Upper Bann: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Upper Bann: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2019: Carla Lockhart  (DUP)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 82,887
Turnout: 60.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP20,50141.0%41.0%
SF12,29124.6%24.6%
Alliance6,43312.9%12.9%
UUP6,19712.4%12.4%
SDLP4,6239.2%9.2%
DUP Majority8,21016.4%Pred Maj 16.4%
Chance of
winning
DUP
85%
SF
12%
Alliance
1%
UUP
1%
SDLP
0%

Upper Bann : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Upper Bann constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %53%44%52%
British Identity42%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born92%93%87%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job45%47%51%
High SEC53%57%51%
Average Age46.647.248.3
ABC1 Class42%46%53%

Upper Bann ranks #346 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Upper Bann: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Upper Bann: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Upper Bann

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Upper Bann at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Upper Bann. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Upper BannActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon2014156370204105071170
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay201433230671310116446
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2014658232370119010114
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North201464919838811109326
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South201467419842886015071
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West2014670276383900322139
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary2014466106578780111144
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow2014231444243320854264
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain201410835724380782381
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre20144161995601480214265
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna201424942116518063455
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney201453446681101024229
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford201461728932066030949
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan2014472109603121092173
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain201430160624900110414
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2014308395931130142198
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road201412940016150084059
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland201469228336670023214
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2014347875481470200121
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon201440661702490126373
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview201426157622720320326
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake2014121346223620862134
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill20141203612464001,045188
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches2014465200621200305286
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown201462546796114016242

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Upper BannEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,4011202535552890837002,054
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,1722061111,1361860276001,915
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,2462821395112300194001,356
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,9833791757022880257001,801
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,2734421867852780285001,976
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,8305192497773330435002,313
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,1583121419502430261001,907
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,40116332676431201,092002,657
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,6681072606222480977002,214
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,8362772191,0893810350002,316
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,2871442375872350782001,985
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney3,0593201119452280243001,847
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,3614252326772900406002,030
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,3433061549982840277002,019
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,1181861261,0712280270001,881
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,9321891149932340240001,770
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,4471072435242440964002,082
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,8002401213901570179001,087
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin3,0522101429212890281001,843
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,2582401211,1132120281001,967
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,4891641401,1202230459002,106
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,67910924857325901,031002,220
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,21011626663126601,262002,541
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,3152551829612330370002,001
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,5693781281,1052630281002,155
 Total82,8876,1964,62420,5006,433012,2900050,043

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Upper Bann

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Upper Bann.

Upper BannPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,4011202535552890837002,054
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,1722061111,1361860276001,915
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,2462821395112300194001,356
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,9833791757022880257001,801
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,2734421867852780285001,976
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,8305192497773330435002,313
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,1583121419502430261001,907
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,40116332676431201,092002,657
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,6681072606222480977002,214
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,8362772191,0893810350002,316
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,2871442375872350782001,985
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney3,0593201119452280243001,847
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,3614252326772900406002,030
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,3433061549982840277002,019
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,1181861261,0712280270001,881
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,9321891149932340240001,770
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,4471072435242440964002,082
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,8002401213901570179001,087
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin3,0522101429212890281001,843
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,2582401211,1132120281001,967
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,4891641401,1202230459002,106
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,67910924857325901,031002,220
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,21011626663126601,262002,541
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,3152551829612330370002,001
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,5693781281,1052630281002,155
 Total82,8876,1964,62420,5006,433012,2900050,043

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (02-Mar-2020 12:20, Py3L, sc2916)