Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 23.5%05-58
LAB 27.1%7 29.5%20+29
LIB 6.8%4 5.9%01-13
UKIP 0.2%0 1.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 39.1%62+439
Minor 0.3%0 0.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire North and Arran (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
68508Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.114.457.22.50.70.724.50.00.0LABLAB
99477Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.09.544.41.70.50.543.50.00.0LABLAB
113463Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.311.944.51.70.60.640.70.00.0LABLAB
132444Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.211.442.31.61.90.642.20.00.0SNPLAB
137438Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.910.240.12.50.50.546.20.00.0SNPSNP
148428Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.613.841.01.42.20.840.90.00.0SNPLAB
149426Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.212.639.61.90.60.644.60.00.0SNPSNP
151424Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.612.138.61.41.61.544.80.00.0SNPSNP
154422Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.514.340.23.61.80.839.30.00.0LABLAB
156419Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.110.836.22.90.610.339.20.00.0SNPSNP
157418Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.514.940.01.92.00.740.50.00.0SNPSNP
157418Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.913.238.03.00.70.744.40.00.0SNPSNP
157418Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.414.038.82.80.70.743.10.00.0SNPSNP
164411Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.416.139.82.10.70.740.50.00.0SNPSNP
164411Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.711.835.42.60.80.748.70.00.0SNPSNP
165410Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.014.337.72.71.01.043.40.00.0SNPSNP
165410Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.013.636.93.60.70.744.50.00.0SNPSNP
166409Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.914.337.02.50.70.744.80.00.0SNPSNP
166409Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.913.436.02.42.10.745.50.00.0SNPSNP
176399Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.217.839.31.80.70.739.60.00.0SNPSNP
178398Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.517.939.12.11.90.738.30.00.0LABLAB
189387Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.320.138.73.20.80.736.50.00.0LABLAB
194381Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.419.336.45.00.80.837.70.00.0SNPSNP
198377Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.719.035.02.40.70.742.10.00.0SNPSNP
200375Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.217.333.03.91.00.943.90.00.0SNPSNP
206370East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.624.238.72.60.80.832.80.00.0LABLAB
207368East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.320.034.02.51.90.740.90.00.0SNPSNP
219356Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.122.234.22.70.80.739.50.00.0SNPSNP
219356Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.221.833.63.90.83.836.10.00.0SNPSNP
222353Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.420.832.01.82.12.440.90.00.0SNPSNP
230345Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.421.331.11.80.70.744.30.00.0SNPSNP
230345Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.123.733.52.90.80.738.40.00.0SNPSNP
238337Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.16.414.045.62.00.831.20.00.0LIBLIB
238337Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.326.734.12.01.80.734.60.00.0SNPSNP
241334Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.110.717.337.60.90.932.70.00.0LIBLIB
242333Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.222.028.43.20.80.744.90.00.0SNPSNP
249326Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.825.929.82.00.70.740.90.00.0SNPSNP
265310Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.816.518.331.31.11.131.60.00.0LIBSNP
270305Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.428.029.13.70.80.837.70.00.0SNPSNP
282293Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.329.028.42.00.70.739.20.00.0SNPSNP
290285Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.917.315.732.81.11.032.10.00.0LIBLIB
300275Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.719.516.217.91.31.343.80.00.0SNPSNP
310265Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.318.813.229.81.11.136.00.00.0SNPSNP
310265Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.725.219.510.41.11.042.80.00.0SNPSNP
311265Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.734.628.91.80.70.733.20.00.0CONCON
316259Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.331.724.72.90.80.839.00.00.0CONSNP
323252Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.934.826.11.60.70.736.10.00.0CONSNP
334241Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.527.915.815.41.01.038.80.00.0SNPSNP
342234Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.536.823.05.00.80.833.60.00.0CONCON
342233Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.636.122.32.70.80.737.30.00.0CONSNP
346230Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.537.923.62.00.90.834.70.00.0CONCON
384191Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.435.414.69.90.90.938.30.00.0CONSNP
409166Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.836.912.84.30.80.844.40.00.0SNPSNP
411164Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.039.815.32.80.80.740.60.00.0CONSNP
415161Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.444.018.93.40.80.732.20.00.0CONCON
454122Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.242.513.77.30.90.834.80.00.0CONCON
455121Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.442.213.41.90.80.841.00.00.0CONCON
469107Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.642.611.83.00.80.741.20.00.0CONCON
53442Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.548.511.04.00.80.834.90.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.