| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 29.4% | 15 | 21.4% | 0 | 8 | -8 | 7 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 29 | 21.0% | 0 | 24 | -24 | 5 |
| LIB | 6.4% | 0 | 7.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 18.9% | 2 | 33.5% | 31 | 0 | +31 | 33 |
| Green | 6.3% | 0 | 12.4% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| Other | 3.7% | 1 | 4.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Gedling' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Derby South (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Derby North (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 349 | Gedling | Michael Payne | 77,006 | 63.3 | 5.7 | 45.1 | 1.7 | 39.3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 49 | 335 | Rushcliffe | James William Naish | 79,160 | 72.9 | 22.4 | 26.0 | 11.2 | 21.9 | 14.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 51 | 333 | Derby North | Catherine Atkinson | 71,900 | 56.9 | 5.8 | 43.4 | 2.2 | 39.4 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 58 | 325 | Nottingham East | Nadia Whittome | 69,395 | 52.5 | 8.6 | 25.4 | 5.6 | 22.1 | 30.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | LAB | Green |
| 60 | 324 | Chesterfield | Toby Perkins | 71,654 | 58.0 | 4.7 | 44.2 | 1.7 | 41.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 66 | 318 | High Peak | Jonathan Brian Pearce | 74,385 | 66.2 | 21.2 | 28.3 | 7.0 | 26.7 | 14.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 76 | 308 | Lincoln | Hamish Falconer | 72,313 | 58.3 | 5.6 | 41.6 | 2.0 | 41.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 80 | 303 | Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Neil O'Brien | 77,407 | 65.1 | 27.0 | 24.3 | 10.5 | 24.8 | 10.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | CON | CON |
| 82 | 301 | Leicester South | Shockat Adam | 70,867 | 59.0 | 8.7 | 17.4 | 5.5 | 18.2 | 24.2 | 26.0 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 92 | 292 | Loughborough | Jeevun Sandher | 68,996 | 61.2 | 21.1 | 23.9 | 8.5 | 26.7 | 16.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 105 | 279 | Northampton North | Lucy Rigby | 75,575 | 55.3 | 13.1 | 29.6 | 4.2 | 33.9 | 13.5 | 3.6 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 121 | 263 | Leicester West | Liz Kendall | 74,102 | 47.8 | 13.1 | 24.2 | 7.8 | 29.7 | 19.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 128 | 256 | Broxtowe | Juliet Campbell | 71,923 | 66.5 | 20.0 | 23.6 | 9.0 | 30.0 | 13.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 132 | 252 | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lee Barron | 78,787 | 62.9 | 23.9 | 22.7 | 6.5 | 29.3 | 15.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 134 | 250 | Leicester East | Shivani Raja | 76,560 | 61.0 | 20.8 | 14.2 | 13.7 | 20.9 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 10.7 | CON | Reform |
| 136 | 248 | Northampton South | Mike Reader | 70,393 | 62.4 | 24.4 | 20.9 | 7.2 | 27.7 | 17.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 147 | 237 | Derbyshire Dales | John Michael Whitby | 73,317 | 69.9 | 23.3 | 22.2 | 12.1 | 29.8 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 165 | 219 | Nottingham South | Lilian Greenwood | 64,255 | 51.2 | 12.5 | 22.2 | 5.6 | 31.4 | 23.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 172 | 212 | Derbyshire South | Samantha Niblett | 73,714 | 62.0 | 21.6 | 23.0 | 7.6 | 33.0 | 11.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 177 | 207 | Leicestershire Mid | Peter Bedford | 75,933 | 63.3 | 26.7 | 21.3 | 7.6 | 31.6 | 10.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | CON | Reform |
| 179 | 205 | Derbyshire Mid | Jonathan Peter Tom Davies | 69,281 | 68.6 | 22.8 | 20.6 | 10.6 | 31.0 | 11.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 190 | 194 | Erewash | Adam Thompson | 71,497 | 60.2 | 12.8 | 28.6 | 5.5 | 40.1 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 200 | 184 | Kettering | Rosie Wrighting | 79,390 | 63.3 | 27.4 | 16.6 | 5.8 | 28.7 | 17.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 206 | 178 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Gen Kitchen | 77,559 | 56.7 | 23.6 | 20.4 | 4.9 | 33.0 | 15.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 214 | 169 | Northamptonshire South | Sarah Bool | 78,233 | 68.6 | 34.6 | 16.6 | 7.1 | 30.0 | 8.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | CON | CON |
| 228 | 156 | Derbyshire North East | Louise Elizabeth Jones | 73,139 | 62.7 | 21.0 | 22.6 | 6.8 | 36.7 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 230 | 154 | Bassetlaw | Jo White | 78,173 | 57.4 | 17.1 | 25.8 | 4.7 | 40.2 | 9.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 244 | 140 | Sherwood Forest | Michelle Welsh | 78,894 | 61.7 | 22.9 | 20.8 | 6.7 | 35.9 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 255 | 129 | Bolsover | Natalie Fleet | 77,207 | 55.0 | 10.3 | 29.7 | 2.8 | 46.0 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 266 | 118 | Leicestershire North West | Amanda Hack | 77,757 | 62.5 | 20.4 | 21.1 | 6.1 | 38.2 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 273 | 111 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Alex Norris | 73,768 | 47.5 | 13.2 | 21.3 | 4.8 | 38.9 | 18.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 274 | 110 | Daventry | Stuart Andrew | 80,879 | 65.6 | 26.0 | 16.5 | 10.9 | 34.1 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | CON | Reform |
| 282 | 102 | Gainsborough | Sir Edward Leigh | 75,836 | 61.6 | 29.2 | 18.1 | 8.5 | 36.3 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | CON | Reform |
| 284 | 100 | Leicestershire South | Alberto Costa | 78,543 | 65.4 | 32.6 | 14.9 | 10.4 | 33.2 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | CON | Reform |
| 286 | 98 | Mansfield | Steve Yemm | 73,817 | 55.7 | 20.1 | 21.8 | 4.4 | 40.2 | 10.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 301 | 82 | Newark | Robert Jenrick | 80,028 | 66.8 | 43.0 | 12.9 | 3.8 | 32.7 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | CON | CON |
| 303 | 81 | Hinckley and Bosworth | Luke Evans | 76,431 | 62.5 | 32.7 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 33.4 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | CON | Reform |
| 313 | 71 | Amber Valley | Linsey Farnsworth | 71,546 | 59.4 | 14.7 | 23.5 | 5.1 | 44.2 | 9.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 313 | 70 | Rutland and Stamford | Alicia Kearns | 71,711 | 67.7 | 47.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 30.7 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | CON | CON |
| 337 | 47 | Derby South | Baggy Shanker | 72,952 | 51.3 | 12.8 | 17.9 | 5.1 | 40.8 | 15.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 364 | 19 | Melton and Syston | Edward Argar | 74,316 | 61.9 | 41.8 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 36.4 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 15 | Grantham and Bourne | Gareth Davies | 73,280 | 62.9 | 40.9 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 38.3 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 15 | Sleaford and North Hykeham | Caroline Johnson | 75,807 | 64.1 | 40.1 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 38.9 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | CON | CON |
| 375 | 9 | Louth and Horncastle | Victoria Atkins | 76,882 | 60.5 | 38.1 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 44.4 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | CON | Reform |
| 377 | 7 | South Holland and The Deepings | John Hayes | 78,473 | 58.5 | 38.6 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 44.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 2.0 | CON | Reform |
| 381 | 3 | Ashfield | Lee Anderson | 68,929 | 57.9 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 3.2 | 56.1 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.0 | Reform | Reform |
| 383 | 1 | Boston and Skegness | Richard Tice | 75,811 | 53.4 | 29.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 57.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | Reform | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.