The final campaign opinion polls from July 2024 are listed here
| Pollster | Sample dates | Sample size | CON% | LAB% | LIB% | Reform% | Green% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELECTION 2019 | 12 Dec 2019 | 44.7 | 33.0 | 11.8 | 2.1 | 2.8 | |
| More in Common | 28 Jun 2024 - 30 Jun 2024 | 4,525 | 24 | 39 | 12 | 15 | 5 |
| JL Partners/The Rest Is Politics | 28 Jun 2024 - 01 Jul 2024 | 2,028 | 24 | 39 | 10 | 16 | 5 |
| Verian | 28 Jun 2024 - 01 Jul 2024 | 2,135 | 21 | 36 | 13 | 16 | 7 |
| Techne | 28 Jun 2024 - 02 Jul 2024 | 5,503 | 21.0 | 40.0 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 6.0 |
| BMG/The i | 30 Jun 2024 - 02 Jul 2024 | 1,854 | 22 | 39 | 11 | 16 | 7 |
| Whitestone Insight/Daily Express; Daily Mirror | 01 Jul 2024 - 02 Jul 2024 | 2,008 | 21 | 38 | 10 | 18 | 7 |
| People Polling/GB News | 02 Jul 2024 - 02 Jul 2024 | 1,260 | 16 | 36 | 10 | 20 | 9 |
| Deltapoll | 29 Jun 2024 - 03 Jul 2024 | 1,737 | 22 | 39 | 10 | 17 | 7 |
| Norstat | 01 Jul 2024 - 03 Jul 2024 | 3,134 | 24 | 37 | 11 | 16 | 6 |
| Opinium | 01 Jul 2024 - 03 Jul 2024 | 2,219 | 21 | 41 | 11 | 17 | 7 |
| Survation/Good Morning Britain | 01 Jul 2024 - 03 Jul 2024 | 1,679 | 20 | 38 | 12 | 17 | 7 |
| Savanta | 02 Jul 2024 - 03 Jul 2024 | 2,101 | 20 | 39 | 10 | 17 | 5 |
| We Think | 02 Jul 2024 - 03 Jul 2024 | 1,210 | 23 | 41 | 11 | 15 | 7 |
| AVERAGE | 28 Jun 2024 - 03 Jul 2024 | 31,393 | 21.8 | 38.8 | 11.0 | 16.4 | 6.3 |
| Actual Result | 04 Jul 2024 | 24.4 | 34.7 | 12.6 | 14.7 | 6.9 |
The pollsters had a noticeable error in the gap between Labour and Conservatives. The saw an average gap of 17pc, but the true gap was 10pc.
| Pollster | Sample dates | Sample size | CON% | LAB% | LIB% | Reform% | Green% | SNP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELECTION 2019 | 12 Dec 2019 | 25.1 | 18.6 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 45.0 | |
| Redfield and Wilton | 01 Jun 2024 - 02 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 17 | 39 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 |
| Ipsos/STV News | 03 Jun 2024 - 09 Jun 2024 | 1,136 | 13 | 36 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 36 |
| Opinium | 05 Jun 2024 - 10 Jun 2024 | 1,017 | 14 | 35 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| Norstat | 11 Jun 2024 - 14 Jun 2024 | 1,050 | 14 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| Savanta | 14 Jun 2024 - 18 Jun 2024 | 1,069 | 15 | 38 | 7 | 33 | ||
| Savanta/The Scotsman | 21 Jun 2024 - 25 Jun 2024 | 1,042 | 14 | 34 | 7 | 34 | ||
| Survation/Ballot Box Scotland | 21 Jun 2024 - 25 Jun 2024 | 1,022 | 14 | 37 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 31 |
| Norstat/The Sunday Times | 24 Jun 2024 - 26 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 13 | 35 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 31 |
| Redfield and Wilton | 26 Jun 2024 - 27 Jun 2024 | 1,200 | 11 | 38 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 32 |
| More in Common | 24 Jun 2024 - 28 Jun 2024 | 1,008 | 16 | 35 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| Savanta/The Scotsman | 28 Jun 2024 - 02 Jul 2024 | 1,083 | 15 | 31 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 34 |
| AVERAGE | 24 Jun 2024 - 02 Jul 2024 | 3,291 | 13.8 | 34.8 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 32.0 |
| Actual Result | 4 Jul 2024 | 12.7 | 35.3 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 30.0 |
There was little error in the polls for Scottish voting intention. The lead of Labour over the SNP was estimated at 3pc, but turned out to be 5pc. All parties were predicted correctly to within 2pc either way.
| Pollster | Sample dates | Sample size | DUP% | SF% | SDLP% | UUP% | Alliance% | TUV% | Green% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELECTION 2019 | 12 Dec 2019 | 30.6 | 22.8 | 14.9 | 11.7 | 16.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | |
| LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph | 10 May 2024 - 13 May 2024 | 3,316 | 20 | 26 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 1 |
| LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph | 08 Jun 2024 - 10 Jun 2024 | 3,634 | 21 | 24 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 5 | 1 |
| LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph | 24 Jun 2024 - 25 Jun 2024 | 3,859 | 21 | 23 | 14 | 13 | 18 | 4 | 1 |
| AVERAGE | 10 May 2024 - 25 Jun 2024 | 10,809 | 20.7 | 24.3 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 16.7 | 5.6 | 1.0 |
| Actual Result | 4 Jul 2024 | 22.1 | 27.0 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 15.0 | 6.2 | 0.2 |
The Northern Irish predictions were broadly accurate, when an average is taken over the three polls before the election. Most parties are within 2pc of their average poll level.