Strangford: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Strangford: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2019: Jim Shannon  (DUP)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 66,928
Turnout: 56.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP17,70547.2%47.4%
Alliance10,63428.4%28.4%
UUP4,02310.7%10.9%
SDLP1,9945.3%5.5%
OTH1,7844.8%4.4%
Green7902.1%1.7%
SF5551.5%1.6%
DUP Majority7,07118.9%Pred Maj 19.0%
Chance of
winning
DUP
90%
Alliance
9%
UUP
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
SF
0%

Strangford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Strangford constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %56%44%52%
British Identity57%40%29%
Good Health46%48%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job51%47%51%
High SEC63%57%51%
Average Age49.147.248.3
ABC1 Class50%46%53%

Strangford ranks #272 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Strangford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Strangford

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Strangford.

StrangfordActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Ards and North DownBallygowan3,198DUPDUP2642588448822110991,793
Ards and North DownBallywalter3,276DUPDUP1641691,06738626100141,836
Ards and North DownCarrowdore2,151DUPDUP105108675277247091,205
Ards and North DownComber North2,796DUPDUP2172279740614901011,566
Ards and North DownComber South2,829DUPDUP1942270652539110871,584
Ards and North DownComber West2,782DUPDUP1882269352538100811,557
Ards and North DownConway Square2,854DUPDUP12527729552301301211,597
Ards and North DownCronstown3,264DUPDUP19329825606371301261,829
Ards and North DownGlen3,256DUPDUP18329804628421301251,824
Ards and North DownGregstown2,502DUPDUP1552266243320100991,401
Ards and North DownKillinchy2,774DUPDUP1982364956939100631,551
Ards and North DownKircubbin3,088DUPDUP6820298436046530161,729
Ards and North DownLoughries1,607DUPDUP718749721319507899
Ards and North DownMovilla2,756DUPDUP12326684549361201141,544
Ards and North DownPortaferry2,624DUPDUP4719677632232820161,471
Ards and North DownPortavogie2,716DUPDUP131147954264680121,522
Ards and North DownScrabo3,200DUPDUP20327785603431301191,793
Ards and North DownWest Winds2,854DUPDUP14227740529281301201,599
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East567SDLPDUP24351329491509318
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken103SDLPAlliance372022230158
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,285DUPDUP12216699399470341,281
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,022DUPDUP2341857083856770991,694
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,720DUPDUP1131063552671245066964
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,727DUPDUP24316058139514670661,526
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,927DUPDUP3071647513255640241,640
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield3,050DUPDUP27617261853338360361,709
 Total66,928DUPDUP4,0932,05517,77510,65563161701,66437,490

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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