Wrekin, The: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wrekin, The: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Mark Pritchard  (CON)
County/Area: Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 70,693
Turnout: 69.2%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,02963.5%57.9%
LAB12,30325.2%29.1%
LIB4,0678.3%10.0%
Green1,4913.0%2.9%
CON Majority18,72638.3%Pred Maj 28.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
92%
LAB
8%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Wrekin, The : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wrekin, The constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right3° Right
National Position9° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %59%59%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education39%35%39%
Good Job52%48%51%
High SEC52%46%51%
Average Age48.748.748.5
ABC1 Class53%49%54%

Wrekin, The ranks #180 for "Leave", #189 for "Right", #165 for "National" and #170 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wrekin, The: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Wrekin, The: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Wrekin, The

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wrekin, The at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wrekin, The. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Wrekin, TheActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
ShropshireAlbrighton201369017302731190
ShropshireShifnal North2013446002340626
ShropshireShifnal South and Cosford20136580044300
Telford and WrekinAdmaston and Bratton201582231019830500
Telford and WrekinApley Castle201549435371421500
Telford and WrekinArleston2015324729027100
Telford and WrekinChurch Aston and Lilleshall20151,306230002500
Telford and WrekinCollege2015474665000396
Telford and WrekinDonnington20151,4761,81908342450
Telford and WrekinDothill201542729645336300
Telford and WrekinEdgmond and Ercall Magna20153,65669508304720
Telford and WrekinErcall2015936493031600
Telford and WrekinHadley and Leegomery20153,4705,538006110
Telford and WrekinHaygate20155625720226076
Telford and WrekinMuxton20154,1431,9840000
Telford and WrekinNewport North and West20152,31661347760001,268
Telford and WrekinNewport South and East20152,640609052801,025
Telford and WrekinOakengates and Ketley Bank20153,0683,91701,084382513
Telford and WrekinPark201558850603070104
Telford and WrekinShawbirch201551429960426300
Telford and WrekinWrockwardine2015980393033900

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Wrekin, TheEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireAlbrighton3,5951,730456220080002,486
ShropshireShifnal North3,7291,744557205073002,579
ShropshireShifnal South and Cosford4,0742,031456247083002,817
Telford and WrekinAdmaston and Bratton2,3581,108296177049001,630
Telford and WrekinApley Castle2,5171,087403193058001,741
Telford and WrekinArleston2,54589572196048001,760
Telford and WrekinChurch Aston and Lilleshall2,3371,156245160055001,616
Telford and WrekinCollege2,632906744115055001,820
Telford and WrekinDonnington5,3282,0711,2842190110003,684
Telford and WrekinDothill2,151937365141045001,488
Telford and WrekinEdgmond and Ercall Magna5,0142,4655643200118003,467
Telford and WrekinErcall2,2961,051345144048001,588
Telford and WrekinHadley and Leegomery7,7012,7822,0513280165005,326
Telford and WrekinHaygate2,425934587109048001,678
Telford and WrekinMuxton5,0912,3657383150103003,521
Telford and WrekinNewport North and West4,7532,1756623450104003,286
Telford and WrekinNewport South and East4,2382,019571252088002,930
Telford and WrekinOakengates and Ketley Bank1,1714752585202400809
Telford and WrekinPark2,074926354113041001,434
Telford and WrekinShawbirch2,4981,116372186054001,728
Telford and WrekinWrockwardine2,1641,053273127043001,496
 Total70,69131,02612,3024,06401,4920048,884

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wrekin, The

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wrekin, The.

Wrekin, ThePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireAlbrighton3,5951,592555263076002,486
ShropshireShifnal North3,7291,601659250069002,579
ShropshireShifnal South and Cosford4,0741,874568296079002,817
Telford and WrekinAdmaston and Bratton2,3581,017361205047001,630
Telford and WrekinApley Castle2,517990472223055001,740
Telford and WrekinArleston2,545797791126046001,760
Telford and WrekinChurch Aston and Lilleshall2,3371,066309188052001,615
Telford and WrekinCollege2,632805816147052001,820
Telford and WrekinDonnington5,3281,8661,4302830104003,683
Telford and WrekinDothill2,151854424167043001,488
Telford and WrekinEdgmond and Ercall Magna5,0142,2727023800112003,466
Telford and WrekinErcall2,296963408172046001,589
Telford and WrekinHadley and Leegomery7,7012,4862,2634210157005,327
Telford and WrekinHaygate2,425841654138046001,679
Telford and WrekinMuxton5,0912,169878376098003,521
Telford and WrekinNewport North and West4,7531,992793402099003,286
Telford and WrekinNewport South and East4,2381,856687303084002,930
Telford and WrekinOakengates and Ketley Bank1,1714302906602300809
Telford and WrekinPark2,074846411138039001,434
Telford and WrekinShawbirch2,4981,020441216051001,728
Telford and WrekinWrockwardine2,164970332153041001,496
 Total70,69128,30714,2444,91301,4190048,883

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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