| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 12.7% | 5 | 10.6% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 37 | 16.5% | 0 | 35 | -35 | 2 |
| LIB | 9.7% | 6 | 9.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 6 |
| Reform | 7.0% | 0 | 22.3% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| Green | 3.8% | 0 | 6.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 30.0% | 9 | 30.6% | 35 | 0 | +35 | 44 |
| Other | 1.5% | 0 | 3.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Edinburgh South' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aberdeen North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aberdeenshire North and Moray East (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Glasgow South West (prediction: SNP).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 348 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 70,839 | 66.1 | 6.1 | 28.6 | 6.0 | 24.5 | 12.2 | 17.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 89 | 344 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Torcuil Crichton | 21,235 | 63.7 | 5.3 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 22.5 | 4.2 | 21.8 | 3.1 | 12.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 93 | 339 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Frank McNally | 72,667 | 53.3 | 3.4 | 26.2 | 2.9 | 23.5 | 5.8 | 34.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 97 | 335 | Glasgow West | Patricia Ferguson | 69,028 | 57.8 | 3.6 | 24.1 | 3.8 | 21.9 | 11.6 | 31.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 97 | 335 | Rutherglen | Michael Shanks | 72,674 | 58.5 | 4.8 | 26.7 | 4.9 | 24.6 | 3.2 | 30.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 98 | 334 | Dunbartonshire West | Douglas McAllister | 69,074 | 57.3 | 3.4 | 25.5 | 3.0 | 23.6 | 6.3 | 34.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 99 | 333 | Airdrie and Shotts | Kenneth Stevenson | 70,199 | 52.2 | 4.2 | 27.3 | 3.3 | 25.7 | 3.0 | 31.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 99 | 333 | Glasgow South | Gordon McKee | 70,219 | 60.4 | 3.6 | 20.8 | 3.9 | 19.2 | 15.8 | 32.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 100 | 332 | Glasgow North East | Maureen Burke | 72,610 | 47.0 | 3.6 | 23.6 | 3.1 | 22.4 | 10.1 | 32.9 | 2.8 | 1.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 101 | 331 | Glasgow North | Martin Rhodes | 67,579 | 51.4 | 3.6 | 21.1 | 4.0 | 20.1 | 14.8 | 32.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 106 | 326 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Martin McCluskey | 70,124 | 57.5 | 5.3 | 24.3 | 4.1 | 23.9 | 5.9 | 31.8 | 3.2 | 1.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 106 | 326 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Pamela Nash | 71,777 | 54.4 | 4.5 | 25.7 | 3.0 | 25.4 | 5.6 | 31.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 106 | 326 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Johanna Baxter | 71,574 | 57.7 | 4.2 | 24.6 | 3.8 | 24.3 | 6.7 | 32.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 106 | 326 | Glasgow South West | Zubir Ahmed | 68,871 | 51.8 | 3.5 | 22.0 | 3.5 | 21.8 | 10.2 | 35.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 107 | 325 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Joani Reid | 76,415 | 61.1 | 5.3 | 25.4 | 3.2 | 25.4 | 6.5 | 29.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 108 | 324 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Tracy Gilbert | 78,411 | 63.1 | 4.9 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 21.1 | 13.6 | 28.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 109 | 323 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Chris Murray | 76,188 | 59.8 | 4.3 | 20.5 | 4.5 | 20.7 | 12.7 | 33.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 109 | 323 | Glasgow East | John Grady | 68,988 | 51.4 | 3.9 | 22.2 | 3.3 | 22.6 | 10.2 | 33.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 110 | 322 | Renfrewshire East | Blair McDougall | 73,380 | 68.4 | 13.6 | 22.1 | 3.5 | 22.6 | 5.9 | 27.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 111 | 322 | Lothian East | Douglas Alexander | 75,456 | 63.7 | 8.0 | 25.6 | 5.5 | 26.2 | 7.9 | 22.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 112 | 320 | Midlothian | Kirsty McNeill | 73,916 | 59.8 | 5.1 | 25.4 | 5.6 | 26.3 | 2.5 | 30.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 112 | 320 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor | 71,103 | 58.4 | 4.5 | 24.4 | 3.7 | 25.3 | 5.9 | 32.5 | 3.1 | 0.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 112 | 320 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Katrina Murray | 70,350 | 58.2 | 3.6 | 23.1 | 3.6 | 24.1 | 6.4 | 35.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 115 | 317 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Imogen Walker | 75,480 | 55.8 | 7.2 | 26.3 | 4.0 | 27.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 118 | 314 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Graeme Downie | 72,824 | 61.2 | 5.3 | 23.4 | 6.7 | 24.9 | 7.4 | 27.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 127 | 305 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Melanie Ward | 71,845 | 56.8 | 5.8 | 23.5 | 4.7 | 25.6 | 6.9 | 28.6 | 3.2 | 1.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 131 | 301 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Kirsteen Sullivan | 72,185 | 58.3 | 5.3 | 24.3 | 5.3 | 26.7 | 6.0 | 27.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 132 | 300 | Edinburgh South West | Scott Arthur | 73,784 | 61.9 | 8.6 | 20.2 | 6.2 | 22.7 | 10.1 | 27.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 133 | 299 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,221 | 52.3 | 4.3 | 18.5 | 6.7 | 21.1 | 3.4 | 40.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | SNP | SNP |
| 133 | 299 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Lillian Jones | 74,628 | 56.9 | 5.6 | 22.9 | 2.9 | 25.6 | 5.5 | 33.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 135 | 297 | Falkirk | Euan Stainbank | 73,584 | 57.9 | 6.0 | 21.7 | 3.7 | 25.0 | 6.9 | 32.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 137 | 295 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Richard Baker | 70,655 | 51.1 | 4.0 | 22.5 | 4.5 | 26.5 | 2.3 | 36.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 137 | 295 | Ayrshire Central | Alan Gemmell | 69,413 | 59.7 | 11.3 | 22.1 | 3.3 | 26.1 | 5.1 | 27.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 138 | 294 | Alloa and Grangemouth | Brian Leishman | 70,680 | 58.3 | 5.9 | 22.2 | 4.1 | 26.3 | 6.7 | 29.6 | 3.1 | 2.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 154 | 278 | Livingston | Gregor Poynton | 78,043 | 57.5 | 5.0 | 19.0 | 4.5 | 26.1 | 6.4 | 34.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 158 | 274 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Irene Campbell | 72,176 | 58.6 | 9.8 | 18.2 | 3.1 | 25.8 | 5.7 | 33.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 164 | 268 | Fife North East | Wendy Chamberlain | 69,762 | 61.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 57.8 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 25.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 169 | 263 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Campbell Bowie | 72,994 | 67.1 | 43.1 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 36.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | CON | CON |
| 170 | 262 | Dunbartonshire Mid | Susan Murray | 73,596 | 71.7 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 47.8 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 27.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 170 | 262 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Jamie Stone | 74,627 | 61.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 53.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 28.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 185 | 247 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Angus MacDonald | 77,927 | 61.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 43.2 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 36.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 190 | 242 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 77,261 | 64.8 | 30.7 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 13.9 | 2.2 | 41.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 191 | 241 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 76,668 | 61.8 | 32.2 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 12.4 | 2.1 | 44.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 197 | 235 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Elaine Stewart | 70,340 | 58.2 | 17.1 | 15.4 | 3.2 | 26.7 | 4.7 | 29.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 197 | 235 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 76,438 | 60.9 | 42.7 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 30.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | CON | CON |
| 199 | 233 | Edinburgh West | Christine Anne Jardine | 76,490 | 68.6 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 49.1 | 14.9 | 6.0 | 19.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 200 | 232 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 77,328 | 59.9 | 20.8 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 20.9 | 5.9 | 33.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 205 | 227 | Gordon and Buchan | Harriet Cross | 69,605 | 63.0 | 38.0 | 0.4 | 7.9 | 12.6 | 1.7 | 36.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | CON | CON |
| 210 | 222 | Dumfries and Galloway | John Cooper | 78,541 | 58.3 | 25.8 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 23.3 | 5.0 | 28.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | CON | SNP |
| 212 | 220 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Graham Leadbitter | 77,072 | 60.4 | 28.4 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 18.0 | 5.7 | 34.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | SNP | SNP |
| 213 | 219 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,236 | 60.4 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 53.0 | 14.0 | 11.3 | 17.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 219 | 213 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 71,900 | 61.5 | 30.1 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 22.2 | 5.6 | 24.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | CON | CON |
| 226 | 206 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 71,756 | 62.5 | 17.3 | 5.9 | 15.0 | 20.3 | 2.5 | 35.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 231 | 201 | Stirling and Strathallan | Chris Kane | 76,284 | 65.3 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 26.1 | 6.9 | 36.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 353 | 79 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Seamus Logan | 70,058 | 54.5 | 28.6 | 0.4 | 6.1 | 25.2 | 1.7 | 35.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | SNP | SNP |
| 366 | 66 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stephen Patrick Gethins | 76,149 | 57.9 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 32.0 | 2.7 | 46.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | SNP | SNP |
| 386 | 46 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 75,925 | 55.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 32.1 | 5.9 | 46.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | SNP | SNP |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.