| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 30.6% | 30 | 24.0% | 4 | 3 | +1 | 31 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 36 | 14.1% | 0 | 27 | -27 | 9 |
| LIB | 21.9% | 24 | 19.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 23 |
| Reform | 14.0% | 0 | 25.5% | 27 | 0 | +27 | 27 |
| Green | 6.9% | 1 | 11.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 2.1% | 0 | 5.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Isle of Wight East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Chatham and Aylesford (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Hove and Portslade (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 317 | Hove and Portslade | Peter Kyle | 74,063 | 70.1 | 9.5 | 32.5 | 7.6 | 19.3 | 25.7 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 38 | 313 | Reading Central | Matt Rodda | 73,600 | 61.5 | 14.2 | 30.9 | 9.6 | 18.4 | 20.9 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 40 | 310 | Brighton Pavilion | Siân Berry | 74,786 | 70.0 | 7.0 | 23.1 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 48.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 47 | 304 | Oxford East | Anneliese Dodds | 71,845 | 54.8 | 10.4 | 30.7 | 9.3 | 20.0 | 25.2 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 76 | 275 | Canterbury | Rosie Duffield | 71,171 | 66.4 | 6.9 | 41.8 | 3.4 | 35.1 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 271 | Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | Chris Ward | 68,784 | 59.2 | 13.1 | 26.2 | 10.1 | 19.8 | 24.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 109 | 242 | Portsmouth South | Stephen Morgan | 73,711 | 52.8 | 8.7 | 34.0 | 7.5 | 30.8 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 115 | 236 | Worthing East and Shoreham | Tom Rutland | 74,738 | 65.7 | 7.8 | 40.5 | 3.0 | 37.8 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 129 | 222 | Hastings and Rye | Helena Dollimore | 75,939 | 60.6 | 5.7 | 41.8 | 2.1 | 40.5 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 137 | 214 | Southampton Test | Satvir Kaur | 65,520 | 54.6 | 12.8 | 24.6 | 8.7 | 24.4 | 21.1 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 145 | 205 | Earley and Woodley | Yuan Yang | 73,548 | 62.4 | 29.6 | 20.1 | 12.0 | 20.6 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 158 | 193 | Milton Keynes Central | Emily Darlington | 81,078 | 58.9 | 20.5 | 20.9 | 13.0 | 23.0 | 14.8 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 171 | 180 | Milton Keynes North | Chris Curtis | 70,709 | 65.0 | 22.6 | 21.1 | 11.3 | 24.5 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 175 | 176 | Slough | Tan Dhesi | 81,512 | 53.1 | 16.5 | 18.1 | 7.6 | 21.8 | 16.8 | 19.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 185 | 166 | Basingstoke | Luke Murphy | 78,487 | 62.4 | 22.4 | 22.1 | 10.4 | 26.4 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 202 | 148 | Oxford West and Abingdon | Layla Moran | 71,318 | 64.5 | 16.0 | 10.3 | 38.7 | 16.0 | 15.1 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 214 | 137 | Worthing West | Beccy Cooper | 77,038 | 66.2 | 24.8 | 22.1 | 8.6 | 28.8 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 218 | 133 | Banbury | Sean Woodcock | 73,193 | 65.8 | 24.2 | 20.4 | 11.1 | 27.4 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 226 | 125 | Southampton Itchen | Darren Paffey | 68,379 | 55.7 | 17.4 | 22.1 | 9.0 | 29.6 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 227 | 123 | Maidenhead | Joshua Peter Reynolds | 75,687 | 66.5 | 37.0 | 1.7 | 45.5 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 228 | 123 | Buckingham and Bletchley | Callum Anderson | 74,832 | 63.7 | 24.3 | 19.3 | 10.8 | 26.9 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 228 | 122 | Sussex Mid | Alison Bennett | 75,969 | 70.2 | 22.2 | 10.3 | 36.9 | 18.1 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 230 | 120 | Esher and Walton | Monica Harding | 74,042 | 72.8 | 29.6 | 1.7 | 52.3 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 231 | 119 | Guildford | Zöe Franklin | 70,734 | 68.3 | 28.5 | 2.6 | 49.3 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 233 | 118 | Wycombe | Emma Reynolds | 73,846 | 60.4 | 21.7 | 20.8 | 12.5 | 28.6 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 233 | 117 | Wokingham | Clive Jones | 75,082 | 71.9 | 33.7 | 1.3 | 49.3 | 9.2 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 237 | 114 | Thanet East | Polly Billington | 74,940 | 57.0 | 11.3 | 29.3 | 4.7 | 37.4 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 238 | 113 | Aldershot | Alex Baker | 78,569 | 61.8 | 22.2 | 19.6 | 11.4 | 27.8 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 239 | 111 | Epsom and Ewell | Helen Maguire | 77,530 | 70.3 | 30.5 | 6.7 | 37.6 | 15.0 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 247 | 104 | Crawley | Peter Lamb | 75,569 | 60.4 | 19.5 | 18.9 | 8.8 | 28.0 | 15.3 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 247 | 103 | Bicester and Woodstock | Calum Alexander Miller | 74,350 | 67.5 | 22.6 | 9.8 | 35.5 | 19.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 247 | 103 | Winchester | Danny Chambers | 78,289 | 72.9 | 24.5 | 3.8 | 49.0 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 252 | 98 | Chesham and Amersham | Sarah Green | 74,889 | 72.7 | 37.6 | 1.3 | 44.1 | 10.9 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 254 | 96 | Didcot and Wantage | Olly Glover | 80,689 | 67.8 | 21.5 | 9.1 | 35.8 | 19.0 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 255 | 95 | Woking | Will Forster | 72,977 | 66.0 | 21.7 | 6.2 | 42.6 | 16.2 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 263 | 87 | Tunbridge Wells | Mike Martin | 78,738 | 68.9 | 22.0 | 7.5 | 38.7 | 18.2 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 270 | 80 | Reigate | Rebecca Paul | 77,101 | 68.9 | 34.8 | 14.2 | 9.7 | 25.6 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 272 | 78 | Horsham | John Milne | 79,150 | 70.1 | 31.8 | 4.2 | 39.0 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 277 | 73 | Hampshire North East | Alex Brewer | 76,975 | 72.2 | 34.6 | 5.3 | 33.6 | 17.6 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 278 | 72 | Henley and Thame | Freddie Van Mierlo | 73,749 | 72.1 | 26.2 | 6.7 | 37.0 | 19.3 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 283 | 68 | Bracknell | Peter Swallow | 71,656 | 61.2 | 25.9 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 28.8 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 284 | 67 | Spelthorne | Lincoln Jopp | 73,782 | 62.6 | 24.7 | 12.7 | 18.5 | 25.5 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 286 | 65 | Aylesbury | Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith | 79,169 | 63.1 | 24.3 | 14.2 | 19.7 | 27.1 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 287 | 64 | Isle of Wight West | Richard Quigley | 55,406 | 61.9 | 21.8 | 20.5 | 10.7 | 33.4 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 287 | 63 | Witney | Charlie Maynard | 75,448 | 67.0 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 33.1 | 20.7 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 287 | 63 | East Grinstead and Uckfield | Mims Davies | 75,385 | 66.8 | 34.2 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 24.8 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 287 | 63 | Lewes | James MacCleary | 76,166 | 69.8 | 20.1 | 7.1 | 41.0 | 20.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 288 | 62 | Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Olivia Bailey | 68,786 | 67.7 | 30.9 | 15.9 | 10.1 | 29.0 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 289 | 61 | Surrey Heath | Al Pinkerton | 71,934 | 66.4 | 30.2 | 3.8 | 39.2 | 17.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 290 | 61 | Gillingham and Rainham | Naushabah Khan | 73,523 | 56.0 | 21.4 | 18.0 | 9.6 | 31.1 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 295 | 56 | Gravesham | Lauren Sullivan | 73,088 | 59.2 | 24.5 | 18.2 | 6.8 | 31.6 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 297 | 54 | Ashford | Sojan Joseph | 76,212 | 61.6 | 20.2 | 19.5 | 8.2 | 33.3 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 297 | 53 | Eastleigh | Liz Jarvis | 69,965 | 66.3 | 25.5 | 8.8 | 29.6 | 22.6 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 298 | 53 | Dover and Deal | Mike Tapp | 76,406 | 62.5 | 16.3 | 22.9 | 8.3 | 36.8 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 303 | 47 | Newbury | Lee Raymond James Dillon | 71,986 | 68.0 | 30.7 | 4.7 | 34.0 | 19.5 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 303 | 47 | Buckinghamshire Mid | Greg Smith | 75,415 | 71.5 | 31.2 | 9.9 | 20.9 | 24.7 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 303 | 47 | Farnham and Bordon | Gregory Stafford | 75,918 | 69.8 | 29.4 | 9.3 | 22.9 | 24.3 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 303 | 47 | Dorking and Horley | Chris Coghlan | 71,850 | 69.5 | 25.6 | 6.5 | 34.6 | 21.6 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 306 | 45 | Folkestone and Hythe | Tony Vaughan | 70,056 | 61.7 | 15.2 | 23.9 | 6.1 | 39.1 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 306 | 44 | Beaconsfield | Joy Morrissey | 72,751 | 65.6 | 33.3 | 8.8 | 20.4 | 24.2 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 314 | 37 | Rochester and Strood | Lauren Rae Edwards | 74,257 | 57.4 | 20.7 | 17.8 | 8.1 | 33.8 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 314 | 36 | Godalming and Ash | Jeremy Hunt | 74,168 | 73.7 | 34.9 | 3.9 | 30.7 | 20.1 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 315 | 36 | Havant | Alan Mak | 72,346 | 58.3 | 22.6 | 15.2 | 9.7 | 31.6 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 316 | 34 | Windsor | Jack Rankin | 73,334 | 61.7 | 38.4 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 26.0 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 317 | 33 | Eastbourne | Josh Babarinde | 72,592 | 62.8 | 20.3 | 5.3 | 40.9 | 22.9 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 319 | 31 | Romsey and Southampton North | Caroline Nokes | 71,871 | 69.6 | 31.6 | 6.0 | 25.2 | 24.0 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 321 | 29 | Chichester | Jessica Brown-Fuller | 78,374 | 66.3 | 20.1 | 6.2 | 38.7 | 24.4 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 323 | 27 | Runnymede and Weybridge | Ben Spencer | 73,610 | 65.6 | 39.2 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 27.1 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 324 | 26 | Hampshire East | Damian Hinds | 71,965 | 69.6 | 29.6 | 7.0 | 24.7 | 25.7 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 325 | 26 | Faversham and Mid Kent | Helen Whately | 74,301 | 62.7 | 30.4 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 31.3 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 325 | 25 | Maidstone and Malling | Helen Grant | 76,449 | 60.7 | 31.3 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 29.5 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 327 | 24 | Chatham and Aylesford | Tristan Osborne | 75,109 | 54.4 | 23.2 | 14.7 | 8.6 | 34.1 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 331 | 19 | Hamble Valley | Paul Holmes | 80,537 | 67.1 | 34.3 | 7.4 | 17.2 | 28.2 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 336 | 15 | Portsmouth North | Amanda Martin | 70,446 | 59.0 | 30.2 | 13.6 | 6.4 | 36.1 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 336 | 14 | Hampshire North West | Kit Malthouse | 78,629 | 64.6 | 43.8 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 30.1 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 339 | 11 | Dartford | Jim Dickson | 75,426 | 59.0 | 39.1 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 33.3 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 340 | 10 | Arundel and South Downs | Andrew Griffith | 77,969 | 70.2 | 42.9 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 31.6 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 10 | Tonbridge | Tom Tugendhat | 72,799 | 69.1 | 43.6 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 31.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 10 | Sussex Weald | Nus Ghani | 72,897 | 67.5 | 36.2 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 32.5 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 10 | Surrey East | Claire Coutinho | 73,307 | 67.1 | 41.9 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 32.4 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 10 | New Forest West | Desmond Swayne | 68,644 | 67.5 | 43.3 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 32.6 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 10 | Sevenoaks | Laura Trott | 73,708 | 67.7 | 41.4 | 5.0 | 11.9 | 31.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 10 | Bexhill and Battle | Kieran Mullan | 72,209 | 66.1 | 39.0 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 35.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 10 | Weald of Kent | Katie Jane Lotte Lam | 75,988 | 66.7 | 43.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 33.7 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 10 | Herne Bay and Sandwich | Roger Gale | 77,841 | 62.7 | 40.4 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 34.8 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 340 | 10 | Fareham and Waterlooville | Suella Braverman | 77,691 | 64.5 | 42.8 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 32.7 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 341 | 10 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Kevin McKenna | 79,067 | 51.9 | 23.6 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 39.3 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 341 | 9 | Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | Ali Griffiths | 77,565 | 61.7 | 38.3 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 34.7 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 344 | 6 | Gosport | Caroline Dinenage | 73,261 | 60.4 | 41.8 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 34.9 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 344 | 6 | New Forest East | Julian Lewis | 70,618 | 64.0 | 42.2 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 34.4 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 344 | 6 | Isle of Wight East | Joe Robertson | 55,855 | 61.0 | 39.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 34.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.