Torfaen: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Torfaen: Overview

 Predicted winner: LAB 
 Acual winner: LAB 

MP at 2019: Nick Thomas-Symonds  (LAB)
County/Area: Gwent (Wales)
Electorate: 61,743
Turnout: 60.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB15,54641.8%44.5%
CON11,80431.8%34.2%
Brexit5,74215.4%8.6%
LIB1,8314.9%4.4%
Plaid1,4413.9%6.0%
Green8122.2%2.2%
LAB Majority3,74210.1%Pred Maj 10.2%
Chance of
winning
LAB
68%
CON
32%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%

Torfaen : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Torfaen constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position11° Left9° Left
National Position8° Nat
Social Position1° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %61%53%52%
British Identity24%26%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education30%36%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC40%46%51%
Average Age49.349.648.5
ABC1 Class41%47%54%

Torfaen ranks #136 for "Leave", #513 for "Right", #199 for "National" and #356 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Torfaen: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Torfaen: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Torfaen

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Torfaen at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Torfaen. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

TorfaenActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
TorfaenAbersychan201202,147001782521,583
TorfaenBlaenavon201201,8502910002,554
TorfaenBrynwern2012031900037187
TorfaenCoed Eva201246118000300135
TorfaenCwmyniscoy2012927400010225
TorfaenFairwater20120866000912598
TorfaenGreenmeadow201207890000767
TorfaenLlantarnam201249595100001,233
TorfaenNew Inn20123,1972,1340002190
TorfaenPanteg20124833,03924218404811,474
TorfaenPontnewydd20124042,309000419664
TorfaenPontnewynydd201201170009265
TorfaenPontypool2012021300071309
TorfaenSnatchwood2012034305100194
TorfaenSt Cadocs and Penygarn2012021600093202
TorfaenSt Dials201206220001561,078
TorfaenTrevethin20120722000137396
TorfaenTwo Locks20123472,2900002451,677
TorfaenUpper Cwmbran201201,7590002521,012
TorfaenWainfelin201201990000510

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

TorfaenEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TorfaenAbersychan5,4229741,45214950169120003,265
TorfaenBlaenavon4,5908481,1881504275992002,764
TorfaenBrynwern1,39723739038128183100842
TorfaenCoed Eva1,781362393571732760001,072
TorfaenCwmyniscoy1,0851913022898132000652
TorfaenFairwater3,97879092212138657119002,395
TorfaenGreenmeadow3,151534886882834066001,897
TorfaenLlantarnam4,1938721,0031253835587002,525
TorfaenNew Inn4,5461,2257951644016092002,737
TorfaenPanteg5,5361,0921,31619552275133003,333
TorfaenPontnewydd4,7968071,31812845063121002,887
TorfaenPontnewynydd1,12822527831107152200678
TorfaenPontypool1,35027231541130193600813
TorfaenSnatchwood1,53626741638152193200924
TorfaenSt Cadocs and Penygarn1,18921830731114163100717
TorfaenSt Dials2,749521704692623565001,656
TorfaenTrevethin2,752427816642503565001,657
TorfaenTwo Locks4,7468971,19215443165118002,857
TorfaenUpper Cwmbran3,9896641,1221043705092002,402
TorfaenWainfelin1,830383429561722338001,101
 Total61,74411,80615,5441,8315,7408131,4400037,174

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Torfaen

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Torfaen.

TorfaenPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TorfaenAbersychan5,4221,0541,53713428071189003,265
TorfaenBlaenavon4,5909171,26113523861152002,764
TorfaenBrynwern1,3972574123471184900841
TorfaenCoed Eva1,78139042351972884001,073
TorfaenCwmyniscoy1,0852073192555133300652
TorfaenFairwater3,97885298810921658172002,395
TorfaenGreenmeadow3,1515799347915841105001,896
TorfaenLlantarnam4,1939331,06911321456140002,525
TorfaenNew Inn4,5461,29086514822462149002,738
TorfaenPanteg5,5361,1761,40617629277206003,333
TorfaenPontnewydd4,7968781,39411525165183002,886
TorfaenPontnewynydd1,1282422962860153700678
TorfaenPontypool1,3502933373773205400814
TorfaenSnatchwood1,5362914423485205300925
TorfaenSt Cadocs and Penygarn1,1892363262864164700717
TorfaenSt Dials2,7495627486214636101001,655
TorfaenTrevethin2,752466858581403699001,657
TorfaenTwo Locks4,7469671,26613924167178002,858
TorfaenUpper Cwmbran3,9897231,1859420751143002,403
TorfaenWainfelin1,83041145850962462001,101
 Total61,74412,72416,5241,6493,2088352,2360037,176

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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