St Ives: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

St Ives: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Derek Thomas  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 68,795
Turnout: 74.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON25,36549.3%43.7%
LIB21,08141.0%30.9%
LAB3,5536.9%15.3%
Green9541.9%4.4%
OTH4460.9%5.2%
Brexit00.0%0.5%
CON Majority4,2848.3%Pred Maj 12.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
80%
LIB
18%
LAB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Brexit
0%

St Ives : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the St Ives constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position3° Right7° Right
National Position5° Nat4° Nat
Social Position1° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%92%87%
Good Education39%41%39%
Good Job46%50%51%
High SEC48%52%51%
Average Age53.150.448.3
ABC1 Class47%54%54%

St Ives ranks #344 for "Leave", #290 for "Right", #279 for "National" and #447 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

St Ives: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for St Ives

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of St Ives.

St IvesActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBreage, Germoe and Sithney3,874CONCON1,5893036661416501582,895
CornwallCrowan and Wendron2,548CONCON94028050097101061,906
CornwallGulval and Heamoor3,383LIBLIB7844431,087128701142,527
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth1,212CONCON493110216434049906
CornwallHelston North3,787CONCON1,3623358681410401492,832
CornwallHelston South4,102LIBCON1,2573921,1521510101503,067
CornwallLelant and Carbis Bay3,155CONCON1,259271615118401182,358
CornwallLudgvan3,486CONCON1,2093767251315501282,606
CornwallMarazion and Perranuthnoe3,872CONCON1,3443209851410101302,894
CornwallMullion and Grade-Ruan3,568CONCON1,2502998031316801342,667
CornwallNewlyn and Mousehole3,438CONCON1,1294237821210001242,570
CornwallPenzance Central3,260LIBCON837593776129801222,438
CornwallPenzance East3,351LIBCON8406267361216601242,504
CornwallPenzance Promenade3,162CONCON8895316751112501302,361
CornwallPorthleven and Helston West3,561CONCON1,2183568321310201392,660
CornwallSt Buryan3,790CONCON1,1884239481410801532,834
CornwallSt Ives East2,794CONCON993325540101240952,087
CornwallSt Ives West3,292CONCON961540728129501232,459
CornwallSt Just In Penwith3,919LIBLIB9354951,2301412301312,928
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage3,661CONCON1,481296643139302112,737
Isles of ScillyBryher73LIBCON22720020354
Isles of ScillySt Agnes67LIBCON20519020349
Isles of ScillySt Martin's108CONCON351028040582
Isles of ScillySt Mary's1,252CONCON393125317540056936
Isles of ScillyTresco78CONCON25818030559
 Total68,793CONCON22,4537,89215,9092472,25502,66051,416

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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