Strangford: Seat Details

Strangford: Overview

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2024:Jim Shannon  (DUP)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:74,525
Turnout:52.2%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP15,55940.0%40.0%
Alliance10,42826.8%26.8%
UUP3,94110.1%10.2%
TUV3,1438.1%8.0%
SF2,7937.2%7.1%
SDLP1,7834.6%4.6%
OTH1,2623.2%3.3%
DUP Majority5,13113.2%13.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
DUP
83%
Alliance
17%
UUP
0%
TUV
0%
SF
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%

Strangford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Strangford constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2024DUPSFLAB
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %53%44%52%
British Identity45%32%52%
Average Age51.549.349.6
Good Education47%48%51%
Employed56%56%57%
Homeowner75%69%64%
Car owner91%87%77%
Married51%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian74%81%49%
ABC1 Class53%51%56%
Average House Price£157,862£148,402£309,078

Strangford ranks #272 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Strangford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Strangford

This table shows the recent and predicted future general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Strangford. These are not local election results, which will be different.

StrangfordActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred GE
Winner
Ards and North DownBallygowan3,429DUPDUP
Ards and North DownBallywalter3,477DUPDUP
Ards and North DownCarrowdore2,447DUPDUP
Ards and North DownComber North3,014DUPDUP
Ards and North DownComber South3,025DUPDUP
Ards and North DownComber West2,951AllianceDUP
Ards and North DownConway Square2,950AllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownCronstown3,481DUPDUP
Ards and North DownGlen3,497DUPDUP
Ards and North DownGregstown2,610DUPDUP
Ards and North DownKillinchy2,995DUPDUP
Ards and North DownKircubbin3,320DUPDUP
Ards and North DownLoughries1,734MINDUP
Ards and North DownMovilla2,963DUPDUP
Ards and North DownPortaferry2,715SFSF
Ards and North DownPortavogie2,843DUPDUP
Ards and North DownScrabo3,396DUPDUP
Ards and North DownWest Winds3,000DUPDUP
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,209DUPDUP
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward735SFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh3,193DUPDUP
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy3,222DUPDUP
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness3,194SFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore3,123DUPDUP
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile833SDLPAlliance
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford3,169SFSF
 Total74,525DUPDUP

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2025.


© 2025 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (29-Apr-2025 17:03, Py3L, sc4574)