South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 51.8%03-370
LAB 28.6%8 28.6%30+311
LIB 10.5%2 9.7%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 4.4%00+00
Green 3.1%1 4.2%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 1.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Wycombe (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
57520Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.819.
101476Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.628.864.
106471Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.228.962.
150427Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.831.458.
169408Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.535.558.
228348Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.416.626.80.02.753.
233344Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.139.549.
244333Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.934.841.
258319Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.741.945.
263314Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.243.846.
266311Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.944.
281296Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.744.844.
285292Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.544.744.
297280Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.547.845.
299278Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.546.
315262Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.346.
328249Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.447.337.
329248Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.749.640.
330247Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.848.
347230Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.350.
355222Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.051.636.
361216Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.252.836.
364213Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.852.736.
370207Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.451.534.
376201Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.
381196Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.152.633.
382195Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.553.534.
389188Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.754.
391186Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.252.331.
396181Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.154.833.
402175Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.252.330.
411166Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.051.928.
414163Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.054.530.
417160Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.551.426.913.
428149Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.348.523.03.44.518.
430147Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.656.
436141Ashford Damian Green87,39668.556.
438139Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.957.430.
441135Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.739.612.642.
447130Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.551.423.916.
449128Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.
452125Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.547.720.
456121Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.753.925.
458119Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.654.
466111Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.154.624.710.
48196Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.756.
48394Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.653.622.
48592Havant Alan Mak72,46463.957.
48691Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.156.825.
48988Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.
49186Witney Robert Courts82,72773.652.820.718.
49483Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.958.
49582Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.558.326.
50572Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.651.819.
50868Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.941.
51463Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.759.
51760Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.557.422.410.
51859Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.760.
52057Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.956.821.711.
52156Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.754.419.
52354Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.446.711.
52849Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.259.323.
53146Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.955.919.715.
53245Henley John Howell74,98776.156.420.
53443Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.358.522.
53542Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.659.622.
53938Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.357.920.611.
54136Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.256.919.
54433Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.760.922.
54532Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.849.310.532.
54631Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.361.622.
55423Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.
55621New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.859.919.813.
55819Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.861.421.
55918Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.453.
56116Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.362.521.
56413Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.462.019.410.
56710Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.760.917.
5698New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.
5707Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.458.714.
5716Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.063.018.310.
5725Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.159.113.917.
5734Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.462.817.311.
5761Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.