Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 26.7%01-112
LAB 27.1%7 25.3%04-43
LIB 6.8%4 6.3%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.3%00+00
Green 0.2%0 2.7%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 38.4%50+540
Minor 0.3%0 0.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Renfrewshire East (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Linlithgow and East Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
93481Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.117.753.
130443Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.011.641.
145429Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.314.640.
150423Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.
152421Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.912.536.
172401Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.215.535.
173400Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.616.936.
174399Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.113.332.
180393Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.517.635.
181392Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.916.
182391Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.518.
182391Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.417.
184389Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.614.831.
185388Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.714.531.
187386Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.419.535.
188385Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.016.732.
188385Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.916.431.
190383Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.917.532.
191382Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.017.532.
195378Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.
197376Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.521.334.
210363Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.323.434.
218355Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.422.731.
223350Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.722.430.
227346Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.220.728.
231343East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.627.634.
231342East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.323.329.
239334Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.125.529.
240333Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.
241332Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.424.
243330Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.17.810.347.
246327Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.424.626.
247326Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.
261312Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.
264309Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.330.
270303Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.225.324.
288285Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.829.
303270Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.819.913.532.
303270Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.431.324.
309264Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.332.424.
312261Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.920.611.
324249Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.722.811.
328246Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.738.
328245Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.322.18.731.30.22.734.50.00.6SNPSNP
330243Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.728.514.611.30.22.741.50.01.2SNPSNP
333240Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.335.
342232Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.938.
366207Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.531.211.316.80.22.837.70.00.1SNPSNP
374200Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.639.518.
375199Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.540.
381193Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.541.318.
426148Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.438.710.710.70.12.437.30.00.1CONCON
450123Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.840.
454120Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.
468106Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.447.414.
50470Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.445.
50668Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.245.810.
52054Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.645.
55915Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.551.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.