Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	25.1%	6	15.5%	0	2	-2	4
LAB	18.6%	1	33.5%	21	0	+21	22
LIB	9.5%	4	7.0%	1	0	+1	5
Reform	0.5%	0	2.0%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.0%	0	2.0%	0	0	+0	0
SNP	45.0%	48	36.0%	2	22	-20	28
Other	0.3%	0	4.0%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Banff and Buchan, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	SNP %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
61	505	Edinburgh South	Ian Murray	66,188	75.1	7.9	62.1	4.9	2.2	2.6	16.5	3.7	LAB	LAB
84	482	Glasgow North East	Anne McLaughlin	61,075	55.5	2.1	51.8	2.1	1.6	1.3	37.9	3.2	SNP	LAB
90	476	Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Margaret Ferrier	80,918	66.5	5.6	53.9	3.1	2.2	1.1	29.8	4.4	SNP	LAB
105	461	Glasgow South West	Chris Stephens	64,575	57.1	3.0	48.7	2.5	1.7	1.5	38.9	3.6	SNP	LAB
123	443	Glasgow Central	Alison Thewliss	69,230	57.9	2.1	46.1	3.1	2.3	2.8	40.3	3.4	SNP	LAB
124	442	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Steven Bonnar	72,943	66.1	4.3	48.3	2.1	1.9	2.0	38.1	3.3	SNP	LAB
129	437	Glasgow North	Patrick Grady	57,130	63.3	2.7	46.0	4.3	2.4	3.0	38.0	3.8	SNP	LAB
154	412	Glasgow East	David Linden	67,381	57.1	6.0	46.1	2.7	1.6	1.4	38.7	3.3	SNP	LAB
169	397	Glasgow South	Stewart McDonald	70,891	66.9	4.9	43.6	3.8	2.2	2.6	39.2	3.7	SNP	LAB
176	390	Motherwell and Wishaw	Marion Fellows	68,856	64.5	7.2	45.2	2.4	1.6	1.4	37.5	4.7	SNP	LAB
180	386	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Neale Hanvey	72,853	64.5	11.4	48.7	4.0	2.4	3.1	26.3	4.2	SNP	LAB
187	379	Inverclyde	Ronnie Cowan	60,622	65.8	6.9	43.0	4.1	1.7	1.4	39.4	3.5	SNP	LAB
188	378	Dunbartonshire West	Martin Docherty	66,517	67.9	5.8	41.7	2.7	2.0	2.2	40.7	5.0	SNP	LAB
190	376	Glasgow North West	Carol Monaghan	63,402	62.7	6.4	42.0	4.4	1.7	1.4	40.6	3.5	SNP	LAB
190	375	Dundee West	Chris Law	64,431	64.5	3.9	39.5	3.8	1.8	1.6	44.8	4.5	SNP	SNP
191	375	Edinburgh East	Tommy Sheppard	69,424	68.9	5.6	41.0	4.4	2.5	3.2	39.5	3.7	SNP	LAB
223	343	Midlothian	Owen Thompson	70,544	68.4	12.3	43.7	4.5	1.7	1.5	32.6	3.6	SNP	LAB
224	342	Airdrie and Shotts	Neil Gray	64,011	62.1	11.2	42.4	1.6	1.6	1.0	39.7	2.4	SNP	LAB
228	337	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	Stuart McDonald	66,079	69.1	7.3	38.0	4.2	1.7	1.4	43.9	3.5	SNP	SNP
228	337	Glenrothes	Peter Grant	65,672	63.3	7.8	38.4	4.1	1.8	1.7	42.2	4.0	SNP	SNP
229	336	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Mhairi Black	64,385	66.9	8.6	39.1	4.4	1.7	1.5	41.3	3.5	SNP	SNP
236	330	Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)	Angus MacNeil	21,106	68.6	12.8	41.7	2.8	1.7	1.4	36.2	3.5	SNP	LAB
245	321	Edinburgh North and Leith	Deidre Brock	81,336	73.0	10.0	37.9	7.5	2.5	3.0	34.7	4.3	SNP	LAB
255	311	East Lothian	Kenny MacAskill	81,600	71.7	16.7	43.8	4.5	1.7	1.5	27.2	4.5	SNP	LAB
257	309	Dunfermline and West Fife	Douglas Chapman	76,652	69.8	12.0	39.0	5.1	2.2	2.5	35.4	3.8	SNP	LAB
273	292	East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Lisa Cameron	81,224	69.4	12.2	37.0	4.3	2.1	2.3	37.4	4.7	SNP	SNP
281	284	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Gavin Newlands	72,007	69.0	13.1	37.2	4.7	1.7	1.5	38.0	3.7	SNP	SNP
291	274	Livingston	Hannah Bardell	82,285	66.3	13.2	36.2	4.1	2.2	2.6	38.0	3.7	SNP	SNP
304	261	Orkney and Shetland	Alistair Carmichael	34,211	67.7	1.9	23.3	41.1	1.9	1.8	25.0	5.0	LIB	LIB
317	248	Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Martyn Day	87,044	66.4	15.4	34.4	4.9	2.2	2.6	35.3	5.2	SNP	SNP
320	245	Aberdeen North	Kirsty Blackman	62,489	59.9	11.3	29.6	4.9	2.3	2.7	45.0	4.2	SNP	SNP
321	244	Dunbartonshire East	Amy Callaghan	66,075	80.3	5.7	23.7	33.1	2.1	2.2	28.1	5.0	SNP	LIB
321	244	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Alan Brown	74,517	63.9	14.6	32.6	3.3	1.7	1.5	41.9	4.4	SNP	SNP
335	230	Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	Jamie Stone	46,930	67.0	7.8	23.0	33.5	2.0	1.8	27.6	4.4	LIB	LIB
335	230	Edinburgh South West	Joanna Cherry	73,501	70.9	15.4	30.4	6.1	2.3	2.7	38.7	4.4	SNP	SNP
340	225	Edinburgh West	Christine Jardine	72,507	75.2	8.4	23.0	36.2	2.2	2.3	24.0	3.8	LIB	LIB
345	220	Fife North East	Wendy Chamberlain	60,905	75.3	4.5	17.9	39.3	1.8	1.5	31.2	3.7	LIB	LIB
345	220	Ross Skye and Lochaber	Ian Blackford	54,230	73.5	8.5	21.8	20.9	1.9	1.7	39.4	5.9	SNP	SNP
346	219	Dundee East	Stewart Hosie	66,210	68.4	14.7	27.7	5.1	1.8	1.5	44.8	4.4	SNP	SNP
350	216	Lanark and Hamilton East	Angela Crawley	77,659	68.3	21.8	34.6	3.7	1.7	1.5	33.0	3.7	SNP	LAB
370	195	Falkirk	Johnny McNally	84,472	66.1	16.5	26.2	4.6	2.4	2.9	43.6	3.9	SNP	SNP
379	186	Ayrshire North and Arran	Patricia Gibson	73,534	65.5	20.9	28.4	2.8	2.1	2.5	39.6	3.7	SNP	SNP
398	167	Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey	Drew Hendry	78,059	70.2	19.4	24.7	7.1	2.5	3.1	38.9	4.4	SNP	SNP
410	155	Ayrshire Central	Philippa Whitford	69,742	66.7	24.2	28.5	3.2	1.7	1.5	37.2	3.7	SNP	SNP
427	138	Renfrewshire East	Kirsten Oswald	72,232	76.6	24.6	27.3	4.8	1.8	1.6	36.0	3.9	SNP	SNP
449	116	Ayr Carrick and Cumnock	Allan Dorans	71,970	64.7	27.6	27.8	3.0	1.7	1.6	34.6	3.7	SNP	SNP
455	110	Stirling	Alyn Smith	68,473	76.8	23.3	22.9	3.5	2.1	2.3	42.2	3.8	SNP	SNP
463	102	Aberdeen South	Stephen Flynn	65,719	69.4	25.3	24.0	7.4	1.9	1.7	35.7	4.0	SNP	SNP
470	95	Argyll and Bute	Brendan O'Hara	66,525	72.2	24.7	22.4	10.5	1.9	1.7	34.8	4.0	SNP	SNP
500	65	Ochil and South Perthshire	John Nicolson	78,776	73.4	27.8	23.3	3.6	1.8	1.6	37.5	4.5	SNP	SNP
506	59	Perth and North Perthshire	Pete Wishart	72,600	74.5	26.0	20.3	4.5	1.8	1.7	41.6	4.1	SNP	SNP
522	44	Dumfries and Galloway	Alister Jack	74,580	69.0	32.7	24.4	3.9	1.8	1.6	31.6	3.9	CON	CON
532	33	Gordon	Richard Thomson	79,629	70.2	30.2	21.4	7.0	1.9	1.7	33.8	4.1	SNP	SNP
540	25	Angus	Dave Doogan	63,952	67.5	29.3	19.6	3.7	1.8	1.6	40.2	3.8	SNP	SNP
543	23	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	David Mundell	68,330	71.9	34.4	24.1	4.6	1.8	1.7	29.4	4.0	CON	CON
545	20	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Andrew Bowie	72,640	73.4	31.5	20.6	8.1	1.9	1.7	32.1	4.1	CON	SNP
554	11	Moray	Douglas Ross	71,035	68.7	33.7	19.9	3.0	1.8	1.6	35.3	4.7	CON	SNP
561	5	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	John Lamont	74,518	71.3	36.7	20.7	5.2	1.8	1.7	29.8	4.1	CON	CON
564	2	Banff and Buchan	David Duguid	66,655	63.4	38.2	19.5	3.5	1.8	1.7	31.4	4.0	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.