Staffordshire Moorlands: Seat Details

Staffordshire Moorlands: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Karen Bradley  (CON)
County/Area:Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:65,485
Turnout:66.7%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON28,19264.6%58.1%
LAB11,76426.9%28.8%
LIB2,4695.7%4.0%
Green1,2312.8%6.9%
Reform00.0%0.4%
OTH00.0%1.7%
CON Majority16,42837.6%29.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
97%
LAB
3%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%
OTH
0%

Staffordshire Moorlands : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Staffordshire Moorlands constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right3° Right
National Position15° Nat7° Nat
Social Position9° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %64%59%52%
British Identity25%29%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born98%89%87%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job48%48%51%
High SEC48%46%51%
Average Age52.148.648.3
ABC1 Class49%49%54%
Average House Price£211,744£235,222£309,875

Staffordshire Moorlands ranks #83 for "Leave", #192 for "Right", #48 for "National" and #46 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Staffordshire Moorlands: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Staffordshire Moorlands

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Staffordshire Moorlands.

Staffordshire MoorlandsActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeNewchapel and Mow Cop2,922CONCON1,0806685171110321,949
Staffordshire MoorlandsAlton1,213CONCON52520321343013808
Staffordshire MoorlandsBagnall and Stanley1,447CONCON69015624477016967
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph East4,732CONLAB1,3831,45780121720513,155
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph Moor1,447CONCON66019434457016965
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph North4,729CONCON1,93378193122810523,152
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph South1,470CONCON56224584564021981
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph West4,300CONCON1,71884781111640472,868
Staffordshire MoorlandsBrown Edge and Endon4,153CONCON1,689529225142510582,766
Staffordshire MoorlandsCaverswall1,506CONCON717192234510161,003
Staffordshire MoorlandsCellarhead2,732CONCON1,2633314771450301,823
Staffordshire MoorlandsCheddleton4,589CONCON1,742908153131870563,059
Staffordshire MoorlandsChurnet2,763CONCON1,2813715071040301,843
Staffordshire MoorlandsDane1,386CONCON64416222379015925
Staffordshire MoorlandsHamps Valley1,559CONCON754186254550171,041
Staffordshire MoorlandsHorton1,647CONCON741234344670181,098
Staffordshire MoorlandsIpstones1,582CONCON716226304620171,055
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek East4,146CONCON1,414939165121800532,763
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek North4,354CONLAB1,2701,33583111570482,904
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek South4,676CONCON1,3511,265165142650583,118
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek West3,808CONCON1,286832140112220482,539
Staffordshire MoorlandsManifold1,581CONCON679199785710221,054
Staffordshire MoorlandsWerrington2,742CONCON1,2723314371460291,828
 Total65,484CONCON25,37012,5911,7511783,011076343,664

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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