East Midlands: Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 29.4%15 17.5%014-141
LAB 35.3%29 20.2%023-236
LIB 6.4%0 10.9%00+00
Reform 18.9%2 37.7%370+3739
Green 6.3%0 8.6%00+00
Other 3.7%1 5.0%00+01

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Derbyshire South (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Broxtowe (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
64391Nottingham East Nadia Whittome69,39552.58.331.99.519.218.912.20.0LABLAB
86369Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood64,25551.24.144.12.435.34.39.80.0LABLAB
116339Leicester West Liz Kendall74,10247.83.743.52.738.74.07.40.0LABLAB
126329Gedling Michael Payne77,00663.34.844.12.740.82.45.20.0LABLAB
127328Broxtowe Juliet Campbell71,92366.55.642.33.139.03.26.70.0LABLAB
131323Leicester South Shockat Adam70,86759.07.818.84.616.119.133.60.0MINMIN
142313Rushcliffe James William Naish79,16072.920.625.112.125.010.96.30.0LABLAB
148307Derby North Catherine Atkinson71,90056.94.741.92.642.33.05.60.0LABReform
158297Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,65458.03.742.22.944.12.25.00.0LABReform
159296Derby South Baggy Shanker72,95251.34.238.92.641.33.89.20.0LABReform
164291Lincoln Hamish Falconer72,31358.34.640.62.843.92.65.60.0LABReform
178277High Peak Jonathan Brian Pearce74,38566.212.732.16.337.25.76.00.0LABReform
179276Nottingham North and Kimberley Alex Norris73,76847.54.438.61.943.83.77.60.0LABReform
199256Leicester East Shivani Raja76,56061.019.317.615.724.814.48.20.0CONReform
214241Northampton North Lucy Rigby75,57555.34.338.82.947.22.44.40.0LABReform
224231Loughborough Jeevun Sandher68,99661.216.224.89.234.48.96.40.0LABReform
225230Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Neil O'Brien77,40765.122.420.713.230.310.82.70.0CONReform
257198Derbyshire Dales John Michael Whitby73,31769.921.320.413.832.77.44.30.0LABReform
270185Erewash Adam Thompson71,49760.25.435.72.949.22.34.50.0LABReform
294161Bolsover Natalie Fleet77,20755.04.435.32.250.72.44.90.0LABReform
304151Derbyshire Mid Jonathan Peter Tom Davies69,28168.620.719.211.035.39.24.60.0LABReform
310145Newark Robert Jenrick80,02866.827.118.010.734.56.82.80.0CONReform
334121Derbyshire South Samantha Niblett73,71462.017.720.99.939.86.65.00.0LABReform
343112Leicestershire Mid Peter Bedford75,93363.321.718.310.337.89.22.60.0CONReform
351104Derbyshire North East Louise Elizabeth Jones73,13962.718.620.39.940.36.44.60.0LABReform
353102Sherwood Forest Michelle Welsh78,89461.718.119.79.039.87.55.80.0LABReform
36986Amber Valley Linsey Farnsworth71,54659.46.231.43.452.42.64.00.0LABReform
37283Leicestershire North West Amanda Hack77,75762.518.119.69.641.17.04.60.0LABReform
37481Northampton South Mike Reader70,39362.417.518.911.240.67.74.10.0LABReform
37877Northamptonshire South Sarah Bool78,23368.624.915.413.337.47.02.10.0CONReform
38471Gainsborough Sir Edward Leigh75,83661.622.516.713.439.46.02.10.0CONReform
38768Bassetlaw Jo White78,17357.412.024.46.947.44.54.80.0LABReform
38867Corby and East Northamptonshire Lee Barron78,78762.918.118.810.241.97.04.00.0LABReform
39758Kettering Rosie Wrighting79,39063.316.616.18.340.413.65.00.0LABReform
40055Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,54365.425.113.714.538.26.42.10.0CONReform
40451Hinckley and Bosworth Luke Evans76,43162.520.113.221.538.05.41.80.0CONReform
40550Daventry Stuart Andrew80,87965.619.815.215.040.26.63.20.0CONReform
41638Rutland and Stamford Alicia Kearns71,71167.741.48.77.335.44.82.30.0CONCON
42035Grantham and Bourne Gareth Davies73,28062.928.613.08.340.46.82.90.0CONReform
42530Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson75,80764.127.313.48.841.46.52.70.0CONReform
42629Wellingborough and Rushden Gen Kitchen77,55956.716.217.78.946.07.33.90.0LABReform
42728Mansfield Steve Yemm73,81755.715.319.27.847.55.34.80.0LABReform
42827Melton and Syston Edward Argar74,31661.925.912.98.641.48.52.70.0CONReform
44312Ashfield Lee Anderson68,92957.95.921.74.955.05.76.70.0ReformReform
4496Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins76,88260.530.79.06.047.24.82.20.0CONReform
4523South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes78,47358.533.66.94.848.73.72.20.0CONReform
4532Boston and Skegness Richard Tice75,81153.423.37.35.057.04.03.40.0ReformReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.