| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 12.7% | 5 | 11.2% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 37 | 17.3% | 0 | 31 | -31 | 6 |
| LIB | 9.7% | 6 | 9.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 6 |
| Reform | 7.0% | 0 | 20.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 3.8% | 0 | 5.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 30.0% | 9 | 32.6% | 32 | 0 | +32 | 41 |
| Other | 1.5% | 0 | 4.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Rutherglen' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aberdeen North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aberdeen South (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh North and Leith (prediction: SNP).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 451 | Rutherglen | Michael Shanks | 72,674 | 58.5 | 2.3 | 38.7 | 1.3 | 13.0 | 1.3 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 6.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 8 | 447 | Airdrie and Shotts | Kenneth Stevenson | 70,199 | 52.2 | 2.0 | 38.0 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.3 | 37.3 | 0.0 | 5.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 12 | 442 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Frank McNally | 72,667 | 53.3 | 1.6 | 35.6 | 0.7 | 13.8 | 4.4 | 39.5 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 30 | 424 | Dunbartonshire West | Douglas McAllister | 69,074 | 57.3 | 2.1 | 33.1 | 1.2 | 16.2 | 5.0 | 38.7 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 35 | 420 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Imogen Walker | 75,480 | 55.8 | 6.8 | 34.9 | 2.3 | 19.0 | 1.3 | 32.4 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 44 | 410 | Glasgow West | Patricia Ferguson | 69,028 | 57.8 | 2.6 | 30.6 | 2.0 | 15.7 | 10.4 | 35.2 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 44 | 410 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Pamela Nash | 71,777 | 54.4 | 3.8 | 33.0 | 1.4 | 18.1 | 4.4 | 35.7 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 46 | 409 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 70,839 | 66.1 | 6.8 | 33.5 | 5.2 | 19.1 | 10.5 | 19.3 | 0.0 | 5.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 48 | 406 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Joani Reid | 76,415 | 61.1 | 4.8 | 32.3 | 1.5 | 18.4 | 5.2 | 33.7 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 61 | 393 | Midlothian | Kirsty McNeill | 73,916 | 59.8 | 4.9 | 32.1 | 4.1 | 19.5 | 1.3 | 34.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 68 | 386 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Martin McCluskey | 70,124 | 57.5 | 4.8 | 29.9 | 2.2 | 18.2 | 4.2 | 35.2 | 0.0 | 5.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 80 | 375 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Torcuil Crichton | 21,235 | 63.7 | 3.8 | 29.8 | 2.5 | 19.4 | 1.3 | 23.7 | 0.0 | 19.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 374 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Johanna Baxter | 71,574 | 57.7 | 3.7 | 29.7 | 2.4 | 19.4 | 5.4 | 35.4 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 100 | 355 | Lothian East | Douglas Alexander | 75,456 | 63.7 | 9.4 | 29.3 | 4.9 | 21.6 | 6.5 | 24.2 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 101 | 353 | Glasgow North East | Maureen Burke | 72,610 | 47.0 | 2.6 | 27.1 | 1.5 | 19.6 | 8.5 | 35.3 | 0.0 | 5.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 115 | 339 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor | 71,103 | 58.4 | 5.0 | 27.8 | 2.9 | 21.9 | 4.8 | 34.7 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 122 | 332 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Graeme Downie | 72,824 | 61.2 | 5.9 | 26.1 | 6.3 | 21.5 | 6.0 | 29.9 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 122 | 332 | Renfrewshire East | Blair McDougall | 73,380 | 68.4 | 14.8 | 24.1 | 2.1 | 19.6 | 4.3 | 29.6 | 0.0 | 5.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 124 | 330 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Kirsteen Sullivan | 72,185 | 58.3 | 6.0 | 27.4 | 4.6 | 23.2 | 4.6 | 29.9 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 124 | 330 | Glasgow South | Gordon McKee | 70,219 | 60.4 | 3.1 | 22.2 | 2.8 | 18.1 | 14.3 | 34.5 | 0.0 | 4.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 126 | 328 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Tracy Gilbert | 78,411 | 63.1 | 5.3 | 22.5 | 6.9 | 18.5 | 12.2 | 30.1 | 0.0 | 4.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 129 | 325 | Glasgow North | Martin Rhodes | 67,579 | 51.4 | 3.1 | 22.7 | 2.9 | 18.8 | 13.4 | 34.6 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 130 | 324 | Glasgow South West | Zubir Ahmed | 68,871 | 51.8 | 3.1 | 24.0 | 2.4 | 20.3 | 8.9 | 36.9 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 130 | 324 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Melanie Ward | 71,845 | 56.8 | 6.3 | 26.1 | 3.5 | 22.4 | 5.1 | 30.7 | 0.0 | 6.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 131 | 323 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Katrina Murray | 70,350 | 58.2 | 3.8 | 25.6 | 2.8 | 22.0 | 5.4 | 37.7 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 131 | 323 | Glasgow East | John Grady | 68,988 | 51.4 | 3.9 | 24.3 | 2.2 | 20.8 | 8.9 | 35.8 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 135 | 319 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Chris Murray | 76,188 | 59.8 | 4.6 | 21.7 | 3.8 | 19.1 | 11.5 | 35.7 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 137 | 317 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Lillian Jones | 74,628 | 56.9 | 6.6 | 25.3 | 1.8 | 22.8 | 4.2 | 35.5 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 145 | 309 | Edinburgh South West | Scott Arthur | 73,784 | 61.9 | 10.1 | 21.4 | 5.8 | 19.8 | 8.9 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 147 | 307 | Ayrshire Central | Alan Gemmell | 69,413 | 59.7 | 12.8 | 24.1 | 2.2 | 23.1 | 3.8 | 29.8 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 147 | 307 | Falkirk | Euan Stainbank | 73,584 | 57.9 | 6.7 | 23.5 | 2.3 | 22.5 | 5.3 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 149 | 305 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Richard Baker | 70,655 | 51.1 | 4.4 | 24.7 | 3.9 | 24.2 | 1.3 | 38.7 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 149 | 305 | Alloa and Grangemouth | Brian Leishman | 70,680 | 58.3 | 6.1 | 24.2 | 2.5 | 23.8 | 4.7 | 31.6 | 0.7 | 6.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 166 | 288 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,221 | 52.3 | 3.2 | 18.8 | 5.4 | 20.4 | 1.2 | 42.6 | 0.6 | 7.7 | SNP | SNP |
| 170 | 284 | Livingston | Gregor Poynton | 78,043 | 57.5 | 6.2 | 21.4 | 4.0 | 23.6 | 5.1 | 35.7 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 174 | 280 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Irene Campbell | 72,176 | 58.6 | 12.0 | 20.3 | 2.2 | 22.9 | 4.5 | 34.1 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 210 | 244 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Elaine Stewart | 70,340 | 58.2 | 20.5 | 17.1 | 2.4 | 23.5 | 3.5 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 213 | 241 | Stirling and Strathallan | Chris Kane | 76,284 | 65.3 | 16.9 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 21.3 | 6.0 | 33.8 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 228 | 226 | Fife North East | Wendy Chamberlain | 69,762 | 61.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 58.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 26.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 231 | 223 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Campbell Bowie | 72,994 | 67.1 | 44.6 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 37.1 | 0.0 | 2.5 | CON | CON |
| 231 | 223 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 76,438 | 60.9 | 47.8 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 33.7 | 0.0 | 3.2 | CON | CON |
| 232 | 222 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Jamie Stone | 74,627 | 61.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 53.4 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 29.8 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 232 | 222 | Gordon and Buchan | Harriet Cross | 69,605 | 63.0 | 43.4 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 1.0 | 40.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | CON | CON |
| 236 | 218 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 76,668 | 61.8 | 36.6 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 9.0 | 1.1 | 47.3 | 0.0 | 3.7 | SNP | SNP |
| 252 | 202 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Angus MacDonald | 77,927 | 61.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 43.2 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 37.6 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 284 | 170 | Dunbartonshire Mid | Susan Murray | 73,596 | 71.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 46.1 | 13.9 | 4.5 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 292 | 162 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 77,261 | 64.8 | 32.7 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 14.1 | 1.2 | 43.3 | 0.0 | 4.1 | SNP | SNP |
| 292 | 162 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,236 | 60.4 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 53.8 | 13.7 | 10.6 | 18.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 299 | 155 | Edinburgh West | Christine Anne Jardine | 76,490 | 68.6 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 50.7 | 14.6 | 5.1 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 327 | 127 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 77,328 | 59.9 | 22.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 21.9 | 4.8 | 35.5 | 0.0 | 4.4 | SNP | SNP |
| 336 | 118 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Graham Leadbitter | 77,072 | 60.4 | 31.4 | 0.5 | 5.6 | 17.5 | 4.8 | 36.6 | 0.0 | 3.6 | SNP | SNP |
| 343 | 111 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Seamus Logan | 70,058 | 54.5 | 35.8 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 17.5 | 1.0 | 39.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 | SNP | SNP |
| 345 | 109 | Dumfries and Galloway | John Cooper | 78,541 | 58.3 | 27.5 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 24.2 | 4.0 | 30.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | CON | SNP |
| 364 | 90 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 71,900 | 61.5 | 31.8 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 23.6 | 4.7 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | CON | CON |
| 375 | 79 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 71,756 | 62.5 | 18.8 | 0.7 | 15.2 | 21.6 | 1.3 | 37.4 | 0.0 | 5.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 420 | 34 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stephen Patrick Gethins | 76,149 | 57.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 31.8 | 1.3 | 48.6 | 0.0 | 5.1 | SNP | SNP |
| 430 | 24 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 75,925 | 55.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 32.0 | 4.3 | 47.3 | 0.0 | 6.0 | SNP | SNP |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.