Suffolk South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Suffolk South: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: James Cartlidge  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 76,201
Turnout: 70.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,27062.2%59.2%
LAB10,37319.4%23.1%
LIB6,70212.5%14.4%
Green3,1445.9%3.4%
CON Majority22,89742.8%Pred Maj 36.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
95%
LAB
4%
LIB
1%
Green
0%

Suffolk South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Suffolk South constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right9° Right
National Position9° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %54%56%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job51%53%51%
High SEC54%53%51%
Average Age52.749.448.5
ABC1 Class55%55%54%

Suffolk South ranks #302 for "Leave", #169 for "Right", #164 for "National" and #197 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Suffolk South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Suffolk South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Suffolk South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Suffolk South at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Suffolk South. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Suffolk SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
BaberghAlton20157676439154232371,025
BaberghBerners20158474239670805778
BaberghBoxford20155831276540810
BaberghBrett Vale2015693135004000
BaberghBrook20152,15141000569775
BaberghBures St Mary2015760165001740
BaberghChadacre2015014700207917
BaberghDodnash20151,8053016775815010
BaberghGlemsford and Stanstead20151,595307003881,208
BaberghGreat Cornard North20151,5311,22725804590
BaberghGreat Cornard South20152,0911,11126504430
BaberghHadleigh North20151,745914401480344290
BaberghHadleigh South20151,71882643903970
BaberghHolbrook2015016200229795
BaberghLavenham20155151230082353
BaberghLeavenheath2015841160001480
BaberghLong Melford201573326403013072,127
BaberghLower Brett201575315903461320
BaberghMid Samford20151,1453002,30003420
BaberghNayland20155992240210740
BaberghNorth Cosford2015020300303854
BaberghPinewood20151,04999787903220
BaberghSouth Cosford201568472006460
BaberghSudbury East20151,8351,21516604620
BaberghSudbury North20151,8561,04428206130
BaberghSudbury South20151,2961,013514367433208
BaberghWaldingfield20152,3314362639143600
St EdmundsburyCavendish20157790040600
St EdmundsburyClare20158080032300

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Suffolk SouthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BaberghAlton3,2531,3894263320137002,284
BaberghBerners3,2481,3774193400144002,280
BaberghBoxford1,802796200193076001,265
BaberghBrett Vale1,813842206150075001,273
BaberghBrook3,3301,5743392880137002,338
BaberghBures St Mary1,39365814112205700978
BaberghChadacre1,692781189148070001,188
BaberghDodnash2,9431,3193073130127002,066
BaberghGlemsford and Stanstead3,0871,4293832310125002,168
BaberghGreat Cornard North3,6921,4866882730144002,591
BaberghGreat Cornard South3,7381,5706212830150002,624
BaberghHadleigh North3,7661,5726023160154002,644
BaberghHadleigh South3,0921,3124382940127002,171
BaberghHolbrook2,050873269201095001,438
BaberghLavenham1,431652172122059001,005
BaberghLeavenheath1,474704136135060001,035
BaberghLong Melford3,1451,4254012530129002,208
BaberghLower Brett1,788861165157073001,256
BaberghMid Samford3,2741,4263533750144002,298
BaberghNayland1,534704174137062001,077
BaberghNorth Cosford1,794794221166078001,259
BaberghPinewood3,5731,3266833450154002,508
BaberghSouth Cosford1,816854189157074001,274
BaberghSudbury East3,5671,4336862450140002,504
BaberghSudbury North3,6601,4876442900149002,570
BaberghSudbury South3,6121,3996813030152002,535
BaberghWaldingfield3,2901,5713422660131002,310
St EdmundsburyCavendish1,648820142135060001,157
St EdmundsburyClare1,698841157130063001,191
 Total76,20333,27510,3746,70003,1460053,495

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Suffolk South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Suffolk South.

Suffolk SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BaberghAlton3,2531,320511374079002,284
BaberghBerners3,2481,308505383083002,279
BaberghBoxford1,802758247217044001,266
BaberghBrett Vale1,813803253173043001,272
BaberghBrook3,3301,503425331079002,338
BaberghBures St Mary1,39362817714003300978
BaberghChadacre1,692745233170041001,189
BaberghDodnash2,9431,256384352074002,066
BaberghGlemsford and Stanstead3,0871,363462271072002,168
BaberghGreat Cornard North3,6921,407781320083002,591
BaberghGreat Cornard South3,7381,490716331087002,624
BaberghHadleigh North3,7661,492699365089002,645
BaberghHadleigh South3,0921,246517334074002,171
BaberghHolbrook2,050829325229055001,438
BaberghLavenham1,431621209141034001,005
BaberghLeavenheath1,474673174154035001,036
BaberghLong Melford3,1451,358482294075002,209
BaberghLower Brett1,788823211180042001,256
BaberghMid Samford3,2741,356440419083002,298
BaberghNayland1,534671213157036001,077
BaberghNorth Cosford1,794756268190045001,259
BaberghPinewood3,5731,250777392089002,508
BaberghSouth Cosford1,816815235180043001,273
BaberghSudbury East3,5671,357776290081002,504
BaberghSudbury North3,6601,409738337086002,570
BaberghSudbury South3,6121,322775350088002,535
BaberghWaldingfield3,2901,501425308076002,310
St EdmundsburyCavendish1,648785182155035001,157
St EdmundsburyClare1,698805199151036001,191
 Total76,20331,65012,3397,68801,8200053,497

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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