| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 29.4% | 15 | 22.8% | 0 | 8 | -8 | 7 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 29 | 30.6% | 4 | 0 | +4 | 33 |
| LIB | 6.4% | 0 | 5.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 18.9% | 2 | 25.1% | 5 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| Green | 6.3% | 0 | 6.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 3.7% | 1 | 9.1% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Daventry (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Leicester South (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 369 | Nottingham East | Nadia Whittome | 69,395 | 52.5 | 12.6 | 45.4 | 3.7 | 12.7 | 17.4 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 74 | 348 | Leicester East | Shivani Raja | 76,560 | 61.0 | 38.0 | 34.2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 83 | 340 | Leicester South | Shockat Adam | 70,867 | 59.0 | 18.7 | 37.7 | 3.4 | 9.6 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 0.0 | MIN | LAB |
| 112 | 311 | Rushcliffe | James William Naish | 79,160 | 72.9 | 28.5 | 38.9 | 4.8 | 15.6 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 123 | 300 | High Peak | Jonathan Brian Pearce | 74,385 | 66.2 | 22.2 | 41.4 | 4.1 | 19.7 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 135 | 288 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Alex Norris | 73,768 | 47.5 | 8.0 | 47.5 | 1.3 | 26.8 | 4.6 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 142 | 281 | Nottingham South | Lilian Greenwood | 64,255 | 51.2 | 15.5 | 39.2 | 4.3 | 19.3 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 151 | 272 | Loughborough | Jeevun Sandher | 68,996 | 61.2 | 22.5 | 38.2 | 5.3 | 19.5 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 158 | 265 | Gedling | Michael Payne | 77,006 | 63.3 | 17.7 | 40.3 | 4.3 | 22.3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 175 | 248 | Leicester West | Liz Kendall | 74,102 | 47.8 | 15.7 | 37.2 | 5.0 | 20.6 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 177 | 246 | Chesterfield | Toby Perkins | 71,654 | 58.0 | 9.4 | 46.9 | 2.0 | 30.4 | 3.1 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 187 | 236 | Derby North | Catherine Atkinson | 71,900 | 56.9 | 18.2 | 38.0 | 4.5 | 22.4 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 221 | 202 | Lincoln | Hamish Falconer | 72,313 | 58.3 | 16.2 | 38.9 | 4.1 | 25.7 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 238 | 185 | Derby South | Baggy Shanker | 72,952 | 51.3 | 8.9 | 42.9 | 1.7 | 30.8 | 3.2 | 12.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 240 | 183 | Northampton North | Lucy Rigby | 75,575 | 55.3 | 19.7 | 35.1 | 3.8 | 23.2 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 248 | 174 | Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Neil O'Brien | 77,407 | 65.1 | 30.1 | 29.1 | 7.0 | 17.7 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 249 | 174 | Derbyshire South | Samantha Niblett | 73,714 | 62.0 | 23.4 | 35.5 | 4.3 | 24.1 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 251 | 172 | Erewash | Adam Thompson | 71,497 | 60.2 | 11.2 | 42.7 | 2.0 | 31.5 | 3.4 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 267 | 156 | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lee Barron | 78,787 | 62.9 | 24.9 | 33.8 | 4.3 | 23.6 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 274 | 149 | Northampton South | Mike Reader | 70,393 | 62.4 | 25.1 | 32.7 | 5.4 | 22.9 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 287 | 136 | Bassetlaw | Jo White | 78,173 | 57.4 | 16.5 | 38.9 | 2.7 | 30.0 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 288 | 135 | Kettering | Rosie Wrighting | 79,390 | 63.3 | 22.4 | 32.4 | 3.6 | 23.6 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 302 | 121 | Broxtowe | Juliet Campbell | 71,923 | 66.5 | 18.2 | 35.2 | 6.8 | 27.8 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 303 | 120 | Bolsover | Natalie Fleet | 77,207 | 55.0 | 6.3 | 44.7 | 0.6 | 37.5 | 1.1 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 314 | 109 | Derbyshire Mid | Jonathan Peter Tom Davies | 69,281 | 68.6 | 24.8 | 31.6 | 5.3 | 25.1 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 322 | 101 | Leicestershire Mid | Peter Bedford | 75,933 | 63.3 | 24.2 | 29.4 | 5.2 | 23.6 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 331 | 91 | Daventry | Stuart Andrew | 80,879 | 65.6 | 30.0 | 24.3 | 9.1 | 19.5 | 5.0 | 12.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 332 | 91 | Mansfield | Steve Yemm | 73,817 | 55.7 | 18.5 | 35.6 | 2.3 | 31.0 | 4.2 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 335 | 88 | Derbyshire Dales | John Michael Whitby | 73,317 | 69.9 | 26.8 | 29.4 | 7.8 | 24.9 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 336 | 87 | Amber Valley | Linsey Farnsworth | 71,546 | 59.4 | 6.3 | 43.2 | 0.6 | 38.8 | 0.9 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 337 | 86 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Gen Kitchen | 77,559 | 56.7 | 23.8 | 30.8 | 3.9 | 26.5 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 341 | 82 | Northamptonshire South | Sarah Bool | 78,233 | 68.6 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 6.6 | 23.2 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 344 | 79 | Sherwood Forest | Michelle Welsh | 78,894 | 61.7 | 19.4 | 34.6 | 4.1 | 31.1 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 349 | 74 | Derbyshire North East | Louise Elizabeth Jones | 73,139 | 62.7 | 24.4 | 30.6 | 4.5 | 27.3 | 4.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 354 | 69 | Newark | Robert Jenrick | 80,028 | 66.8 | 27.2 | 27.6 | 6.1 | 25.4 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 364 | 59 | Leicestershire North West | Amanda Hack | 77,757 | 62.5 | 24.7 | 28.5 | 4.2 | 28.3 | 5.1 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 372 | 50 | Leicestershire South | Alberto Costa | 78,543 | 65.4 | 25.4 | 24.6 | 9.3 | 25.4 | 6.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 373 | 50 | Melton and Syston | Edward Argar | 74,316 | 61.9 | 24.2 | 25.6 | 5.0 | 26.6 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 380 | 42 | Rutland and Stamford | Alicia Kearns | 71,711 | 67.7 | 30.7 | 22.2 | 9.7 | 24.1 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 397 | 26 | Sleaford and North Hykeham | Caroline Johnson | 75,807 | 64.1 | 26.0 | 24.5 | 5.2 | 29.2 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 400 | 23 | Grantham and Bourne | Gareth Davies | 73,280 | 62.9 | 26.4 | 24.1 | 5.2 | 29.1 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 402 | 21 | Gainsborough | Sir Edward Leigh | 75,836 | 61.6 | 25.4 | 23.4 | 8.3 | 29.0 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 415 | 8 | Louth and Horncastle | Victoria Atkins | 76,882 | 60.5 | 24.9 | 21.3 | 4.9 | 33.3 | 4.7 | 10.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 417 | 5 | Hinckley and Bosworth | Luke Evans | 76,431 | 62.5 | 38.4 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 27.2 | 3.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 418 | 5 | Ashfield | Lee Anderson | 68,929 | 57.9 | 17.3 | 21.9 | 3.5 | 39.4 | 2.4 | 15.4 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
| 418 | 4 | South Holland and The Deepings | John Hayes | 78,473 | 58.5 | 35.8 | 12.6 | 2.5 | 34.2 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 421 | 2 | Boston and Skegness | Richard Tice | 75,811 | 53.4 | 36.6 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 42.3 | 1.1 | 12.2 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.