Swansea West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Swansea West: Overview

 Predicted winner: LAB 
 Acual winner: LAB 

MP at 2019: Geraint Davies  (LAB)
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 57,078
Turnout: 62.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB18,49351.6%51.9%
CON10,37729.0%28.7%
LIB2,9938.4%6.8%
Plaid1,9845.5%6.0%
Brexit1,9835.5%6.6%
LAB Majority8,11622.7%Pred Maj 23.1%
Chance of
winning
LAB
86%
CON
14%
LIB
0%
Plaid
0%
Brexit
0%

Swansea West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Swansea West constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position9° Left9° Left
National Position10° Glo
Social Position9° Lib2° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %47%53%52%
British Identity30%26%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born88%95%88%
Good Education47%36%39%
Good Job51%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age45.549.648.5
ABC1 Class57%47%54%

Swansea West ranks #465 for "Leave", #476 for "Right", #517 for "National" and #559 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Swansea West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Swansea West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Swansea West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Swansea West at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Swansea West. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Swansea WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
SwanseaCastle20129066,4442,01504411,037355
SwanseaCockett20126677,1702,668002,410248
SwanseaDunvant2012189774877000795
SwanseaKillay North20121271984350000
SwanseaKillay South20121113274290000
SwanseaLandore2012672,07089500077
SwanseaMayals2012283163257000293
SwanseaSketty20124,1646,0657,783001,802942
SwanseaTownhill20121933,369508000225
SwanseaUplands20121,2394,7693,65801,07900

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Swansea WestEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaCastle11,0871,5714,1694993620358006,959
SwanseaCockett9,3821,8012,8844433960365005,889
SwanseaDunvant3,1357597961881220102001,967
SwanseaKillay North2,45152568915979086001,538
SwanseaKillay South1,566376401946205000983
SwanseaLandore132224755040083
SwanseaMayals1,87850141513462066001,178
SwanseaSketty10,1122,2482,6976083580437006,348
SwanseaTownhill6,1747902,4872182170165003,877
SwanseaUplands11,1601,7833,9086443210350007,006
 Total57,07710,37618,4932,9921,98401,9830035,828

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Swansea West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Swansea West.

Swansea WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaCastle11,0871,5554,1854074270384006,958
SwanseaCockett9,3821,7882,8983624530388005,889
SwanseaDunvant3,1357558021531450112001,967
SwanseaKillay North2,45152269413099094001,539
SwanseaKillay South1,566374404777405500984
SwanseaLandore132224746040083
SwanseaMayals1,87849841910978073001,177
SwanseaSketty10,1122,2342,7164964340468006,348
SwanseaTownhill6,1747812,4941782460177003,876
SwanseaUplands11,1601,7673,9285264020383007,006
 Total57,07710,29618,5872,4422,36402,1380035,827

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (07-Jan-2020 16:36, Py3L, sc3074)