Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 24.0%02-211
LAB 27.1%7 27.0%03-34
LIB 6.8%4 6.3%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 1.3%00+00
Green 0.2%0 2.7%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 38.0%50+540
Minor 0.3%0 0.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stirling (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Lanark and Hamilton East (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
84490Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.
111462Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.09.842.
135439Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.312.442.
144429Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.211.940.
145428Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.910.638.
158415Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.
160413Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.614.338.
162411Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.
166407Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.514.937.
171402Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.515.537.
172401Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.913.735.
172401Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.414.536.
174399Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.612.533.
179394Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.416.737.
179394Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.712.333.
179394Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.
180393Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.913.933.
181392Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.914.834.
181392Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.014.834.
185388Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.218.437.
187386Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.518.536.
197377Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.320.736.
206367Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.419.933.
211362Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.719.632.
214359Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.217.929.
220354East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.624.836.
222351East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.320.531.
230343Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.122.831.
231342Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.222.431.
232341Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.421.429.
237336Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.421.928.
239334Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.124.331.
244329Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.16.611.447.02.01.829.80.01.3LIBLIB
244329Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.327.331.
252321Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.222.625.
252321Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.111.114.539.01.12.531.40.00.4LIBLIB
270303Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.826.527.
289284Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.428.626.
291282Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.817.114.932.
299274Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.329.626.
307266Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.917.812.434.
315258Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.720.
320254Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.735.
324249Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.725.716.
324249Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.319.39.631.
326247Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.332.322.
330244Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.935.323.
354219Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.528.412.516.
359215Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.636.719.
361213Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.537.420.
368206Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.538.520.
409164Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.435.911.810.71.32.837.10.00.4CONSNP
437136Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.837.510.
442132Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.040.413.
450124Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.444.616.
48094Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.442.810.
48391Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.
50668Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.643.
55618Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.549.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.