| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 30.6% | 30 | 25.3% | 13 | 2 | +11 | 41 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 36 | 20.8% | 0 | 16 | -16 | 20 |
| LIB | 21.9% | 24 | 16.4% | 1 | 6 | -5 | 19 |
| Reform | 14.0% | 0 | 21.9% | 10 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| Green | 6.9% | 1 | 9.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 2.1% | 0 | 6.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Oxford East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Isle of Wight East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Maidstone and Malling (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Reading Central (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 378 | Oxford East | Anneliese Dodds | 71,845 | 54.8 | 9.5 | 42.5 | 6.5 | 14.6 | 20.7 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 36 | 373 | Hove and Portslade | Peter Kyle | 74,063 | 70.1 | 11.1 | 42.3 | 4.1 | 15.6 | 19.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 67 | 341 | Brighton Pavilion | Siân Berry | 74,786 | 70.0 | 7.2 | 30.1 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 46.5 | 4.9 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 73 | 336 | Reading Central | Matt Rodda | 73,600 | 61.5 | 14.8 | 37.2 | 5.8 | 15.1 | 21.1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 84 | 325 | Portsmouth South | Stephen Morgan | 73,711 | 52.8 | 8.0 | 45.4 | 5.6 | 24.9 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 109 | 300 | Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | Chris Ward | 68,784 | 59.2 | 15.0 | 34.4 | 4.4 | 17.5 | 22.2 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 134 | 275 | Canterbury | Rosie Duffield | 71,171 | 66.4 | 18.6 | 34.5 | 6.3 | 20.1 | 14.2 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 139 | 270 | Southampton Test | Satvir Kaur | 65,520 | 54.6 | 9.8 | 40.3 | 3.3 | 26.1 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 142 | 267 | Slough | Tan Dhesi | 81,512 | 53.1 | 13.0 | 33.9 | 4.8 | 19.8 | 11.8 | 16.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 167 | 242 | Milton Keynes Central | Emily Darlington | 81,078 | 58.9 | 21.0 | 31.6 | 9.7 | 19.8 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 173 | 236 | Hastings and Rye | Helena Dollimore | 75,939 | 60.6 | 14.4 | 36.4 | 3.8 | 24.9 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 181 | 227 | Earley and Woodley | Yuan Yang | 73,548 | 62.4 | 27.6 | 27.6 | 9.7 | 16.8 | 13.3 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 195 | 214 | Worthing East and Shoreham | Tom Rutland | 74,738 | 65.7 | 19.8 | 33.6 | 4.9 | 24.1 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 213 | 196 | Milton Keynes North | Chris Curtis | 70,709 | 65.0 | 23.7 | 30.0 | 7.7 | 21.9 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 223 | 186 | Basingstoke | Luke Murphy | 78,487 | 62.4 | 23.7 | 29.1 | 8.0 | 21.8 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 224 | 185 | Wycombe | Emma Reynolds | 73,846 | 60.4 | 20.1 | 30.7 | 9.2 | 23.6 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 229 | 179 | Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Olivia Bailey | 68,786 | 67.7 | 30.0 | 27.6 | 8.2 | 20.8 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 242 | 166 | Banbury | Sean Woodcock | 73,193 | 65.8 | 29.2 | 28.2 | 6.4 | 22.4 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 252 | 156 | East Grinstead and Uckfield | Mims Davies | 75,385 | 66.8 | 29.5 | 21.7 | 14.6 | 16.8 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 253 | 156 | Aylesbury | Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith | 79,169 | 63.1 | 23.7 | 23.8 | 20.8 | 19.0 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 256 | 152 | Worthing West | Beccy Cooper | 77,038 | 66.2 | 29.5 | 28.3 | 4.1 | 23.6 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 256 | 152 | Oxford West and Abingdon | Layla Moran | 71,318 | 64.5 | 15.5 | 17.0 | 41.6 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 265 | 144 | Southampton Itchen | Darren Paffey | 68,379 | 55.7 | 6.4 | 41.9 | 1.1 | 37.7 | 3.3 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 266 | 143 | Aldershot | Alex Baker | 78,569 | 61.8 | 23.7 | 27.9 | 9.2 | 23.7 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 288 | 121 | Thanet East | Polly Billington | 74,940 | 57.0 | 6.7 | 40.8 | 0.8 | 38.4 | 3.2 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 292 | 116 | Sussex Mid | Alison Bennett | 75,969 | 70.2 | 22.0 | 17.4 | 35.2 | 15.1 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 298 | 110 | Buckingham and Bletchley | Callum Anderson | 74,832 | 63.7 | 29.1 | 25.7 | 6.0 | 24.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 301 | 107 | Reigate | Rebecca Paul | 77,101 | 68.9 | 27.6 | 22.4 | 10.1 | 21.3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 304 | 105 | Crawley | Peter Lamb | 75,569 | 60.4 | 19.8 | 29.2 | 4.4 | 28.5 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 310 | 99 | Folkestone and Hythe | Tony Vaughan | 70,056 | 61.7 | 16.2 | 31.4 | 3.5 | 31.2 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 319 | 89 | Arundel and South Downs | Andrew Griffith | 77,969 | 70.2 | 32.0 | 18.7 | 13.8 | 19.2 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 320 | 89 | Isle of Wight West | Richard Quigley | 55,406 | 61.9 | 24.1 | 25.0 | 9.1 | 25.9 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 321 | 87 | Bracknell | Peter Swallow | 71,656 | 61.2 | 29.8 | 23.7 | 6.1 | 25.0 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 322 | 87 | Ashford | Sojan Joseph | 76,212 | 61.6 | 23.7 | 23.9 | 7.0 | 25.2 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 326 | 82 | Maidstone and Malling | Helen Grant | 76,449 | 60.7 | 25.0 | 21.5 | 15.2 | 23.1 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 327 | 82 | Dover and Deal | Mike Tapp | 76,406 | 62.5 | 6.4 | 39.3 | 1.1 | 40.9 | 2.2 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 328 | 80 | Bicester and Woodstock | Calum Alexander Miller | 74,350 | 67.5 | 25.8 | 11.4 | 40.4 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 330 | 79 | Gillingham and Rainham | Naushabah Khan | 73,523 | 56.0 | 23.0 | 25.8 | 5.9 | 28.1 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 338 | 70 | Didcot and Wantage | Olly Glover | 80,689 | 67.8 | 25.3 | 11.5 | 39.1 | 14.1 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 340 | 68 | Buckinghamshire Mid | Greg Smith | 75,415 | 71.5 | 30.0 | 16.9 | 19.4 | 20.0 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 68 | Hampshire North West | Kit Malthouse | 78,629 | 64.6 | 26.3 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 25.3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 68 | Spelthorne | Lincoln Jopp | 73,782 | 62.6 | 24.8 | 20.7 | 16.2 | 24.1 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 68 | Tonbridge | Tom Tugendhat | 72,799 | 69.1 | 31.6 | 18.8 | 7.6 | 22.2 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 344 | 64 | Windsor | Jack Rankin | 73,334 | 61.7 | 28.5 | 18.9 | 14.3 | 22.9 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 345 | 63 | Tunbridge Wells | Mike Martin | 78,738 | 68.9 | 26.4 | 9.2 | 42.2 | 13.5 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 345 | 63 | Woking | Will Forster | 72,977 | 66.0 | 23.9 | 8.2 | 47.0 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 348 | 60 | Winchester | Danny Chambers | 78,289 | 72.9 | 27.2 | 2.0 | 59.6 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 349 | 59 | Bexhill and Battle | Kieran Mullan | 72,209 | 66.1 | 32.3 | 22.5 | 5.4 | 27.2 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 353 | 55 | Horsham | John Milne | 79,150 | 70.1 | 35.7 | 9.5 | 32.3 | 14.6 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 353 | 55 | Maidenhead | Joshua Peter Reynolds | 75,687 | 66.5 | 36.5 | 3.1 | 45.4 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 353 | 55 | Witney | Charlie Maynard | 75,448 | 67.0 | 31.1 | 13.9 | 23.8 | 19.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 355 | 54 | Dartford | Jim Dickson | 75,426 | 59.0 | 27.5 | 23.6 | 3.8 | 29.0 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 359 | 50 | Gravesham | Lauren Sullivan | 73,088 | 59.2 | 28.3 | 24.1 | 2.6 | 29.7 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 359 | 49 | Guildford | Zöe Franklin | 70,734 | 68.3 | 29.1 | 3.1 | 52.7 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 363 | 45 | Wokingham | Clive Jones | 75,082 | 71.9 | 37.6 | 2.6 | 46.0 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 363 | 45 | Lewes | James MacCleary | 76,166 | 69.8 | 20.3 | 9.9 | 42.9 | 16.0 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 363 | 45 | Eastleigh | Liz Jarvis | 69,965 | 66.3 | 28.9 | 15.4 | 22.7 | 21.6 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 363 | 45 | Henley and Thame | Freddie Van Mierlo | 73,749 | 72.1 | 38.6 | 2.6 | 44.4 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 363 | 45 | Esher and Walton | Monica Harding | 74,042 | 72.8 | 30.0 | 1.8 | 54.7 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 364 | 45 | Chatham and Aylesford | Tristan Osborne | 75,109 | 54.4 | 22.8 | 23.7 | 6.0 | 30.1 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 366 | 42 | Beaconsfield | Joy Morrissey | 72,751 | 65.6 | 31.1 | 15.0 | 18.2 | 22.0 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 40 | Hampshire East | Damian Hinds | 71,965 | 69.6 | 29.9 | 13.4 | 23.8 | 20.6 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 369 | 39 | Faversham and Mid Kent | Helen Whately | 74,301 | 62.7 | 31.7 | 20.1 | 5.1 | 27.4 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 370 | 38 | Dorking and Horley | Chris Coghlan | 71,850 | 69.5 | 35.8 | 5.1 | 39.2 | 12.8 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 370 | 38 | Chesham and Amersham | Sarah Green | 74,889 | 72.7 | 34.7 | 3.7 | 42.6 | 11.5 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 371 | 37 | Hamble Valley | Paul Holmes | 80,537 | 67.1 | 28.6 | 15.7 | 19.0 | 23.5 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 371 | 37 | Sussex Weald | Nus Ghani | 72,897 | 67.5 | 35.6 | 16.2 | 11.2 | 24.1 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 373 | 35 | Godalming and Ash | Jeremy Hunt | 74,168 | 73.7 | 40.7 | 2.0 | 40.8 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 0.0 | CON | LIB |
| 373 | 35 | Epsom and Ewell | Helen Maguire | 77,530 | 70.3 | 30.7 | 14.0 | 20.5 | 22.3 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 373 | 35 | Romsey and Southampton North | Caroline Nokes | 71,871 | 69.6 | 31.0 | 12.1 | 24.8 | 20.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 374 | 34 | Surrey Heath | Al Pinkerton | 71,934 | 66.4 | 36.3 | 6.5 | 34.8 | 14.9 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 374 | 34 | Newbury | Lee Raymond James Dillon | 71,986 | 68.0 | 33.2 | 5.8 | 37.5 | 14.3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 378 | 30 | Chichester | Jessica Brown-Fuller | 78,374 | 66.3 | 21.7 | 12.6 | 33.0 | 21.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 378 | 30 | Runnymede and Weybridge | Ben Spencer | 73,610 | 65.6 | 33.3 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 24.4 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 379 | 29 | Eastbourne | Josh Babarinde | 72,592 | 62.8 | 18.6 | 11.3 | 38.6 | 21.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 379 | 29 | New Forest West | Desmond Swayne | 68,644 | 67.5 | 32.7 | 16.9 | 10.4 | 26.8 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 380 | 29 | Rochester and Strood | Lauren Rae Edwards | 74,257 | 57.4 | 23.3 | 21.6 | 5.2 | 31.7 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 381 | 27 | Farnham and Bordon | Gregory Stafford | 75,918 | 69.8 | 28.6 | 12.8 | 21.6 | 23.1 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 382 | 26 | Havant | Alan Mak | 72,346 | 58.3 | 34.3 | 17.8 | 4.0 | 29.1 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 382 | 26 | Hampshire North East | Alex Brewer | 76,975 | 72.2 | 30.0 | 11.1 | 23.3 | 22.7 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 385 | 24 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Kevin McKenna | 79,067 | 51.9 | 23.7 | 20.8 | 4.8 | 33.2 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 387 | 22 | Herne Bay and Sandwich | Roger Gale | 77,841 | 62.7 | 28.8 | 18.6 | 4.1 | 31.5 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 389 | 19 | Fareham and Waterlooville | Suella Braverman | 77,691 | 64.5 | 33.3 | 15.3 | 10.0 | 28.5 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 391 | 17 | Portsmouth North | Amanda Martin | 70,446 | 59.0 | 32.6 | 18.5 | 3.7 | 31.9 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 394 | 14 | Gosport | Caroline Dinenage | 73,261 | 60.4 | 37.8 | 15.1 | 4.9 | 29.6 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 396 | 12 | Weald of Kent | Katie Jane Lotte Lam | 75,988 | 66.7 | 39.9 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 28.8 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 397 | 11 | Sevenoaks | Laura Trott | 73,708 | 67.7 | 36.6 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 27.8 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 397 | 11 | Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | Ali Griffiths | 77,565 | 61.7 | 40.6 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 31.2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 399 | 9 | New Forest East | Julian Lewis | 70,618 | 64.0 | 43.1 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 29.9 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 399 | 9 | Surrey East | Claire Coutinho | 73,307 | 67.1 | 42.2 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 29.7 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 401 | 7 | Isle of Wight East | Joe Robertson | 55,855 | 61.0 | 40.4 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 33.7 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.