Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 26.7%01-112
LAB 27.1%7 25.3%04-43
LIB 6.8%4 6.3%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.3%00+00
Green 0.2%0 2.7%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 38.4%50+540
Minor 0.3%0 0.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Renfrewshire East (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Linlithgow and East Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
93481Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.117.753.02.70.12.524.00.00.1LABLAB
130443Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.011.641.01.90.12.043.40.00.1LABSNP
145429Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.314.640.71.90.12.240.40.00.1LABLAB
150423Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.214.038.51.71.52.242.00.00.1SNPSNP
152421Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.912.536.52.70.12.146.00.00.1SNPSNP
172401Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.215.535.72.10.12.344.20.00.1SNPSNP
173400Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.616.936.61.51.52.440.20.00.9SNPSNP
174399Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.113.332.53.20.111.939.00.00.1SNPSNP
180393Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.517.635.63.91.12.538.50.00.8LABSNP
181392Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.916.233.93.30.12.443.90.00.1SNPSNP
182391Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.518.235.82.01.42.540.00.00.1SNPSNP
182391Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.417.234.63.00.12.542.60.00.1SNPSNP
184389Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.614.831.81.60.12.241.97.50.1SNPSNP
185388Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.714.531.12.80.12.348.00.01.1SNPSNP
187386Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.419.535.62.30.12.540.00.00.1SNPSNP
188385Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.016.732.73.90.12.544.00.00.1SNPSNP
188385Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.916.431.92.61.52.445.10.00.1SNPSNP
190383Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.917.532.82.80.12.544.30.00.1SNPSNP
191382Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.017.532.62.90.12.542.20.02.2SNPSNP
195378Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.221.235.11.90.12.539.10.00.1SNPSNP
197376Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.521.334.92.21.32.537.80.00.1LABSNP
210363Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.323.434.43.50.12.535.90.00.1LABSNP
218355Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.422.731.95.50.22.637.10.00.1SNPSNP
223350Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.722.430.72.70.12.541.60.00.1SNPSNP
227346Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.220.728.14.30.12.642.80.01.5SNPSNP
231343East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.627.634.12.90.12.532.10.00.7LABLAB
231342East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.323.329.82.71.32.540.40.00.1SNPSNP
239334Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.125.529.92.90.12.538.90.00.1SNPSNP
240333Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.225.229.24.20.15.635.60.00.1SNPSNP
241332Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.424.227.81.91.54.140.40.00.1SNPSNP
243330Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.17.810.347.11.32.130.30.01.1LIBLIB
246327Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.424.626.92.00.12.543.80.00.1SNPSNP
247326Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.127.129.23.20.12.537.90.00.1SNPSNP
261312Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.113.113.139.00.22.631.90.00.1LIBLIB
264309Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.330.029.92.21.22.534.10.00.1SNPSNP
270303Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.225.324.13.50.12.544.40.00.1SNPSNP
288285Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.829.225.52.20.12.540.40.00.1SNPSNP
303270Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.819.913.532.80.23.030.40.00.3LIBLIB
303270Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.431.324.84.00.12.637.10.00.1SNPSNP
309264Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.332.424.12.10.12.538.70.00.1SNPSNP
312261Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.920.611.234.30.22.830.90.00.1LIBLIB
324249Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.722.811.019.40.22.842.00.01.8SNPSNP
328246Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.738.024.71.90.12.532.70.00.1CONCON
328245Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.322.18.731.30.22.734.50.00.6SNPSNP
330243Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.728.514.611.30.22.741.50.01.2SNPSNP
333240Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.335.020.13.10.12.538.30.00.8CONSNP
342232Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.938.121.91.70.12.535.60.00.1CONCON
366207Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.531.211.316.80.22.837.70.00.1SNPSNP
374200Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.639.518.13.00.12.536.80.00.1CONCON
375199Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.540.118.65.40.22.633.00.00.1CONCON
381193Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.541.318.92.20.12.533.80.01.1CONCON
426148Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.438.710.710.70.12.437.30.00.1CONCON
450123Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.840.39.44.60.12.043.50.00.1SNPSNP
454120Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.043.111.73.00.12.139.80.00.1CONCON
468106Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.447.414.93.70.12.331.50.00.1CONCON
50470Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.445.59.92.10.11.940.00.00.5CONCON
50668Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.245.810.08.00.12.233.80.00.1CONCON
52054Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.645.98.53.20.11.940.20.00.1CONCON
55915Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.551.97.84.40.11.933.90.00.1CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.