North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 32.5%04-416
LAB 54.9%54 55.3%40+458
LIB 5.4%1 5.4%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 4.3%00+00
Green 1.1%0 1.6%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ribble South (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
1570Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.36.985.91.51.11.50.02.90.2LABLAB
2569Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.97.485.52.13.51.20.00.00.2LABLAB
3568Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.97.884.72.51.23.60.00.00.2LABLAB
4567Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.37.983.01.21.21.00.04.80.9LABLAB
5566Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.09.784.31.71.51.70.00.01.1LABLAB
10561Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.05.976.55.73.02.50.05.70.9LABLAB
11560Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.99.679.86.61.51.70.00.00.8LABLAB
15556Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.111.477.73.44.72.10.00.00.7LABLAB
20551Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.114.278.13.22.21.90.00.00.4LABLAB
21550Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.98.371.916.01.31.90.00.00.7LABLAB
23548Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.714.877.22.62.32.70.00.00.5LABLAB
32539Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.417.773.31.85.50.50.00.01.1LABLAB
41530Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.017.670.91.87.11.70.00.00.9LABLAB
43528Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.719.371.91.64.91.90.00.00.5LABLAB
48523St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.917.868.34.06.23.20.00.00.5LABLAB
55516Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.619.968.43.46.31.50.00.00.5LABLAB
58513Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.222.970.21.52.50.50.01.80.5LABLAB
68503Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.021.365.92.77.42.20.00.00.5LABLAB
72499Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.923.667.22.04.71.80.00.00.7LABLAB
80491Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.223.765.62.16.71.50.00.00.5LABLAB
86485St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.023.164.22.66.73.00.00.00.5LABLAB
88483Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.224.064.02.27.11.80.00.01.0LABLAB
90481Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.524.463.74.35.12.00.00.00.5LABLAB
94477Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.124.562.61.98.32.10.00.00.5LABLAB
99472Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.025.762.63.35.71.80.00.00.9LABLAB
108463Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.425.761.11.99.11.80.00.00.5LABLAB
114457Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.529.163.52.72.51.80.00.00.5LABLAB
119452Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.124.458.48.15.80.50.01.81.0LABLAB
128443Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.227.460.62.82.50.50.05.70.5LABLAB
131440Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.828.060.81.67.21.90.00.00.5LABLAB
155416Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.232.859.61.84.11.20.00.00.5LABLAB
160411Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.233.459.32.02.51.80.00.01.0LABLAB
163408Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.531.956.62.08.40.50.00.00.5LABLAB
170401Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.432.756.82.55.71.80.00.00.5LABLAB
173398Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.534.257.62.42.52.90.00.00.5LABLAB
174397Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.434.957.72.92.51.60.00.00.5LABLAB
176395Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.934.757.52.42.52.40.00.00.5LABLAB
180391Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.133.154.93.67.40.50.00.00.5LABLAB
184387Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.436.557.22.82.50.50.00.00.5LABLAB
186385Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.327.047.215.08.61.70.00.00.5LABLAB
188383Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.434.153.72.29.00.50.00.00.5LABLAB
189382Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.536.755.52.62.52.30.00.00.5LABLAB
194377Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.837.855.72.02.51.50.00.00.5LABLAB
197374Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.836.553.81.86.80.50.00.00.5LABLAB
199372Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.538.154.72.62.51.50.00.00.5LABLAB
201370Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.237.653.72.15.10.50.00.01.0LABLAB
213358Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.237.851.62.76.20.50.00.01.2LABLAB
214357Bury North James Frith67,58770.940.554.01.92.50.50.00.00.5LABLAB
219352Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.238.251.02.96.01.30.00.00.5LABLAB
222349Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.339.851.93.22.52.10.00.00.5LABLAB
224347Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.839.150.71.86.31.50.00.00.5LABLAB
237334Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.340.348.85.42.50.50.00.02.5LABLAB
252319Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.543.147.92.74.51.30.00.00.5LABLAB
254317Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.743.147.52.45.90.50.00.00.5LABLAB
270301Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.143.946.52.95.60.50.00.00.5CONLAB
276295Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.045.046.62.12.51.70.01.60.5CONLAB
278293Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.343.745.03.75.41.60.00.00.5CONLAB
286285Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.545.145.53.35.10.50.00.00.5CONLAB
290281Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.145.444.91.85.91.50.00.00.5CONCON
297274Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.145.944.22.95.90.50.00.00.5CONCON
298273Southport Damien Moore69,40069.134.733.026.44.90.50.00.00.5CONCON
299272Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.246.944.83.12.52.20.00.00.5CONCON
322249Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.147.039.37.72.52.40.00.01.1CONCON
326245Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.448.939.73.85.01.40.00.01.1CONCON
334237Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.248.737.26.22.52.80.00.02.6CONCON
373198Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.352.634.65.24.82.30.00.00.5CONCON
379192Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.854.335.44.92.52.40.00.00.5CONCON
380191Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.052.934.05.54.72.10.00.00.8CONCON
386185Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.853.934.35.92.52.90.00.00.5CONCON
394177Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.441.520.932.92.51.70.00.00.5CONCON
397174Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.154.933.85.02.53.30.00.00.5CONCON
399172Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.040.619.536.32.50.50.00.00.5CONCON
436135Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.454.628.99.02.52.60.00.02.4CONCON
47299Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.356.526.67.85.02.80.00.01.4CONCON
48189Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.940.49.745.82.50.50.00.01.1LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.