| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 29.4% | 15 | 17.5% | 0 | 14 | -14 | 1 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 29 | 20.2% | 0 | 23 | -23 | 6 |
| LIB | 6.4% | 0 | 10.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 18.9% | 2 | 37.7% | 37 | 0 | +37 | 39 |
| Green | 6.3% | 0 | 8.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 3.7% | 1 | 5.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Derbyshire South (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Broxtowe (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 391 | Nottingham East | Nadia Whittome | 69,395 | 52.5 | 8.3 | 31.9 | 9.5 | 19.2 | 18.9 | 12.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 86 | 369 | Nottingham South | Lilian Greenwood | 64,255 | 51.2 | 4.1 | 44.1 | 2.4 | 35.3 | 4.3 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 116 | 339 | Leicester West | Liz Kendall | 74,102 | 47.8 | 3.7 | 43.5 | 2.7 | 38.7 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 126 | 329 | Gedling | Michael Payne | 77,006 | 63.3 | 4.8 | 44.1 | 2.7 | 40.8 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 127 | 328 | Broxtowe | Juliet Campbell | 71,923 | 66.5 | 5.6 | 42.3 | 3.1 | 39.0 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 131 | 323 | Leicester South | Shockat Adam | 70,867 | 59.0 | 7.8 | 18.8 | 4.6 | 16.1 | 19.1 | 33.6 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 142 | 313 | Rushcliffe | James William Naish | 79,160 | 72.9 | 20.6 | 25.1 | 12.1 | 25.0 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 148 | 307 | Derby North | Catherine Atkinson | 71,900 | 56.9 | 4.7 | 41.9 | 2.6 | 42.3 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 158 | 297 | Chesterfield | Toby Perkins | 71,654 | 58.0 | 3.7 | 42.2 | 2.9 | 44.1 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 159 | 296 | Derby South | Baggy Shanker | 72,952 | 51.3 | 4.2 | 38.9 | 2.6 | 41.3 | 3.8 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 164 | 291 | Lincoln | Hamish Falconer | 72,313 | 58.3 | 4.6 | 40.6 | 2.8 | 43.9 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 178 | 277 | High Peak | Jonathan Brian Pearce | 74,385 | 66.2 | 12.7 | 32.1 | 6.3 | 37.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 179 | 276 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Alex Norris | 73,768 | 47.5 | 4.4 | 38.6 | 1.9 | 43.8 | 3.7 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 199 | 256 | Leicester East | Shivani Raja | 76,560 | 61.0 | 19.3 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 24.8 | 14.4 | 8.2 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 214 | 241 | Northampton North | Lucy Rigby | 75,575 | 55.3 | 4.3 | 38.8 | 2.9 | 47.2 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 224 | 231 | Loughborough | Jeevun Sandher | 68,996 | 61.2 | 16.2 | 24.8 | 9.2 | 34.4 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 225 | 230 | Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Neil O'Brien | 77,407 | 65.1 | 22.4 | 20.7 | 13.2 | 30.3 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 257 | 198 | Derbyshire Dales | John Michael Whitby | 73,317 | 69.9 | 21.3 | 20.4 | 13.8 | 32.7 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 270 | 185 | Erewash | Adam Thompson | 71,497 | 60.2 | 5.4 | 35.7 | 2.9 | 49.2 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 294 | 161 | Bolsover | Natalie Fleet | 77,207 | 55.0 | 4.4 | 35.3 | 2.2 | 50.7 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 304 | 151 | Derbyshire Mid | Jonathan Peter Tom Davies | 69,281 | 68.6 | 20.7 | 19.2 | 11.0 | 35.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 310 | 145 | Newark | Robert Jenrick | 80,028 | 66.8 | 27.1 | 18.0 | 10.7 | 34.5 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 334 | 121 | Derbyshire South | Samantha Niblett | 73,714 | 62.0 | 17.7 | 20.9 | 9.9 | 39.8 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 343 | 112 | Leicestershire Mid | Peter Bedford | 75,933 | 63.3 | 21.7 | 18.3 | 10.3 | 37.8 | 9.2 | 2.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 351 | 104 | Derbyshire North East | Louise Elizabeth Jones | 73,139 | 62.7 | 18.6 | 20.3 | 9.9 | 40.3 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 353 | 102 | Sherwood Forest | Michelle Welsh | 78,894 | 61.7 | 18.1 | 19.7 | 9.0 | 39.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 369 | 86 | Amber Valley | Linsey Farnsworth | 71,546 | 59.4 | 6.2 | 31.4 | 3.4 | 52.4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 372 | 83 | Leicestershire North West | Amanda Hack | 77,757 | 62.5 | 18.1 | 19.6 | 9.6 | 41.1 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 374 | 81 | Northampton South | Mike Reader | 70,393 | 62.4 | 17.5 | 18.9 | 11.2 | 40.6 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 378 | 77 | Northamptonshire South | Sarah Bool | 78,233 | 68.6 | 24.9 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 37.4 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 384 | 71 | Gainsborough | Sir Edward Leigh | 75,836 | 61.6 | 22.5 | 16.7 | 13.4 | 39.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 387 | 68 | Bassetlaw | Jo White | 78,173 | 57.4 | 12.0 | 24.4 | 6.9 | 47.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 388 | 67 | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lee Barron | 78,787 | 62.9 | 18.1 | 18.8 | 10.2 | 41.9 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 397 | 58 | Kettering | Rosie Wrighting | 79,390 | 63.3 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 8.3 | 40.4 | 13.6 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 400 | 55 | Leicestershire South | Alberto Costa | 78,543 | 65.4 | 25.1 | 13.7 | 14.5 | 38.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 404 | 51 | Hinckley and Bosworth | Luke Evans | 76,431 | 62.5 | 20.1 | 13.2 | 21.5 | 38.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 405 | 50 | Daventry | Stuart Andrew | 80,879 | 65.6 | 19.8 | 15.2 | 15.0 | 40.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 416 | 38 | Rutland and Stamford | Alicia Kearns | 71,711 | 67.7 | 41.4 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 35.4 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 420 | 35 | Grantham and Bourne | Gareth Davies | 73,280 | 62.9 | 28.6 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 40.4 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 425 | 30 | Sleaford and North Hykeham | Caroline Johnson | 75,807 | 64.1 | 27.3 | 13.4 | 8.8 | 41.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 426 | 29 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Gen Kitchen | 77,559 | 56.7 | 16.2 | 17.7 | 8.9 | 46.0 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 427 | 28 | Mansfield | Steve Yemm | 73,817 | 55.7 | 15.3 | 19.2 | 7.8 | 47.5 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 428 | 27 | Melton and Syston | Edward Argar | 74,316 | 61.9 | 25.9 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 41.4 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 443 | 12 | Ashfield | Lee Anderson | 68,929 | 57.9 | 5.9 | 21.7 | 4.9 | 55.0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
| 449 | 6 | Louth and Horncastle | Victoria Atkins | 76,882 | 60.5 | 30.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 47.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 452 | 3 | South Holland and The Deepings | John Hayes | 78,473 | 58.5 | 33.6 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 48.7 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 453 | 2 | Boston and Skegness | Richard Tice | 75,811 | 53.4 | 23.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 57.0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.