The predicted results in the country, given the National and Regional levels of support which you entered, are as follows.
Party | 2010 Votes | 2010 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CON | 37.0% | 307 | 39.1% | 50 | 73 | -23 | 284 |
LAB | 29.7% | 258 | 38.0% | 86 | 67 | +19 | 277 |
LIB | 23.6% | 57 | 7.3% | 0 | 54 | -54 | 3 |
UKIP | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
Green | 1.0% | 1 | 4.3% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
SNP | 1.7% | 6 | 0.0% | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
PlaidC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Other | 3.4% | 0 | 11.3% | 68 | 0 | +68 | 68 |
N.Ire | 18 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
The prediction was made with the following information about Regional support. The table shows the support levels entered and the difference in swing implied by those levels compared with that inferred from the national support figures (marked 'SD' for swing-difference).
Area | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | UKIP % | Green % | NAT % | Weight % | CON SD% | LAB SD% | LIB SD% | UKIP SD% | Green SD% | NAT SD% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scotland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.5 | 15.1 | -16.2 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | -19.9 |
North East | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | -9.5 | -35.4 | -2.9 | 0.5 | -0.5 | ||
North West | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.3 | 8.4 | -5.1 | 4.1 | -0.0 | 1.8 | ||
Yorks/Humber | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | -1.9 | -9.4 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | ||
Wales | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.1 | -8.0 | -24.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | -0.0 | -11.3 |
West Midlands | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.1 | -5.3 | -2.3 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 2.9 | ||
East Midlands | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.7 | -12.7 | -7.3 | 3.8 | -0.1 | 1.8 | ||
Anglia | 46.0 | 32.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 15.2 | -7.8 | -1.1 | -4.8 | ||
South West | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.6 | -6.8 | 14.7 | -8.1 | -1.3 | 2.6 | ||
London | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.7 | 6.3 | -1.7 | 3.0 | 1.4 | -0.1 | ||
South East | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.8 | -4.5 | 23.4 | -5.4 | -1.0 | -4.8 | ||
Average | 39.1 | 38.0 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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Seat | County/Area | Predicted Change | MP as at 2010 | ||
Aberavon | West Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Hywel Francis |
Aberconwy | Clwyd | OTH | gain from | CON | Guto Bebb |
Aberdeen South | Grampian | CON | gain from | LAB | Anne Begg |
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Grampian | CON | gain from | LIB | Sir Robert Smith |
Aldershot | Hampshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Gerald Howarth |
Alyn and Deeside | Clwyd | OTH | gain from | LAB | Mark Tami |
Amber Valley | Derbyshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Nigel Mills |
Angus | Tayside | CON | gain from | SNP | Michael Weir |
Arfon | Gwynedd | OTH | gain from | Plaid | Hywel Williams |
Argyll and Bute | Argyll and Bute | CON | gain from | LIB | Alan Reid |
Ayr Carrick and Cumnock | Ayrshire and Lanark | CON | gain from | LAB | Sandra Osborne |
Banff and Buchan | Grampian | CON | gain from | SNP | Eilidh Whiteford |
Bath | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | LIB | Don Foster |
Bedford | Bedfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Richard Fuller |
Bermondsey and Old Southwark | Southwark | LAB | gain from | LIB | Simon Hughes |
Berwick-upon-Tweed | Northumberland | OTH | gain from | LIB | Alan Beith |
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Borders | CON | gain from | LIB | Michael Moore |
Birmingham Yardley | Birmingham | LAB | gain from | LIB | John Hemming |
Bishop Auckland | Durham | OTH | gain from | LAB | Helen Goodman |
Blackpool South | Lancashire | CON | gain from | LAB | Gordon Marsden |
Blaenau Gwent | Gwent | OTH | gain from | LAB | Nick Smith |
Blaydon | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | David Anderson |
Blyth Valley | Northumberland | OTH | gain from | LAB | Ronnie Campbell |
Bolton West | Western Manchester | CON | gain from | LAB | Julie Hilling |
Bradford East | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | LIB | David Ward |
Brecon and Radnorshire | Powys | OTH | gain from | LIB | Roger Williams |
Brent Central | Brent | LAB | gain from | LIB | Sarah Teather |
Bridgend | Mid Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Madeleine Moon |
Brighton Kemptown | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | Simon Kirby |
Brighton Pavilion | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | Green | Caroline Lucas |
Bristol North West | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | Charlotte Leslie |
Bristol West | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | LIB | Stephen Williams |
Broxtowe | Nottinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Anna Soubry |
Buckingham | Buckinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | John Bercow |
Burnley | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | LIB | Gordon Birtwistle |
Bury South | Western Manchester | CON | gain from | LAB | Ivan Lewis |
Caerphilly | Gwent | OTH | gain from | LAB | Wayne David |
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross | Highland | CON | gain from | LIB | John Thurso |
Camborne and Redruth | Cornwall | LAB | gain from | CON | George Eustice |
Cambridge | Cambridgeshire | LAB | gain from | LIB | Julian Huppert |
Cannock Chase | Staffordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Aidan Burley |
Canterbury | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Julian Brazier |
Cardiff Central | South Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LIB | Jenny Willott |
Cardiff North | South Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | CON | Jonathan Evans |
Cardiff South and Penarth | South Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Alun Michael |
Cardiff West | South Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Kevin Brennan |
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr | Dyfed | OTH | gain from | Plaid | Jonathan Edwards |
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South | Dyfed | OTH | gain from | CON | Simon Hart |
Carshalton and Wallington | Sutton | CON | gain from | LIB | Tom Brake |
Ceredigion | Dyfed | OTH | gain from | LIB | Mark Williams |
Chatham and Aylesford | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Tracey Crouch |
Cheadle | Eastern Manchester | CON | gain from | LIB | Mark Hunter |
Cheltenham | Gloucestershire | CON | gain from | LIB | Martin Horwood |
Chippenham | Wiltshire | CON | gain from | LIB | Duncan Hames |
Chorley | Lancashire | CON | gain from | LAB | Lindsay Hoyle |
Clwyd South | Clwyd | OTH | gain from | LAB | Susan Elan Jones |
Clwyd West | Clwyd | OTH | gain from | CON | David Jones |
Colchester | Essex | LAB | gain from | LIB | Bob Russell |
Corby | Northamptonshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Louise Bagshaw |
Cornwall North | Cornwall | CON | gain from | LIB | Dan Rogerson |
Crawley | West Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | Henry Smith |
Cynon Valley | Mid Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Ann Clwyd |
Darlington | Durham | OTH | gain from | LAB | Jenny Chapman |
Dartford | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Gareth Johnson |
Delyn | Clwyd | OTH | gain from | LAB | David Hanson |
Devon North | Devon | LAB | gain from | LIB | Nick Harvey |
Dorset Mid and Poole North | Dorset | CON | gain from | LIB | Annette Brooke |
Dorset South | Dorset | LAB | gain from | CON | Richard Drax |
Dover | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Charlie Elphicke |
Dudley South | Black Country | LAB | gain from | CON | Chris Kelly |
Dumfries and Galloway | Dumfries and Galloway | CON | gain from | LAB | Russell Brown |
Dunbartonshire East | Glasgow area | CON | gain from | LIB | Jo Swinson |
Dundee East | Tayside | CON | gain from | SNP | Stewart Hosie |
Durham North | Durham | OTH | gain from | LAB | Kevan Jones |
Durham North West | Durham | OTH | gain from | LAB | Pat Glass |
Durham, City of | Durham | OTH | gain from | LAB | Roberta Blackman-Woods |
Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Gwynedd | OTH | gain from | Plaid | Elfyn Llwyd |
Easington | Durham | OTH | gain from | LAB | Grahame Morris |
Eastbourne | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | LIB | Stephen Lloyd |
Eastleigh | Hampshire | LAB | gain from | LIB | Christopher Huhne |
Edinburgh South | Edinburgh area | CON | gain from | LAB | Ian Murray |
Edinburgh South West | Edinburgh area | CON | gain from | LAB | Alistair Darling |
Edinburgh West | Edinburgh area | CON | gain from | LIB | Michael Crockart |
Erewash | Derbyshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Jessica Lee |
Fife North East | Fife | CON | gain from | LIB | Sir Menzies Campbell |
Filton and Bradley Stoke | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | Jack Lopresti |
Folkestone and Hythe | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Damian Collins |
Forest of Dean | Gloucestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | Mark Harper |
Gateshead | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | Ian Mearns |
Gillingham and Rainham | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Rehman Chishti |
Gloucester | Gloucestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | Richard Graham |
Gordon | Grampian | CON | gain from | LIB | Malcolm Bruce |
Gower | West Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Martin Caton |
Gravesham | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Adam Holloway |
Halesowen and Rowley Regis | Black Country | LAB | gain from | CON | James Morris |
Hampstead and Kilburn | Camden | CON | gain from | LAB | Glenda Jackson |
Hartlepool | Teesside | OTH | gain from | LAB | Iain Wright |
Hastings and Rye | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | Amber Rudd |
Hazel Grove | Eastern Manchester | CON | gain from | LIB | Andrew Stunell |
Hexham | Northumberland | OTH | gain from | CON | Guy Opperman |
High Peak | Derbyshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Andrew Bingham |
Hornsey and Wood Green | Haringey | LAB | gain from | LIB | Lynne Featherstone |
Houghton and Sunderland South | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | Bridget Phillipson |
Hove | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | Mike Weatherley |
Hyndburn | Lancashire | CON | gain from | LAB | Graham Jones |
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey | Highland | CON | gain from | LIB | Danny Alexander |
Ipswich | Suffolk | LAB | gain from | CON | Ben Gummer |
Isle of Wight | Hampshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Andrew Turner |
Islwyn | Gwent | OTH | gain from | LAB | Christopher Evans |
Jarrow | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | Stephen Hepburn |
Kingston and Surbiton | Kingston Upon Thames | CON | gain from | LIB | Edward Davey |
Kingswood | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | Chris Skidmore |
Leeds North West | West Yorkshire | CON | gain from | LIB | Greg Mulholland |
Lewes | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | LIB | Norman Baker |
Lincoln | Lincolnshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Karl McCartney |
Llanelli | Dyfed | OTH | gain from | LAB | Nia Griffith |
Loughborough | Leicestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | Nicky Morgan |
Maidstone and The Weald | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Helen Grant |
Manchester Withington | Central Manchester | LAB | gain from | LIB | John Leech |
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney | Mid Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Dai Havard |
Middlesbrough | Teesside | OTH | gain from | LAB | Sir Stuart Bell |
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East | Teesside | OTH | gain from | LAB | Tom Blenkinsop |
Milton Keynes North | Buckinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Mark Lancaster |
Milton Keynes South | Buckinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Iain Stewart |
Montgomeryshire | Powys | OTH | gain from | CON | Glyn Davies |
Moray | Grampian | CON | gain from | SNP | Angus Robertson |
Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Western Isles | CON | gain from | SNP | Angus MacNeil |
Neath | West Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Peter Hain |
Newcastle upon Tyne Central | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | Chi Onwurah |
Newcastle upon Tyne East | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | Nick Brown |
Newcastle upon Tyne North | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | Catherine McKinnell |
Newport East | Gwent | OTH | gain from | LAB | Jessica Morden |
Newport West | Gwent | OTH | gain from | LAB | Paul Flynn |
Norfolk North | Norfolk | CON | gain from | LIB | Norman Lamb |
Northampton North | Northamptonshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Michael Ellis |
Norwich North | Norfolk | LAB | gain from | CON | Chloe Smith |
Norwich South | Norfolk | LAB | gain from | LIB | Simon Wright |
Nuneaton | Warwickshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Marcus Jones |
Ochil and South Perthshire | Central | CON | gain from | LAB | Gordon Banks |
Ogmore | Mid Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Huw Irranca-Davies |
Oldham East and Saddleworth | Eastern Manchester | CON | gain from | LAB | Phil Woolas |
Oxford West and Abingdon | Oxfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Nicola Blackwood |
Perth and North Perthshire | Tayside | CON | gain from | SNP | Peter Wishart |
Peterborough | Cambridgeshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Stewart Jackson |
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Devon | LAB | gain from | CON | Oliver Colvile |
Pontypridd | Mid Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Owen Smith |
Portsmouth North | Hampshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Penny Mordaunt |
Portsmouth South | Hampshire | LAB | gain from | LIB | Mike Hancock |
Preseli Pembrokeshire | Dyfed | OTH | gain from | CON | Stephen Crabb |
Reading East | Berkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Rob Wilson |
Reading West | Berkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Alok Sharma |
Redcar | Teesside | OTH | gain from | LIB | Ian Swales |
Rhondda | Mid Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Chris Bryant |
Rochester and Strood | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Mark Reckless |
Sedgefield | Durham | OTH | gain from | LAB | Phil Wilson |
Sherwood | Nottinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Mark Spencer |
Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Gordon Henderson |
Solihull | Coventry and Solihull | CON | gain from | LIB | Lorely Burt |
Somerset North East | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | Jacob Rees-Mogg |
Somerton and Frome | Somerset | CON | gain from | LIB | David Heath |
South Shields | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | David Miliband |
Southport | Merseyside | CON | gain from | LIB | John Pugh |
Spelthorne | Surrey | LAB | gain from | CON | Kwasi Kwarteng |
St Austell and Newquay | Cornwall | CON | gain from | LIB | Stephen Gilbert |
St Ives | Cornwall | LAB | gain from | LIB | Andrew George |
Stalybridge and Hyde | Eastern Manchester | CON | gain from | LAB | Jonathan Reynolds |
Stevenage | Hertfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Stephen McPartland |
Stirling | Central | CON | gain from | LAB | Anne McGuire |
Stockton North | Teesside | OTH | gain from | LAB | Alex Cunningham |
Stockton South | Teesside | OTH | gain from | CON | James Wharton |
Stroud | Gloucestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | Neil Carmichael |
Sunderland Central | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | Julie Elliott |
Sutton and Cheam | Sutton | CON | gain from | LIB | Paul Burstow |
Swansea East | West Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Sian James |
Swansea West | West Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | LAB | Geraint Davies |
Swindon North | Wiltshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Justin Tomlinson |
Swindon South | Wiltshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Robert Buckland |
Taunton Deane | Somerset | CON | gain from | LIB | Jeremy Browne |
Thanet South | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Laura Sandys |
Thornbury and Yate | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | LIB | Steve Webb |
Thurrock | Essex | LAB | gain from | CON | Jackie Doyle-Price |
Torbay | Devon | LAB | gain from | LIB | Adrian Sanders |
Torfaen | Gwent | OTH | gain from | LAB | Paul Murphy |
Twickenham | Richmond Upon Thames | CON | gain from | LIB | Vincent Cable |
Tynemouth | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | Alan Campbell |
Tyneside North | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | Mary Glindon |
Vale of Clwyd | Clwyd | OTH | gain from | LAB | Chris Ruane |
Vale of Glamorgan | South Glamorgan | OTH | gain from | CON | Alun Cairns |
Wansbeck | Northumberland | OTH | gain from | LAB | Ian Lavery |
Warwick and Leamington | Warwickshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Chris White |
Warwickshire North | Warwickshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Dan Byles |
Washington and Sunderland West | Newcastle area | OTH | gain from | LAB | Sharon Hodgson |
Watford | Hertfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Richard Harrington |
Waveney | Suffolk | LAB | gain from | CON | Peter Aldous |
Wells | Somerset | CON | gain from | LIB | Tessa Munt |
Westmorland and Lonsdale | Cumbria | CON | gain from | LIB | Tim Farron |
Wirral South | Merseyside | CON | gain from | LAB | Alison McGovern |
Wolverhampton South West | Black Country | LAB | gain from | CON | Paul Uppal |
Worcester | Hereford and Worcestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | Robin Walker |
Worthing East and Shoreham | West Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | Tim Loughton |
Wrexham | Clwyd | OTH | gain from | LAB | Ian Lucas |
Wycombe | Buckinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Steven Baker |
Yeovil | Somerset | LAB | gain from | LIB | David Laws |
Ynys Mon | Gwynedd | OTH | gain from | LAB | Albert Owen |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.
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