Strangford: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Strangford, or click here to find another new seat.

Strangford: Overview

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Jim Shannon  (DUP)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:66,928
Turnout:56.0%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP17,70547.2%47.4%
Alliance10,63428.4%28.4%
UUP4,02310.7%10.9%
SDLP1,9945.3%5.5%
OTH1,7844.8%4.4%
Green7902.1%1.7%
SF5551.5%1.6%
DUP Majority7,07118.9%19.0%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
DUP
90%
Alliance
10%
UUP
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
SF
0%

Strangford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Strangford constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %56%44%52%
British Identity48%32%52%
Average Age51.749.349.5
Good Education47%48%49%
Employed55%56%58%
Homeowner75%69%63%
Car owner91%87%77%
Married52%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian73%81%50%
ABC1 Class50%46%55%
Average House Price£159,727£148,218£309,210

Strangford ranks #272 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Strangford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Strangford

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Strangford.

StrangfordActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Ards and North DownBallygowan3,222DUPDUP2862088848922110901,806
Ards and North DownBallywalter3,267DUPDUP1461641,07639726100111,830
Ards and North DownCarrowdore2,163DUPDUP93104689288247071,212
Ards and North DownComber North2,832DUPDUP2381879840314901051,585
Ards and North DownComber South2,843DUPDUP2131970852639100761,591
Ards and North DownComber West2,773DUPDUP2041869152439100681,554
Ards and North DownConway Square2,772DUPDUP9422713541301301391,552
Ards and North DownCronstown3,271DUPDUP19724822601371301381,832
Ards and North DownGlen3,286DUPDUP18024809632431301381,839
Ards and North DownGregstown2,452DUPDUP15918641416201001091,373
Ards and North DownKillinchy2,814DUPDUP2191966057840100491,575
Ards and North DownKircubbin3,120DUPDUP342201,00537547540121,747
Ards and North DownLoughries1,652DUPDUP588951922719506923
Ards and North DownMovilla2,784DUPDUP9822698559361201321,557
Ards and North DownPortaferry2,551DUPDUP2321475631430800121,429
Ards and North DownPortavogie2,671DUPDUP11214494926967091,496
Ards and North DownScrabo3,190DUPDUP21522774594431301261,787
Ards and North DownWest Winds2,819DUPDUP12423731522281301381,579
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East562SDLPDUP17371359791507317
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken95SDLPAlliance171921230154
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,295DUPDUP11613711409470251,285
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,015DUPDUP2531946943726770941,690
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,681DUPDUP1201093362511244072944
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,825DUPDUP27017159940615700521,583
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,934DUPDUP3261677453195650191,646
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield3,040DUPDUP29517261052637350281,703
 Total66,929DUPDUP4,0912,05417,77610,65663361601,66337,489

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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