Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 25.2%04-49
LAB 27.1%7 26.8%04-43
LIB 6.8%4 6.0%02-22
UKIP 0.2%0 0.7%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.2%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 40.0%100+1045
Minor 0.3%0 0.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ross Skye and Lochaber (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
93478Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.116.354.
134436Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.010.742.
147424Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.313.442.
153417Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.212.940.
155415Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.911.538.
173397Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.
176394Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.615.538.
179391Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.
181389Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.516.
183387Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.914.935.
183387Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.516.737.
184386Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.415.836.
187383Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.613.633.
188382Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.713.332.
188382Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.418.
188382Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.015.334.
191379Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.915.
191379Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.916.
192378Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.
197373Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.219.736.
198372Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.519.836.
212358Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.321.936.
220350Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.421.
224346Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.720.932.
228342Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.
232339East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.626.
232338East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.321.831.
240330Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.
241329Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.223.730.
242328Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.422.729.
248322Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.423.
249321Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.125.630.
258312Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.17.211.345.
266304Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.328.631.
271299Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.112.014.337.
275295Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.223.925.
289281Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.827.727.
304266Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.429.926.
304266Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.818.414.731.40.71.433.30.00.1LIBSNP
310260Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.330.925.
317253Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.919.
326244Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.721.412.
328243Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.736.526.
332238Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.727.015.910.50.61.344.00.00.6SNPSNP
332238Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.320.69.529.90.71.437.60.00.3SNPSNP
335235Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.333.621.
342228Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.936.623.
370200Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.529.712.415.50.71.340.40.00.0SNPSNP
375195Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.638.
377194Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.538.620.
383188Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.539.820.
434136Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.437.
455115Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.838.810.
461110Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.041.712.
470101Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.445.916.
50665Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.444.
50863Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.244.410.
52843Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.644.
55912Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.550.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.