North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 33.1%01-119
LAB 54.9%54 53.9%10+155
LIB 5.4%1 5.4%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 4.9%00+00
Green 1.1%0 2.2%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 0.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Altrincham and Sale West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
1579Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.37.284.81.51.71.90.02.90.0LABLAB
2578Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.97.884.42.24.11.60.00.00.0LABLAB
3577Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.98.183.62.51.84.00.00.00.0LABLAB
4576Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.38.381.81.22.11.50.04.80.3LABLAB
5575Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.010.183.11.72.52.30.00.00.4LABLAB
10570Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.06.175.45.73.92.90.05.70.3LABLAB
11569Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.910.178.66.62.32.20.00.00.2LABLAB
15565Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.111.976.43.45.52.60.00.00.2LABLAB
20560Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.98.670.716.02.12.40.00.00.2LABLAB
21559Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.114.876.83.32.82.40.00.00.0LABLAB
23557Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.715.475.92.62.93.20.00.00.0LABLAB
32548Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.418.472.01.96.31.20.00.00.3LABLAB
41539Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.018.369.51.97.82.40.00.00.2LABLAB
44536Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.720.070.51.75.42.40.00.00.0LABLAB
49531St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.918.666.94.06.73.80.00.00.0LABLAB
55525Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.620.667.03.46.82.10.00.00.0LABLAB
58522Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.223.668.81.53.01.10.01.80.0LABLAB
68512Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.022.064.52.87.92.80.00.00.0LABLAB
73507Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.924.365.82.15.32.40.00.00.1LABLAB
81499Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.224.464.22.17.22.10.00.00.0LABLAB
87493St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.023.862.82.67.23.60.00.00.0LABLAB
89491Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.224.762.62.27.82.40.00.00.2LABLAB
91489Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.525.262.34.35.72.60.00.00.0LABLAB
94486Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.125.261.22.08.82.70.00.00.0LABLAB
99481Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.026.461.33.36.42.50.00.00.2LABLAB
109471Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.426.459.71.99.62.40.00.00.0LABLAB
116464Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.529.862.12.73.02.40.00.00.0LABLAB
120460Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.125.257.18.16.51.20.01.80.2LABLAB
130450Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.228.159.22.93.01.10.05.70.0LABLAB
133447Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.828.759.41.77.82.50.00.00.0LABLAB
159421Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.233.558.21.84.61.80.00.00.0LABLAB
164416Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.234.157.92.03.22.50.00.00.2LABLAB
167413Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.532.655.22.19.01.10.00.00.0LABLAB
174406Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.433.455.42.56.32.40.00.00.0LABLAB
177403Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.534.956.22.43.03.50.00.00.0LABLAB
179401Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.435.656.33.03.02.10.00.00.0LABLAB
181399Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.935.556.12.43.03.00.00.00.0LABLAB
186394Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.133.853.53.67.91.10.00.00.0LABLAB
190390Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.437.255.82.83.01.10.00.00.0LABLAB
192388Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.327.745.815.19.22.30.00.00.0LABLAB
195385Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.434.852.32.29.51.10.00.00.0LABLAB
196384Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.537.454.12.63.02.90.00.00.0LABLAB
201379Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.838.554.32.13.02.10.00.00.0LABLAB
204376Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.837.252.41.97.41.10.00.00.0LABLAB
207373Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.538.853.32.73.02.10.00.00.0LABLAB
208372Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.238.352.32.15.81.20.00.00.2LABLAB
221359Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.238.550.22.87.01.20.00.00.3LABLAB
222358Bury North James Frith67,58770.941.252.62.03.01.10.00.00.0LABLAB
227353Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.239.049.63.06.51.90.00.00.0LABLAB
230350Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.340.550.53.33.02.70.00.00.0LABLAB
232348Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.839.849.31.96.92.10.00.00.0LABLAB
246334Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.341.047.45.53.91.40.00.00.8LABLAB
260320Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.543.846.52.75.11.90.00.00.0LABLAB
262318Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.743.846.22.56.51.10.00.00.0LABLAB
278302Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.144.745.13.06.11.10.00.00.0CONLAB
284296Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.045.845.22.23.02.30.01.60.0CONCON
287293Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.344.443.73.86.02.20.00.00.0CONCON
294286Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.545.844.13.35.61.10.00.00.0CONCON
298282Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.146.143.51.96.42.10.00.00.0CONCON
305275Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.146.642.93.06.41.10.00.00.0CONCON
306274Southport Damien Moore69,40069.135.431.626.55.41.10.00.00.0CONCON
307273Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.247.643.53.13.02.80.00.00.0CONCON
331249Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.147.837.97.73.33.10.00.00.2CONCON
335245Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.449.638.33.85.82.10.00.00.3CONCON
342238Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.249.435.86.23.93.70.00.00.9CONCON
385195Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.353.433.25.25.32.90.00.00.0CONCON
390190Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.855.034.14.93.03.00.00.00.0CONCON
391189Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.053.632.65.55.32.70.00.00.1CONCON
395185Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.854.632.95.93.03.50.00.00.0CONCON
403177Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.442.219.533.03.02.30.00.00.0CONCON
407173Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.155.632.55.13.03.80.00.00.0CONCON
408172Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.041.318.236.43.01.10.00.00.0CONCON
447133Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.455.327.59.13.83.50.00.00.8CONCON
48496Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.357.225.27.95.93.50.00.00.4CONCON
48891Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.941.18.845.92.91.10.00.00.3LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.