Scotland: Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 12.7%5 10.0%11+05
LAB 35.3%37 18.0%026-2611
LIB 9.7%6 10.0%00+06
Reform 7.0%0 17.0%00+00
Green 3.8%0 10.0%00+00
SNP 30.0%9 29.0%271+2635
Other 1.5%0 6.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Coatbridge and Bellshill' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aberdeenshire North and Moray East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
48350Coatbridge and Bellshill Frank McNally72,66753.31.133.50.811.010.136.07.50.0LABSNP
50348Glasgow West Patricia Ferguson69,02857.81.331.81.39.715.733.07.20.0LABSNP
51348Rutherglen Michael Shanks72,67458.52.034.92.112.97.932.57.70.0LABLAB
57341Dunbartonshire West Douglas McAllister69,07457.31.332.41.111.510.435.87.40.0LABSNP
64335Midlothian Kirsty McNeill73,91659.83.033.23.513.67.032.37.50.0LABLAB
70329Airdrie and Shotts Kenneth Stevenson70,19952.21.833.81.314.87.732.87.70.0LABLAB
72326Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Pamela Nash71,77754.42.532.31.413.710.032.77.50.0LABSNP
83316East Kilbride and Strathaven Joani Reid76,41561.13.231.71.614.211.130.77.50.0LABLAB
87311Paisley and Renfrewshire South Johanna Baxter71,57457.72.330.72.113.611.033.17.30.0LABSNP
90308Paisley and Renfrewshire North Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor71,10358.42.830.12.314.210.133.17.30.0LABSNP
94304Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Martin McCluskey70,12457.53.229.82.414.610.432.27.30.0LABSNP
105294Dunfermline and Dollar Graeme Downie72,82461.23.629.15.414.811.728.27.20.0LABLAB
109290Hamilton and Clyde Valley Imogen Walker75,48055.85.731.13.117.07.427.97.70.0LABLAB
120279Edinburgh South Ian Murray70,83966.15.330.46.417.217.315.48.00.0LABLAB
124274Glasgow North East Maureen Burke72,61047.01.727.71.514.814.232.87.20.0LABSNP
125273Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Katrina Murray70,35058.22.327.52.514.610.335.67.10.0LABSNP
129270Renfrewshire East Blair McDougall73,38068.410.827.22.215.010.627.17.00.0LABLAB
133265Glasgow South West Zubir Ahmed68,87151.81.926.02.314.114.134.86.90.0LABSNP
141257Glasgow East John Grady68,98851.42.525.82.215.014.233.37.00.0LABSNP
162237Bathgate and Linlithgow Kirsteen Sullivan72,18558.34.127.94.818.210.427.27.30.0LABLAB
164234Edinburgh South West Scott Arthur73,78461.97.323.96.114.414.427.16.80.0LABSNP
172227Lothian East Douglas Alexander75,45663.77.627.36.018.512.720.37.60.0LABLAB
178220Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Chris Murray76,18859.83.422.64.414.116.532.36.70.0LABSNP
180218Edinburgh North and Leith Tracy Gilbert78,41163.14.122.58.214.417.626.36.80.0LABSNP
183215Glasgow South Gordon McKee70,21960.42.422.33.514.619.630.96.70.0LABSNP
183215Glasgow North Martin Rhodes67,57951.42.522.63.715.018.630.96.80.0LABSNP
201197Kilmarnock and Loudoun Lillian Jones74,62856.95.124.82.318.99.831.97.10.0LABSNP
208190Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Melanie Ward71,84556.84.925.24.320.011.527.07.20.0LABSNP
216182Glenrothes and Mid Fife Richard Baker70,65551.13.424.04.819.66.235.07.00.0LABSNP
221177Ayrshire Central Alan Gemmell69,41359.710.923.72.819.99.726.07.00.0LABSNP
225173Falkirk Euan Stainbank73,58457.95.223.23.019.911.430.37.00.0LABSNP
242157Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Torcuil Crichton21,23563.73.027.93.725.612.220.17.50.0LABLAB
243155Livingston Gregor Poynton78,04357.54.821.74.919.510.431.96.70.0LABSNP
249149Ayrshire North and Arran Irene Campbell72,17658.610.121.02.819.110.030.36.70.0LABSNP
250148Dundee Central Chris Law74,22152.32.520.06.618.17.439.06.40.0SNPSNP
251147Alloa and Grangemouth Brian Leishman70,68058.34.723.83.322.011.327.97.00.0LABSNP
254144Stirling and Strathallan Chris Kane76,28465.315.116.95.415.910.630.06.10.0LABSNP
271127Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Elaine Stewart70,34058.218.618.73.019.38.725.36.30.0LABSNP
30791Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Stephen Patrick Gethins76,14957.913.616.05.919.93.937.83.00.0SNPSNP
30890Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn77,32859.942.02.21.96.36.938.12.60.0SNPCON
32078Perth and Kinross-shire Pete Wishart77,26164.835.01.62.66.75.244.44.50.0SNPSNP
32474Dunbartonshire Mid Susan Murray73,59671.71.11.451.16.97.827.14.70.0LIBLIB
32870Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Graham Leadbitter77,07260.436.21.62.97.38.639.04.40.0SNPSNP
33365Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain69,76261.20.90.159.06.17.023.63.40.0LIBLIB
33365Angus and Perthshire Glens Dave Doogan76,66861.835.00.92.47.04.945.64.10.0SNPSNP
33365Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Campbell Bowie72,99467.142.50.74.66.86.634.94.00.0CONCON
33464Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont76,43860.945.80.82.87.08.031.64.00.0CONCON
33662Dumfries and Galloway John Cooper78,54158.330.67.53.413.98.231.15.20.0CONSNP
34652Edinburgh West Christine Anne Jardine76,49068.62.52.454.19.18.219.64.10.0LIBLIB
34850Gordon and Buchan Harriet Cross69,60563.041.30.25.87.34.137.53.70.0CONCON
34949Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Angus MacDonald77,92761.71.20.444.27.58.034.73.90.0LIBLIB
35147Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman75,92555.49.413.56.320.79.834.75.70.0SNPSNP
35345Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell71,90061.532.37.95.715.28.625.45.00.0CONCON
35543Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone74,62761.71.00.154.47.86.827.32.70.0LIBLIB
36731Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber Brendan O'Hara71,75662.516.96.816.815.85.533.74.60.0SNPSNP
38117Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,23660.41.80.355.211.512.316.32.70.0LIBLIB
3944Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Seamus Logan70,05854.534.40.35.015.34.137.33.70.0SNPSNP

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.