East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 50.7%31 47.0%04-427
LAB 40.5%15 40.9%40+419
LIB 4.3%0 4.3%00+00
UKIP 2.4%0 4.7%00+00
Green 1.5%0 2.0%00+00
Minor 0.6%0 1.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Rushcliffe (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Lincoln (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
29542Leicester South Jon Ashworth75,53466.917.873.
36535Nottingham East Chris Leslie61,76263.717.971.
59512Leicester East Keith Vaz77,78867.420.567.
105466Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood71,17867.627.
123448Leicester West Liz Kendall64,83457.927.661.
127444Nottingham North Alex Norris66,89457.327.360.
146425Derby South Margaret Beckett69,91864.829.858.
169402Chesterfield Toby Perkins72,06366.531.
205366Bolsover Dennis Skinner73,42963.436.852.
216355Bassetlaw John Mann78,53566.539.653.
217354Gedling Vernon Coaker71,22172.639.
238333High Peak Ruth George73,25473.541.650.
239332Derby North Chris Williamson69,91969.640.748.
241330Lincoln Karen Lee73,11166.641.
251320Ashfield Gloria De Piero78,09964.
269302Broxtowe Anna Soubry74,01775.
273298Northampton North Michael Ellis58,18369.443.545.
274297Mansfield Ben Bradley77,81164.542.944.
279292Northampton South Andrew Lewer60,99367.343.
289282Corby Tom Pursglove82,43972.845.545.
296275Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,09769.945.543.
306265Loughborough Nicky Morgan79,60768.
310261Erewash Maggie Throup72,99168.248.443.
312259Sherwood Mark Spencer76,19670.047.842.
327244Rushcliffe Kenneth Clarke74,74078.
349222Amber Valley Nigel Mills68,06567.352.838.
370201Kettering Philip Hollobone71,52369.
371200Harborough Neil O'Brien78,64773.248.631.
378193Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler76,34168.955.
381190Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,46674.754.935.
384187Wellingborough Peter Bone79,25867.253.734.
395176Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen75,36271.054.533.
426145Derbyshire Dales Patrick McLoughlin64,41877.056.331.
432139Charnwood Edward Argar78,07170.756.731.
456115Bosworth David Tredinnick80,63369.753.024.417.
460111Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,89571.957.728.
463108Newark Robert Jenrick75,52672.958.930.
465106Gainsborough Edward Leigh75,89367.858.
49081Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom85,75675.858.727.
49576Grantham and Stamford Nick Boles81,76269.258.326.
50467Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,00666.860.
51853Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson90,92572.460.526.
52348Boston and Skegness Matt Warman68,39162.759.925.31.810.
52645Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris75,33573.960.
53437Rutland and Melton Alan Duncan78,46373.459.
5683South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes76,38165.966.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.