Wrexham: Seat Details

Wrexham: Overview

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:Sarah Atherton  (CON)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:49,737
Turnout:67.4%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON15,19945.3%24.8%
LAB13,06839.0%46.8%
Plaid2,1516.4%12.3%
LIB1,4474.3%2.6%
Reform1,2223.6%10.3%
Green4451.3%3.2%
CON Majority2,1316.4%21.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
CON
7%
LAB
92%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%

Wrexham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wrexham constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left8° Left
National Position5° Nat
Social Position1° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %58%53%52%
Average Age50.651.149.5
Good Education45%49%49%
Employed55%53%58%
Homeowner63%67%63%
Car owner80%81%77%
Married43%44%45%
Ethnic White95%94%83%
Christian54%47%50%
ABC1 Class49%52%56%
Gross Household Income£37,282£36,386£42,397
Deprivation53%54%52%
Average House Price£189,754£193,404£313,528

Wrexham ranks #225 for "Leave", #428 for "Economic Right Position", #285 for "National Position" and #341 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Wrexham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wrexham

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wrexham.

WrexhamActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WrexhamActon and Maesydre3,645LABLAB4831,1606324776298002,327
WrexhamBorras Park1,821CONCON4824283913637122001,244
WrexhamBrynyffynnon1,878LABLAB1875932110134189001,125
WrexhamCartrefle1,517LABLAB172458161033017300952
WrexhamErddig1,670CONLAB2974473210834137001,055
WrexhamGarden Village1,524CONLAB3244522910933100001,047
WrexhamGresford East and West2,163CONCON566524541634694001,447
WrexhamGrosvenor1,824LABLAB1975562510337241001,159
WrexhamGwersyllt East1,818CONLAB2875622513436137001,181
WrexhamGwersyllt North1,871LABLAB2336412412238149001,207
WrexhamGwersyllt South1,601CONLAB2335052210435132001,031
WrexhamGwersyllt West2,158LABLAB2896332714141278001,409
WrexhamHermitage1,633LABLAB156555179429154001,005
WrexhamHolt2,057CONLAB3855723013243108001,270
WrexhamLittle Acton1,686CONLAB3654873112640122001,171
WrexhamLlay4,018CONLAB5681,2879731486201002,553
WrexhamMarford and Hoseley1,735CONCON500399491254079001,192
WrexhamOffa1,926CONLAB2415263211644207001,166
WrexhamQueensway1,422LABLAB9949911812615400870
WrexhamRhosnesni2,635CONLAB5168064317759203001,804
WrexhamRossett2,635CONCON7066075917755117001,721
WrexhamSmithfield1,671LABLAB14254217932717200993
WrexhamStansty1,608CONLAB2655032511533108001,049
WrexhamWhitegate1,715LABLAB1556231810035162001,093
WrexhamWynnstay1,506LABLAB10059313852710300921
 Total49,737CONLAB7,94814,9588193,3061,0213,9400031,992

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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