Tonbridge: Seat Details

Tonbridge: Overview

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:Tom Tugendhat  (CON)
County/Area:Kent (South East)
Electorate:72,799
Turnout:69.1%

Party2024
Votes
2024
Share
Pred
Votes
CON20,51740.8%32.2%
LAB9,35118.6%14.1%
Green7,59615.1%15.2%
Reform7,54815.0%26.2%
LIB4,2348.4%11.3%
OTH1,0822.1%1.1%
CON Majority11,16622.2%6.0%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
64%
LAB
2%
Green
3%
Reform
30%
LIB
1%
OTH
0%

Tonbridge : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Tonbridge constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2024CONCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right11° Right
National Position8° Nat3° Nat
Social Position4° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %54%52%52%
Average Age52.450.449.6
Good Education52%53%51%
Employed59%59%57%
Homeowner73%68%64%
Car owner88%84%77%
Married52%48%45%
Ethnic White93%86%83%
Christian53%50%48%
ABC1 Class66%62%56%
Gross Household Income£51,588£50,167£42,397
Deprivation46%48%52%
Average House Price£475,627£409,816£313,667

Tonbridge ranks #314 for "Leave", #42 for "Economic Right Position", #190 for "National Position" and #220 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Tonbridge: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Tonbridge

This table shows the recent and predicted future general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Tonbridge. These are not local election results, which will be different.

TonbridgeActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2024
GE24
Winner
Pred GE
Winner
SevenoaksAsh and New Ash Green4,539CONCON
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,626CONCON
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East4,197CONCON
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,180CONCON
SevenoaksHartley and Hodsoll Street4,745CONCON
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,855CONCON
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,926CONCON
Tonbridge and MallingBirling, Leybourne and Ryarsh1,087CONCON
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Platt4,452CONReform
Tonbridge and MallingBourne4,168CONCON
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green and Angel6,762CONCON
Tonbridge and MallingEast Malling, West Malling and Offham642CONReform
Tonbridge and MallingEast and West Peckham, Mereworth and Wateringbury4,941CONCON
Tonbridge and MallingHigham4,721CONCON
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough4,278CONCON
Tonbridge and MallingJudd4,683GreenGreen
Tonbridge and MallingPilgrims with Ightham4,513CONCON
Tonbridge and MallingTrench4,217CONCON
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall6,269CONCON
 Total72,801CONCON

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2025.


© 2025 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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