Stroud: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Stroud: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Siobhan Baillie  (CON)
County/Area: Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate: 84,536
Turnout: 78.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,58247.9%46.6%
LAB27,74242.1%43.2%
Green4,9547.5%7.7%
Brexit1,0851.6%1.1%
OTH5670.9%1.4%
CON Majority3,8405.8%Pred Maj 3.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
54%
LAB
46%
Green
0%
Brexit
0%
OTH
0%

Stroud : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Stroud constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position1° Right7° Right
National Position2° Glo4° Nat
Social Position2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %46%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born95%92%87%
Good Education44%41%39%
Good Job53%50%51%
High SEC56%52%51%
Average Age51.350.448.3
ABC1 Class56%54%54%

Stroud ranks #484 for "Leave", #334 for "Right", #442 for "National" and #475 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stroud: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Stroud

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Stroud.

StroudActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
StroudAmberley and Woodchester1,787CONCON7385110101170191,395
StroudBerkeley Vale5,767CONCON2,4291,7640441950654,497
StroudBisley1,825CONCON8514080121240301,425
StroudCainscross5,896LABLAB1,6592,4920483000974,596
StroudCam East3,704CONCON1,3781,3060281460322,890
StroudCam West3,171CONLAB1,1371,1660231270202,473
StroudChalford5,274CONCON2,1571,4880883280524,113
StroudCoaley and Uley1,984CONCON8175150141840181,548
StroudDursley5,473LABLAB1,6832,2320382390754,267
StroudHardwicke5,947CONCON2,6991,5070472990874,639
StroudNailsworth5,367LABLAB1,7621,9820333760334,186
StroudPainswick and Upton5,964CONCON2,8681,3030883360564,651
StroudRandwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe1,782CONCON6415200132020131,389
StroudRodborough3,589LABLAB1,0631,4060252700352,799
StroudSevern4,319CONCON1,9961,0830322290293,369
StroudStonehouse5,906LABLAB1,5722,63804025501004,605
StroudStroud Central1,743LABLAB4817030121520131,361
StroudStroud Farmhill and Paganhill1,891CONCON6686390131190351,474
StroudStroud Slade1,840LABLAB4727700151670111,435
StroudStroud Trinity1,696LABLAB4936210101870101,321
StroudStroud Uplands1,658LABLAB4736680141100261,291
StroudStroud Valley1,745LABLAB4736930101750111,362
StroudThe Stanleys3,793CONCON1,3831,3360271880242,958
StroudThrupp2,008CONCON6986040142360131,565
StroudWotton-under-Edge407CONCON1451250102809317
 Total84,536CONCON30,73628,48007085,089091365,926

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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