Truro and Falmouth: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Truro and Falmouth: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Cherilyn Mackrory  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 76,719
Turnout: 77.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON27,23746.0%44.7%
LAB22,67638.3%43.1%
LIB7,15012.1%5.4%
Green1,7142.9%3.8%
OTH4130.7%2.9%
CON Majority4,5617.7%Pred Maj 1.6%
Chance of
winning
CON
56%
LAB
44%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Truro and Falmouth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Truro and Falmouth constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right7° Right
National Position2° Glo4° Nat
Social Position5° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %48%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born95%92%87%
Good Education47%41%39%
Good Job52%50%51%
High SEC52%52%51%
Average Age50.850.448.3
ABC1 Class56%54%54%

Truro and Falmouth ranks #437 for "Leave", #268 for "Right", #424 for "National" and #510 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Truro and Falmouth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Truro and Falmouth

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Truro and Falmouth.

Truro and FalmouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day1,288CONCON44442328072026993
CornwallChacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu3,413CONCON1,39093812001270562,631
CornwallFalmouth Arwenack3,184CONCON1,1929831430770632,458
CornwallFalmouth Boslowick4,058CONCON1,4001,3881690880883,133
CornwallFalmouth Penwerris3,599LABLAB8851,5012070890972,779
CornwallFalmouth Smithick4,154LABLAB1,0181,74516202050733,203
CornwallFalmouth Trescobeas3,588LABLAB1,1031,3599501500622,769
CornwallFeock and Playing Place3,993CONCON1,6981,05114807101133,081
CornwallLadock, St Clement and St Erme3,786CONCON1,4501,2151100730732,921
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias1,354CONCON508403630270431,044
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern3,467CONCON1,3719881520660982,675
CornwallPenryn East and Mylor4,667CONCON1,8791,3891490880963,601
CornwallPenryn West3,987LABLAB1,1451,475142021101023,075
CornwallPerranporth3,911CONCON1,5501,1941200840703,018
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound2,850CONCON1,093926750550512,200
CornwallRoseland2,818CONCON1,171827560500692,173
CornwallSt Agnes3,374CONCON1,1101,0842240940922,604
CornwallThreemilestone and Gloweth3,554CONLAB1,1211,22021708401002,742
CornwallTruro Boscawen4,267CONLAB1,2711,461234021401113,291
CornwallTruro Redannick3,739CONLAB1,1501,264263010301052,885
CornwallTruro Tregolls3,680CONLAB1,2271,3531120770712,840
CornwallTruro Trehaverne3,989CONLAB1,3081,35620301240873,078
 Total76,720CONCON26,48425,5433,19202,22901,74659,194

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (24-Jul-2020 19:51, Py3L, sc1782)