North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 33.4%02-218
LAB 54.9%54 54.9%20+256
LIB 5.4%1 5.0%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 3.9%00+00
Green 1.1%0 2.1%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 0.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Altrincham and Sale West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
1576Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.37.385.71.40.91.70.02.90.1LABLAB
2575Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.97.985.31.93.31.40.00.00.1LABLAB
3574Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.98.384.62.21.03.80.00.00.1LABLAB
4573Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.38.482.81.11.01.20.04.80.8LABLAB
5572Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.010.384.01.51.22.00.00.01.0LABLAB
10567Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.06.276.45.13.02.70.05.70.8LABLAB
11566Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.910.379.66.01.52.10.00.00.7LABLAB
16561Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.112.177.43.14.42.40.00.00.6LABLAB
20557Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.98.871.714.51.82.50.00.00.7LABLAB
21556Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.115.177.72.91.82.30.00.00.2LABLAB
23554Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.715.776.92.31.83.00.00.00.2LABLAB
32545Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.418.772.91.64.90.90.00.00.9LABLAB
41536Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.018.770.51.76.52.10.00.00.7LABLAB
44533Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.720.371.51.54.32.20.00.00.2LABLAB
49528St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.918.967.93.65.73.70.00.00.2LABLAB
55522Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.620.968.03.15.82.00.00.00.2LABLAB
58519Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.224.069.81.41.90.90.01.80.2LABLAB
68509Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.022.365.52.56.82.70.00.00.2LABLAB
73504Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.924.666.81.84.12.20.00.00.5LABLAB
81496Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.224.765.21.96.11.90.00.00.2LABLAB
87490St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.024.263.82.36.13.40.00.00.2LABLAB
89488Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.225.163.62.06.52.20.00.00.8LABLAB
92485Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.525.563.33.94.72.40.00.00.2LABLAB
94483Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.125.662.21.87.72.50.00.00.2LABLAB
99478Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.026.762.23.05.22.20.00.00.6LABLAB
108469Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.426.760.71.78.52.20.00.00.2LABLAB
116461Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.530.163.12.42.02.20.00.00.2LABLAB
120457Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.125.558.07.35.51.10.01.80.8LABLAB
130447Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.228.460.22.62.01.00.05.70.2LABLAB
132445Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.829.060.41.56.62.30.00.00.2LABLAB
156421Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.233.959.21.63.51.60.00.00.2LABLAB
161416Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.234.558.91.81.92.20.00.00.7LABLAB
165412Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.532.956.21.87.90.90.00.00.2LABLAB
172405Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.433.756.42.35.22.20.00.00.2LABLAB
175402Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.535.257.22.11.93.30.00.00.2LABLAB
177400Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.435.957.32.72.02.00.00.00.2LABLAB
178399Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.935.857.12.21.92.80.00.00.2LABLAB
182395Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.134.254.53.36.91.00.00.00.2LABLAB
187390Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.437.656.82.52.01.00.00.00.2LABLAB
189388Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.328.046.813.68.82.40.00.00.3LABLAB
191386Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.435.153.32.08.40.90.00.00.2LABLAB
192385Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.537.755.12.32.02.70.00.00.2LABLAB
198379Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.838.855.31.81.91.90.00.00.2LABLAB
201376Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.837.653.41.76.20.90.00.00.2LABLAB
204373Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.539.254.32.42.01.90.00.00.2LABLAB
205372Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.238.653.31.94.50.90.00.00.7LABLAB
217360Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.238.851.22.55.71.00.00.00.9LABLAB
219358Bury North James Frith67,58770.941.653.61.71.90.90.00.00.2LABLAB
224353Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.239.350.62.65.41.80.00.00.2LABLAB
227350Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.340.851.52.92.02.50.00.00.2LABLAB
229348Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.840.150.31.65.71.90.00.00.2LABLAB
242335Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.341.348.44.92.11.00.00.02.2LABLAB
256321Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.544.147.52.44.01.70.00.00.2LABLAB
259318Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.744.147.12.25.41.00.00.00.2LABLAB
274303Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.145.046.12.65.11.00.00.00.2CONLAB
280297Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.046.146.21.91.92.10.01.60.2CONLAB
283294Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.344.844.63.44.92.00.00.00.2CONCON
290287Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.546.145.13.04.51.00.00.00.2CONCON
294283Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.146.544.51.75.31.90.00.00.2CONCON
301276Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.146.943.82.75.41.00.00.00.2CONCON
302275Southport Damien Moore69,40069.135.732.624.65.31.40.00.00.4CONCON
303274Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.247.944.42.82.02.60.00.00.2CONCON
327250Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.148.138.97.02.23.00.00.00.8CONCON
332245Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.449.939.33.44.61.90.00.00.9CONCON
340237Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.249.736.85.62.23.30.00.02.4CONCON
383194Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.353.734.24.74.42.80.00.00.3CONCON
387190Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.855.435.04.42.12.90.00.00.3CONCON
388189Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.054.033.65.04.32.60.00.00.6CONCON
392185Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.854.933.95.42.13.40.00.00.3CONCON
400177Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.442.520.531.12.92.60.00.00.4CONCON
404173Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.155.933.44.62.13.70.00.00.3CONCON
405172Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.041.719.134.52.91.40.00.00.4CONCON
446131Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.455.628.58.22.33.20.00.02.2CONCON
48097Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.357.526.27.14.73.30.00.01.2CONCON
49185Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.941.49.344.02.91.40.00.01.0LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.