North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 33.6%00+020
LAB 54.9%54 53.7%00+054
LIB 5.4%1 6.3%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 3.4%00+00
Green 1.1%0 2.0%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 1.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Macclesfield (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
1569Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.37.484.52.10.91.80.02.90.3LABLAB
2568Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.98.084.22.83.31.50.00.00.4LABLAB
3567Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.98.383.43.11.03.90.00.00.4LABLAB
4566Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.38.581.61.81.01.30.04.81.0LABLAB
5565Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.010.482.92.41.12.10.00.01.3LABLAB
9561Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.06.375.26.22.92.80.05.71.0LABLAB
11559Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.910.378.47.31.12.00.00.00.9LABLAB
16554Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.112.276.24.24.22.40.00.00.8LABLAB
19551Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.98.970.516.61.02.20.00.00.8LABLAB
21549Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.115.276.54.11.42.20.00.00.5LABLAB
23547Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.715.875.73.51.43.00.00.00.5LABLAB
32538Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.418.871.72.84.50.90.00.01.2LABLAB
41529Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.018.869.32.86.12.00.00.01.0LABLAB
44526Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.720.470.32.63.92.20.00.00.6LABLAB
49521St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.919.066.75.05.23.60.00.00.6LABLAB
55515Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.621.066.84.45.31.90.00.00.6LABLAB
58512Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.224.168.62.51.50.90.01.80.6LABLAB
68502Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.022.564.33.76.42.60.00.00.6LABLAB
73497Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.924.765.63.03.72.20.00.00.8LABLAB
80490Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.224.864.03.15.71.90.00.00.6LABLAB
86484St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.024.362.63.65.73.30.00.00.6LABLAB
88482Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.225.262.43.16.12.10.00.01.1LABLAB
92478Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.525.662.15.34.12.30.00.00.6LABLAB
93477Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.125.761.02.97.32.50.00.00.6LABLAB
99471Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.026.861.04.34.72.20.00.01.0LABLAB
108462Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.426.859.52.88.12.20.00.00.6LABLAB
115455Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.530.261.93.61.52.20.00.00.6LABLAB
119451Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.125.656.89.04.80.90.01.81.1LABLAB
128442Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.228.559.03.81.50.90.05.70.6LABLAB
131439Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.829.259.22.66.22.20.00.00.6LABLAB
154416Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.234.058.02.73.11.60.00.00.6LABLAB
159411Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.234.657.73.01.52.10.00.01.1LABLAB
162408Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.533.055.03.07.50.90.00.00.6LABLAB
169401Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.433.855.23.54.72.20.00.00.6LABLAB
172398Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.535.356.03.31.53.20.00.00.6LABLAB
174396Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.436.056.13.91.51.90.00.00.6LABLAB
175395Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.935.955.93.41.52.70.00.00.6LABLAB
179391Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.134.353.34.66.40.90.00.00.6LABLAB
183387Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.437.755.63.71.50.90.00.00.6LABLAB
185385Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.328.245.616.07.72.00.00.00.6LABLAB
187383Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.435.252.13.28.00.90.00.00.6LABLAB
188382Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.537.853.93.51.52.60.00.00.6LABLAB
193377Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.839.054.13.01.51.80.00.00.6LABLAB
196374Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.837.752.22.85.80.90.00.00.6LABLAB
199371Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.539.353.13.61.51.90.00.00.6LABLAB
200370Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.238.852.13.14.10.90.00.01.1LABLAB
212358Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.238.950.03.75.30.90.00.01.2LABLAB
213357Bury North James Frith67,58770.941.752.42.91.50.90.00.00.6LABLAB
218352Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.239.449.43.95.01.70.00.00.6LABLAB
221349Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.340.950.34.21.52.40.00.00.6LABLAB
223347Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.840.349.12.85.41.90.00.00.6LABLAB
236334Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.341.547.26.41.50.90.00.02.5LABLAB
250320Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.544.246.33.73.51.70.00.00.6LABLAB
253317Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.744.245.93.45.00.90.00.00.6LABLAB
268302Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.145.144.93.94.60.90.00.00.6CONCON
274296Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.046.245.03.11.52.00.01.60.6CONCON
277293Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.344.943.44.74.41.90.00.00.6CONCON
284286Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.546.343.94.34.10.90.00.00.6CONCON
288282Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.146.643.32.84.91.80.00.00.6CONCON
295275Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.147.142.63.94.90.90.00.00.6CONCON
296274Southport Damien Moore69,40069.135.931.427.43.90.90.00.00.6CONCON
297273Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.248.043.24.11.52.50.00.00.6CONCON
320250Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.148.237.78.71.52.80.00.01.1CONCON
324246Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.450.038.14.84.11.80.00.01.2CONCON
333237Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.249.835.67.21.53.10.00.02.7CONCON
372198Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.353.833.06.13.82.70.00.00.6CONCON
377193Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.855.533.85.81.52.70.00.00.6CONCON
378192Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.054.132.46.53.72.40.00.00.9CONCON
384186Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.855.032.76.91.53.30.00.00.6CONCON
393177Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.442.619.333.91.52.10.00.00.6CONCON
397173Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.156.032.26.01.53.60.00.00.6CONCON
398172Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.041.818.037.31.50.90.00.00.6CONCON
436134Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.455.827.310.01.53.00.00.02.5CONCON
470100Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.357.625.08.84.03.10.00.01.5CONCON
47297Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.941.58.746.71.30.80.00.01.1LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.