North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 33.6%00+020
LAB 54.9%54 53.7%00+054
LIB 5.4%1 6.3%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 3.4%00+00
Green 1.1%0 2.0%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 1.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Macclesfield (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
1569Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.37.484.
2568Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.
3567Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.98.383.
4566Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.38.581.
5565Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.010.482.
9561Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.06.375.
11559Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.910.378.
16554Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.
19551Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.98.970.516.
21549Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.
23547Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.715.875.
32538Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.418.871.
41529Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.018.869.
44526Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.720.470.
49521St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.919.
55515Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.621.
58512Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.
68502Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.022.564.
73497Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.924.765.
80490Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.224.864.
86484St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.024.362.
88482Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.
92478Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.525.662.
93477Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.125.761.
99471Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.026.861.
108462Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.426.859.
115455Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.530.
119451Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.125.656.
128442Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.228.559.
131439Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.829.
154416Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.
159411Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.234.657.
162408Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.533.
169401Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.433.855.
172398Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.535.356.
174396Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.436.
175395Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.935.955.
179391Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.134.353.
183387Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.437.755.
185385Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.328.245.616.
187383Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.435.
188382Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.537.853.
193377Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.839.
196374Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.837.752.
199371Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.539.353.
200370Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.238.852.
212358Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.238.950.
213357Bury North James Frith67,58770.941.752.
218352Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.239.449.
221349Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.340.950.
223347Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.840.349.
236334Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.341.547.
250320Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.544.
253317Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.744.
268302Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.
274296Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.
277293Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.344.943.
284286Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.546.343.
288282Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.146.643.
295275Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.
296274Southport Damien Moore69,40069.135.931.427.
297273Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.
320250Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.
324246Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.450.
333237Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.249.835.
372198Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.353.833.
377193Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.855.533.
378192Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.
384186Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.855.
393177Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.442.619.333.
397173Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.
398172Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.041.818.
436134Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.455.827.310.
470100Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.357.625.
47297Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.941.58.746.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.