2019 Opinion polls

2019 Final campaign opinion polls

Campaign Polls 2019

The final campaign opinion polls from December 2019 are listed here

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%UKIP%Green%Brexit%
ELECTION 20178 Jun 201743.541.07.61.91.7 
ICM Research06 Dec 2019 - 09 Dec 20192,011423612 23
YouGov04 Dec 2019 - 10 Dec 20195,00043.034.012.0  3.0 3.0
SavantaComRes/The Daily Telegraph09 Dec 2019 - 10 Dec 20192,051413612 23
BMG Research06 Dec 2019 - 11 Dec 20191,600413214 34
Deltapoll09 Dec 2019 - 11 Dec 20191,818453510 34
Kantar09 Dec 2019 - 11 Dec 20192,815443213 33
Opinium10 Dec 2019 - 11 Dec 20193,005453312 22
Panelbase10 Dec 2019 - 11 Dec 20193,174433411 34
Survation10 Dec 2019 - 11 Dec 20192,39545349 33
AVERAGE04 Dec 2019 - 11 Dec 201923,86943.333.911.7 0.0 2.7 3.2
Actual Result12 Dec 2019 44.733.011.80.12.82.1

The pollsters had only a small error in the gap between the Conservatives and Labour. They saw an average gap of 9.4%, but the actual gap of 11.7% was a little larger.

2019 Final campaign Scottish opinion polls

Scottish Opinion Polls 2017-2019

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%UKIP%Green%SNP%Brexit%
ELECTION 20178 Jun 201728.627.16.80.20.236.9 
Panelbase/Sunday Times20 Nov 2019 - 22 Nov 20191,009282011 0401
Ipsos-Mori/STV19 Nov 2019 - 25 Nov 20191,046261611 2441
YouGov/The Times29 Nov 2019 - 03 Dec 20191,002281512 144 
Panelbase/Sunday Times03 Dec 2019 - 06 Dec 20191,020292110 139 
Survation/The Courier10 Dec 2019 - 11 Dec 20191,01228207 1431
AVERAGE29 Nov 2019 - 11 Dec 20193,03428.318.79.70.01.042.00.3
Actual Result12 Dec 2019 25.118.69.50.11.045.00.5

There was a little error in the polls for Scottish voting intention as well. The lead of the SNP over the Conservatives was estimated at 13.7pc but the actual outcome had a lead of 19.9pc, which led to a better result for the SNP even than expected.

2019 Final campaign Northern Ireland opinion polls

Northern Ireland Opinion Polls 2017-2019

PollsterSample datesSample sizeDUP%SF%SDLP%UUP%Alliance%Green%
ELECTION 20178 Jun 201736.029.411.710.37.90.9
Survation/Channel 420 Oct 2018 - 02 Nov 20185553127111512 
European Elections23 May 2019 - 23 May 20191,0002222149192
LucidTalk/Sunday Times09 Aug 2019 - 12 Aug 20192,302292589211
LucidTalk/Remain United30 Oct 2019 - 01 Nov 20192,3862824149161
LucidTalk/Remain United27 Nov 2019 - 30 Nov 20192,31830251311160
AVERAGE27 Nov 2019 - 30 Nov 20192,3183025131116 0.1
Actual Result12 Dec 201930.622.814.911.716.80.2

The Northern Irish predictions were fairly good with all parties between within 2pc of their predicted result.


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