Surrey East: Seat Details

Surrey East: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:Claire Coutinho  (CON)
County/Area:Surrey (South East)
Electorate:83,148
Turnout:71.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON35,62459.7%51.9%
LIB11,58419.4%13.7%
LAB8,24713.8%19.7%
Green2,3403.9%8.3%
OTH1,8953.2%6.4%
CON Majority24,04040.3%32.2%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
98%
LIB
0%
LAB
2%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Surrey East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Surrey East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position17° Right11° Right
National Position7° Nat3° Nat
Social Position3° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %54%52%52%
British Identity28%29%29%
Good Health50%49%48%
UK Born91%88%87%
Good Education44%43%39%
Good Job61%56%51%
High SEC65%57%51%
Average Age50.449.148.3
ABC1 Class66%60%54%
Average House Price£510,694£413,307£309,875

Surrey East ranks #306 for "Leave", #19 for "Right", #208 for "National" and #258 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Surrey East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Surrey East

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Surrey East.

Surrey EastActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Reigate and BansteadHorley Central and South7,159CONCON2,3291,569434058002285,140
Reigate and BansteadHorley East and Salfords4,782CONCON1,810816267039001503,433
Reigate and BansteadHorley West and Sidlow6,626CONCON2,4861,219472033102494,757
TandridgeBletchingley and Nutfield4,391CONCON1,709589456023801593,151
TandridgeBurstow, Horne and Outwood4,735CONCON1,908518287038303043,400
TandridgeChaldon1,440CONCON6961151070680471,033
TandridgeDormansland and Felcourt3,076CONCON1,357293207015202002,209
TandridgeFelbridge1,786CONCON8291388701370921,283
TandridgeGodstone4,497CONCON1,854532287029402613,228
TandridgeHarestone3,129CONCON1,131398429016901182,245
TandridgeLimpsfield2,861CONCON1,228278194014902042,053
TandridgeLingfield and Crowhurst3,281CONCON1,331399247017102072,355
TandridgeOxted North and Tandridge4,459CONCON1,837507341024402723,201
TandridgeOxted South4,811CONCON1,888665333025003183,454
TandridgePortley3,384CONCON1,053465608018201222,430
TandridgeQueens Park2,907CONCON913369544015501062,087
TandridgeTatsfield and Titsey1,553CONCON678175910800911,115
TandridgeValley3,170CONCON854541585018001132,273
TandridgeWarlingham East and Chelsham and Farleigh4,376CONCON1,433522798022901593,141
TandridgeWarlingham West2,798CONCON1,177293274014601182,008
TandridgeWestway3,399CONCON894691552018301212,441
TandridgeWhyteleafe2,988CONCON824536493016601272,146
TandridgeWoldingham1,539CONCON782136720710451,106
 Total83,147CONCON31,00111,7648,16504,94803,81159,689

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


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