Strangford: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Strangford: Overview

 Predicted winner: DUP 
 Acual winner: DUP 

MP at 2019: Jim Shannon  (DUP)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 66,928
Turnout: 56.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP17,70547.2%53.7%
Alliance10,63428.4%18.2%
UUP4,02310.7%12.3%
SDLP1,9945.3%7.6%
OTH1,7844.8%5.2%
Green7902.1%1.2%
SF5551.5%1.9%
DUP Majority7,07118.9%Pred Maj 35.4%
Chance of
winning
DUP
100%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
SF
0%

Strangford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Strangford constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %56%44%52%
British Identity57%40%29%
Good Health46%48%48%
UK Born96%93%88%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job51%47%51%
High SEC63%57%51%
Average Age49.147.248.4
ABC1 Class50%45%53%

Strangford ranks #272 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Strangford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Strangford: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Strangford

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Strangford at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Strangford. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

StrangfordActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East20141552243312350140166
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken20141143272183050143106
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh20141490512111650185
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch2014313255378670188243
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh2014327317324960191202
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2014376278365960109150
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore201440920544981041132
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2014392266380170022121
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2014315056014600356
North Down and ArdsBallywalter20142741597141140363
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore20142551496521240252
North Down and ArdsComber North2014268052110400367
North Down and ArdsComber South2014261045917500300
North Down and ArdsComber West2014260046718800311
North Down and ArdsConway Square2014127040914100499
North Down and ArdsCronstown2014220045716700422
North Down and ArdsGlen2014192041717000401
North Down and ArdsGregstown2014177036110300332
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2014265041920100250
North Down and ArdsKircubbin20141693885039101159
North Down and ArdsLoughries20141991445661250254
North Down and ArdsMovilla2014137042016400490
North Down and ArdsPortaferry20141094043094402612
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2014193142665880796
North Down and ArdsScrabo2014216038415400312
North Down and ArdsWest Winds2014165044713300490

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

StrangfordEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East42414198990510011238
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1854836443405104
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,06580436253192370591,156
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,16520214176545543740931,773
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,9601298646329127450571,098
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,58821610957438435560741,448
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,88927511866341636270841,619
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,96325612063051935150841,659
North Down and ArdsBallygowan3,0612576382544734110761,713
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,24615510897644437100881,818
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,144102716293092570571,200
North Down and ArdsComber North2,8002235880337132100711,568
North Down and ArdsComber South2,6542035566845430100671,487
North Down and ArdsComber West2,7252005668347930100681,526
North Down and ArdsConway Square3,0891156788853035130831,731
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,3222057088356838130851,862
North Down and ArdsGlen3,0961716581455935120791,735
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,5531745470539129100671,430
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,523203525864742980621,414
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,12211214381448041770821,749
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,4656052422225175040821
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,1771216988457436130841,781
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,7608514071042337770741,546
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,9121119892037933100791,630
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,7972065869949231110701,567
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,2421437095051836130861,816
 Total66,9274,0221,99317,70410,63579255801,78537,489

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Strangford

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Strangford.

StrangfordPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East42428311470413016239
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken18511146402507103
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,06512887832016160761,155
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,1652712041,0620308701181,772
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,960173126653019530731,097
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,588274162824025670951,447
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,8893381769340253901071,619
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,9633341929660253001121,659
North Down and ArdsBallygowan3,0613251251,1150242401001,713
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,2462221701,2650262301121,818
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,144149114830018160741,201
North Down and ArdsComber North2,8002791091,045022210911,567
North Down and ArdsComber South2,654272118962021230921,488
North Down and ArdsComber West2,725272122993021240941,526
North Down and ArdsConway Square3,0891951401,2310252801121,731
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,3222911481,2510272901161,862
North Down and ArdsGlen3,0962551421,1750252801101,735
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,553233108959020210881,429
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,523274117892020220881,413
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,1221852101,1260299101081,749
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,465948356801212052821
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,1772081481,2550253001151,781
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,760149199985026890971,545
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,9121691511,1670232101001,631
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,7972801261,017022250971,567
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,2422211421,2860252801141,816
 Total66,9275,6303,46424,604055786502,36437,484

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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