Wrexham: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wrexham: Overview

 Predicted winner: CON 
 Acual winner: CON 

MP at 2019: Sarah Atherton  (CON)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 49,734
Turnout: 67.4%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON15,19945.3%43.3%
LAB13,06839.0%40.1%
Plaid2,1516.4%2.6%
LIB1,4474.3%5.8%
Brexit1,2223.6%6.2%
Green4451.3%1.9%
CON Majority2,1316.4%Pred Maj 3.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
55%
LAB
45%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Brexit
0%
Green
0%

Wrexham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wrexham constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left9° Left
National Position5° Nat
Social Position1° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity28%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born91%95%88%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job44%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age48.849.648.5
ABC1 Class45%47%54%

Wrexham ranks #225 for "Leave", #428 for "Right", #285 for "National" and #341 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wrexham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Wrexham: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Wrexham

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wrexham at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wrexham. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

WrexhamActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
WrexhamActon201205581440000
WrexhamBorras Park20122272204330000
WrexhamBrynyffynnon201202930000387
WrexhamCartrefle201201240000461
WrexhamErddig2012134013400123187
WrexhamGarden Village20125564312165000
WrexhamGresford East and West20122483143110000
WrexhamGrosvenor2012026513200890
WrexhamGwersyllt East and South201201,2333630000
WrexhamGwersyllt North201204300001640
WrexhamGwersyllt West201202940005150
WrexhamHermitage20120216840059163
WrexhamHolt2012510188580000
WrexhamLittle Acton20120195279000288
WrexhamLlay201201,5270000790
WrexhamMaesydre201245132242000134
WrexhamMarford and Hoseley20122331144660000
WrexhamOffa20121211392970000
WrexhamQueensway2012019800019655
WrexhamRhosnesni20122032956500268123
WrexhamRossett201271902100000
WrexhamSmithfield201202000000257
WrexhamStansty20120893390000
WrexhamWhitegate201203220002650
WrexhamWynnstay201203371300570

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

WrexhamEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WrexhamActon2,22361266856581887001,499
WrexhamBorras Park1,65762930462421566001,118
WrexhamBrynyffynnon2,42464475464532296001,633
WrexhamCartrefle1,67648548634441467001,130
WrexhamErddig1,56553733156361580001,055
WrexhamGarden Village1,4474473645435136200975
WrexhamGresford East and West1,88867238870461780001,273
WrexhamGrosvenor1,88248857557412088001,269
WrexhamGwersyllt East and South3,336952952928728138002,249
WrexhamGwersyllt North2,02554561148511891001,364
WrexhamGwersyllt West2,151662545565919109001,450
WrexhamHermitage1,54543544239391473001,042
WrexhamHolt2,34492939677622096001,580
WrexhamLittle Acton1,62156834260401469001,093
WrexhamLlay3,381960983868629137002,281
WrexhamMaesydre1,3854563294435135800935
WrexhamMarford and Hoseley1,64762928176351674001,111
WrexhamOffa1,82755749152451770001,232
WrexhamQueensway1,89043267329401683001,273
WrexhamRhosnesni2,637897554956626140001,778
WrexhamRossett2,25192133792502098001,518
WrexhamSmithfield1,89348462138471671001,277
WrexhamStansty1,4824224224238136100998
WrexhamWhitegate1,95350261441521790001,316
WrexhamWynnstay1,60433460526351368001,081
 Total49,73415,19913,0681,4461,2224432,1520033,530

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wrexham

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wrexham.

WrexhamPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WrexhamActon2,22358268378942635001,498
WrexhamBorras Park1,65760731578692127001,117
WrexhamBrynyffynnon2,42461277188933139001,634
WrexhamCartrefle1,67646349850722027001,130
WrexhamErddig1,56551634474662233001,055
WrexhamGarden Village1,4474283756960192500976
WrexhamGresford East and West1,88864740289782433001,273
WrexhamGrosvenor1,88246359078752836001,270
WrexhamGwersyllt East and South3,3369079761261434156002,249
WrexhamGwersyllt North2,02551862669872637001,363
WrexhamGwersyllt West2,151633563811002944001,450
WrexhamHermitage1,54541445456672130001,042
WrexhamHolt2,3448984131001012939001,580
WrexhamLittle Acton1,62154635477682028001,093
WrexhamLlay3,3819151,0071201424256002,282
WrexhamMaesydre1,3854373395858182400934
WrexhamMarford and Hoseley1,64760729393642330001,110
WrexhamOffa1,82753350369742429001,232
WrexhamQueensway1,89040768749732434001,274
WrexhamRhosnesni2,6378625761261183857001,777
WrexhamRossett2,251891354115892940001,518
WrexhamSmithfield1,89345963456772329001,278
WrexhamStansty1,4824024325763192500998
WrexhamWhitegate1,95347662962872537001,316
WrexhamWynnstay1,60431361742621928001,081
 Total49,73414,53613,4351,9602,0806418780033,530

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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