Suffolk West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Suffolk West: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Matt Hancock  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 80,192
Turnout: 64.1%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,84265.8%62.8%
LAB10,64820.7%23.5%
LIB4,6859.1%10.8%
Green2,2624.4%2.9%
CON Majority23,19445.1%Pred Maj 39.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LAB
2%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Suffolk West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Suffolk West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right9° Right
National Position15° Nat7° Nat
Social Position7° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %64%56%52%
British Identity22%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born84%89%88%
Good Education31%37%39%
Good Job47%53%51%
High SEC48%53%51%
Average Age48.449.448.5
ABC1 Class51%55%54%

Suffolk West ranks #87 for "Leave", #115 for "Right", #50 for "National" and #87 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Suffolk West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Suffolk West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Suffolk West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Suffolk West at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Suffolk West. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Suffolk WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
Forest HeathAll Saints20151,426348000607
Forest HeathBrandon East20152,32190002,33500
Forest HeathBrandon West20151,43600001,255
Forest HeathEriswell and The Rows20151,79200001,571
Forest HeathExning20154810000555
Forest HeathGreat Heath20151,331555079400
Forest HeathIceni20156780027600
Forest HeathLakenheath20151,81844001,12900
Forest HeathManor20155280479000
Forest HeathMarket20151,71900001,117
Forest HeathRed Lodge20151,45229901,19300
Forest HeathSeverals20152,88300002,741
Forest HeathSouth20156630000343
Forest HeathSt Mary's20152,5151,59101,46700
St EdmundsburyBardwell2015867309029300
St EdmundsburyBarningham2015-100000
St EdmundsburyBarrow2015845195345000
St EdmundsburyChedburgh2015-100000
St EdmundsburyHaverhill East20152,4962,28102,02700
St EdmundsburyHaverhill North20153,3322,19101,93100
St EdmundsburyHaverhill South20151,0251,04315768900
St EdmundsburyHaverhill West20152,128720085200
St EdmundsburyHundon20157520043500
St EdmundsburyIxworth2015-100000
St EdmundsburyKedington2015595223030500
St EdmundsburyRisby2015-100000
St EdmundsburyStanton2015-100000
St EdmundsburyWickhambrook20156230000617
St EdmundsburyWithersfield2015617002000363

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Suffolk WestEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest HeathAll Saints2,6281,081362165078001,686
Forest HeathBrandon East4,1731,7785792050114002,676
Forest HeathBrandon West2,6461,163325137071001,696
Forest HeathEriswell and The Rows6,0952,8215953280166003,910
Forest HeathExning1,3855851719204100889
Forest HeathGreat Heath3,0731,249484154085001,972
Forest HeathIceni1,3005891228403800833
Forest HeathLakenheath3,3041,503359168089002,119
Forest HeathManor1,35458913110804000868
Forest HeathMarket3,0711,370346169085001,970
Forest HeathRed Lodge2,9071,282342161080001,865
Forest HeathSeverals4,9692,0776952740140003,186
Forest HeathSouth1,1815321068503400757
Forest HeathSt Mary's4,1431,6017112270118002,657
St EdmundsburyBardwell1,836779220124054001,177
St EdmundsburyBarningham1,874852176121053001,202
St EdmundsburyBarrow1,637697168135049001,049
St EdmundsburyChedburgh1,47967812510404200949
St EdmundsburyHaverhill East5,4702,0231,0432870156003,509
St EdmundsburyHaverhill North5,4672,0859673000154003,506
St EdmundsburyHaverhill South4,1581,4578612300119002,667
St EdmundsburyHaverhill West4,0161,6595632380115002,575
St EdmundsburyHundon2,135950232128060001,370
St EdmundsburyIxworth1,676760157111047001,075
St EdmundsburyKedington1,4246211648903900913
St EdmundsburyRisby1,881847167137056001,207
St EdmundsburyStanton1,770822161105048001,136
St EdmundsburyWickhambrook1,54168215410704500988
St EdmundsburyWithersfield1,599710161108047001,026
 Total80,19233,84210,6474,68102,2630051,433

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Suffolk West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Suffolk West.

Suffolk WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest HeathAll Saints2,6281,031410194051001,686
Forest HeathBrandon East4,1731,698654250074002,676
Forest HeathBrandon West2,6461,112372165046001,695
Forest HeathEriswell and The Rows6,0952,7047043930108003,909
Forest HeathExning1,38555819610702700888
Forest HeathGreat Heath3,0731,190539187055001,971
Forest HeathIceni1,3005641469802500833
Forest HeathLakenheath3,3041,440418203058002,119
Forest HeathManor1,35456315612302600868
Forest HeathMarket3,0711,311401202055001,969
Forest HeathRed Lodge2,9071,226394192052001,864
Forest HeathSeverals4,9691,982785328091003,186
Forest HeathSouth1,1815091289802200757
Forest HeathSt Mary's4,1431,522786272077002,657
St EdmundsburyBardwell1,836744254144035001,177
St EdmundsburyBarningham1,874816210141035001,202
St EdmundsburyBarrow1,637666198153032001,049
St EdmundsburyChedburgh1,47965015212002700949
St EdmundsburyHaverhill East5,4701,9181,1423470102003,509
St EdmundsburyHaverhill North5,4671,9801,0663590100003,505
St EdmundsburyHaverhill South4,1581,377937275078002,667
St EdmundsburyHaverhill West4,0161,582636282075002,575
St EdmundsburyHundon2,135909271151039001,370
St EdmundsburyIxworth1,676728187129031001,075
St EdmundsburyKedington1,42459419010402500913
St EdmundsburyRisby1,881811202158037001,208
St EdmundsburyStanton1,770788193124031001,136
St EdmundsburyWickhambrook1,54165318212402900988
St EdmundsburyWithersfield1,599679190126031001,026
 Total80,19232,30512,0995,54901,4740051,427

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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