North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 33.1%01-119
LAB 54.9%54 53.9%10+155
LIB 5.4%1 5.4%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 4.9%00+00
Green 1.1%0 2.2%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 0.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Altrincham and Sale West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
1579Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.
2578Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.97.884.
3577Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.
4576Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.38.381.
5575Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.
10570Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.
11569Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.910.
15565Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.111.976.
20560Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.98.670.716.
21559Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.114.876.
23557Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.715.475.
32548Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.418.472.
41539Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.018.369.
44536Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.720.
49531St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.918.666.
55525Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.620.667.
58522Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.223.668.
68512Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.
73507Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.924.365.
81499Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.224.464.
87493St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.023.862.
89491Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.224.762.
91489Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.525.
94486Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.
99481Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.026.461.
109471Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.426.459.
116464Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.529.862.
120460Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.
130450Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.
133447Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.828.759.
159421Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.233.558.
164416Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.
167413Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.532.655.
174406Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.433.455.
177403Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.534.956.
179401Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.435.656.
181399Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.935.556.
186394Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.133.853.
190390Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.437.
192388Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.327.745.815.
195385Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.434.852.
196384Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.537.454.
201379Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.838.554.
204376Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.837.
207373Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.538.853.
208372Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.238.352.
221359Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.238.550.
222358Bury North James Frith67,58770.941.
227353Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.
230350Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.340.550.
232348Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.839.849.
246334Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.341.
260320Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.543.846.
262318Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.743.846.
278302Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.144.745.
284296Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.045.845.
287293Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.344.443.
294286Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.545.844.
298282Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.
305275Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.146.642.
306274Southport Damien Moore69,40069.135.431.626.
307273Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.247.643.
331249Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.147.837.
335245Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.449.638.
342238Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.249.435.
385195Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.353.433.
390190Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.855.
391189Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.053.632.
395185Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.854.632.
403177Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.442.219.533.
407173Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.155.632.
408172Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.041.318.
447133Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.455.327.
48496Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.357.
48891Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.941.18.845.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.