Suffolk West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Suffolk West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Matt Hancock  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 80,192
Turnout: 64.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,84265.8%64.5%
LAB10,64820.7%24.2%
LIB4,6859.1%4.6%
Green2,2624.4%5.0%
OTH00.0%1.6%
CON Majority23,19445.1%Pred Maj 40.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
99%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Suffolk West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Suffolk West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right9° Right
National Position15° Nat7° Nat
Social Position7° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %64%56%52%
British Identity22%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born84%89%87%
Good Education31%37%39%
Good Job47%52%51%
High SEC48%53%51%
Average Age48.449.348.3
ABC1 Class51%55%54%

Suffolk West ranks #87 for "Leave", #115 for "Right", #50 for "National" and #87 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Suffolk West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Suffolk West

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Suffolk West.

Suffolk WestActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West SuffolkBardwell2,146CONCON1,031206560630211,377
West SuffolkBarningham2,260CONCON1,088219570650211,450
West SuffolkBarrow2,012CONCON972185570560211,291
West SuffolkBrandon Central2,083CONCON838346650640231,336
West SuffolkBrandon East2,155CONCON907316680660241,381
West SuffolkBrandon West2,185CONCON921322680660241,401
West SuffolkChedburgh and Chevington2,229CONCON994302530620201,431
West SuffolkClare, Hundon and Kedington3,511CONCON1,665361960950352,252
West SuffolkExning1,699CONCON791184490490181,091
West SuffolkHaverhill Central2,287CONCON756539750690261,465
West SuffolkHaverhill East2,628CONCON780716800790291,684
West SuffolkHaverhill North3,181CONCON1,2134679902260352,040
West SuffolkHaverhill South4,072CONCON1,1501,10917501200592,613
West SuffolkHaverhill South East1,893CONCON738332610610221,214
West SuffolkHaverhill West4,170CONCON1,46692711801210432,675
West SuffolkHorringer255CONCON1074080703165
West SuffolkIceni3,325CONCON1,3054618002580302,134
West SuffolkIxworth1,737CONCON841160500450181,114
West SuffolkKentford and Moulton2,214CONCON961300670690241,421
West SuffolkLakenheath4,061CONCON1,999409750910302,604
West SuffolkManor2,002CONCON1,012167400490161,284
West SuffolkMildenhall Great Heath1,979CONCON793331610620221,269
West SuffolkMildenhall Kingsway and Market2,117CONCON915293650610231,357
West SuffolkMildenhall Queensway1,670CONCON761199460480171,071
West SuffolkMinden1CONCON00000000
West SuffolkNewmarket East3,749CONCON1,24779018401220602,403
West SuffolkNewmarket North3,256CONCON1,16468210401010372,088
West SuffolkNewmarket West3,662CONCON1,29180810801030392,349
West SuffolkRisby2,356CONCON1,022330700660251,513
West SuffolkStanton2,301CONCON1,122219590540221,476
West SuffolkThe Rows3,634CONCON1,6984178101030312,330
West SuffolkWhepstead and Wickhambrook1,418CONCON65516437039014909
West SuffolkWithersfield1,946CONCON983161400480161,248
 Total80,194CONCON33,18612,4622,35202,588084851,436

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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