North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 32.5%04-416
LAB 54.9%54 55.3%40+458
LIB 5.4%1 5.4%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 4.3%00+00
Green 1.1%0 1.6%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ribble South (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
1570Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.36.985.
2569Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.97.485.
3568Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.97.884.
4567Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.37.983.
5566Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.09.784.
10561Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.05.976.
11560Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.99.679.
15556Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.111.477.
20551Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.
21550Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.98.371.916.
23548Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.714.877.
32539Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.417.773.
41530Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.017.670.
43528Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.719.371.
48523St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.917.868.
55516Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.619.968.
58513Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.222.970.
68503Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.021.365.
72499Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.923.667.
80491Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.223.765.
86485St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.
88483Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.
90481Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.524.463.
94477Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.124.562.
99472Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.025.762.
108463Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.425.761.
114457Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.529.
119452Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.124.458.
128443Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.227.460.
131440Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.828.
155416Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.232.859.
160411Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.233.459.
163408Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.531.956.
170401Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.432.756.
173398Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.534.
174397Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.434.957.
176395Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.934.757.
180391Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.
184387Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.436.557.
186385Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.327.
188383Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.434.
189382Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.536.755.
194377Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.837.855.
197374Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.836.553.
199372Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.538.
201370Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.237.653.
213358Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.237.851.
214357Bury North James Frith67,58770.940.554.
219352Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.
222349Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.339.851.
224347Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.839.
237334Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.340.348.
252319Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.543.
254317Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.743.
270301Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.143.946.
276295Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.
278293Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.343.745.
286285Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.545.
290281Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.145.444.
297274Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.145.944.
298273Southport Damien Moore69,40069.134.733.
299272Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.246.944.
322249Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.
326245Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.448.939.
334237Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.248.737.
373198Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.352.634.
379192Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.854.335.
380191Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.052.934.
386185Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.853.934.
394177Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.441.520.932.
397174Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.154.933.
399172Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.040.619.536.
436135Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.454.628.
47299Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.356.526.
48189Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.940.49.745.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.