Scotland: Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 12.7%5 10.6%01-14
LAB 35.3%37 16.5%035-352
LIB 9.7%6 9.7%00+06
Reform 7.0%0 22.3%10+11
Green 3.8%0 6.3%00+00
SNP 30.0%9 30.6%350+3544
Other 1.5%0 3.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Edinburgh South' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aberdeen North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aberdeenshire North and Moray East (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Glasgow South West (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
85348Edinburgh South Ian Murray70,83966.16.128.66.024.512.217.33.61.7LABLAB
89344Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Torcuil Crichton21,23563.75.326.05.022.54.221.83.112.0LABLAB
93339Coatbridge and Bellshill Frank McNally72,66753.33.426.22.923.55.834.13.01.2LABSNP
97335Glasgow West Patricia Ferguson69,02857.83.624.13.821.911.631.13.00.9LABSNP
97335Rutherglen Michael Shanks72,67458.54.826.74.924.63.230.63.32.0LABSNP
98334Dunbartonshire West Douglas McAllister69,07457.33.425.53.023.66.334.23.00.9LABSNP
99333Airdrie and Shotts Kenneth Stevenson70,19952.24.227.33.325.73.031.63.11.7LABSNP
99333Glasgow South Gordon McKee70,21960.43.620.83.919.215.832.52.81.4LABSNP
100332Glasgow North East Maureen Burke72,61047.03.623.63.122.410.132.92.81.6LABSNP
101331Glasgow North Martin Rhodes67,57951.43.621.14.020.114.832.62.81.2LABSNP
106326Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Martin McCluskey70,12457.55.324.34.123.95.931.83.21.6LABSNP
106326Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Pamela Nash71,77754.44.525.73.025.45.631.63.20.9LABSNP
106326Paisley and Renfrewshire South Johanna Baxter71,57457.74.224.63.824.36.732.33.11.0LABSNP
106326Glasgow South West Zubir Ahmed68,87151.83.522.03.521.810.235.02.81.1LABSNP
107325East Kilbride and Strathaven Joani Reid76,41561.15.325.43.225.46.529.93.21.1LABSNP
108324Edinburgh North and Leith Tracy Gilbert78,41163.14.921.07.121.113.628.03.11.2LABSNP
109323Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Chris Murray76,18859.84.320.54.520.712.733.72.90.9LABSNP
109323Glasgow East John Grady68,98851.43.922.23.322.610.233.82.91.1LABSNP
110322Renfrewshire East Blair McDougall73,38068.413.622.13.522.65.927.63.21.6LABSNP
111322Lothian East Douglas Alexander75,45663.78.025.65.526.27.922.23.51.1LABReform
112320Midlothian Kirsty McNeill73,91659.85.125.45.626.32.530.93.30.9LABSNP
112320Paisley and Renfrewshire North Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor71,10358.44.524.43.725.35.932.53.10.6LABSNP
112320Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Katrina Murray70,35058.23.623.13.624.16.435.73.00.6LABSNP
115317Hamilton and Clyde Valley Imogen Walker75,48055.87.226.34.027.62.528.23.50.8LABSNP
118314Dunfermline and Dollar Graeme Downie72,82461.25.323.46.724.97.427.93.31.2LABSNP
127305Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Melanie Ward71,84556.85.823.54.725.66.928.63.21.8LABSNP
131301Bathgate and Linlithgow Kirsteen Sullivan72,18558.35.324.35.326.76.027.93.31.2LABSNP
132300Edinburgh South West Scott Arthur73,78461.98.620.26.222.710.127.93.21.0LABSNP
133299Dundee Central Chris Law74,22152.34.318.56.721.13.440.62.72.6SNPSNP
133299Kilmarnock and Loudoun Lillian Jones74,62856.95.622.92.925.65.533.53.11.0LABSNP
135297Falkirk Euan Stainbank73,58457.96.021.73.725.06.932.03.11.7LABSNP
137295Glenrothes and Mid Fife Richard Baker70,65551.14.022.54.526.52.336.73.00.6LABSNP
137295Ayrshire Central Alan Gemmell69,41359.711.322.13.326.15.127.83.21.1LABSNP
138294Alloa and Grangemouth Brian Leishman70,68058.35.922.24.126.36.729.63.12.2LABSNP
154278Livingston Gregor Poynton78,04357.55.019.04.526.16.434.93.01.0LABSNP
158274Ayrshire North and Arran Irene Campbell72,17658.69.818.23.125.85.733.43.01.0LABSNP
164268Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain69,76261.21.10.157.88.25.425.41.70.3LIBLIB
169263Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Campbell Bowie72,99467.143.10.63.99.14.036.32.30.6CONCON
170262Dunbartonshire Mid Susan Murray73,59671.72.02.747.811.35.427.72.20.8LIBLIB
170262Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone74,62761.71.20.053.28.85.428.91.50.9LIBLIB
185247Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Angus MacDonald77,92761.71.40.443.210.06.036.62.00.5LIBLIB
190242Perth and Kinross-shire Pete Wishart77,26164.830.73.44.613.92.241.92.41.0SNPSNP
191241Angus and Perthshire Glens Dave Doogan76,66861.832.21.73.612.42.144.72.21.0SNPSNP
197235Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Elaine Stewart70,34058.217.115.43.226.74.729.12.91.0LABSNP
197235Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont76,43860.942.71.44.112.75.330.72.20.9CONCON
199233Edinburgh West Christine Anne Jardine76,49068.64.03.449.114.96.019.82.10.8LIBLIB
200232Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn77,32859.920.89.46.020.95.933.42.61.0SNPSNP
205227Gordon and Buchan Harriet Cross69,60563.038.00.47.912.61.736.82.20.4CONCON
210222Dumfries and Galloway John Cooper78,54158.325.810.04.623.35.028.02.60.7CONSNP
212220Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Graham Leadbitter77,07260.428.44.36.118.05.734.22.40.8SNPSNP
213219Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,23660.42.30.253.014.011.317.51.40.3LIBLIB
219213Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell71,90061.530.18.35.822.25.624.82.50.7CONCON
226206Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber Brendan O'Hara71,75662.517.35.915.020.32.535.22.51.3SNPSNP
231201Stirling and Strathallan Chris Kane76,28465.311.511.54.026.16.936.42.90.5LABSNP
35379Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Seamus Logan70,05854.528.60.46.125.21.735.62.00.4SNPSNP
36666Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Stephen Patrick Gethins76,14957.95.26.03.132.02.746.82.91.4SNPSNP
38646Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman75,92555.43.74.03.232.15.946.52.81.7SNPSNP

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.