Wrexham: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wrexham: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2019: Sarah Atherton  (CON)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 49,734
Turnout: 67.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON15,19945.3%44.1%
LAB13,06839.0%41.7%
Plaid2,1516.4%6.4%
LIB1,4474.3%2.3%
Brexit1,2223.6%2.4%
Green4451.3%1.8%
OTH00.0%1.3%
CON Majority2,1316.4%Pred Maj 2.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
54%
LAB
46%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Wrexham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wrexham constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left8° Left
National Position5° Nat
Social Position1° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity28%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born91%94%87%
Good Education35%37%39%
Good Job44%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age48.849.548.3
ABC1 Class45%48%54%

Wrexham ranks #225 for "Leave", #428 for "Right", #285 for "National" and #341 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wrexham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wrexham

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wrexham.

WrexhamActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WrexhamActon2,196LABLAB5616334742271470231,480
WrexhamBorras Park1,870CONCON723358443322630201,263
WrexhamBrynyffynnon2,461LABLAB5977702836321770181,658
WrexhamCartrefle1,557LABLAB3834631331191280121,049
WrexhamErddig1,443CONCON48534142222045017972
WrexhamGarden Village1,572CONCON547395262319360141,060
WrexhamGresford East and West2,178CONCON929383462521430201,467
WrexhamGrosvenor1,880LABLAB4265692929321670161,268
WrexhamGwersyllt East and South3,496CONCON1,0531,0003357411470252,356
WrexhamGwersyllt North1,950LABLAB522647153021660131,314
WrexhamGwersyllt West2,099LABLAB5486021940231670161,415
WrexhamHermitage1,683LABLAB356639162416750121,138
WrexhamHolt2,412CONCON868606222622670151,626
WrexhamLittle Acton1,743CONCON587449222719590141,177
WrexhamLlay3,393CONCON9799431038046910452,287
WrexhamMaesydre1,428LABLAB36347736221733015963
WrexhamMarford and Hoseley1,730CONCON741284422020430171,167
WrexhamOffa1,614CONLAB4094263930531140181,089
WrexhamQueensway1,472LABLAB282571726158309993
WrexhamRhosnesni2,732CONCON877762353931770211,842
WrexhamRossett2,490CONCON1,081408562726560241,678
WrexhamSmithfield1,672LABLAB3925471630211110121,129
WrexhamStansty1,637CONCON514458242720460141,103
WrexhamWhitegate1,743LABLAB335674152919900121,174
WrexhamWynnstay1,284LABLAB214586719112008865
 Total49,735CONCON14,77213,9917827946132,151043033,533

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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