Westmorland and Lonsdale: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Westmorland and Lonsdale: Overview

 Prediction: CON gain from LIB 

MP at 2019: Tim Farron  (LIB)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 67,789
Turnout: 77.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
LIB25,79548.9%39.2%
CON23,86145.3%43.9%
LAB2,2934.4%11.4%
Brexit7631.4%0.9%
Green00.0%1.3%
OTH00.0%3.3%
LIB Majority1,9343.7%Pred Maj 4.6%
Chance of
winning
LIB
37%
CON
62%
LAB
0%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Westmorland and Lonsdale : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Westmorland and Lonsdale constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019LIBLABCON
Party Winner 2017LIBLABCON
Party Winner 2015LIBLABCON
Economic Position4° Right4° Left
National Position2° Glo1° Nat
Social Position4° Lib2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %46%54%52%
British Identity30%28%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born95%92%87%
Good Education45%37%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC54%48%51%
Average Age53.948.548.3
ABC1 Class52%50%54%

Westmorland and Lonsdale ranks #476 for "Leave", #281 for "Right", #428 for "National" and #499 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Westmorland and Lonsdale: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Westmorland and Lonsdale

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Westmorland and Lonsdale.

Westmorland and LonsdaleActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South LakelandAmbleside and Grasmere3,259LIBCON1,0732741,05320320822,534
South LakelandArnside and Milnthorpe5,189LIBLIB1,6703671,785325101314,036
South LakelandBowness and Levens4,836CONCON2,1133121,143254701213,761
South LakelandBroughton and Coniston3,081CONCON1,20324378252320832,395
South LakelandBurton and Crooklands4,896CONCON2,0603341,213294801243,808
South LakelandCartmel3,305LIBCON1,1662321,03224330842,571
South LakelandGrange4,798LIBCON1,5873621,583314701213,731
South LakelandKendal East5,181LIBLIB1,5545641,678485201334,029
South LakelandKendal North3,302LIBLIB9494621,01525330842,568
South LakelandKendal Rural5,056LIBCON1,7883711,560355001283,932
South LakelandKendal South and Natland5,065LIBCON1,6574101,655375001293,938
South LakelandKendal Town5,043LIBLIB1,4266541,634314901273,921
South LakelandKendal West5,223LIBLIB1,4336521,745445201344,060
South LakelandSedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale4,962CONCON1,8373401,476314901253,858
South LakelandWindermere4,592LIBCON1,6204231,333334501173,571
 Total67,788LIBCON23,1366,00020,68749767001,72352,713

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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