Upper Bann: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Upper Bann, or click here to find another new seat.

Upper Bann: Overview

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Carla Lockhart  (DUP)
County/Area:Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:82,887
Turnout:60.4%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP20,50141.0%41.0%
SF12,29124.6%24.6%
Alliance6,43312.9%12.9%
UUP6,19712.4%12.4%
SDLP4,6239.2%9.2%
DUP Majority8,21016.4%16.4%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
DUP
87%
SF
11%
Alliance
1%
UUP
1%
SDLP
0%

Upper Bann : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Upper Bann constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %53%44%52%
British Identity33%32%52%
Average Age48.649.349.5
Good Education45%48%49%
Employed59%56%58%
Homeowner69%69%63%
Car owner88%87%77%
Married48%46%45%
Ethnic White96%97%83%
Christian82%81%50%
ABC1 Class43%46%55%
Average House Price£128,389£148,218£309,210

Upper Bann ranks #342 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Upper Bann: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Upper Bann

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Upper Bann.

Upper BannActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,677SFSF634758028601,001002,220
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay2,870DUPDUP245351,0461910216001,733
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,603DUPDUP3461056103100201001,572
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North3,154DUPDUP424857683820245001,904
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,436DUPDUP473788643460312002,073
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,685DUPDUP4971077503540516002,224
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,464DUPDUP3942551,0041950243002,091
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow3,762SFSF774037081640919002,271
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain2,861SFSF52855201220795001,727
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,591DUPDUP3473858652820288002,167
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,573SFSF1143696631530858002,157
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney3,375DUPDUP350321,0583700228002,038
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,322DUPDUP4281656662610486002,006
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,457DUPDUP3812469672540239002,087
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain2,755DUPDUP201549682390202001,664
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane3,058DUPDUP246499683120271001,846
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,657SFSF536057518601,083002,209
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland2,147DUPDUP2801134831690251001,296
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin3,602DUPDUP2491059984230399002,174
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,089DUPDUP288571,1031940223001,865
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,112DUPDUP137588982790507001,879
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,518SFSF433854521301,023002,123
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill3,835SFSF535960520101,146002,316
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,473DUPDUP2861951,0771550385002,098
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,785DUPDUP406371,2043870251002,285
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry28DUPDUP2093020016
 Total82,889DUPDUP6,1964,62220,5026,431012,2900050,041

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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