South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 50.8%04-469
LAB 28.6%8 29.0%40+412
LIB 10.5%2 10.5%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 4.6%00+00
Green 3.1%1 3.6%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 1.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
57514Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.818.
101470Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.627.864.
106465Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.227.963.
149422Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.830.459.
167404Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.534.558.
224346Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.415.627.20.03.452.
228343Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.138.549.
240331Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.933.841.417.
255316Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.741.
259312Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.242.846.
262309Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.943.
277294Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.743.845.
281290Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.543.744.
293278Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.546.846.
295276Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.545.
311260Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.345.
323248Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.446.338.
324247Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.748.640.
325246Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.847.
342229Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.349.
350221Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.050.636.
354217Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.251.936.
357214Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.851.736.
362209Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.450.534.
368203Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.
374197Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.151.633.
375196Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.552.534.
382189Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.753.334.
385186Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.251.332.
390181Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.153.833.
396175Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.251.330.
405166Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.
408163Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.053.530.
412159Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.550.427.
422149Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.347.523.43.74.917.
424147Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.655.
429142Ashford Damian Green87,39668.555.330.
431140Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.956.430.
434136Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.738.713.
439132Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.550.424.
442129Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.
444127Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.546.720.425.
448123Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.752.925.515.
451120Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.653.225.412.
458113Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.153.725.
47398Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.755.
47596Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.652.622.516.
47794Havant Alan Mak72,46463.956.
47893Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.155.925.412.
48190Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.
48388Witney Robert Courts82,72773.651.821.
48685Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.957.
48784Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.557.426.
49675Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.650.819.423.
49971Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.940.48.546.
50566Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.758.
51061Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.556.422.811.
51160Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.759.325.
51358Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.955.822.
51457Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.753.419.621.
51754Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.445.811.639.
52150Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.258.323.
52447Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.954.920.
52546Henley John Howell74,98776.155.420.414.
52744Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.357.522.510.
52942Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.658.623.
53338Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.356.921.
53536Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.255.919.610.
53833Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.759.922.
53932Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.848.310.934.
54031Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.360.723.310.
54724Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.
54922New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.858.920.
55120Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.860.521.410.
55219Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.452.
55417Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.361.521.
55714Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.461.019.711.
56110Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.759.917.415.
5638New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.
5647Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.457.714.521.
5656Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.062.018.710.
5665Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.158.114.319.
5674Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.461.817.712.
5701Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.