London: Majority Sorted Seats

London Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.1%21 29.4%06-615
LAB 54.5%49 54.9%50+554
LIB 8.8%3 8.8%10+14
UKIP 1.3%0 3.6%00+00
Green 1.8%0 2.3%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in London sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, East Ham, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Orpington, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Croydon South (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Battersea (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of London seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
6565East Ham Stephen Timms83,82767.610.283.51.22.81.20.00.01.1LABLAB
7564Tottenham David Lammy72,88367.79.281.83.42.42.90.00.00.3LABLAB
9562Hackney South and Shoreditch Meg Hillier82,00467.58.779.75.71.43.00.00.01.4LABLAB
13558Walthamstow Stella Creasy68,14470.611.380.92.91.82.90.00.00.3LABLAB
14557Camberwell and Peckham Harriet Harman85,58667.110.378.15.91.63.20.00.00.9LABLAB
16555Lewisham Deptford Vicky Foxcroft78,47270.211.077.35.31.73.40.00.01.3LABLAB
18553Hackney North and Stoke Newington Diane Abbott83,95567.110.175.36.81.65.00.00.01.2LABLAB
19552West Ham Lyn Brown92,24365.813.077.13.03.92.00.00.01.0LABLAB
22549Islington North Jeremy Corbyn74,83173.410.073.29.02.34.40.00.01.0LABLAB
24547Bethnal Green and Bow Rushanara Ali86,07169.510.172.15.03.12.90.06.50.3LABLAB
26545Ilford South Mike Gapes85,35867.517.076.21.33.31.50.00.00.6LABLAB
27544Croydon North Steve Reed87,46168.215.974.62.83.82.20.00.00.8LABLAB
28543Brent Central Dawn Butler80,84564.715.673.54.83.52.10.00.00.5LABLAB
31540Holborn and St Pancras Keir Starmer88,08867.014.770.56.83.53.90.00.00.6LABLAB
34537Dulwich and West Norwood Helen Hayes77,94772.015.670.08.02.53.00.00.00.9LABLAB
38533Hornsey and Wood Green Catherine West79,94477.911.965.716.12.62.30.00.90.6LABLAB
39532Leyton and Wanstead John Cryer65,28570.716.970.26.42.53.50.00.00.5LABLAB
40531Ealing Southall Virendra Sharma65,18869.317.470.74.23.62.80.00.01.3LABLAB
42529Edmonton Kate Osamor65,70566.519.271.92.04.52.00.00.00.5LABLAB
46525Poplar and Limehouse Jim Fitzpatrick87,27467.416.267.76.74.02.20.02.50.7LABLAB
47524Streatham Chuka Umunna78,53271.017.468.96.53.13.60.00.00.5LABLAB
51520Barking Margaret Hodge77,02061.918.568.21.38.92.10.00.01.1LABLAB
52519Lewisham East Heidi Alexander68,12669.319.068.44.44.22.30.00.01.7LABLAB
54517Mitcham and Morden Siobhain McDonagh68,70570.020.369.13.14.71.90.00.01.0LABLAB
56515Lewisham West and Penge Ellie Reeves72,90273.019.067.06.23.82.70.00.01.2LABLAB
61510Islington South and Finsbury Emily Thornberry69,53469.116.763.212.14.43.00.00.00.5LABLAB
73498Greenwich and Woolwich Matthew Pennycook77,19068.821.464.87.12.53.60.00.00.5LABLAB
74497Bermondsey and Old Southwark Neil Coyle87,22767.110.453.531.13.11.40.00.00.5LABLAB
76495Vauxhall Kate Hoey81,90767.215.057.820.62.32.60.00.01.8LABLAB
78493Hayes and Harlington John McDonnell73,26865.224.666.91.34.91.70.00.00.5LABLAB
81490Ealing North Steve Pound74,76470.224.566.42.44.32.00.00.00.5LABLAB
87484Hammersmith Andy Slaughter72,80371.824.264.35.43.52.10.00.00.6LABLAB
112459Brent North Barry Gardiner82,55668.428.763.32.92.51.70.00.00.9LABLAB
121450Feltham and Heston Seema Malhotra81,70764.927.861.62.65.42.10.00.00.5LABLAB
138433Hampstead and Kilburn Tulip Siddiq82,95770.428.459.47.02.51.80.00.00.8LABLAB
139432Westminster North Karen Buck63,84667.829.360.35.22.51.90.00.00.7LABLAB
140431Tooting Rosena Allin-Khan77,96074.629.160.15.33.12.00.00.00.5LABLAB
142429Harrow West Gareth Thomas69,79872.130.461.32.53.41.80.00.00.5LABLAB
145426Ealing Central and Acton Rupa Huq74,20074.630.860.15.62.50.50.00.00.5LABLAB
154417Erith and Thamesmead Teresa Pearce69,72463.831.058.01.76.41.70.00.01.2LABLAB
162409Enfield North Joan Ryan68,45470.932.958.42.14.31.70.00.00.5LABLAB
168403Brentford and Isleworth Ruth Cadbury85,15172.433.657.85.02.50.50.00.00.5LABLAB
177394Ilford North Wes Streeting72,99772.535.658.22.02.50.50.00.01.2LABLAB
193378Eltham Clive Efford64,47471.636.854.93.22.50.50.00.02.1LABLAB
211360Dagenham and Rainham Jon Cruddas70,62064.936.050.51.09.61.70.00.01.2LABLAB
212359Croydon Central Sarah Jones80,04571.338.452.71.94.31.60.00.00.9LABLAB
215356Enfield Southgate Bambos Charalambous65,13774.238.752.14.02.52.20.00.00.5LABLAB
236335Battersea Marsha De Cordova77,57271.037.646.48.03.22.10.02.20.6LABLAB
256315Kensington Emma Dent Coad60,59463.838.242.612.22.52.50.00.01.9LABLAB
260311Chipping Barnet Theresa Villiers77,02072.042.446.15.42.53.10.00.00.5CONLAB
271300Hendon Matthew Offord76,32968.444.046.43.83.61.70.00.00.5CONLAB
280291Finchley and Golders Green Mike Freer73,13871.643.044.26.63.42.30.00.00.5CONLAB
282289Putney Justine Greening65,02672.140.141.211.63.52.90.00.00.6CONLAB
283288Harrow East Bob Blackman71,75770.945.446.43.12.52.10.00.00.5CONLAB
294277Chingford and Woodford Green Iain Duncan Smith66,07871.145.244.44.42.53.10.00.00.5CONCON
305266Cities of London and Westminster Mark Field61,53362.842.638.811.13.62.70.00.01.2CONCON
315256Uxbridge and South Ruislip Boris Johnson69,93866.846.840.43.95.92.40.00.00.5CONCON
317254Wimbledon Stephen Hammond66,77177.242.536.014.53.62.90.00.00.5CONCON
352219Croydon South Chris Philp83,51873.350.436.25.84.32.40.00.00.8CONCON
355216Chelsea and Fulham Greg Hands63,72866.148.733.611.03.82.50.00.00.5CONCON
357213Carshalton and Wallington Tom Brake70,84971.634.318.941.02.51.50.00.90.9LIBLIB
358213Bexleyheath and Crayford David Evennett65,31569.251.635.92.76.81.90.00.01.1CONCON
364207Bromley and Chislehurst Bob Neill65,11371.750.033.87.25.53.00.00.00.5CONCON
380190Kingston and Surbiton Ed Davey81,58476.234.115.244.73.61.40.00.00.9LIBLIB
402169Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Nick Hurd73,42572.753.331.57.24.72.90.00.00.5CONCON
411160Romford Andrew Rosindell73,51667.955.432.22.47.22.20.00.00.5CONCON
423147Twickenham Vince Cable83,36279.534.09.652.82.50.50.00.00.5LIBLIB
427144Beckenham Bob Stewart67,92876.055.430.57.92.53.20.00.00.5CONCON
441130Sutton and Cheam Paul Scully70,40473.847.120.926.72.52.20.00.00.5CONCON
447124Hornchurch and Upminster Julia Dockerill80,82169.456.229.02.58.82.50.00.01.2CONCON
450121Old Bexley and Sidcup James Brokenshire66,00572.857.529.73.35.92.30.00.01.3CONCON
49674Richmond Park Zac Goldsmith80,02579.141.29.545.13.20.50.00.00.5CONLIB
51655Orpington Jo Johnson67,90674.359.024.86.66.52.60.00.00.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.