East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	54.8%	38	26.1%	0	32	-32	6
LAB	31.7%	8	45.2%	32	0	+32	40
LIB	7.8%	0	5.7%	0	0	+0	0
Reform	1.5%	0	14.6%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.6%	0	5.9%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.7%	0	2.5%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Nottingham East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ashfield (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Northampton South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
20	555	Nottingham East	Nadia Whittome	66,262	60.4	6.6	74.3	2.1	8.8	6.3	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
32	543	Leicester South	Jonathan Ashworth	77,708	64.5	8.0	71.3	2.5	9.4	7.1	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
56	519	Nottingham South	Lilian Greenwood	79,485	60.6	10.4	67.4	2.8	10.0	7.3	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
74	501	Nottingham North	Alex Norris	66,495	53.1	12.2	64.1	2.5	13.0	5.9	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
79	496	Leicester West	Liz Kendall	64,940	53.5	12.9	64.4	2.9	12.0	5.6	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
91	484	Derby South	Margaret Beckett	73,062	58.1	13.2	62.0	2.8	13.7	4.8	0.0	3.5	LAB	LAB
103	472	Leicester East	Claudia Webbe	78,433	63.0	17.6	64.6	2.5	10.6	2.7	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
189	386	Gedling	Tom Randall	71,366	70.0	20.2	56.1	3.2	12.6	6.2	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
194	381	Chesterfield	Toby Perkins	71,034	63.6	17.3	52.8	5.1	16.4	6.3	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
203	372	Lincoln	Karl McCartney	74,942	67.6	20.4	55.2	3.6	12.6	6.2	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
220	355	Derby North	Amanda Solloway	73,199	64.2	20.8	53.6	4.5	13.3	5.8	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
222	353	Bolsover	Mark Fletcher	74,292	61.8	20.1	52.7	3.4	16.6	5.4	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
229	346	High Peak	Robert Largan	74,265	72.9	22.1	53.5	3.9	12.8	6.4	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
249	326	Northampton South	Andrew Lewer	62,163	65.7	23.6	52.3	4.0	12.5	5.6	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
252	323	Broxtowe	Darren Henry	73,052	75.7	23.6	51.8	2.8	12.6	6.4	0.0	2.7	CON	LAB
255	320	Northampton North	Michael Ellis	58,768	67.3	24.3	52.3	3.3	12.5	5.9	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
261	314	Loughborough	Jane Hunt	79,764	68.5	24.6	51.9	3.8	11.6	6.4	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
282	293	Corby	Tom Pursglove	86,153	70.2	25.8	51.0	4.3	13.2	4.6	0.0	1.1	CON	LAB
296	279	Erewash	Maggie Throup	72,523	67.3	26.4	49.7	3.2	12.7	6.1	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
312	263	Rushcliffe	Ruth Edwards	77,047	78.5	24.7	46.0	8.8	13.4	5.7	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
314	261	Bassetlaw	Brendan Clarke-Smith	80,024	63.5	25.8	47.2	3.6	16.9	4.7	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
318	257	Sherwood	Mark Spencer	77,888	67.7	25.9	46.4	4.5	15.6	5.7	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
319	256	Mansfield	Ben Bradley	77,131	63.9	27.1	47.5	3.0	15.2	4.8	0.0	2.4	CON	LAB
326	249	Ashfield	Lee Anderson	78,204	62.6	10.7	29.4	3.1	16.8	3.9	27.6	8.5	CON	LAB
340	235	Derbyshire North East	Lee Rowley	72,345	68.0	28.6	45.2	4.5	14.3	5.9	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
351	224	Amber Valley	Nigel Mills	69,976	65.1	29.9	44.2	3.5	14.1	6.8	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
361	214	Derbyshire South	Heather Wheeler	79,331	67.3	30.8	43.4	4.3	13.9	6.4	0.0	1.2	CON	LAB
366	209	Leicestershire North West	Andrew Bridgen	78,935	68.2	29.7	41.8	5.0	15.1	7.0	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
371	204	Kettering	Philip Hollobone	73,164	67.5	29.8	41.3	5.1	15.0	6.5	0.0	2.4	CON	LAB
376	199	Wellingborough	Peter Bone	80,765	64.3	31.4	41.7	5.4	14.3	5.5	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
384	191	Derbyshire Mid	Pauline Latham	67,442	73.2	30.4	39.0	6.0	14.9	7.6	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
389	186	Harborough	Neil O'Brien	80,151	71.5	28.2	36.1	12.9	14.8	6.3	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
399	176	Newark	Robert Jenrick	75,850	72.2	31.2	38.1	6.9	16.0	6.2	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
408	167	Derbyshire Dales	Sarah Dines	65,080	76.9	29.4	35.6	10.6	16.0	7.4	0.0	1.0	CON	LAB
429	146	Leicestershire South	Alberto Costa	80,520	71.4	32.8	36.8	8.0	14.9	6.2	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
431	144	Gainsborough	Edward Leigh	76,343	66.9	31.4	35.4	10.8	16.8	4.4	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
449	126	Northamptonshire South	Andrea Leadsom	90,842	73.7	33.8	35.9	8.5	14.4	6.0	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
450	125	Grantham and Stamford	Gareth Davies	81,502	68.7	32.1	34.2	7.5	16.9	6.9	0.0	2.5	CON	LAB
453	122	Charnwood	Edward Argar	79,534	69.6	34.6	36.4	5.4	14.8	6.9	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
458	117	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Caroline Johnson	94,761	70.2	33.6	34.6	6.4	17.6	5.7	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
469	106	Bosworth	Luke Evans	81,542	69.2	31.3	31.0	14.8	15.8	5.7	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
473	102	Boston and Skegness	Matt Warman	69,381	60.1	33.4	32.7	4.4	20.9	4.4	0.0	4.2	CON	CON
478	97	Rutland and Melton	Alicia Kearns	82,705	70.5	32.0	30.5	10.9	16.8	8.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
480	95	Daventry	Chris Heaton-Harris	77,423	74.1	35.5	33.9	9.1	14.7	5.8	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
497	78	Louth and Horncastle	Victoria Atkins	79,634	65.7	35.7	33.0	6.1	19.1	4.4	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
517	58	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	75,975	64.7	36.3	31.1	5.2	19.0	5.7	0.0	2.7	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.