East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 50.7%31 48.1%00+031
LAB 40.5%15 39.3%00+015
LIB 4.3%0 5.3%00+00
UKIP 2.4%0 3.8%00+00
Green 1.5%0 2.3%00+00
Minor 0.6%0 1.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Amber Valley (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Lincoln (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
30540Leicester South Jon Ashworth75,53466.918.972.
37533Nottingham East Chris Leslie61,76263.719.
59511Leicester East Keith Vaz77,78867.421.665.
105465Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood71,17867.628.
123447Leicester West Liz Kendall64,83457.928.759.
127443Nottingham North Alex Norris66,89457.328.459.
146424Derby South Margaret Beckett69,91864.830.957.
166404Chesterfield Toby Perkins72,06366.532.
204366Bolsover Dennis Skinner73,42963.437.950.
214356Bassetlaw John Mann78,53566.540.651.
216354Gedling Vernon Coaker71,22172.640.
235335High Peak Ruth George73,25473.542.748.
237333Derby North Chris Williamson69,91969.641.847.
239331Lincoln Karen Lee73,11166.642.
249321Ashfield Gloria De Piero78,09964.
266304Broxtowe Anna Soubry74,01775.
271299Northampton North Michael Ellis58,18369.444.644.
272298Mansfield Ben Bradley77,81164.544.
276294Northampton South Andrew Lewer60,99367.344.
287283Corby Tom Pursglove82,43972.846.643.
294276Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,09769.946.642.
303267Loughborough Nicky Morgan79,60768.047.340.
308262Erewash Maggie Throup72,99168.249.541.
310260Sherwood Mark Spencer76,19670.048.940.
325245Rushcliffe Kenneth Clarke74,74078.
347223Amber Valley Nigel Mills68,06567.353.937.
368202Kettering Philip Hollobone71,52369.155.335.
369201Harborough Neil O'Brien78,64773.249.729.613.
375195Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler76,34168.956.
376194Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,46674.756.
381189Wellingborough Peter Bone79,25867.254.832.
394176Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen75,36271.055.632.
425145Derbyshire Dales Patrick McLoughlin64,41877.057.429.
430140Charnwood Edward Argar78,07170.757.829.
455115Bosworth David Tredinnick80,63369.754.122.918.
459111Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,89571.958.727.
462108Newark Robert Jenrick75,52672.960.
464106Gainsborough Edward Leigh75,89367.859.
48981Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom85,75675.859.826.
49377Grantham and Stamford Nick Boles81,76269.259.425.
50466Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,00666.861.325.
51852Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson90,92572.461.624.
52149Boston and Skegness Matt Warman68,39162.761.
52545Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris75,33573.961.
53238Rutland and Melton Alan Duncan78,46373.460.
5673South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes76,38165.967.319.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.