Brexit Podcast 24 October 2019

This page first posted 24 October 2019

1. Main Prediction

The Conservatives have continued to gain ground under Boris Johnson, with the new Brexit deal also helping them to gain support.

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 43.5%318 35.5%366
LAB 41.0%262 25.0%183
LIB 7.6%12 18.2%31
Brexit 0.0%0 11.6%0
Green 1.7%1 4.0%1
SNP 3.1%35 3.2%48
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.7%3
UKIP 1.9%0 0.8%0
Other 0.7%0 1.0%0
N.Ire 18 18

Prediction based on a poll-of-polls, using six polls (Opinium, ComRes, Panelbase, Survation, Deltapoll, YouGov) from 15-Oct-2019 to 21-Oct-2019, sampling 9,790 people.

This has the Conservatives around 10pc ahead of Labour with a predicted majority of 82 seats.

Along with polling uncertainty, two factors could change this result significantly. If there is strong 'ABC' (anyone but the Conservatives) tactical voting, then the result could be much closer and the Conservative majority could be wiped out. On the other hand, if there were a pre-election pact between the Conservatives and the Brexit party then the Conservative/Brexit alliance could have a majority of 200 seats or more.

2. Brexit Deal — public attitudes

There has been some polling on public attitudes to the new Brexit deal.

2.1 New Deal

Asked whether they support or oppose the new Brexit deal (or think MPs should support or oppose it), the public shows mild to moderate support for the new deal, albeit with a considerable number of undecideds.

SupportOpposeDon't Know

Source: Average of all four polls (Survation, Panelbase, ComRes, YouGov)

2.2 Another Referendum

Asked whether they support or oppose having a new referendum offering a choice between the new Brexit deal and Remain, the public has a slight bias against, but it is fairly close.

ReferendumNo ReferendumDon't Know

Source: Average of three polls (Survation, ComRes, YouGov)

2.3 Referendum Result

Assuming there would be a referendum offering people the choice between the new Brexit deal and Remain, how would they vote. We only have data from two pollsters, which suggests that it is fairly close, but more people who have made up their minds would choose to vote for the deal.

Leave with DealRemainDon't Know

Source: Average of two polls (Survation, ComRes)

The polls used were:

3. Brexit outcome probabilities

Following the new Brexit deal and the parliamentary deadlock, the chance of an extension and a new election have increased considerably.

EventImplied Probability
Brexit by June 202076pc
General election before Brexit73pc
General election in 201945pc
Deal to pass in 201929pc
Article 50 Revoked21pc
No Deal exit in 20194pc
Brexit by 31-Oct-20193pc

Source: Betfair Exchange (prices as at 23 October 2019, 16:50).

Brexit Outcome implied probabilities 24-Oct-2019

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