South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 51.8%03-370
LAB 28.6%8 28.6%30+311
LIB 10.5%2 9.7%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 4.4%00+00
Green 3.1%1 4.2%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 1.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Wycombe (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
57520Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.819.265.28.32.24.40.00.00.7LABLAB
101476Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.628.864.22.11.82.60.00.00.5LABLAB
106471Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.228.962.92.24.10.90.00.01.0LABLAB
150427Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.831.458.73.71.90.90.01.71.7LABLAB
169408Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.535.558.32.71.90.90.00.00.7LABLAB
228348Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.416.626.80.02.753.10.00.00.9GreenGreen
233344Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.139.549.15.62.03.00.00.00.8LABLAB
244333Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.934.841.115.85.22.90.00.00.3LABLAB
258319Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.741.945.07.32.13.30.00.00.3LABLAB
263314Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.243.846.52.84.32.50.00.00.2CONLAB
266311Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.944.146.23.14.60.90.00.01.0CONLAB
281296Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.744.844.92.74.72.70.00.00.2CONLAB
285292Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.544.744.53.64.12.70.00.00.5CONCON
297280Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.547.845.73.41.90.90.00.00.2CONCON
299278Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.546.143.45.42.02.90.00.00.2CONCON
315262Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.346.239.34.34.73.40.01.11.1CONCON
328249Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.447.337.87.14.43.20.00.00.3CONCON
329248Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.749.640.02.45.22.70.00.00.2CONCON
330247Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.848.037.92.87.92.50.00.00.8CONCON
347230Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.350.035.85.65.03.00.00.00.6CONCON
355222Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.051.636.12.07.22.30.00.00.8CONCON
361216Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.252.836.52.35.42.40.00.00.6CONCON
364213Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.852.736.22.66.12.00.00.00.5CONCON
370207Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.451.534.15.14.63.00.00.01.7CONCON
376201Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.152.033.75.16.12.70.00.00.5CONCON
381196Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.152.633.25.05.03.90.00.00.2CONCON
382195Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.553.534.03.06.42.60.00.00.5CONCON
389188Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.754.233.72.36.82.20.00.00.8CONCON
391186Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.252.331.66.85.83.30.00.00.3CONCON
396181Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.154.833.32.46.52.40.00.00.6CONCON
402175Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.252.330.08.84.43.20.00.01.3CONCON
411166Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.051.928.56.66.45.30.00.01.3CONCON
414163Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.054.530.55.06.63.20.00.00.2CONCON
417160Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.551.426.913.34.53.60.00.00.3CONCON
428149Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.348.523.03.44.518.30.02.10.2CONCON
430147Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.656.130.26.84.81.00.00.01.0CONCON
436141Ashford Damian Green87,39668.556.229.84.75.73.30.00.00.2CONCON
438139Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.957.430.62.51.82.00.04.21.6CONCON
441135Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.739.612.642.04.01.40.00.00.3LIBLIB
447130Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.551.423.916.14.73.30.00.00.7CONCON
449128Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.154.226.69.04.93.70.00.01.6CONCON
452125Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.547.720.024.05.32.70.00.00.3CONCON
456121Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.753.925.214.62.53.50.00.00.3CONCON
458119Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.654.225.011.74.43.70.00.01.0CONCON
466111Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.154.624.710.05.15.20.00.00.3CONCON
48196Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.756.224.96.05.72.90.04.10.2CONCON
48394Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.653.622.115.05.73.00.00.00.6CONCON
48592Havant Alan Mak72,46463.957.025.35.56.43.40.00.02.4CONCON
48691Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.156.825.111.42.44.10.00.00.3CONCON
48988Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.059.227.24.35.63.00.00.00.8CONCON
49186Witney Robert Courts82,72773.652.820.718.74.43.10.00.00.3CONCON
49483Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.958.226.06.75.33.60.00.00.3CONCON
49582Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.558.326.16.05.53.90.00.00.2CONCON
50572Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.651.819.022.22.83.40.00.00.8CONCON
50868Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.941.38.245.22.82.20.00.00.3LIBLIB
51463Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.759.224.76.95.53.40.00.00.3CONCON
51760Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.557.422.410.35.14.50.00.00.4CONCON
51859Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.760.225.26.24.83.30.00.00.3CONCON
52057Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.956.821.711.34.84.10.00.01.3CONCON
52156Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.754.419.219.52.83.30.00.00.9CONCON
52354Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.446.711.237.62.81.40.00.00.3CONCON
52849Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.259.323.58.94.73.40.00.00.3CONCON
53146Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.955.919.715.94.33.10.00.01.2CONCON
53245Henley John Howell74,98776.156.420.113.64.54.50.00.01.0CONCON
53443Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.358.522.29.55.24.30.00.00.3CONCON
53542Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.659.622.77.34.95.30.00.00.3CONCON
53938Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.357.920.611.95.24.20.00.00.3CONCON
54136Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.256.919.39.66.03.00.05.00.3CONCON
54433Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.760.922.36.15.35.10.00.00.2CONCON
54532Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.849.310.532.84.02.80.00.00.6CONCON
54631Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.361.622.99.22.23.80.00.00.3CONCON
55423Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.161.021.07.65.84.30.00.00.3CONCON
55621New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.859.919.813.92.53.70.00.00.3CONCON
55819Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.861.421.19.92.35.00.00.00.3CONCON
55918Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.453.012.69.04.01.10.020.00.3CONCON
56116Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.362.521.57.35.03.50.00.00.3CONCON
56413Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.462.019.410.33.82.70.00.51.4CONCON
56710Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.760.917.013.92.54.40.00.01.3CONCON
5698New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.164.119.68.82.24.00.00.01.2CONCON
5707Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.458.714.119.72.83.90.00.00.8CONCON
5716Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.063.018.310.04.93.50.00.00.3CONCON
5725Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.159.113.917.75.13.90.00.00.3CONCON
5734Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.462.817.311.14.23.70.00.00.9CONCON
5761Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.262.40.00.09.617.10.010.70.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.