South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 51.8%02-271
LAB 28.6%8 27.4%20+210
LIB 10.5%2 11.5%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 3.7%00+00
Green 3.1%1 3.9%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 1.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
57516Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.819.263.910.
101472Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.628.962.
107466Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.228.961.
148425Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.831.457.
167406Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.535.657.
222350Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.416.625.51.02.553.
227346Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.139.547.
239334Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.934.839.718.
253320Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.742.
258315Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.243.845.
263310Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.944.
276297Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.744.843.
280293Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.544.743.
292281Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.547.944.
294279Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.546.
310263Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.346.
322251Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.447.336.
323250Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.749.638.
324249Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.848.
341232Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.350.
349224Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.051.634.
354219Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.252.935.
357216Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.852.734.
363210Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.451.532.
368205Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.
373200Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.152.731.
375198Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.553.532.
381192Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.754.332.
383190Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.252.330.
391182Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.154.831.
397176Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.252.328.710.
406167Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.
408165Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.054.529.
412161Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.551.525.615.
423150Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.348.621.
425148Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.656.
430143Ashford Damian Green87,39668.556.328.
430142Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.739.711.844.
433140Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.957.429.
442131Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.551.422.618.
444129Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.
446127Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.547.718.726.
450123Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.753.923.816.
452121Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.654.223.713.
461112Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.154.723.411.
47499Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.756.
47598Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.653.620.817.
47895Havant Alan Mak72,46463.957.
48093Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.156.923.713.
48390Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.
48687Witney Robert Courts82,72773.652.819.421.
48885Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.958.
48984Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.558.424.
49478Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.941.47.647.
49875Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.651.917.824.
50865Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.759.
51162Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.446.810.540.
51261Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.557.421.
51459Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.760.323.
51756Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.956.820.413.
51855Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.754.417.922.
52548Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.259.322.
52647Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.955.918.418.
52845Henley John Howell74,98776.156.418.815.
52944Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.358.520.911.
53241Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.659.621.
53637Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.357.919.314.
53736Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.256.918.
53934Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.849.39.835.
54132Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.760.921.
54231Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.361.721.611.
54924Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.453.011.810.
55221Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.
55320New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.859.918.516.
55518Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.861.519.811.
55617Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.362.520.
55914Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.462.
56310Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.760.915.916.
5658Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.458.713.
5667New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.164.118.410.
5676Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.
5685Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.
5694Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.462.816.
5721Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.