Torfaen: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Torfaen: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2019: Nick Thomas-Symonds  (LAB)
County/Area: Gwent (Wales)
Electorate: 61,743
Turnout: 60.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB15,54641.8%47.3%
CON11,80431.8%30.5%
Brexit5,74215.4%10.0%
LIB1,8314.9%2.7%
Plaid1,4413.9%3.9%
Green8122.2%3.2%
OTH00.0%2.5%
LAB Majority3,74210.1%Pred Maj 16.8%
Chance of
winning
LAB
81%
CON
19%
Brexit
0%
LIB
0%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Torfaen : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Torfaen constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position11° Left8° Left
National Position8° Nat
Social Position1° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %61%53%52%
British Identity24%26%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born97%94%87%
Good Education30%37%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC40%46%51%
Average Age49.349.548.3
ABC1 Class41%48%54%

Torfaen ranks #136 for "Leave", #513 for "Right", #199 for "National" and #356 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Torfaen: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Torfaen

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Torfaen.

TorfaenActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TorfaenAbersychan5,030LABLAB8191,5757229193780743,002
TorfaenBlaenavon4,533LABLAB7171,29562265852140672,705
TorfaenBrynwern1,316LABLAB19439823982622024785
TorfaenCoed Eva1,912LABLAB3085973310036370281,139
TorfaenCroesyceiliog North85LABLAB202224110151
TorfaenCwmyniscoy1,035LABLAB137291111252017017618
TorfaenFairwater4,023LABLAB7371,00770219712340602,398
TorfaenGreenmeadow2,050LABLAB3216493911742230321,223
TorfaenLlantarnam4,445LABLAB9291,1877023476930632,652
TorfaenNew Inn4,908CONCON1,5358697725284410692,927
TorfaenPanteg5,907LABLAB1,3061,55687314101760833,523
TorfaenPontnewydd4,852LABLAB7031,59782255811060702,894
TorfaenPontnewynydd1,112LABLAB18331516922513020664
TorfaenPontypool1,436LABLAB257401261032913026855
TorfaenSnatchwood1,866LABLAB2785932310536520261,113
TorfaenSt Cadocs and Penygarn1,311LABLAB184377181052451023782
TorfaenSt Dials3,075LABLAB5129544617352530451,835
TorfaenTrevethin2,486LABLAB3368533214145390351,481
TorfaenTwo Locks4,798LABLAB9461,3138826389900732,862
TorfaenUpper Cwmbran4,307LABLAB6061,289792601251400692,568
TorfaenWainfelin1,842LABLAB3024313121537470341,097
 Total62,329LABLAB11,33017,5699873,7311,1781,440093937,174

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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