North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 33.4%02-218
LAB 54.9%54 54.9%20+256
LIB 5.4%1 5.0%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 3.9%00+00
Green 1.1%0 2.1%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 0.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Altrincham and Sale West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
1576Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.37.385.
2575Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.97.985.
3574Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.98.384.
4573Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.38.482.
5572Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.010.384.
10567Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.
11566Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.910.379.
16561Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.
20557Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.98.871.714.
21556Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.
23554Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.715.776.
32545Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.418.772.
41536Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.018.770.
44533Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.720.371.
49528St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.918.967.
55522Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.620.968.
58519Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.
68509Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.022.365.
73504Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.924.666.
81496Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.224.765.
87490St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.
89488Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.
92485Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.525.563.
94483Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.125.662.
99478Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.026.762.
108469Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.426.760.
116461Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.530.
120457Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.125.558.
130447Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.228.460.
132445Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.829.
156421Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.233.959.
161416Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.234.558.
165412Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.532.956.
172405Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.433.756.
175402Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.535.
177400Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.435.957.
178399Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.935.857.
182395Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.
187390Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.437.656.
189388Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.328.046.813.
191386Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.435.
192385Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.537.755.
198379Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.838.855.
201376Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.837.653.
204373Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.539.
205372Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.238.653.
217360Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.238.851.
219358Bury North James Frith67,58770.941.653.
224353Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.239.350.
227350Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.340.851.
229348Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.840.
242335Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.341.348.
256321Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.544.
259318Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.744.
274303Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.
280297Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.
283294Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.344.844.
290287Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.546.
294283Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.146.544.
301276Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.146.943.
302275Southport Damien Moore69,40069.135.732.624.
303274Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.247.944.
327250Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.
332245Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.449.939.
340237Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.249.736.
383194Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.353.734.
387190Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.855.435.
388189Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.
392185Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.854.933.
400177Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.442.520.531.
404173Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.155.933.
405172Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.041.719.
446131Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.455.628.
48097Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.357.526.
49185Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.941.49.344.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.