%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

St Austell and Newquay : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the St Austell and Newquay constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right7° Right
National Position13° Nat4° Nat
Social Position3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %63%53%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%87%
Good Education33%41%39%
Good Job42%50%51%
High SEC43%52%51%
Average Age51.550.448.3
ABC1 Class43%54%54%

St Austell and Newquay ranks #107 for "Leave", #252 for "Right", #83 for "National" and #252 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

St Austell and Newquay: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for St Austell and Newquay

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of St Austell and Newquay.

St Austell and NewquayActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle2,521CONCON9255599606401161,760
CornwallFowey and Tywardreath3,416CONCON1,35865213508701532,385
CornwallMevagissey3,413CONCON1,590541880680942,381
CornwallMount Charles3,698CONCON1,36483612708701672,581
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern645CONCON26112122016029449
CornwallNewquay Central3,072CONCON926771149019401032,143
CornwallNewquay Pentire3,398CONCON1,32870914108801062,372
CornwallNewquay Treloggan3,218CONCON1,17472111907801532,245
CornwallNewquay Tretherras3,151CONCON1,26463010007501292,198
CornwallNewquay Treviglas3,138CONCON1,10672216507901172,189
CornwallPar and St Blazey Gate3,328CONCON1,22377614007801062,323
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa3,716CONCON1,40880810409301802,593
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound664CONCON26413416016033463
CornwallRoche3,190CONCON1,2416995506901622,226
CornwallRoseland62CONCON25121010443
CornwallSt Austell Bay3,855CONCON1,60269812108301852,689
CornwallSt Austell Bethel3,690CONCON1,26885517209201882,575
CornwallSt Austell Gover3,313CONCON1,13077785015101692,312
CornwallSt Austell Poltair3,400CONCON1,10791615808101132,375
CornwallSt Blazey3,091CONCON1,1127721120710902,157
CornwallSt Columb Major3,814CONCON1,4918267708601812,661
CornwallSt Dennis and Nanpean3,405CONCON1,2827685307102022,376
CornwallSt Enoder3,715CONCON1,4587856708002022,592
CornwallSt Mawgan and Colan4,086CONCON1,8486868308001542,851
CornwallSt Mewan3,152CONCON1,37354711106701012,199
CornwallSt Stephen-In-Brannel3,782CONCON1,43582911808901682,639
 Total79,933CONCON30,56317,1502,61502,04403,40555,777

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (24-Jul-2020 19:51, Py3L, sc626)