Stroud: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Stroud: Overview

 Predicted winner: LAB 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Siobhan Baillie  (CON)
County/Area: Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate: 84,536
Turnout: 78.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,58247.9%45.3%
LAB27,74242.1%46.0%
Green4,9547.5%3.8%
Brexit1,0851.6%3.3%
OTH5670.9%1.6%
CON Majority3,8405.8%Pred Maj 0.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
47%
LAB
53%
Green
0%
Brexit
0%
OTH
0%

Stroud : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Stroud constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position1° Right8° Right
National Position2° Glo4° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %46%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education44%40%39%
Good Job53%50%51%
High SEC56%52%51%
Average Age51.350.548.5
ABC1 Class56%54%54%

Stroud ranks #484 for "Leave", #334 for "Right", #442 for "National" and #475 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stroud: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Stroud: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Stroud

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Stroud at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Stroud. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

StroudActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
StroudAmberley and Woodchester2012445176001170
StroudBerkeley2014818605001610
StroudBisley20144647001203650
StroudCainscross20151,4551,89300668112
StroudCam East20151,441847003030
StroudCam West201584894403941710
StroudCentral2015362430004890
StroudChalford20151,92091904317810
StroudCoaley and Uley2014411186003840
StroudDursley20151,2821,679632000
StroudEastington and Standish2015477467001440
StroudFarmhill and Paganhill201547237601611417
StroudHardwicke2014780333002570
StroudNailsworth20151,7441,26300794196
StroudPainswick20141,00521702964070
StroudRandwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe2014151249003830
StroudRodborough201576595348505760
StroudSevern2014894359003180
StroudSlade2015273375004430
StroudStonehouse20151,4412,1680055771
StroudThe Stanleys201454144702562100
StroudThrupp201541422101257220
StroudTrinity2015267307007370
StroudUplands20153455070032623
StroudUpton St Leonards2012552132001300
StroudVale201447780001020
StroudValley20152614320068542

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

StroudEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
StroudAmberley and Woodchester1,7697484860201140121,380
StroudBerkeley3,5491,4091,0980471910222,767
StroudBisley1,7297374710231050121,348
StroudCainscross6,1782,0972,2550813430424,818
StroudCam East3,4971,4131,0510441970212,726
StroudCam West3,4051,2721,1300491820232,656
StroudCentral1,8525807160231120141,445
StroudChalford5,5742,2851,6090733410394,347
StroudCoaley and Uley1,9457915700231210121,517
StroudDursley5,6801,8862,1130733190394,430
StroudEastington and Standish1,514580484020870101,181
StroudFarmhill and Paganhill1,857684626027990121,448
StroudHardwicke4,0711,7211,1480542250263,174
StroudNailsworth5,6022,0461,8800673400374,370
StroudPainswick3,5571,5089690442280252,774
StroudRandwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe1,460499518017940111,139
StroudRodborough3,8641,2941,3860502560283,014
StroudSevern4,0531,7611,0930522300253,161
StroudSlade1,695497694022980121,323
StroudStonehouse6,5282,1792,4290853550435,091
StroudThe Stanleys3,3471,3051,0450461920222,610
StroudThrupp1,9857346460271270141,548
StroudTrinity1,8975717470221250141,479
StroudUplands1,8666027080241080131,455
StroudUpton St Leonards2,4311,0666440291420151,896
StroudVale1,583733382020900101,235
StroudValley2,0485838440251310141,597
 Total84,53631,58127,74201,0874,952056765,929

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Stroud

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Stroud.

StroudPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
StroudAmberley and Woodchester1,769712544044570231,380
StroudBerkeley3,5491,3361,202091950422,766
StroudBisley1,729702525046520231,348
StroudCainscross6,1781,9712,43901591710784,818
StroudCam East3,4971,3421,156089980412,726
StroudCam West3,4051,2021,229091910422,655
StroudCentral1,852542774048560251,445
StroudChalford5,5742,1711,78501481700734,347
StroudCoaley and Uley1,945751632049600241,516
StroudDursley5,6801,7702,28301451590724,429
StroudEastington and Standish1,514549530040430191,181
StroudFarmhill and Paganhill1,857646680050490221,447
StroudHardwicke4,0711,6381,26901051120493,173
StroudNailsworth5,6021,9312,05601421700714,370
StroudPainswick3,5571,4351,0840931140472,773
StroudRandwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe1,460469566037470201,139
StroudRodborough3,8641,2151,51401041280533,014
StroudSevern4,0531,6781,21501041150493,161
StroudSlade1,695462746044490221,323
StroudStonehouse6,5282,0462,62101671770805,091
StroudThe Stanleys3,3471,2371,147089960422,611
StroudThrupp1,985693710054630261,546
StroudTrinity1,897532810049620261,479
StroudUplands1,866564765048540241,455
StroudUpton St Leonards2,4311,016719061710291,896
StroudVale1,583701430040450191,235
StroudValley2,048541910053650271,596
 Total84,53629,85230,34102,1902,46901,06865,920

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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