Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 23.5%05-58
LAB 27.1%7 29.5%20+29
LIB 6.8%4 5.9%01-13
UKIP 0.2%0 1.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 39.1%62+439
Minor 0.3%0 0.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire North and Arran (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
68508Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.114.457.
99477Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.09.544.
113463Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.311.944.
132444Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.211.442.
137438Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.910.
148428Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.613.841.
149426Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.212.639.
151424Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.612.
154422Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.514.340.
156419Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.110.836.22.90.610.339.20.00.0SNPSNP
157418Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.514.940.
157418Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.913.
157418Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.414.
164411Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.416.
164411Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.711.835.
165410Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.014.337.
165410Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.013.636.
166409Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.914.337.
166409Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.913.436.
176399Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.217.839.
178398Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.517.939.
189387Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.320.
194381Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.419.336.
198377Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.719.
200375Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.217.333.
206370East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.624.
207368East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.320.
219356Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.
219356Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.221.833.
222353Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.420.832.
230345Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.421.331.
230345Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.123.733.
238337Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.16.414.
238337Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.326.734.
241334Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.110.717.337.60.90.932.70.00.0LIBLIB
242333Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.
249326Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.825.929.
265310Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.816.518.331.
270305Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.428.
282293Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.329.
290285Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.917.315.732.
300275Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.719.516.
310265Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.318.813.
310265Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.725.219.510.
311265Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.734.628.
316259Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.331.724.
323252Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.934.826.
334241Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.527.915.815.
342234Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.536.823.
342233Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.636.
346230Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.537.923.
384191Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.435.414.
409166Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.836.912.
411164Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.039.815.
415161Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.444.
454122Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.242.513.
455121Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.442.
469107Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.642.611.
53442Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.548.511.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.