| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 30.6% | 30 | 26.3% | 8 | 1 | +7 | 37 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 36 | 21.6% | 0 | 10 | -10 | 26 |
| LIB | 21.9% | 24 | 15.6% | 0 | 4 | -4 | 20 |
| Reform | 14.0% | 0 | 21.1% | 7 | 0 | +7 | 7 |
| Green | 6.9% | 1 | 8.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 2.1% | 0 | 6.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Brighton Pavilion' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Newbury', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Reigate (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Slough (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 357 | Brighton Pavilion | Siân Berry | 74,786 | 70.0 | 6.6 | 36.2 | 1.0 | 5.8 | 45.0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 70 | 353 | Hove and Portslade | Peter Kyle | 74,063 | 70.1 | 13.4 | 42.8 | 3.8 | 12.9 | 20.2 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 79 | 344 | Oxford East | Anneliese Dodds | 71,845 | 54.8 | 17.6 | 39.5 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 19.5 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 96 | 327 | Slough | Tan Dhesi | 81,512 | 53.1 | 32.1 | 33.8 | 1.3 | 8.4 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 98 | 325 | Reading Central | Matt Rodda | 73,600 | 61.5 | 16.3 | 38.2 | 5.8 | 13.1 | 21.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 114 | 309 | Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | Chris Ward | 68,784 | 59.2 | 18.6 | 35.8 | 5.9 | 13.0 | 21.1 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 120 | 303 | Milton Keynes Central | Emily Darlington | 81,078 | 58.9 | 29.3 | 35.4 | 5.7 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 136 | 287 | Milton Keynes North | Chris Curtis | 70,709 | 65.0 | 31.2 | 35.0 | 4.1 | 14.4 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 162 | 260 | Wycombe | Emma Reynolds | 73,846 | 60.4 | 32.9 | 32.1 | 5.3 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 188 | 235 | Southampton Test | Satvir Kaur | 65,520 | 54.6 | 15.8 | 34.4 | 4.6 | 18.9 | 16.1 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 212 | 210 | East Grinstead and Uckfield | Mims Davies | 75,385 | 66.8 | 34.0 | 25.9 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 224 | 199 | Earley and Woodley | Yuan Yang | 73,548 | 62.4 | 27.6 | 31.0 | 7.7 | 17.9 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 226 | 197 | Canterbury | Rosie Duffield | 71,171 | 66.4 | 20.2 | 33.2 | 6.4 | 20.2 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 231 | 192 | Worthing East and Shoreham | Tom Rutland | 74,738 | 65.7 | 20.8 | 35.1 | 5.2 | 22.5 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 239 | 184 | Basingstoke | Luke Murphy | 78,487 | 62.4 | 26.2 | 32.1 | 6.7 | 20.2 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 245 | 178 | Portsmouth South | Stephen Morgan | 73,711 | 52.8 | 16.9 | 32.4 | 8.2 | 20.7 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 255 | 167 | Spelthorne | Lincoln Jopp | 73,782 | 62.6 | 32.4 | 25.8 | 10.7 | 14.9 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 256 | 167 | Crawley | Peter Lamb | 75,569 | 60.4 | 23.8 | 32.2 | 4.4 | 21.5 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 265 | 158 | Hastings and Rye | Helena Dollimore | 75,939 | 60.6 | 15.5 | 35.8 | 4.0 | 25.4 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 283 | 140 | Aldershot | Alex Baker | 78,569 | 61.8 | 24.9 | 31.4 | 7.0 | 22.3 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 289 | 134 | Thanet East | Polly Billington | 74,940 | 57.0 | 12.7 | 39.2 | 1.9 | 30.5 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 293 | 130 | Southampton Itchen | Darren Paffey | 68,379 | 55.7 | 19.1 | 32.0 | 4.6 | 23.8 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 306 | 117 | Banbury | Sean Woodcock | 73,193 | 65.8 | 27.0 | 29.0 | 7.3 | 22.1 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 310 | 113 | Dover and Deal | Mike Tapp | 76,406 | 62.5 | 7.1 | 44.3 | 0.9 | 37.6 | 1.2 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 316 | 107 | Worthing West | Beccy Cooper | 77,038 | 66.2 | 25.8 | 30.2 | 5.1 | 23.9 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 321 | 102 | Buckingham and Bletchley | Callum Anderson | 74,832 | 63.7 | 26.3 | 28.4 | 7.0 | 22.5 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 323 | 100 | Gillingham and Rainham | Naushabah Khan | 73,523 | 56.0 | 23.8 | 30.6 | 4.8 | 24.9 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 329 | 93 | Reigate | Rebecca Paul | 77,101 | 68.9 | 26.4 | 25.2 | 9.0 | 20.0 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 82 | Aylesbury | Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith | 79,169 | 63.1 | 28.0 | 24.3 | 14.9 | 20.3 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 340 | 82 | Maidstone and Malling | Helen Grant | 76,449 | 60.7 | 30.1 | 22.0 | 11.8 | 18.2 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 341 | 81 | Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Olivia Bailey | 68,786 | 67.7 | 28.3 | 26.2 | 9.1 | 22.4 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 355 | 67 | Oxford West and Abingdon | Layla Moran | 71,318 | 64.5 | 22.0 | 16.4 | 33.9 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 359 | 63 | Faversham and Mid Kent | Helen Whately | 74,301 | 62.7 | 27.9 | 22.1 | 7.8 | 21.2 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 359 | 63 | Bexhill and Battle | Kieran Mullan | 72,209 | 66.1 | 33.3 | 21.8 | 8.0 | 20.9 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 359 | 63 | Windsor | Jack Rankin | 73,334 | 61.7 | 30.2 | 20.1 | 14.6 | 19.2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 360 | 63 | Folkestone and Hythe | Tony Vaughan | 70,056 | 61.7 | 12.6 | 35.8 | 2.1 | 34.9 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 360 | 62 | Bracknell | Peter Swallow | 71,656 | 61.2 | 26.2 | 25.4 | 7.5 | 24.5 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 361 | 62 | Isle of Wight West | Richard Quigley | 55,406 | 61.9 | 25.2 | 27.7 | 7.6 | 26.9 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 361 | 61 | Havant | Alan Mak | 72,346 | 58.3 | 26.4 | 22.8 | 6.5 | 22.1 | 8.7 | 13.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 361 | 61 | Hampshire North West | Kit Malthouse | 78,629 | 64.6 | 27.2 | 23.1 | 10.6 | 22.4 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 362 | 61 | Ashford | Sojan Joseph | 76,212 | 61.6 | 24.0 | 26.8 | 5.3 | 26.4 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 367 | 56 | Gravesham | Lauren Sullivan | 73,088 | 59.2 | 24.2 | 27.4 | 4.0 | 27.5 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 368 | 55 | Chatham and Aylesford | Tristan Osborne | 75,109 | 54.4 | 24.2 | 27.2 | 4.8 | 27.4 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 369 | 53 | Buckinghamshire Mid | Greg Smith | 75,415 | 71.5 | 29.5 | 19.6 | 15.3 | 19.9 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 375 | 48 | Dartford | Jim Dickson | 75,426 | 59.0 | 25.1 | 25.7 | 4.9 | 26.9 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 376 | 46 | Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | Ali Griffiths | 77,565 | 61.7 | 30.1 | 21.2 | 8.4 | 22.5 | 6.0 | 11.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 377 | 45 | Runnymede and Weybridge | Ben Spencer | 73,610 | 65.6 | 29.5 | 19.9 | 13.9 | 21.3 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 386 | 37 | Rochester and Strood | Lauren Rae Edwards | 74,257 | 57.4 | 24.4 | 26.4 | 5.1 | 29.1 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 387 | 35 | New Forest West | Desmond Swayne | 68,644 | 67.5 | 27.6 | 21.8 | 10.9 | 24.5 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 387 | 35 | Beaconsfield | Joy Morrissey | 72,751 | 65.6 | 31.0 | 17.4 | 17.1 | 20.1 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 387 | 35 | Arundel and South Downs | Andrew Griffith | 77,969 | 70.2 | 28.5 | 19.5 | 10.6 | 22.3 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 393 | 30 | Herne Bay and Sandwich | Roger Gale | 77,841 | 62.7 | 24.9 | 24.1 | 5.0 | 27.5 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 393 | 29 | Sussex Weald | Nus Ghani | 72,897 | 67.5 | 31.9 | 16.5 | 14.3 | 20.0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 393 | 29 | Tonbridge | Tom Tugendhat | 72,799 | 69.1 | 29.0 | 19.2 | 6.5 | 22.7 | 13.9 | 8.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 394 | 28 | Fareham and Waterlooville | Suella Braverman | 77,691 | 64.5 | 27.1 | 20.6 | 11.7 | 24.6 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 396 | 26 | Sussex Mid | Alison Bennett | 75,969 | 70.2 | 36.1 | 3.8 | 47.2 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 396 | 26 | Winchester | Danny Chambers | 78,289 | 72.9 | 35.4 | 2.4 | 51.2 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 396 | 26 | Guildford | Zöe Franklin | 70,734 | 68.3 | 36.9 | 2.6 | 48.9 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 400 | 22 | Bicester and Woodstock | Calum Alexander Miller | 74,350 | 67.5 | 36.8 | 3.5 | 46.0 | 8.7 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 400 | 22 | Woking | Will Forster | 72,977 | 66.0 | 34.7 | 2.5 | 50.8 | 7.7 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 400 | 22 | Esher and Walton | Monica Harding | 74,042 | 72.8 | 36.7 | 2.1 | 50.2 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 400 | 22 | Weald of Kent | Katie Jane Lotte Lam | 75,988 | 66.7 | 28.4 | 21.0 | 6.3 | 26.3 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 400 | 22 | Farnham and Bordon | Gregory Stafford | 75,918 | 69.8 | 29.0 | 15.3 | 21.7 | 20.7 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 401 | 21 | Didcot and Wantage | Olly Glover | 80,689 | 67.8 | 36.6 | 3.3 | 46.0 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 401 | 21 | Tunbridge Wells | Mike Martin | 78,738 | 68.9 | 36.7 | 3.0 | 47.0 | 8.6 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 403 | 19 | Romsey and Southampton North | Caroline Nokes | 71,871 | 69.6 | 31.6 | 13.9 | 21.0 | 19.7 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 403 | 19 | Hampshire East | Damian Hinds | 71,965 | 69.6 | 29.9 | 14.9 | 20.2 | 20.7 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 403 | 19 | Wokingham | Clive Jones | 75,082 | 71.9 | 38.8 | 2.3 | 45.5 | 8.2 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 404 | 18 | Lewes | James MacCleary | 76,166 | 69.8 | 29.0 | 8.4 | 40.5 | 14.7 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 404 | 18 | Maidenhead | Joshua Peter Reynolds | 75,687 | 66.5 | 38.3 | 3.3 | 43.2 | 9.9 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 405 | 17 | Hamble Valley | Paul Holmes | 80,537 | 67.1 | 31.1 | 15.7 | 15.9 | 22.6 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 408 | 15 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Kevin McKenna | 79,067 | 51.9 | 26.5 | 23.6 | 4.0 | 30.7 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 408 | 14 | Godalming and Ash | Jeremy Hunt | 74,168 | 73.7 | 36.5 | 8.5 | 28.7 | 15.8 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 408 | 14 | Henley and Thame | Freddie Van Mierlo | 73,749 | 72.1 | 39.5 | 2.2 | 43.4 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 408 | 14 | Epsom and Ewell | Helen Maguire | 77,530 | 70.3 | 38.0 | 4.2 | 40.6 | 11.5 | 1.4 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 409 | 13 | Witney | Charlie Maynard | 75,448 | 67.0 | 32.9 | 9.2 | 32.2 | 16.8 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 409 | 13 | Horsham | John Milne | 79,150 | 70.1 | 41.3 | 2.6 | 40.5 | 10.2 | 1.2 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 411 | 11 | Surrey Heath | Al Pinkerton | 71,934 | 66.4 | 39.9 | 2.4 | 41.0 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 411 | 11 | Isle of Wight East | Joe Robertson | 55,855 | 61.0 | 33.5 | 14.6 | 8.0 | 23.3 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 411 | 11 | Gosport | Caroline Dinenage | 73,261 | 60.4 | 33.8 | 17.6 | 6.0 | 26.8 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 413 | 9 | Dorking and Horley | Chris Coghlan | 71,850 | 69.5 | 34.8 | 5.8 | 36.5 | 15.4 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 413 | 9 | Eastleigh | Liz Jarvis | 69,965 | 66.3 | 29.8 | 11.8 | 27.7 | 21.7 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 414 | 9 | Portsmouth North | Amanda Martin | 70,446 | 59.0 | 25.9 | 21.1 | 7.3 | 31.4 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 414 | 8 | Chesham and Amersham | Sarah Green | 74,889 | 72.7 | 27.4 | 12.0 | 29.1 | 23.0 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 414 | 8 | Eastbourne | Josh Babarinde | 72,592 | 62.8 | 24.3 | 10.7 | 33.7 | 21.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 415 | 7 | Surrey East | Claire Coutinho | 73,307 | 67.1 | 37.6 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 25.6 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 416 | 6 | Chichester | Jessica Brown-Fuller | 78,374 | 66.3 | 24.5 | 10.4 | 33.0 | 23.2 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 417 | 5 | Sevenoaks | Laura Trott | 73,708 | 67.7 | 41.2 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 25.0 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 417 | 5 | Hampshire North East | Alex Brewer | 76,975 | 72.2 | 27.8 | 11.8 | 26.2 | 26.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 417 | 5 | New Forest East | Julian Lewis | 70,618 | 64.0 | 40.8 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 26.7 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 417 | 5 | Newbury | Lee Raymond James Dillon | 71,986 | 68.0 | 26.9 | 10.7 | 26.9 | 25.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.