User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National and Regional levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National and Regional Prediction: Conservative short 42 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.0%307 39.1%5073-23284
LAB 29.7%258 38.0%8667+19277
LIB 23.6%57 7.3%054-543
UKIP 3.2%0 0.0%00+00
Green 1.0%1 4.3%01-10
SNP 1.7%6 0.0%06-60
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.0%03-30
Other 3.4%0 11.3%680+6868
N.Ire 18 00+018

The prediction was made with the following information about Regional support. The table shows the support levels entered and the difference in swing implied by those levels compared with that inferred from the national support figures (marked 'SD' for swing-difference).

AreaCON %LAB %LIB %UKIP %Green %NAT %Weight % CON SD%LAB SD%LIB SD%UKIP SD%Green SD%NAT SD%
Scotland0.00.00.00.00.00.08.515.1-16.26.62.52.3-19.9
North East0.00.00.00.00.04.1-9.5-35.4-2.90.5-0.5
North West0.00.00.00.00.011.38.4-5.14.1-0.01.8
Yorks/Humber0.00.00.00.00.08.3-1.9-9.42.30.32.0
Wales0.00.00.00.00.00.05.1-8.0-24.31.60.7-0.0-11.3
West Midlands0.00.00.00.00.09.1-5.3-2.35.7-0.82.9
East Midlands0.00.00.00.00.07.7-12.7-7.33.8-0.11.8
Anglia46.032.018.00.00.09.97.615.2-7.8-1.1-4.8
South West0.00.00.00.00.09.6-6.814.7-8.1-1.32.6
London0.00.00.00.00.011.76.3-1.73.01.4-0.1
South East0.00.00.00.00.014.8-4.523.4-5.4-1.0-4.8
Average39.138.07.30.04.3100.00.00.00.00.00.0

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2010
AberavonWest GlamorganOTHgain fromLABHywel Francis
AberconwyClwydOTHgain fromCONGuto Bebb
Aberdeen SouthGrampianCONgain fromLABAnne Begg
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianCONgain fromLIBSir Robert Smith
AldershotHampshireLABgain fromCONGerald Howarth
Alyn and DeesideClwydOTHgain fromLABMark Tami
Amber ValleyDerbyshireLABgain fromCONNigel Mills
AngusTaysideCONgain fromSNPMichael Weir
ArfonGwyneddOTHgain fromPlaidHywel Williams
Argyll and ButeArgyll and ButeCONgain fromLIBAlan Reid
Ayr Carrick and CumnockAyrshire and LanarkCONgain fromLABSandra Osborne
Banff and BuchanGrampianCONgain fromSNPEilidh Whiteford
BathBristol areaLABgain fromLIBDon Foster
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCONRichard Fuller
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkSouthwarkLABgain fromLIBSimon Hughes
Berwick-upon-TweedNorthumberlandOTHgain fromLIBAlan Beith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromLIBMichael Moore
Birmingham YardleyBirminghamLABgain fromLIBJohn Hemming
Bishop AucklandDurhamOTHgain fromLABHelen Goodman
Blackpool SouthLancashireCONgain fromLABGordon Marsden
Blaenau GwentGwentOTHgain fromLABNick Smith
BlaydonNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABDavid Anderson
Blyth ValleyNorthumberlandOTHgain fromLABRonnie Campbell
Bolton WestWestern ManchesterCONgain fromLABJulie Hilling
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIBDavid Ward
Brecon and RadnorshirePowysOTHgain fromLIBRoger Williams
Brent CentralBrentLABgain fromLIBSarah Teather
BridgendMid GlamorganOTHgain fromLABMadeleine Moon
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCONSimon Kirby
Brighton PavilionEast SussexLABgain fromGreenCaroline Lucas
Bristol North WestBristol areaLABgain fromCONCharlotte Leslie
Bristol WestBristol areaLABgain fromLIBStephen Williams
BroxtoweNottinghamshireLABgain fromCONAnna Soubry
BuckinghamBuckinghamshireLABgain fromCONJohn Bercow
BurnleyLancashireLABgain fromLIBGordon Birtwistle
Bury SouthWestern ManchesterCONgain fromLABIvan Lewis
CaerphillyGwentOTHgain fromLABWayne David
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossHighlandCONgain fromLIBJohn Thurso
Camborne and RedruthCornwallLABgain fromCONGeorge Eustice
CambridgeCambridgeshireLABgain fromLIBJulian Huppert
Cannock ChaseStaffordshireLABgain fromCONAidan Burley
CanterburyKentLABgain fromCONJulian Brazier
Cardiff CentralSouth GlamorganOTHgain fromLIBJenny Willott
Cardiff NorthSouth GlamorganOTHgain fromCONJonathan Evans
Cardiff South and PenarthSouth GlamorganOTHgain fromLABAlun Michael
Cardiff WestSouth GlamorganOTHgain fromLABKevin Brennan
Carmarthen East and DinefwrDyfedOTHgain fromPlaidJonathan Edwards
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthDyfedOTHgain fromCONSimon Hart
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIBTom Brake
CeredigionDyfedOTHgain fromLIBMark Williams
Chatham and AylesfordKentLABgain fromCONTracey Crouch
CheadleEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLIBMark Hunter
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONgain fromLIBMartin Horwood
ChippenhamWiltshireCONgain fromLIBDuncan Hames
ChorleyLancashireCONgain fromLABLindsay Hoyle
Clwyd SouthClwydOTHgain fromLABSusan Elan Jones
Clwyd WestClwydOTHgain fromCONDavid Jones
ColchesterEssexLABgain fromLIBBob Russell
CorbyNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCONLouise Bagshaw
Cornwall NorthCornwallCONgain fromLIBDan Rogerson
CrawleyWest SussexLABgain fromCONHenry Smith
Cynon ValleyMid GlamorganOTHgain fromLABAnn Clwyd
DarlingtonDurhamOTHgain fromLABJenny Chapman
DartfordKentLABgain fromCONGareth Johnson
DelynClwydOTHgain fromLABDavid Hanson
Devon NorthDevonLABgain fromLIBNick Harvey
Dorset Mid and Poole NorthDorsetCONgain fromLIBAnnette Brooke
Dorset SouthDorsetLABgain fromCONRichard Drax
DoverKentLABgain fromCONCharlie Elphicke
Dudley SouthBlack CountryLABgain fromCONChris Kelly
Dumfries and GallowayDumfries and GallowayCONgain fromLABRussell Brown
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaCONgain fromLIBJo Swinson
Dundee EastTaysideCONgain fromSNPStewart Hosie
Durham NorthDurhamOTHgain fromLABKevan Jones
Durham North WestDurhamOTHgain fromLABPat Glass
Durham, City ofDurhamOTHgain fromLABRoberta Blackman-Woods
Dwyfor MeirionnyddGwyneddOTHgain fromPlaidElfyn Llwyd
EasingtonDurhamOTHgain fromLABGrahame Morris
EastbourneEast SussexLABgain fromLIBStephen Lloyd
EastleighHampshireLABgain fromLIBChristopher Huhne
Edinburgh SouthEdinburgh areaCONgain fromLABIan Murray
Edinburgh South WestEdinburgh areaCONgain fromLABAlistair Darling
Edinburgh WestEdinburgh areaCONgain fromLIBMichael Crockart
ErewashDerbyshireLABgain fromCONJessica Lee
Fife North EastFifeCONgain fromLIBSir Menzies Campbell
Filton and Bradley StokeBristol areaLABgain fromCONJack Lopresti
Folkestone and HytheKentLABgain fromCONDamian Collins
Forest of DeanGloucestershireLABgain fromCONMark Harper
GatesheadNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABIan Mearns
Gillingham and RainhamKentLABgain fromCONRehman Chishti
GloucesterGloucestershireLABgain fromCONRichard Graham
GordonGrampianCONgain fromLIBMalcolm Bruce
GowerWest GlamorganOTHgain fromLABMartin Caton
GraveshamKentLABgain fromCONAdam Holloway
Halesowen and Rowley RegisBlack CountryLABgain fromCONJames Morris
Hampstead and KilburnCamdenCONgain fromLABGlenda Jackson
HartlepoolTeessideOTHgain fromLABIain Wright
Hastings and RyeEast SussexLABgain fromCONAmber Rudd
Hazel GroveEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLIBAndrew Stunell
HexhamNorthumberlandOTHgain fromCONGuy Opperman
High PeakDerbyshireLABgain fromCONAndrew Bingham
Hornsey and Wood GreenHaringeyLABgain fromLIBLynne Featherstone
Houghton and Sunderland SouthNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABBridget Phillipson
HoveEast SussexLABgain fromCONMike Weatherley
HyndburnLancashireCONgain fromLABGraham Jones
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyHighlandCONgain fromLIBDanny Alexander
IpswichSuffolkLABgain fromCONBen Gummer
Isle of WightHampshireLABgain fromCONAndrew Turner
IslwynGwentOTHgain fromLABChristopher Evans
JarrowNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABStephen Hepburn
Kingston and SurbitonKingston Upon ThamesCONgain fromLIBEdward Davey
KingswoodBristol areaLABgain fromCONChris Skidmore
Leeds North WestWest YorkshireCONgain fromLIBGreg Mulholland
LewesEast SussexLABgain fromLIBNorman Baker
LincolnLincolnshireLABgain fromCONKarl McCartney
LlanelliDyfedOTHgain fromLABNia Griffith
LoughboroughLeicestershireLABgain fromCONNicky Morgan
Maidstone and The WealdKentLABgain fromCONHelen Grant
Manchester WithingtonCentral ManchesterLABgain fromLIBJohn Leech
Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyMid GlamorganOTHgain fromLABDai Havard
MiddlesbroughTeessideOTHgain fromLABSir Stuart Bell
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastTeessideOTHgain fromLABTom Blenkinsop
Milton Keynes NorthBuckinghamshireLABgain fromCONMark Lancaster
Milton Keynes SouthBuckinghamshireLABgain fromCONIain Stewart
MontgomeryshirePowysOTHgain fromCONGlyn Davies
MorayGrampianCONgain fromSNPAngus Robertson
Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Western IslesCONgain fromSNPAngus MacNeil
NeathWest GlamorganOTHgain fromLABPeter Hain
Newcastle upon Tyne CentralNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABChi Onwurah
Newcastle upon Tyne EastNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABNick Brown
Newcastle upon Tyne NorthNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABCatherine McKinnell
Newport EastGwentOTHgain fromLABJessica Morden
Newport WestGwentOTHgain fromLABPaul Flynn
Norfolk NorthNorfolkCONgain fromLIBNorman Lamb
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCONMichael Ellis
Norwich NorthNorfolkLABgain fromCONChloe Smith
Norwich SouthNorfolkLABgain fromLIBSimon Wright
NuneatonWarwickshireLABgain fromCONMarcus Jones
Ochil and South PerthshireCentralCONgain fromLABGordon Banks
OgmoreMid GlamorganOTHgain fromLABHuw Irranca-Davies
Oldham East and SaddleworthEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLABPhil Woolas
Oxford West and AbingdonOxfordshireLABgain fromCONNicola Blackwood
Perth and North PerthshireTaysideCONgain fromSNPPeter Wishart
PeterboroughCambridgeshireLABgain fromCONStewart Jackson
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCONOliver Colvile
PontypriddMid GlamorganOTHgain fromLABOwen Smith
Portsmouth NorthHampshireLABgain fromCONPenny Mordaunt
Portsmouth SouthHampshireLABgain fromLIBMike Hancock
Preseli PembrokeshireDyfedOTHgain fromCONStephen Crabb
Reading EastBerkshireLABgain fromCONRob Wilson
Reading WestBerkshireLABgain fromCONAlok Sharma
RedcarTeessideOTHgain fromLIBIan Swales
RhonddaMid GlamorganOTHgain fromLABChris Bryant
Rochester and StroodKentLABgain fromCONMark Reckless
SedgefieldDurhamOTHgain fromLABPhil Wilson
SherwoodNottinghamshireLABgain fromCONMark Spencer
Sittingbourne and SheppeyKentLABgain fromCONGordon Henderson
SolihullCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLIBLorely Burt
Somerset North EastBristol areaLABgain fromCONJacob Rees-Mogg
Somerton and FromeSomersetCONgain fromLIBDavid Heath
South ShieldsNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABDavid Miliband
SouthportMerseysideCONgain fromLIBJohn Pugh
SpelthorneSurreyLABgain fromCONKwasi Kwarteng
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONgain fromLIBStephen Gilbert
St IvesCornwallLABgain fromLIBAndrew George
Stalybridge and HydeEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLABJonathan Reynolds
StevenageHertfordshireLABgain fromCONStephen McPartland
StirlingCentralCONgain fromLABAnne McGuire
Stockton NorthTeessideOTHgain fromLABAlex Cunningham
Stockton SouthTeessideOTHgain fromCONJames Wharton
StroudGloucestershireLABgain fromCONNeil Carmichael
Sunderland CentralNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABJulie Elliott
Sutton and CheamSuttonCONgain fromLIBPaul Burstow
Swansea EastWest GlamorganOTHgain fromLABSian James
Swansea WestWest GlamorganOTHgain fromLABGeraint Davies
Swindon NorthWiltshireLABgain fromCONJustin Tomlinson
Swindon SouthWiltshireLABgain fromCONRobert Buckland
Taunton DeaneSomersetCONgain fromLIBJeremy Browne
Thanet SouthKentLABgain fromCONLaura Sandys
Thornbury and YateBristol areaLABgain fromLIBSteve Webb
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCONJackie Doyle-Price
TorbayDevonLABgain fromLIBAdrian Sanders
TorfaenGwentOTHgain fromLABPaul Murphy
TwickenhamRichmond Upon ThamesCONgain fromLIBVincent Cable
TynemouthNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABAlan Campbell
Tyneside NorthNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABMary Glindon
Vale of ClwydClwydOTHgain fromLABChris Ruane
Vale of GlamorganSouth GlamorganOTHgain fromCONAlun Cairns
WansbeckNorthumberlandOTHgain fromLABIan Lavery
Warwick and LeamingtonWarwickshireLABgain fromCONChris White
Warwickshire NorthWarwickshireLABgain fromCONDan Byles
Washington and Sunderland WestNewcastle areaOTHgain fromLABSharon Hodgson
WatfordHertfordshireLABgain fromCONRichard Harrington
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCONPeter Aldous
WellsSomersetCONgain fromLIBTessa Munt
Westmorland and LonsdaleCumbriaCONgain fromLIBTim Farron
Wirral SouthMerseysideCONgain fromLABAlison McGovern
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryLABgain fromCONPaul Uppal
WorcesterHereford and WorcestershireLABgain fromCONRobin Walker
Worthing East and ShorehamWest SussexLABgain fromCONTim Loughton
WrexhamClwydOTHgain fromLABIan Lucas
WycombeBuckinghamshireLABgain fromCONSteven Baker
YeovilSomersetLABgain fromLIBDavid Laws
Ynys MonGwyneddOTHgain fromLABAlbert Owen

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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