| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 12.7% | 5 | 9.8% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 5 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 37 | 17.2% | 0 | 35 | -35 | 2 |
| LIB | 9.7% | 6 | 8.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 6 |
| Reform | 7.0% | 0 | 18.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 3.8% | 0 | 8.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 30.0% | 9 | 31.8% | 36 | 1 | +35 | 44 |
| Other | 1.5% | 0 | 5.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Coatbridge and Bellshill' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aberdeenshire North and Moray East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aberdeen North (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Coatbridge and Bellshill (prediction: SNP).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 327 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Frank McNally | 72,667 | 53.3 | 1.5 | 30.2 | 0.9 | 14.5 | 8.7 | 36.8 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 27 | 323 | Glasgow West | Patricia Ferguson | 69,028 | 57.8 | 1.9 | 27.9 | 1.7 | 13.4 | 14.5 | 33.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 31 | 319 | Dunbartonshire West | Douglas McAllister | 69,074 | 57.3 | 1.7 | 28.9 | 1.2 | 15.3 | 9.2 | 36.4 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 41 | 309 | Rutherglen | Michael Shanks | 72,674 | 58.5 | 2.8 | 29.8 | 2.4 | 18.0 | 5.6 | 33.8 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 47 | 303 | Airdrie and Shotts | Kenneth Stevenson | 70,199 | 52.2 | 2.4 | 29.9 | 1.3 | 19.2 | 5.7 | 33.9 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 49 | 301 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Pamela Nash | 71,777 | 54.4 | 3.2 | 28.3 | 1.4 | 17.9 | 8.6 | 33.3 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 52 | 299 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 70,839 | 66.1 | 5.1 | 29.3 | 4.4 | 19.1 | 15.0 | 19.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 290 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Joani Reid | 76,415 | 61.1 | 4.1 | 27.4 | 1.6 | 18.6 | 9.4 | 31.6 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 64 | 286 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Imogen Walker | 75,480 | 55.8 | 6.1 | 28.4 | 2.5 | 19.9 | 5.6 | 29.9 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 65 | 285 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Johanna Baxter | 71,574 | 57.7 | 2.9 | 26.4 | 2.2 | 18.0 | 9.5 | 33.7 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 70 | 280 | Midlothian | Kirsty McNeill | 73,916 | 59.8 | 4.1 | 27.2 | 4.1 | 19.4 | 5.5 | 32.5 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 75 | 275 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor | 71,103 | 58.4 | 3.6 | 25.7 | 2.4 | 18.8 | 8.9 | 33.3 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 86 | 265 | Lothian East | Douglas Alexander | 75,456 | 63.7 | 7.3 | 26.3 | 4.2 | 20.4 | 10.7 | 23.7 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 86 | 264 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Martin McCluskey | 70,124 | 57.5 | 4.2 | 25.2 | 2.4 | 19.4 | 8.3 | 33.4 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 86 | 264 | Glasgow North East | Maureen Burke | 72,610 | 47.0 | 2.0 | 24.4 | 1.4 | 18.8 | 12.5 | 33.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 88 | 262 | Glasgow South | Gordon McKee | 70,219 | 60.4 | 2.3 | 21.3 | 2.4 | 15.9 | 18.1 | 33.4 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 89 | 261 | Glasgow North | Martin Rhodes | 67,579 | 51.4 | 2.4 | 21.6 | 2.5 | 16.3 | 17.2 | 33.3 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 89 | 261 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Tracy Gilbert | 78,411 | 63.1 | 3.9 | 21.5 | 5.8 | 16.6 | 16.0 | 29.4 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 90 | 260 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Katrina Murray | 70,350 | 58.2 | 2.8 | 23.7 | 2.5 | 18.8 | 9.3 | 35.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 92 | 258 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Chris Murray | 76,188 | 59.8 | 3.4 | 21.0 | 3.3 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 34.4 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 92 | 258 | Glasgow South West | Zubir Ahmed | 68,871 | 51.8 | 2.3 | 22.6 | 2.1 | 17.8 | 12.7 | 35.6 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 97 | 253 | Glasgow East | John Grady | 68,988 | 51.4 | 2.9 | 22.8 | 2.0 | 18.3 | 12.8 | 34.4 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 99 | 251 | Renfrewshire East | Blair McDougall | 73,380 | 68.4 | 12.7 | 22.7 | 1.8 | 18.4 | 8.2 | 29.3 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 100 | 250 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Graeme Downie | 72,824 | 61.2 | 4.4 | 24.0 | 5.4 | 19.9 | 10.0 | 29.3 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 106 | 244 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Kirsteen Sullivan | 72,185 | 58.3 | 4.5 | 25.0 | 3.9 | 21.6 | 8.7 | 29.2 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 112 | 238 | Edinburgh South West | Scott Arthur | 73,784 | 61.9 | 7.9 | 20.7 | 4.9 | 17.7 | 12.6 | 29.5 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 112 | 238 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Lillian Jones | 74,628 | 56.9 | 5.0 | 23.5 | 1.6 | 20.5 | 8.1 | 34.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 116 | 234 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Melanie Ward | 71,845 | 56.8 | 4.7 | 24.1 | 3.0 | 21.6 | 9.1 | 30.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 123 | 227 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Richard Baker | 70,655 | 51.1 | 3.3 | 23.1 | 3.4 | 21.1 | 5.1 | 37.1 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 126 | 224 | Ayrshire Central | Alan Gemmell | 69,413 | 59.7 | 10.6 | 22.7 | 1.9 | 21.2 | 7.7 | 29.0 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 130 | 220 | Falkirk | Euan Stainbank | 73,584 | 57.9 | 5.0 | 22.2 | 2.0 | 21.2 | 9.2 | 33.6 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 143 | 207 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Torcuil Crichton | 21,235 | 63.7 | 2.9 | 26.7 | 2.2 | 27.0 | 5.8 | 28.1 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 144 | 206 | Livingston | Gregor Poynton | 78,043 | 57.5 | 4.6 | 20.7 | 3.4 | 21.1 | 8.8 | 34.8 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 144 | 206 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Irene Campbell | 72,176 | 58.6 | 9.9 | 20.0 | 1.9 | 20.4 | 8.0 | 33.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 149 | 201 | Alloa and Grangemouth | Brian Leishman | 70,680 | 58.3 | 4.5 | 22.7 | 2.2 | 23.4 | 8.7 | 31.6 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 151 | 199 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,221 | 52.3 | 2.4 | 18.9 | 4.6 | 20.0 | 4.8 | 43.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 154 | 196 | Stirling and Strathallan | Chris Kane | 76,284 | 65.3 | 14.8 | 15.9 | 3.8 | 17.7 | 9.1 | 32.7 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 165 | 185 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Elaine Stewart | 70,340 | 58.2 | 18.4 | 17.7 | 2.1 | 20.6 | 6.8 | 28.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 198 | 152 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 77,328 | 59.9 | 41.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 40.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | SNP | CON |
| 220 | 130 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 77,261 | 64.8 | 32.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 45.6 | 4.4 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 220 | 130 | Dunbartonshire Mid | Susan Murray | 73,596 | 71.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 48.4 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 29.7 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 220 | 130 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 76,438 | 60.9 | 45.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 34.1 | 3.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 220 | 130 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Campbell Bowie | 72,994 | 67.1 | 41.8 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 37.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 222 | 128 | Fife North East | Wendy Chamberlain | 69,762 | 61.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 56.5 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 25.6 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 229 | 121 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 76,668 | 61.8 | 33.3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 47.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 233 | 117 | Gordon and Buchan | Harriet Cross | 69,605 | 63.0 | 40.6 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 39.7 | 3.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 240 | 110 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Angus MacDonald | 77,927 | 61.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 41.7 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 37.1 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 241 | 109 | Edinburgh West | Christine Anne Jardine | 76,490 | 68.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 52.1 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 22.6 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 244 | 106 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Jamie Stone | 74,627 | 61.7 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 51.9 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 30.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 246 | 104 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Graham Leadbitter | 77,072 | 60.4 | 31.9 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 38.7 | 4.4 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 246 | 104 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 71,900 | 61.5 | 34.1 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 14.8 | 7.1 | 29.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 249 | 101 | Dumfries and Galloway | John Cooper | 78,541 | 58.3 | 26.1 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 19.2 | 6.6 | 29.9 | 5.1 | 0.0 | CON | SNP |
| 276 | 74 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 71,756 | 62.5 | 16.6 | 6.0 | 13.8 | 18.2 | 3.5 | 37.4 | 4.5 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 289 | 61 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,236 | 60.4 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 52.4 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 17.9 | 2.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 290 | 60 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stephen Patrick Gethins | 76,149 | 57.9 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 24.7 | 2.3 | 44.7 | 2.9 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 330 | 20 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 75,925 | 55.4 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 26.8 | 7.3 | 44.9 | 5.6 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 331 | 19 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Seamus Logan | 70,058 | 54.5 | 30.2 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 20.8 | 2.8 | 37.5 | 3.6 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.