Upper Bann: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Upper Bann: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2019: Carla Lockhart  (DUP)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 82,887
Turnout: 60.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP20,50141.0%41.0%
SF12,29124.6%24.6%
Alliance6,43312.9%12.9%
UUP6,19712.4%12.4%
SDLP4,6239.2%9.2%
DUP Majority8,21016.4%Pred Maj 16.4%
Chance of
winning
DUP
87%
SF
11%
Alliance
1%
UUP
1%
SDLP
0%

Upper Bann : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Upper Bann constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %53%44%52%
British Identity42%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born92%93%87%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job45%47%51%
High SEC53%57%51%
Average Age46.647.248.3
ABC1 Class42%46%53%

Upper Bann ranks #342 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Upper Bann: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Upper Bann

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Upper Bann.

Upper BannActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,401SFSF482835302650927002,053
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,226DUPDUP258631,1682150245001,949
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,467DUPDUP3221155692930191001,490
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North3,017DUPDUP3981167113630234001,822
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,327DUPDUP4501208063320301002,009
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,547DUPDUP4691416963380497002,141
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,287DUPDUP3612179761930238001,985
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow3,794SFSF1303647021650929002,290
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,289SFSF552915861400914001,986
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,859DUPDUP3543709703150321002,330
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,365SFSF1333106291470812002,031
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney3,198DUPDUP317499963510218001,931
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,182DUPDUP4011656352520468001,921
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,564DUPDUP3782301,0202700254002,152
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,348DUPDUP2231051,1582890246002,021
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane3,132DUPDUP233809803200279001,892
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,533SFSF4230955418101,048002,134
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland2,011DUPDUP2571084531600237001,215
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin3,406DUPDUP2131369304000379002,058
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,217DUPDUP283961,1302010233001,943
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,340DUPDUP150999302950542002,016
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,438SFSF4029253221001,002002,076
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill3,833SFSF4431660420301,148002,315
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,392DUPDUP2591891,0631560381002,048
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,689DUPDUP379581,1663780246002,227
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry27DUPDUP2183020016
 Total82,889DUPDUP6,1994,62320,5026,435012,2920050,051

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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