| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 30.6% | 30 | 24.7% | 6 | 3 | +3 | 33 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 36 | 18.1% | 0 | 19 | -19 | 17 |
| LIB | 21.9% | 24 | 18.1% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 23 |
| Reform | 14.0% | 0 | 23.0% | 17 | 0 | +17 | 17 |
| Green | 6.9% | 1 | 10.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 2.1% | 0 | 5.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Oxford East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Isle of Wight East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ashford (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Hove and Portslade (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 355 | Oxford East | Anneliese Dodds | 71,845 | 54.8 | 11.1 | 39.9 | 7.5 | 13.9 | 23.2 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 33 | 339 | Hove and Portslade | Peter Kyle | 74,063 | 70.1 | 10.2 | 38.5 | 6.3 | 15.2 | 24.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 57 | 314 | Brighton Pavilion | Siân Berry | 74,786 | 70.0 | 7.6 | 27.1 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 47.2 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 58 | 314 | Reading Central | Matt Rodda | 73,600 | 61.5 | 14.9 | 34.7 | 8.2 | 16.0 | 20.1 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 75 | 297 | Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | Chris Ward | 68,784 | 59.2 | 13.8 | 32.3 | 8.5 | 15.9 | 23.1 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 120 | 252 | Portsmouth South | Stephen Morgan | 73,711 | 52.8 | 7.8 | 40.8 | 5.3 | 29.6 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 155 | 217 | Southampton Test | Satvir Kaur | 65,520 | 54.6 | 13.5 | 29.7 | 7.3 | 21.1 | 20.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 159 | 213 | Canterbury | Rosie Duffield | 71,171 | 66.4 | 11.9 | 37.0 | 5.8 | 28.7 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 174 | 198 | Worthing East and Shoreham | Tom Rutland | 74,738 | 65.7 | 13.2 | 37.5 | 5.1 | 30.8 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 177 | 195 | Slough | Tan Dhesi | 81,512 | 53.1 | 17.2 | 24.2 | 6.2 | 17.7 | 15.5 | 19.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 178 | 193 | Earley and Woodley | Yuan Yang | 73,548 | 62.4 | 30.3 | 24.3 | 10.5 | 18.1 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 183 | 189 | Hastings and Rye | Helena Dollimore | 75,939 | 60.6 | 6.0 | 44.2 | 1.8 | 38.4 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 201 | 171 | Wycombe | Emma Reynolds | 73,846 | 60.4 | 22.4 | 28.0 | 10.7 | 24.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 210 | 162 | Milton Keynes Central | Emily Darlington | 81,078 | 58.9 | 21.2 | 24.2 | 11.5 | 21.1 | 14.1 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 219 | 152 | East Grinstead and Uckfield | Mims Davies | 75,385 | 66.8 | 28.9 | 21.3 | 15.1 | 18.9 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 225 | 147 | Milton Keynes North | Chris Curtis | 70,709 | 65.0 | 23.3 | 24.3 | 9.9 | 22.6 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 231 | 141 | Southampton Itchen | Darren Paffey | 68,379 | 55.7 | 11.5 | 34.7 | 4.4 | 33.3 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 233 | 139 | Basingstoke | Luke Murphy | 78,487 | 62.4 | 23.1 | 25.6 | 9.0 | 24.3 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 235 | 137 | Banbury | Sean Woodcock | 73,193 | 65.8 | 24.9 | 25.3 | 9.5 | 24.4 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 241 | 131 | Thanet East | Polly Billington | 74,940 | 57.0 | 6.1 | 40.2 | 1.5 | 39.8 | 3.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 244 | 127 | Oxford West and Abingdon | Layla Moran | 71,318 | 64.5 | 16.7 | 13.9 | 37.3 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 246 | 126 | Worthing West | Beccy Cooper | 77,038 | 66.2 | 25.5 | 26.1 | 7.3 | 26.2 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 251 | 121 | Crawley | Peter Lamb | 75,569 | 60.4 | 20.2 | 24.1 | 7.4 | 24.6 | 14.2 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 252 | 119 | Buckingham and Bletchley | Callum Anderson | 74,832 | 63.7 | 25.0 | 23.7 | 9.3 | 24.2 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 258 | 113 | Reigate | Rebecca Paul | 77,101 | 68.9 | 28.9 | 20.9 | 10.9 | 22.3 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 267 | 104 | Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Olivia Bailey | 68,786 | 67.7 | 26.2 | 23.2 | 10.8 | 25.3 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 271 | 101 | Aldershot | Alex Baker | 78,569 | 61.8 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 10.0 | 25.8 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 281 | 91 | Bracknell | Peter Swallow | 71,656 | 61.2 | 24.0 | 22.0 | 9.4 | 25.5 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 285 | 86 | Windsor | Jack Rankin | 73,334 | 61.7 | 30.8 | 17.1 | 15.0 | 20.9 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 288 | 83 | Sussex Mid | Alison Bennett | 75,969 | 70.2 | 25.0 | 10.1 | 40.4 | 14.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 295 | 76 | Bicester and Woodstock | Calum Alexander Miller | 74,350 | 67.5 | 24.7 | 10.8 | 37.1 | 15.9 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 295 | 76 | Didcot and Wantage | Olly Glover | 80,689 | 67.8 | 22.2 | 12.0 | 34.5 | 17.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 296 | 75 | Maidenhead | Joshua Peter Reynolds | 75,687 | 66.5 | 37.1 | 2.5 | 46.1 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 300 | 72 | Dover and Deal | Mike Tapp | 76,406 | 62.5 | 8.9 | 35.8 | 3.0 | 41.3 | 3.4 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 302 | 70 | Bexhill and Battle | Kieran Mullan | 72,209 | 66.1 | 26.2 | 22.4 | 8.9 | 28.0 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 304 | 67 | Guildford | Zöe Franklin | 70,734 | 68.3 | 30.6 | 1.8 | 52.7 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 306 | 65 | Esher and Walton | Monica Harding | 74,042 | 72.8 | 30.9 | 1.6 | 53.7 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 306 | 65 | Winchester | Danny Chambers | 78,289 | 72.9 | 27.5 | 3.1 | 52.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 306 | 65 | Tunbridge Wells | Mike Martin | 78,738 | 68.9 | 24.2 | 8.5 | 40.5 | 15.0 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 306 | 65 | Woking | Will Forster | 72,977 | 66.0 | 25.0 | 5.7 | 46.6 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 306 | 65 | Wokingham | Clive Jones | 75,082 | 71.9 | 34.1 | 1.8 | 49.4 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 307 | 64 | Epsom and Ewell | Helen Maguire | 77,530 | 70.3 | 34.6 | 3.0 | 45.6 | 9.6 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 311 | 61 | Gravesham | Lauren Sullivan | 73,088 | 59.2 | 24.5 | 22.2 | 5.9 | 29.0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 316 | 56 | Gillingham and Rainham | Naushabah Khan | 73,523 | 56.0 | 22.1 | 21.8 | 8.2 | 28.8 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 324 | 48 | Faversham and Mid Kent | Helen Whately | 74,301 | 62.7 | 23.8 | 19.8 | 9.4 | 27.4 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 327 | 45 | Ashford | Sojan Joseph | 76,212 | 61.6 | 20.9 | 23.2 | 7.0 | 30.9 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 327 | 44 | Henley and Thame | Freddie Van Mierlo | 73,749 | 72.1 | 30.7 | 5.3 | 42.8 | 13.2 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 327 | 44 | Witney | Charlie Maynard | 75,448 | 67.0 | 29.5 | 7.1 | 38.3 | 14.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 328 | 43 | Chesham and Amersham | Sarah Green | 74,889 | 72.7 | 37.9 | 1.9 | 44.4 | 9.9 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 330 | 42 | Isle of Wight West | Richard Quigley | 55,406 | 61.9 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 9.3 | 31.7 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 330 | 41 | Beaconsfield | Joy Morrissey | 72,751 | 65.6 | 34.0 | 13.2 | 18.8 | 21.4 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 330 | 41 | Buckinghamshire Mid | Greg Smith | 75,415 | 71.5 | 31.9 | 14.0 | 19.4 | 22.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 331 | 41 | Havant | Alan Mak | 72,346 | 58.3 | 22.0 | 20.3 | 8.7 | 28.6 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 331 | 40 | Horsham | John Milne | 79,150 | 70.1 | 35.9 | 2.1 | 44.8 | 10.4 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 332 | 39 | Eastleigh | Liz Jarvis | 69,965 | 66.3 | 27.3 | 10.9 | 30.1 | 19.5 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 333 | 38 | Spelthorne | Lincoln Jopp | 73,782 | 62.6 | 27.8 | 15.2 | 15.9 | 23.9 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 334 | 38 | Folkestone and Hythe | Tony Vaughan | 70,056 | 61.7 | 9.7 | 33.5 | 2.8 | 42.2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 334 | 37 | Hampshire North East | Alex Brewer | 76,975 | 72.2 | 35.7 | 6.7 | 33.9 | 15.5 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 336 | 35 | Farnham and Bordon | Gregory Stafford | 75,918 | 69.8 | 30.1 | 13.0 | 21.5 | 22.0 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 336 | 35 | Lewes | James MacCleary | 76,166 | 69.8 | 20.8 | 9.7 | 39.6 | 18.7 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 336 | 35 | Surrey Heath | Al Pinkerton | 71,934 | 66.4 | 34.0 | 2.8 | 43.4 | 12.1 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 341 | 30 | Newbury | Lee Raymond James Dillon | 71,986 | 68.0 | 35.0 | 3.7 | 38.8 | 14.0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 342 | 29 | Dorking and Horley | Chris Coghlan | 71,850 | 69.5 | 28.2 | 7.4 | 36.4 | 17.8 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 346 | 26 | Rochester and Strood | Lauren Rae Edwards | 74,257 | 57.4 | 21.5 | 21.0 | 6.9 | 31.7 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 347 | 24 | Runnymede and Weybridge | Ben Spencer | 73,610 | 65.6 | 37.0 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 23.9 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 348 | 23 | Aylesbury | Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith | 79,169 | 63.1 | 30.7 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 26.2 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 350 | 21 | Godalming and Ash | Jeremy Hunt | 74,168 | 73.7 | 36.1 | 6.0 | 30.7 | 17.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 354 | 18 | Chatham and Aylesford | Tristan Osborne | 75,109 | 54.4 | 22.1 | 19.5 | 7.9 | 31.4 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 354 | 17 | Hampshire North West | Kit Malthouse | 78,629 | 64.6 | 37.0 | 14.0 | 9.9 | 26.2 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 355 | 16 | Romsey and Southampton North | Caroline Nokes | 71,871 | 69.6 | 32.3 | 9.5 | 23.7 | 21.9 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 355 | 16 | Hampshire East | Damian Hinds | 71,965 | 69.6 | 30.3 | 11.0 | 23.2 | 23.3 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 359 | 13 | Portsmouth North | Amanda Martin | 70,446 | 59.0 | 25.1 | 20.3 | 7.2 | 33.0 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 359 | 12 | Dartford | Jim Dickson | 75,426 | 59.0 | 32.6 | 16.9 | 5.5 | 29.8 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 362 | 9 | Eastbourne | Josh Babarinde | 72,592 | 62.8 | 21.0 | 7.9 | 39.5 | 21.5 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 362 | 9 | Hamble Valley | Paul Holmes | 80,537 | 67.1 | 32.6 | 11.7 | 17.6 | 25.4 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 363 | 8 | Chichester | Jessica Brown-Fuller | 78,374 | 66.3 | 20.8 | 8.9 | 37.3 | 22.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 366 | 6 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Kevin McKenna | 79,067 | 51.9 | 21.1 | 19.7 | 6.4 | 34.8 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 366 | 5 | Maidstone and Malling | Helen Grant | 76,449 | 60.7 | 33.4 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 27.7 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | Ali Griffiths | 77,565 | 61.7 | 33.6 | 13.6 | 8.0 | 30.7 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Tonbridge | Tom Tugendhat | 72,799 | 69.1 | 45.0 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 28.8 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Sevenoaks | Laura Trott | 73,708 | 67.7 | 40.0 | 8.6 | 12.8 | 28.2 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Arundel and South Downs | Andrew Griffith | 77,969 | 70.2 | 44.1 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 29.3 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Surrey East | Claire Coutinho | 73,307 | 67.1 | 43.4 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 29.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | New Forest West | Desmond Swayne | 68,644 | 67.5 | 44.7 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 30.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Sussex Weald | Nus Ghani | 72,897 | 67.5 | 42.0 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 30.2 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Fareham and Waterlooville | Suella Braverman | 77,691 | 64.5 | 44.1 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 30.2 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Herne Bay and Sandwich | Roger Gale | 77,841 | 62.7 | 41.8 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 32.5 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Weald of Kent | Katie Jane Lotte Lam | 75,988 | 66.7 | 44.7 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 31.5 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Gosport | Caroline Dinenage | 73,261 | 60.4 | 43.3 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 32.3 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | New Forest East | Julian Lewis | 70,618 | 64.0 | 43.7 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 31.7 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Isle of Wight East | Joe Robertson | 55,855 | 61.0 | 40.7 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 32.3 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.