Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 25.2%04-49
LAB 27.1%7 26.8%04-43
LIB 6.8%4 6.0%02-22
UKIP 0.2%0 0.7%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.2%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 40.0%100+1045
Minor 0.3%0 0.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ross Skye and Lochaber (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
93478Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.116.354.62.50.40.925.40.00.0LABLAB
134436Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.010.742.61.70.30.644.10.00.0LABSNP
147424Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.313.442.31.70.40.741.50.00.0LABLAB
153417Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.212.940.21.61.70.742.90.00.0SNPSNP
155415Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.911.538.12.50.30.746.90.00.0SNPSNP
173397Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.214.237.42.00.40.845.40.00.0SNPSNP
176394Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.615.538.31.41.80.941.70.00.5SNPSNP
179391Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.112.234.22.90.410.440.00.00.0SNPSNP
181389Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.516.137.23.61.41.040.20.00.4LABSNP
183387Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.914.935.63.00.40.845.20.00.0SNPSNP
183387Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.516.737.51.91.70.941.40.00.0SNPSNP
184386Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.415.836.22.80.40.943.90.00.0SNPSNP
187383Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.613.633.51.40.40.742.97.50.0SNPSNP
188382Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.713.332.72.60.40.849.50.00.6SNPSNP
188382Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.418.037.22.10.40.941.40.00.0SNPSNP
188382Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.015.334.43.60.40.945.40.00.0SNPSNP
191379Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.915.133.62.41.80.846.30.00.0SNPSNP
191379Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.916.134.42.60.40.945.70.00.0SNPSNP
192378Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.016.134.32.70.51.144.20.01.1SNPSNP
197373Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.219.736.81.80.40.940.40.00.0SNPSNP
198372Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.519.836.52.11.60.939.10.00.0LABSNP
212358Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.321.936.03.20.50.937.40.00.0LABSNP
220350Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.421.233.65.00.51.038.70.00.0SNPSNP
224346Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.720.932.42.50.40.943.00.00.0SNPSNP
228342Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.219.229.73.90.51.144.80.00.8SNPSNP
232339East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.626.135.82.70.50.933.70.00.4LABLAB
232338East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.321.831.42.51.60.941.80.00.0SNPSNP
240330Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.124.031.52.70.50.940.40.00.0SNPSNP
241329Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.223.730.83.90.54.037.10.00.0SNPSNP
242328Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.422.729.51.81.82.541.80.00.0SNPSNP
248322Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.423.228.61.80.40.945.20.00.0SNPSNP
249321Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.125.630.82.90.50.939.30.00.0SNPSNP
258312Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.17.211.345.71.81.132.50.00.6LIBLIB
266304Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.328.631.62.11.50.935.40.00.0SNPSNP
271299Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.112.014.337.60.61.234.20.00.0LIBLIB
275295Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.223.925.73.20.50.945.80.00.0SNPSNP
289281Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.827.727.22.00.40.941.80.00.0SNPSNP
304266Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.429.926.43.70.50.938.60.00.0SNPSNP
304266Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.818.414.731.40.71.433.30.00.1LIBSNP
310260Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.330.925.82.00.40.940.00.00.0SNPSNP
317253Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.919.112.232.90.71.433.70.00.0LIBSNP
326244Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.721.412.018.00.81.545.40.00.9SNPSNP
328243Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.736.526.41.80.40.934.10.00.0CONCON
332238Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.727.015.910.50.61.344.00.00.6SNPSNP
332238Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.320.69.529.90.71.437.60.00.3SNPSNP
335235Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.333.621.82.90.51.039.90.00.4CONSNP
342228Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.936.623.51.60.40.836.90.00.0CONSNP
370200Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.529.712.415.50.71.340.40.00.0SNPSNP
375195Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.638.019.72.70.50.938.20.00.0CONSNP
377194Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.538.620.25.00.51.034.70.00.0CONCON
383188Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.539.820.62.10.51.035.60.00.6CONCON
434136Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.437.211.69.90.61.139.60.00.0CONSNP
455115Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.838.810.24.30.50.945.30.00.0SNPSNP
461110Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.041.712.82.80.40.941.40.00.0CONCON
470101Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.445.916.33.40.50.933.10.00.0CONCON
50665Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.444.110.81.90.40.941.70.00.2CONCON
50863Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.244.410.97.40.51.035.80.00.0CONCON
52843Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.644.59.33.00.40.942.00.00.0CONCON
55912Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.550.48.54.00.50.935.70.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.