Stoke-on-Trent Central: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Stoke-on-Trent Central: Overview

 Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP at 2019: Jo Gideon  (CON)
County/Area: Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 55,424
Turnout: 57.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON14,55745.4%44.1%
LAB13,88743.3%46.1%
Brexit1,6915.3%3.4%
LIB1,1163.5%2.0%
Green8192.6%3.1%
OTH00.0%1.3%
CON Majority6702.1%Pred Maj 2.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
46%
LAB
54%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Stoke-on-Trent Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Stoke-on-Trent Central constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position6° Left3° Right
National Position8° Nat7° Nat
Social Position4° Con6° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %68%59%52%
British Identity25%29%29%
Good Health42%45%48%
UK Born88%89%87%
Good Education31%36%39%
Good Job36%48%51%
High SEC33%46%51%
Average Age45.748.648.3
ABC1 Class39%49%54%

Stoke-on-Trent Central ranks #34 for "Leave", #429 for "Right", #186 for "National" and #206 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stoke-on-Trent Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Stoke-on-Trent Central

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central.

Stoke-on-Trent CentralActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend7,090CONLAB1,8281,93865135860494,101
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton3,664CONCON1,3356143964420262,120
Stoke-on-TrentBentilee and Ubberley6,898LABLAB1,4731,96862326850773,991
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park7,316CONCON2,1411,726881251010534,234
Stoke-on-TrentBoothen and Oak Hill3,959LABLAB9421,08953571230282,292
Stoke-on-TrentEaton Park3,465CONCON1,1366974365370262,004
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley2,533LABLAB5168522132300151,466
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant124CONCON37271320171
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham4CONCON20000002
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton2,253LABLAB4357642825400141,306
Stoke-on-TrentHartshill and Basford4,470LABLAB1,0191,3436560680322,587
Stoke-on-TrentJoiner's Square3,741LABLAB7731,2293255500232,162
Stoke-on-TrentPenkhull and Stoke4,602CONLAB1,1441,18773661590352,664
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green852CONCON23621510161206495
Stoke-on-TrentSpringfields and Trent Vale4,447CONLAB1,1291,13558721480322,574
 Total55,418CONLAB14,14614,7846381,101983041732,069

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (13-Aug-2020 10:51, Py3L, sc1866)