East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 50.7%31 48.1%00+031
LAB 40.5%15 39.3%00+015
LIB 4.3%0 5.3%00+00
UKIP 2.4%0 3.8%00+00
Green 1.5%0 2.3%00+00
Minor 0.6%0 1.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Amber Valley (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Lincoln (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
30540Leicester South Jon Ashworth75,53466.918.972.43.51.53.20.00.00.6LABLAB
37533Nottingham East Chris Leslie61,76263.719.070.33.53.52.60.00.01.0LABLAB
59511Leicester East Keith Vaz77,78867.421.665.83.51.52.90.03.31.4LABLAB
105465Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood71,17867.628.261.24.23.72.10.00.00.6LABLAB
123447Leicester West Liz Kendall64,83457.928.759.73.15.22.50.00.00.9LABLAB
127443Nottingham North Alex Norris66,89457.328.459.02.77.02.30.00.00.6LABLAB
146424Derby South Margaret Beckett69,91864.830.957.23.75.91.90.00.00.6LABLAB
166404Chesterfield Toby Perkins72,06366.532.153.66.44.82.50.00.00.6LABLAB
204366Bolsover Dennis Skinner73,42963.437.950.73.96.00.90.00.00.6LABLAB
214356Bassetlaw John Mann78,53566.540.651.43.21.50.90.01.90.6LABLAB
216354Gedling Vernon Coaker71,22172.640.250.73.03.71.90.00.00.6LABLAB
235335High Peak Ruth George73,25473.542.748.55.91.50.90.00.00.6LABLAB
237333Derby North Chris Williamson69,91969.641.847.45.63.90.90.00.00.6LABLAB
239331Lincoln Karen Lee73,11166.642.146.73.64.12.10.00.01.4LABLAB
249321Ashfield Gloria De Piero78,09964.039.141.42.95.21.70.09.20.6LABLAB
266304Broxtowe Anna Soubry74,01775.044.244.15.04.12.10.00.00.6CONCON
271299Northampton North Michael Ellis58,18369.444.644.03.54.92.40.00.00.6CONCON
272298Mansfield Ben Bradley77,81164.544.043.42.36.70.90.02.20.6CONCON
276294Northampton South Andrew Lewer60,99367.344.242.94.45.42.60.00.00.6CONCON
287283Corby Tom Pursglove82,43972.846.643.63.53.91.80.00.00.6CONCON
294276Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,09769.946.642.33.74.62.30.00.00.6CONCON
303267Loughborough Nicky Morgan79,60768.047.340.84.54.22.60.00.00.6CONCON
308262Erewash Maggie Throup72,99168.249.541.83.41.52.20.00.01.6CONCON
310260Sherwood Mark Spencer76,19670.048.940.63.04.82.10.00.00.6CONCON
325245Rushcliffe Kenneth Clarke74,74078.049.236.95.74.03.60.00.00.6CONCON
347223Amber Valley Nigel Mills68,06567.353.937.33.31.52.30.00.01.8CONCON
368202Kettering Philip Hollobone71,52369.155.335.44.21.53.10.00.00.6CONCON
369201Harborough Neil O'Brien78,64773.249.729.613.63.82.80.00.00.6CONCON
375195Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler76,34168.956.134.84.51.52.60.00.00.6CONCON
376194Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,46674.756.034.44.51.53.20.00.00.6CONCON
381189Wellingborough Peter Bone79,25867.254.832.94.34.82.60.00.00.6CONCON
394176Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen75,36271.055.632.27.31.52.90.00.00.6CONCON
425145Derbyshire Dales Patrick McLoughlin64,41877.057.429.97.21.52.90.00.01.1CONCON
430140Charnwood Edward Argar78,07170.757.829.64.74.12.70.00.01.1CONCON
455115Bosworth David Tredinnick80,63369.754.122.918.31.52.70.00.00.6CONCON
459111Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,89571.958.727.35.25.42.80.00.00.6CONCON
462108Newark Robert Jenrick75,52672.960.028.56.04.00.90.00.00.6CONCON
464106Gainsborough Edward Leigh75,89367.859.227.58.01.53.30.00.00.6CONCON
48981Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom85,75675.859.826.16.53.62.90.00.01.0CONCON
49377Grantham and Stamford Nick Boles81,76269.259.425.36.54.52.20.01.50.6CONCON
50466Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,00666.861.325.54.76.10.90.00.01.5CONCON
51852Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson90,92572.461.624.75.14.42.30.00.01.9CONCON
52149Boston and Skegness Matt Warman68,39162.761.023.82.79.22.10.00.01.2CONCON
52545Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris75,33573.961.123.58.24.12.60.00.00.6CONCON
53238Rutland and Melton Alan Duncan78,46373.460.221.59.14.73.90.00.00.6CONCON
5673South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes76,38165.967.319.33.85.82.60.00.01.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.