Swing Plot 1992-1997

The chart below shows the swings recorded in each of the 19 mainland regions between the 1992 and 1997 elections. Each region is represented by one point. The x co-ordinate of the point is the swing to or against the Conservatives, the y co-ordinate is the swing to or against the Labour party. A positive number represents a swing towards, and a negative number a swing against.

Election Swing Plot 1992-1997

We see that the swings are all away from Conservative and towards Labour. The swings are not very dispersed, but are fairly tightly clustered in the same area. This is consistent with the Uniform National Swing assumption. It is this assumption which is the basis for the Battlemap calculations.

We can also see the data in tabular form:

Region 1992 Election 1997 Election Swing
CON%LAB%CON%LAB%CON%LAB%
East Scotland28.731.219.938.3-8.87.1
West Scotland22.347.614.853.9-7.56.3
North33.450.622.260.9-11.210.3
Lancashire37.345.027.355.3-10.010.3
Greater Manchester35.547.324.156.3-11.39.0
Yorkshire42.239.632.048.1-10.28.5
Humberside37.745.027.352.4-10.47.4
West Midlands42.144.029.853.3-12.39.3
East Midlands45.039.533.149.7-11.810.2
Severn46.035.735.744.0-10.38.4
Wales28.649.519.654.7-9.05.2
East Anglia51.529.439.040.5-12.611.1
Essex54.323.341.136.3-13.213.0
West47.923.836.933.1-11.09.3
North London43.941.030.054.2-14.013.3
South London46.633.532.345.2-14.411.7
South West48.015.736.921.0-11.15.3
South55.916.942.726.0-13.29.1
South East54.120.341.332.0-12.811.7
Total42.835.231.444.4-11.49.2

Details of the regions' makeup can be seen here. Compare with the 1997-2001 swing.