Psephology, Research and Models

Read about the technical details of the Electoral Calculus models, as well as our archive of topical psephological research.


STM Payoff Graph Strong Transition Model

Discover the main Electoral Calculus model for predicting elections.
Posted: 28 Oct 2007

Transition Graphic of Leave Voters New Model features 2017

Three new features to modelling seats more accurately, coming from the 2017 election campaign.
Posted: 23 May 2017

Lib Dem vote in Sheffield Hallam vs nationally The win chance paradox

An explanation to the often-asked question about why the predicted winner doesn't always have the largest chance of winning the seat.
Posted: 29 May 2017

Caroline Lucas and Douglas Carswell Shaped Strong Transition Model

This is a modification to the STM model which was introduced at the 2015 general election to help better predict UKIP and the Greens.

The model was successful and predicted correctly all the seats won by those parties (Clacton and Brighton Pavilion).
Photos: Steve Punter, Tanoshimi; Posted: 4 Apr 2015

Lib Dem Votes by Seat Graph Lib Dem Transition Analysis

This research was the catalyst for the Strong Transition Model, and identifies the problem with the uniform national swing model when a party declines by a significant amount.

The UNS model has a problem in this case and can understate the number of seats which the party will win.
Posted: 14 Oct 2007

TM(j,i) = (1 − P(j) / W(j)) × max(P(i) − W(i), 0) / Σm max(P(m) − W(m), 0), for ij.

New Boundaries Calculation Method

This gives a description of how the new boundary implied results are calculated based on a combination of general and local election results along with the details of the new seats' composition.
Posted: 29 Oct 2006

Tactical Vote Icon Tactical Voting Model

Tactical voting can be an important effect in some contests. This article describes the Electoral Calculus tactical voting model.

There is also a secondary article on the tactical model's parameters.
Posted: 2 Jan 2005

A(i,k) = C(i,k) * P(i) / E(i), if party i declines

A(i,k) = C(i,k) + Share(i) * SwingVoters(k), if party i increases

Transition Model

Of historical interest, this was the original Electoral Calculus model for predicting elections up until 2007.
Posted: 8 Jul 2004

Contemporary Psephological Research

Divided pollsters election predictions 2019 Who would win a general election?

Analysis of polls, predictions, regional swing, pollsters and the likely result.
Posted: 5 Sep 2019

Brexit Outcome implied probabilities 7-Aug-2019 Brexit Podcast Facts and Figures

Predictions, facts and figures behind Martin Baxter's appearance on Chopper's Brexit Podcast on 8 August 2019.
Posted: 8 Aug 2019

Welsh by-election in line with GE forecast

The Brecon and Radnorshire by-election result is consistent with Westminster polling as far as it goes.
Posted: 2 Aug 2019

'Boris Bounce' puts Conservatives back in the lead

Following his election, Boris Johnson has restored the Conservatives' fortunes, but not enough for a clear majority.
Posted: 29 Aug 2019

Labour Seat Sensitivity Pollsters divided on Labour's strength

Major pollsters disagree fundamentally about whether Labour is strong enough to win a general election. In a tight four-party race, the difference between the pollsters could make a crucial difference.
Posted: 23 Jul 2019

New prediction baseline for new political environment

The Electoral Calculus prediction baseline has been refreshed to give more accurate seat-by-seat predictions.
Posted: 20 Jun 2019

Brexit party ahead of Conservatives in latest three polls

After the EU elections, the Brexit party enjoys a strong showing in the Westminster opinion polls.
Posted: 3 Jun 2019

Seats won by Conservative and Brexit parties against their vote difference Brexit Podcast Facts and Figures

Predictions, facts and figures behind Martin Baxter's appearance on Chopper's Brexit Podcast on 28 May 2019.
Posted: 28 May 2019

Expected England seats won against Tactical Fraction EU Election Tactical Voting

Analysis of possible tactical voting strategies for the EU elections show that voters should concentrate their votes on one party.
Posted: 16 May 2019

Regression-based ComRes/ElCalc poll shows increased Labour lead

Working with ComRes, Electoral Calculus has prepared a regression-based poll to give a seat-by-seat prediction for the country.
Posted: 20 Apr 2019

Brexit outcome chances from the betting markets, 21 March 2019 Chopper's Facts and Figures

Predictions, facts and figures behind Martin Baxter's appearance on Chopper's Brexit Podcast on 21 March 2019.
Posted: 21 Mar 2019

YouGov poll boost puts TIG at 18pc

Now poll shows TIG surging in support.
Posted: 26 Feb 2019

Conservative majority predicted after Labour split

Electoral Calculus modelling of the new Independent Group of MPs and the impact it could have on British politics.
Posted: 20 Feb 2019

Poll on House of Lords Reform 2017 Lords Reform - Burns' Report

Analysis of the new report on limited House of Lords Reform from the Burns' Committee, which is well-thought out, as far as it goes.

Also analysis of the pressures for and against proper democratic reform of the Lords, and why a referendum is the best way forward.
Posted: 9 Nov 2017

Predicted Seats during 2017 Campaign New Polling Technology

The new polling technology, pioneered by YouGov, really does work for British elections. And it shows how the Conservatives really lost the 2017 election.

Also challenge it to Guess My Vote.
Posted: 12 Sep 2017

Swing 2015-2017 against Leave share Regression Analysis 2017

Analysis of voting patterns in 2017, regressed against census demographics reveal the Conservatives did well with the UK born, nationalist, leave voters.
Posted: 23 Jun 2017

Voters Astonish Pollsters

Initial analysis of the surprise election result in June 2017.
Posted: 10 Jun 2017

Prediction Accuracy

An assessment of the accuracy of polls and predictions published before the 2017 election results were known.
Posted: 8 Jun 2017

Election Battleground 7 June 2017 Updated Battleground

A revised version of the Battleground after the changes in the polls, and the divergence between the pollsters.
Posted: 7 Jun 2017

YouGov predicts Conservatives short a majority

New polling methodology from YouGov using regression techniques predicts that the Conservatives will not get a majority on 8 June.
Posted: 31 May 2017

Tories tipped to oust SNP deputy leader and take 11 seats

Martin Baxter speaks to the Scottish Sunday Mail with predictions for Scotland.
Posted: 14 May 2017

Progressive alliance would not stop Tory majority, study suggests

Michael Savage writes in the Observer about a new Electoral Calculus study which shows that even a full progressive alliance can't stop the Conservatives this year.
Posted: 14 May 2017

Greens and UKIP stand aside

After the close of nominations, UKIP and the Green party are not standing in many hundreds of seats. This could change the result in a few seats.
Posted: 8 May 2017

Making sense of the locals

Local elections are usually a poor guide to the subsequent general election. But can the locals be understood to give some idea of the next election result.
Posted: 6 May 2017

Lib Dems shouldn't count on Remain votes

Guardian columnist Martin Robbins and Martin Baxter explore whether or not the Conservatives might lose several seats to the Lib Dems due to "Remain Conservatives" switching sides.
Posted: 27 Apr 2017

2D Political Map with Osborne and May Public sees clear blue water between Osborne and May

Rare Westminster voting intention update from Scotland shows the Conservatives well ahead of Labour, but the SNP are still dominant.
Posted: 18 Mar 2017

Nicola Sturgeon and Ruth Davidson Scottish Polls

Rare Westminster voting intention update from Scotland shows the Conservatives well ahead of Labour, but the SNP are still dominant.
Photos: Scottish Government, Scottish Parliament, Posted: 5 Dec 2016

Edinburgh Castle New Boundaries Scotland

Announcement of the new seat boundaries for Scotland and their likely impact, following the publication of the initial proposals.
Photo: Christian Bickel, Posted: 20 Oct 2016

Paul Nuttall UKIP's Historic Chance

Now could be UKIP's historic moment, if they can sieze it. A realignment of British politics could be possible, but only if UKIP can get their act together.
Photo: Euro Realist Newsletter, Posted: 1 Oct 2016

Theresa May Election Soon?

New Boundaries don't matter – the Conservatives should think about an election soon. The new boundaries are less important than many people think. When the Conservatives are so far ahead, the new boundaries make much less difference.
Photo: Home Office, Posted: 16 Sep 2016

Newcastle upon Tyne New Boundaries England and Wales

Announcement of the new seat boundary analysis for England and Wales following publication of the initial proposals by the respective Boundary Commissions.
Photo: Tagishsimon, Posted: 15 Sep 2016

Stormont Castle NI Boundary Shake-up

Announcement of the new seat boundary analysis for Northern Ireland following publication of the initial proposals. The UUP is predicted to be wiped out as Sinn Fein makes gains.
Photo: Robert Paul Young, Posted: 7 Sep 2016

Jeremy Corbyn Splitting could be Mortal for Labour

As the prospects of a Labour split increased, this article looks at the likely electoral impact of having two competing Labour parties.
Photo: RevolutionBahrain, Posted: 17 Aug 2016

Liverpool skyline New Boundary Changes

Advance analysis of the impact from an esimate of the likely proposals from the Boundary Commissions.
Photo: G-Man, Posted: 8 Aug 2016

Voter Migration Graphic Aug 2016 Voter Migration from May 2015 to August 2016

Update of the popular voter migration graphic to show changes in popular support for the six big parties.
Image: ©Electoral Calculus, Posted: 7 Aug 2016

Psephological Research Archive

Voter migration 2010-2015 graphic Voter Migration 2010-2015

Innovative graphic showing how voters moved from party to party between the two elections.
Posted: 30 May 2015

Tactical Vote Icon UKIP Tactical Voting

Analysis of whether tactical voting could help UKIP suggests actually that it might hurt them.
Posted: 14 Dec 2014

Two-dimensional Political Battleground Hung Parliament Battleground

Two-dimensional political map showing the possible outcomes from the next election.
Posted: 13 Dec 2014

Two-dimensional Political Frontiers Mid-term precedents: can the Conservatives win?

In the run up to the 2015 election, this imaginative graphic shows the two-dimensional political frontiers between the various possible outcomes, plus the historical precedents.
Posted: 6 Sep 2013

Nigel Farage UKIP - Initial Electoral Analysis

Analysis of possible outcomes for UKIP and how hard it is for them to win many seats.
Photo: David Iliff, CC-BY-SA 3.0, Posted: 5 May 2013

House of Lords Lords Reform - Analysis of Voting Systems

Research looking at the practical effects of possible election models for the Lords.
Photo: ©Parliamentary copyright, Posted: 1 Jan 2013

Constituency size deviation Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill - Analysis of Boundaries

Research and commentary into the proposals to reduce seats from 650 to 600 and make them much more similar in size.
Posted: 12 Sep 2010

Alternative Vote First and Second Preferences May 2010 Alternative Vote System

Research into the likely effects of the Alternative Vote, if applied to Westminster elections.
Posted: 23 Dec 2010

Sporting Index 2010 seats market Campaign Model 2010

New special model features introduced for the 2010 election including regional swing and spread betting.
Posted: 24 Apr 2010

Likelihoods of election outcomes Hung Parliament: How likely is it?

Using advanced mathematical models, Electoral Calculus estimates the probabilities of various outcomes of the general election.
Posted: 27 Nov 2009

General Elections: Swing and Changed Seats Safe Seats: Are MPs really at risk?

Analysis of which Westminister seats can really change hands, and which are safe.

Also Safe seat scenarios.
Posted: 13 Sep 2009

Swing-o-meter graphic Predicting Regional Swing

Analysis of Regional Swing using a large YouGov poll showing regional variations.
Posted: 22 Aug 2009

Conservative marginals Con-Lab Gap Analysis

Influential research into why the Conservatives need more votes than Labour to form a government.
Posted: 3 Sep 2006

Tony Blair (2005) Election 2005: What can happen?

Analysis of possible outcomes of the 2005 election. It predicts (correctly) that Labour will retain a comfortable majority.
Photo: Remy Steinegger, Posted: 1 May 2005

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