| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 30.6% | 30 | 23.2% | 12 | 8 | +4 | 34 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 36 | 14.3% | 0 | 34 | -34 | 2 |
| LIB | 21.9% | 24 | 18.4% | 0 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| Reform | 14.0% | 0 | 27.1% | 31 | 0 | +31 | 31 |
| Green | 6.9% | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| Other | 2.1% | 0 | 4.5% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Oxford East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Isle of Wight East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Isle of Wight East (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Oxford East (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 304 | Oxford East | Anneliese Dodds | 71,845 | 54.8 | 9.1 | 25.7 | 8.5 | 16.3 | 31.0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | LAB | Green |
| 27 | 301 | Reading Central | Matt Rodda | 73,600 | 61.5 | 14.6 | 26.1 | 9.4 | 17.5 | 28.3 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | Green |
| 30 | 299 | Hove and Portslade | Peter Kyle | 74,063 | 70.1 | 9.6 | 29.6 | 7.5 | 21.5 | 26.3 | 0.0 | 5.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 52 | 276 | Slough | Tan Dhesi | 81,512 | 53.1 | 15.2 | 18.2 | 6.5 | 13.2 | 18.8 | 28.2 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 52 | 276 | Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | Chris Ward | 68,784 | 59.2 | 14.7 | 24.0 | 9.6 | 19.1 | 27.7 | 0.0 | 5.0 | LAB | Green |
| 58 | 270 | Brighton Pavilion | Siân Berry | 74,786 | 70.0 | 5.5 | 16.1 | 4.5 | 12.9 | 57.6 | 0.0 | 3.4 | Green | Green |
| 65 | 263 | Earley and Woodley | Yuan Yang | 73,548 | 62.4 | 29.0 | 20.9 | 14.3 | 18.4 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | CON |
| 68 | 260 | Wycombe | Emma Reynolds | 73,846 | 60.4 | 21.3 | 20.4 | 13.0 | 18.6 | 16.0 | 7.5 | 3.3 | LAB | CON |
| 72 | 257 | Worthing East and Shoreham | Tom Rutland | 74,738 | 65.7 | 14.4 | 32.6 | 6.8 | 31.3 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 4.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 98 | 231 | Canterbury | Rosie Duffield | 71,171 | 66.4 | 17.8 | 22.6 | 10.0 | 24.6 | 20.9 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 107 | 222 | Milton Keynes Central | Emily Darlington | 81,078 | 58.9 | 21.7 | 20.0 | 12.9 | 22.9 | 19.5 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 108 | 221 | Portsmouth South | Stephen Morgan | 73,711 | 52.8 | 12.2 | 23.0 | 11.7 | 25.9 | 21.9 | 0.0 | 5.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 125 | 204 | Southampton Test | Satvir Kaur | 65,520 | 54.6 | 12.6 | 22.3 | 7.9 | 26.8 | 20.9 | 7.3 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 128 | 201 | Milton Keynes North | Chris Curtis | 70,709 | 65.0 | 22.3 | 21.1 | 11.4 | 25.9 | 16.4 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 133 | 195 | Aylesbury | Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith | 79,169 | 63.1 | 23.2 | 15.2 | 20.5 | 21.1 | 14.4 | 4.9 | 0.6 | LAB | CON |
| 135 | 194 | Hastings and Rye | Helena Dollimore | 75,939 | 60.6 | 14.9 | 21.8 | 8.1 | 27.8 | 19.9 | 5.3 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 138 | 191 | Basingstoke | Luke Murphy | 78,487 | 62.4 | 21.2 | 20.5 | 11.8 | 26.7 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 141 | 188 | Southampton Itchen | Darren Paffey | 68,379 | 55.7 | 18.2 | 22.4 | 8.9 | 29.0 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 5.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 145 | 183 | Oxford West and Abingdon | Layla Moran | 71,318 | 64.5 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 33.3 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 150 | 179 | Worthing West | Beccy Cooper | 77,038 | 66.2 | 25.4 | 22.6 | 7.6 | 29.9 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 152 | 177 | Banbury | Sean Woodcock | 73,193 | 65.8 | 27.5 | 20.3 | 9.6 | 27.8 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 4.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 156 | 173 | Aldershot | Alex Baker | 78,569 | 61.8 | 22.0 | 20.2 | 12.8 | 28.0 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 162 | 166 | Maidenhead | Joshua Peter Reynolds | 75,687 | 66.5 | 36.7 | 1.8 | 44.8 | 10.4 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 171 | 157 | Wokingham | Clive Jones | 75,082 | 71.9 | 37.2 | 1.6 | 44.1 | 10.9 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 173 | 155 | Sussex Mid | Alison Bennett | 75,969 | 70.2 | 20.5 | 11.3 | 32.7 | 20.7 | 11.9 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 175 | 154 | Crawley | Peter Lamb | 75,569 | 60.4 | 19.6 | 19.0 | 8.6 | 28.5 | 15.4 | 8.3 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 180 | 148 | Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Olivia Bailey | 68,786 | 67.7 | 32.9 | 16.6 | 9.4 | 26.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | CON |
| 189 | 140 | Dover and Deal | Mike Tapp | 76,406 | 62.5 | 17.3 | 22.2 | 9.1 | 33.2 | 11.4 | 0.8 | 6.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 192 | 136 | Guildford | Zöe Franklin | 70,734 | 68.3 | 22.1 | 7.3 | 37.0 | 18.8 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 192 | 136 | Winchester | Danny Chambers | 78,289 | 72.9 | 20.4 | 6.3 | 41.5 | 17.8 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 195 | 133 | Buckingham and Bletchley | Callum Anderson | 74,832 | 63.7 | 31.5 | 17.5 | 7.9 | 29.3 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | CON |
| 195 | 133 | Chesham and Amersham | Sarah Green | 74,889 | 72.7 | 32.0 | 4.2 | 37.6 | 16.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 199 | 129 | Bicester and Woodstock | Calum Alexander Miller | 74,350 | 67.5 | 21.1 | 10.2 | 31.3 | 22.1 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 199 | 129 | Woking | Will Forster | 72,977 | 66.0 | 21.4 | 7.0 | 38.7 | 19.1 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 202 | 127 | Thanet East | Polly Billington | 74,940 | 57.0 | 17.1 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 33.2 | 15.1 | 0.0 | 6.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 206 | 122 | East Grinstead and Uckfield | Mims Davies | 75,385 | 66.8 | 28.0 | 12.7 | 16.2 | 25.4 | 12.4 | 0.0 | 5.4 | CON | CON |
| 207 | 121 | Esher and Walton | Monica Harding | 74,042 | 72.8 | 22.6 | 6.1 | 41.5 | 18.9 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 213 | 115 | Buckinghamshire Mid | Greg Smith | 75,415 | 71.5 | 27.7 | 12.3 | 21.7 | 25.8 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 3.9 | CON | CON |
| 213 | 115 | Tunbridge Wells | Mike Martin | 78,738 | 68.9 | 21.6 | 8.3 | 34.6 | 22.0 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 214 | 114 | Didcot and Wantage | Olly Glover | 80,689 | 67.8 | 20.9 | 9.2 | 31.7 | 23.0 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 2.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 216 | 113 | Spelthorne | Lincoln Jopp | 73,782 | 62.6 | 22.7 | 14.4 | 18.5 | 28.6 | 12.1 | 0.0 | 3.7 | CON | Reform |
| 217 | 112 | Gillingham and Rainham | Naushabah Khan | 73,523 | 56.0 | 20.2 | 19.0 | 9.9 | 33.2 | 13.3 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 217 | 111 | Eastbourne | Josh Babarinde | 72,592 | 62.8 | 19.5 | 7.7 | 37.0 | 22.1 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 4.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 217 | 111 | Horsham | John Milne | 79,150 | 70.1 | 31.0 | 8.3 | 26.4 | 22.7 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LIB | CON |
| 220 | 108 | Beaconsfield | Joy Morrissey | 72,751 | 65.6 | 30.3 | 11.0 | 22.1 | 25.5 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 3.9 | CON | CON |
| 222 | 106 | Epsom and Ewell | Helen Maguire | 77,530 | 70.3 | 27.0 | 10.8 | 25.3 | 25.5 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LIB | CON |
| 226 | 102 | Godalming and Ash | Jeremy Hunt | 74,168 | 73.7 | 35.6 | 3.7 | 35.0 | 18.7 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 2.8 | CON | CON |
| 236 | 93 | Isle of Wight West | Richard Quigley | 55,406 | 61.9 | 19.0 | 18.5 | 12.3 | 34.3 | 12.8 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 241 | 87 | Eastleigh | Liz Jarvis | 69,965 | 66.3 | 27.6 | 9.8 | 23.8 | 26.2 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LIB | CON |
| 241 | 87 | Windsor | Jack Rankin | 73,334 | 61.7 | 35.3 | 10.4 | 14.1 | 26.8 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 3.1 | CON | CON |
| 244 | 84 | Reigate | Rebecca Paul | 77,101 | 68.9 | 33.5 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 30.0 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 3.2 | CON | CON |
| 244 | 84 | Romsey and Southampton North | Caroline Nokes | 71,871 | 69.6 | 29.9 | 7.9 | 26.9 | 24.8 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | CON | CON |
| 246 | 83 | Folkestone and Hythe | Tony Vaughan | 70,056 | 61.7 | 17.1 | 18.9 | 7.8 | 36.1 | 14.2 | 0.0 | 5.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 246 | 82 | Surrey Heath | Al Pinkerton | 71,934 | 66.4 | 30.0 | 6.7 | 28.7 | 23.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LIB | CON |
| 248 | 80 | Henley and Thame | Freddie Van Mierlo | 73,749 | 72.1 | 26.9 | 7.1 | 28.8 | 24.5 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 251 | 78 | Maidstone and Malling | Helen Grant | 76,449 | 60.7 | 24.5 | 12.7 | 14.6 | 30.4 | 14.1 | 0.0 | 3.7 | CON | Reform |
| 251 | 77 | Chichester | Jessica Brown-Fuller | 78,374 | 66.3 | 21.0 | 6.9 | 34.5 | 24.6 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 252 | 77 | Witney | Charlie Maynard | 75,448 | 67.0 | 26.3 | 8.6 | 25.7 | 26.5 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LIB | Reform |
| 253 | 76 | Farnham and Bordon | Gregory Stafford | 75,918 | 69.8 | 26.1 | 10.0 | 25.7 | 27.9 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | CON | Reform |
| 253 | 75 | Dorking and Horley | Chris Coghlan | 71,850 | 69.5 | 27.2 | 7.4 | 27.6 | 25.4 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 255 | 74 | Chatham and Aylesford | Tristan Osborne | 75,109 | 54.4 | 20.4 | 16.3 | 9.5 | 34.6 | 13.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 255 | 73 | Hampshire East | Damian Hinds | 71,965 | 69.6 | 27.5 | 8.4 | 26.3 | 26.9 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 3.5 | CON | CON |
| 255 | 73 | Newbury | Lee Raymond James Dillon | 71,986 | 68.0 | 27.2 | 6.6 | 29.5 | 25.4 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 258 | 70 | Hamble Valley | Paul Holmes | 80,537 | 67.1 | 30.9 | 9.7 | 20.0 | 28.9 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 3.3 | CON | CON |
| 258 | 70 | Hampshire North East | Alex Brewer | 76,975 | 72.2 | 27.4 | 7.8 | 28.6 | 27.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 260 | 69 | Ashford | Sojan Joseph | 76,212 | 61.6 | 18.1 | 15.9 | 9.7 | 35.3 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 260 | 68 | Dartford | Jim Dickson | 75,426 | 59.0 | 36.4 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 32.4 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 5.1 | LAB | CON |
| 264 | 65 | Gravesham | Lauren Sullivan | 73,088 | 59.2 | 32.0 | 15.5 | 4.8 | 35.4 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 4.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 271 | 58 | Rochester and Strood | Lauren Rae Edwards | 74,257 | 57.4 | 20.2 | 16.1 | 8.7 | 37.9 | 12.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 274 | 54 | Hampshire North West | Kit Malthouse | 78,629 | 64.6 | 42.1 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 31.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 3.9 | CON | CON |
| 274 | 54 | Bracknell | Peter Swallow | 71,656 | 61.2 | 39.7 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 33.4 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 4.6 | LAB | CON |
| 275 | 53 | Sevenoaks | Laura Trott | 73,708 | 67.7 | 31.9 | 8.5 | 17.8 | 31.5 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 4.2 | CON | CON |
| 279 | 49 | Runnymede and Weybridge | Ben Spencer | 73,610 | 65.6 | 42.1 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 31.5 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 3.7 | CON | CON |
| 280 | 48 | Fareham and Waterlooville | Suella Braverman | 77,691 | 64.5 | 37.4 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 33.8 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 4.1 | CON | CON |
| 283 | 45 | New Forest West | Desmond Swayne | 68,644 | 67.5 | 38.1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 34.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | CON | CON |
| 295 | 33 | Tonbridge | Tom Tugendhat | 72,799 | 69.1 | 40.5 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 34.6 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 4.4 | CON | CON |
| 296 | 33 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Kevin McKenna | 79,067 | 51.9 | 19.0 | 14.2 | 8.6 | 42.2 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 297 | 32 | Herne Bay and Sandwich | Roger Gale | 77,841 | 62.7 | 31.4 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 40.2 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 3.9 | CON | Reform |
| 297 | 31 | Arundel and South Downs | Andrew Griffith | 77,969 | 70.2 | 38.5 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 35.1 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 3.5 | CON | CON |
| 298 | 30 | Lewes | James MacCleary | 76,166 | 69.8 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 51.4 | 31.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 2.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 299 | 30 | Havant | Alan Mak | 72,346 | 58.3 | 29.5 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 39.6 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 299 | 29 | Bexhill and Battle | Kieran Mullan | 72,209 | 66.1 | 39.0 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 37.6 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 5.6 | CON | CON |
| 299 | 29 | Gosport | Caroline Dinenage | 73,261 | 60.4 | 41.6 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 36.7 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 4.2 | CON | CON |
| 299 | 29 | Sussex Weald | Nus Ghani | 72,897 | 67.5 | 40.2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 35.4 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 5.0 | CON | CON |
| 299 | 29 | Portsmouth North | Amanda Martin | 70,446 | 59.0 | 39.4 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 38.4 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | CON |
| 299 | 29 | Weald of Kent | Katie Jane Lotte Lam | 75,988 | 66.7 | 39.4 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 37.8 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 4.0 | CON | CON |
| 301 | 28 | Faversham and Mid Kent | Helen Whately | 74,301 | 62.7 | 36.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 38.7 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 4.4 | CON | Reform |
| 303 | 25 | New Forest East | Julian Lewis | 70,618 | 64.0 | 40.8 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 36.6 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 4.0 | CON | CON |
| 304 | 24 | Surrey East | Claire Coutinho | 73,307 | 67.1 | 40.0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 36.9 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 3.5 | CON | CON |
| 305 | 24 | Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | Ali Griffiths | 77,565 | 61.7 | 38.7 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 39.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 4.8 | CON | Reform |
| 313 | 16 | Isle of Wight East | Joe Robertson | 55,855 | 61.0 | 36.5 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 39.9 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 4.7 | CON | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.