| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 12.7% | 5 | 10.0% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 5 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 37 | 18.0% | 0 | 26 | -26 | 11 |
| LIB | 9.7% | 6 | 10.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 6 |
| Reform | 7.0% | 0 | 17.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 3.8% | 0 | 10.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 30.0% | 9 | 29.0% | 27 | 1 | +26 | 35 |
| Other | 1.5% | 0 | 6.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Coatbridge and Bellshill' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aberdeenshire North and Moray East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke (prediction: SNP).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 350 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Frank McNally | 72,667 | 53.3 | 1.1 | 33.5 | 0.8 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 36.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 50 | 348 | Glasgow West | Patricia Ferguson | 69,028 | 57.8 | 1.3 | 31.8 | 1.3 | 9.7 | 15.7 | 33.0 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 51 | 348 | Rutherglen | Michael Shanks | 72,674 | 58.5 | 2.0 | 34.9 | 2.1 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 32.5 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 57 | 341 | Dunbartonshire West | Douglas McAllister | 69,074 | 57.3 | 1.3 | 32.4 | 1.1 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 35.8 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 64 | 335 | Midlothian | Kirsty McNeill | 73,916 | 59.8 | 3.0 | 33.2 | 3.5 | 13.6 | 7.0 | 32.3 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 70 | 329 | Airdrie and Shotts | Kenneth Stevenson | 70,199 | 52.2 | 1.8 | 33.8 | 1.3 | 14.8 | 7.7 | 32.8 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 72 | 326 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Pamela Nash | 71,777 | 54.4 | 2.5 | 32.3 | 1.4 | 13.7 | 10.0 | 32.7 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 83 | 316 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Joani Reid | 76,415 | 61.1 | 3.2 | 31.7 | 1.6 | 14.2 | 11.1 | 30.7 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 87 | 311 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Johanna Baxter | 71,574 | 57.7 | 2.3 | 30.7 | 2.1 | 13.6 | 11.0 | 33.1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 90 | 308 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor | 71,103 | 58.4 | 2.8 | 30.1 | 2.3 | 14.2 | 10.1 | 33.1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 94 | 304 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Martin McCluskey | 70,124 | 57.5 | 3.2 | 29.8 | 2.4 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 32.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 105 | 294 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Graeme Downie | 72,824 | 61.2 | 3.6 | 29.1 | 5.4 | 14.8 | 11.7 | 28.2 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 109 | 290 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Imogen Walker | 75,480 | 55.8 | 5.7 | 31.1 | 3.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | 27.9 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 120 | 279 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 70,839 | 66.1 | 5.3 | 30.4 | 6.4 | 17.2 | 17.3 | 15.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 124 | 274 | Glasgow North East | Maureen Burke | 72,610 | 47.0 | 1.7 | 27.7 | 1.5 | 14.8 | 14.2 | 32.8 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 125 | 273 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Katrina Murray | 70,350 | 58.2 | 2.3 | 27.5 | 2.5 | 14.6 | 10.3 | 35.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 129 | 270 | Renfrewshire East | Blair McDougall | 73,380 | 68.4 | 10.8 | 27.2 | 2.2 | 15.0 | 10.6 | 27.1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 133 | 265 | Glasgow South West | Zubir Ahmed | 68,871 | 51.8 | 1.9 | 26.0 | 2.3 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 34.8 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 141 | 257 | Glasgow East | John Grady | 68,988 | 51.4 | 2.5 | 25.8 | 2.2 | 15.0 | 14.2 | 33.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 162 | 237 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Kirsteen Sullivan | 72,185 | 58.3 | 4.1 | 27.9 | 4.8 | 18.2 | 10.4 | 27.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 164 | 234 | Edinburgh South West | Scott Arthur | 73,784 | 61.9 | 7.3 | 23.9 | 6.1 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 27.1 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 172 | 227 | Lothian East | Douglas Alexander | 75,456 | 63.7 | 7.6 | 27.3 | 6.0 | 18.5 | 12.7 | 20.3 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 178 | 220 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Chris Murray | 76,188 | 59.8 | 3.4 | 22.6 | 4.4 | 14.1 | 16.5 | 32.3 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 180 | 218 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Tracy Gilbert | 78,411 | 63.1 | 4.1 | 22.5 | 8.2 | 14.4 | 17.6 | 26.3 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 183 | 215 | Glasgow South | Gordon McKee | 70,219 | 60.4 | 2.4 | 22.3 | 3.5 | 14.6 | 19.6 | 30.9 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 183 | 215 | Glasgow North | Martin Rhodes | 67,579 | 51.4 | 2.5 | 22.6 | 3.7 | 15.0 | 18.6 | 30.9 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 201 | 197 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Lillian Jones | 74,628 | 56.9 | 5.1 | 24.8 | 2.3 | 18.9 | 9.8 | 31.9 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 208 | 190 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Melanie Ward | 71,845 | 56.8 | 4.9 | 25.2 | 4.3 | 20.0 | 11.5 | 27.0 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 216 | 182 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Richard Baker | 70,655 | 51.1 | 3.4 | 24.0 | 4.8 | 19.6 | 6.2 | 35.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 221 | 177 | Ayrshire Central | Alan Gemmell | 69,413 | 59.7 | 10.9 | 23.7 | 2.8 | 19.9 | 9.7 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 225 | 173 | Falkirk | Euan Stainbank | 73,584 | 57.9 | 5.2 | 23.2 | 3.0 | 19.9 | 11.4 | 30.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 242 | 157 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Torcuil Crichton | 21,235 | 63.7 | 3.0 | 27.9 | 3.7 | 25.6 | 12.2 | 20.1 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 243 | 155 | Livingston | Gregor Poynton | 78,043 | 57.5 | 4.8 | 21.7 | 4.9 | 19.5 | 10.4 | 31.9 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 249 | 149 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Irene Campbell | 72,176 | 58.6 | 10.1 | 21.0 | 2.8 | 19.1 | 10.0 | 30.3 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 250 | 148 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,221 | 52.3 | 2.5 | 20.0 | 6.6 | 18.1 | 7.4 | 39.0 | 6.4 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 251 | 147 | Alloa and Grangemouth | Brian Leishman | 70,680 | 58.3 | 4.7 | 23.8 | 3.3 | 22.0 | 11.3 | 27.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 254 | 144 | Stirling and Strathallan | Chris Kane | 76,284 | 65.3 | 15.1 | 16.9 | 5.4 | 15.9 | 10.6 | 30.0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 271 | 127 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Elaine Stewart | 70,340 | 58.2 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 3.0 | 19.3 | 8.7 | 25.3 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 307 | 91 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stephen Patrick Gethins | 76,149 | 57.9 | 13.6 | 16.0 | 5.9 | 19.9 | 3.9 | 37.8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 308 | 90 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 77,328 | 59.9 | 42.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 38.1 | 2.6 | 0.0 | SNP | CON |
| 320 | 78 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 77,261 | 64.8 | 35.0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 44.4 | 4.5 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 324 | 74 | Dunbartonshire Mid | Susan Murray | 73,596 | 71.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 51.1 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 27.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 328 | 70 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Graham Leadbitter | 77,072 | 60.4 | 36.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 39.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 333 | 65 | Fife North East | Wendy Chamberlain | 69,762 | 61.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 59.0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 23.6 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 333 | 65 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 76,668 | 61.8 | 35.0 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 45.6 | 4.1 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 333 | 65 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Campbell Bowie | 72,994 | 67.1 | 42.5 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 34.9 | 4.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 334 | 64 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 76,438 | 60.9 | 45.8 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 31.6 | 4.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 336 | 62 | Dumfries and Galloway | John Cooper | 78,541 | 58.3 | 30.6 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 13.9 | 8.2 | 31.1 | 5.2 | 0.0 | CON | SNP |
| 346 | 52 | Edinburgh West | Christine Anne Jardine | 76,490 | 68.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 54.1 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 19.6 | 4.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 348 | 50 | Gordon and Buchan | Harriet Cross | 69,605 | 63.0 | 41.3 | 0.2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 37.5 | 3.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 349 | 49 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Angus MacDonald | 77,927 | 61.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 44.2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 34.7 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 351 | 47 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 75,925 | 55.4 | 9.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 20.7 | 9.8 | 34.7 | 5.7 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 353 | 45 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 71,900 | 61.5 | 32.3 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 15.2 | 8.6 | 25.4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 355 | 43 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Jamie Stone | 74,627 | 61.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 54.4 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 27.3 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 367 | 31 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 71,756 | 62.5 | 16.9 | 6.8 | 16.8 | 15.8 | 5.5 | 33.7 | 4.6 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 381 | 17 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,236 | 60.4 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 55.2 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 16.3 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 394 | 4 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Seamus Logan | 70,058 | 54.5 | 34.4 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 15.3 | 4.1 | 37.3 | 3.7 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.