Tunbridge Wells: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Tunbridge Wells: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Greg Clark  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 74,816
Turnout: 73.0%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,11955.1%54.0%
LIB15,47428.3%18.8%
LAB8,09814.8%25.7%
OTH9591.8%1.5%
CON Majority14,64526.8%Pred Maj 28.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
91%
LIB
2%
LAB
7%
OTH
0%

Tunbridge Wells : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Tunbridge Wells constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right11° Right
National Position2° Glo3° Nat
Social Position1° Lib1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %45%52%52%
British Identity29%29%29%
Good Health51%49%48%
UK Born90%88%88%
Good Education47%43%39%
Good Job61%56%51%
High SEC63%57%51%
Average Age49.349.248.5
ABC1 Class64%60%54%

Tunbridge Wells ranks #499 for "Leave", #55 for "Right", #431 for "National" and #441 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Tunbridge Wells: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Tunbridge Wells: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Tunbridge Wells

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Tunbridge Wells at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Tunbridge Wells. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Tunbridge WellsActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden201493026312333400
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater20145771969539300
Tunbridge WellsCapel201229842340000
Tunbridge WellsCulverden20151,9035635664194180
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst20151,62130028333800
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst20151,92534235658700
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East20151,12626017352400
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West20151,02442014441900
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's20152,0794234603243520
Tunbridge WellsPark20152,12662168946600
Tunbridge WellsPembury20151,67843935177100
Tunbridge WellsRusthall20151,6781,0136828933970
Tunbridge WellsSherwood20151,32351125363900
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North20151,34337235725600
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms20151,2891,23532554600
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough20152,28936649144600
Tunbridge WellsSt James'201424718475124600
Tunbridge WellsSt John's20151,4785038903893490

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Tunbridge WellsEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,7891,708249762000492,768
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater3,1681,287399586000422,314
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,760759118387000221,286
Tunbridge WellsCulverden5,9172,1667671,311000794,323
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,5591,612219724000452,600
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,5832,085315887000613,348
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East3,0751,383255570000382,246
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,8111,212290517000342,053
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's5,0271,9644631,181000643,672
Tunbridge WellsPark5,2582,0695501,154000673,840
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,3841,926354867000553,202
Tunbridge WellsRusthall3,6151,317553725000462,641
Tunbridge WellsSherwood4,9861,968742869000633,642
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,1511,336269657000402,302
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms5,4731,9739421,013000703,998
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,3341,933219963000513,166
Tunbridge WellsSt James'4,5171,5196961,024000603,299
Tunbridge WellsSt John's5,4081,9036981,277000723,950
 Total74,81530,1208,09815,47400095854,650

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Tunbridge Wells

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Tunbridge Wells.

Tunbridge WellsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,7891,677550499000412,767
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater3,1681,261651367000352,314
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,760745258265000191,287
Tunbridge WellsCulverden5,9172,1181,238901000674,324
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,5591,583502477000382,600
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,5832,048680569000513,348
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East3,0751,358499357000322,246
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,8111,189513322000292,053
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's5,0271,923862833000543,672
Tunbridge WellsPark5,2582,026968790000563,840
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,3841,890702563000463,201
Tunbridge WellsRusthall3,6151,287840475000392,641
Tunbridge WellsSherwood4,9861,9271,138524000533,642
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,1511,310519439000342,302
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms5,4731,9281,377634000593,998
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,3341,898563663000433,167
Tunbridge WellsSt James'4,5171,4821,055711000513,299
Tunbridge WellsSt John's5,4081,8591,128902000613,950
 Total74,81529,50914,04310,29100080854,651

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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