South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	30.6%	30	23.2%	12	8	+4	34
LAB	24.5%	36	14.3%	0	34	-34	2
LIB	21.9%	24	18.5%	0	5	-5	19
Reform	14.0%	0	27.2%	31	0	+31	31
Green	6.9%	1	12.5%	3	0	+3	4
Other	2.1%	0	4.4%	1	0	+1	1

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Oxford East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Isle of Wight East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Isle of Wight East (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Oxford East (prediction: Green).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	Reform Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
24	304	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	71,845	54.8	9.1	25.7	8.5	16.4	31.0	4.7	4.5	LAB	Green
28	300	Reading Central	Matt Rodda	73,600	61.5	14.6	26.1	9.4	17.6	28.3	0.0	3.9	LAB	Green
31	298	Hove and Portslade	Peter Kyle	74,063	70.1	9.6	29.6	7.6	21.6	26.3	0.0	5.3	LAB	LAB
52	276	Slough	Tan Dhesi	81,512	53.1	15.2	18.2	6.5	13.2	18.8	28.2	0.0	LAB	MIN
53	275	Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	Chris Ward	68,784	59.2	14.7	24.0	9.7	19.2	27.7	0.0	4.7	LAB	Green
58	270	Brighton Pavilion	Siân Berry	74,786	70.0	5.5	16.1	4.6	13.0	57.6	0.0	3.2	Green	Green
65	263	Earley and Woodley	Yuan Yang	73,548	62.4	29.0	20.9	14.4	18.5	14.3	0.0	2.9	LAB	CON
68	260	Wycombe	Emma Reynolds	73,846	60.4	21.3	20.4	13.0	18.7	16.0	7.5	3.2	LAB	CON
73	256	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tom Rutland	74,738	65.7	14.3	32.8	6.8	31.5	10.1	0.0	4.5	LAB	LAB
98	231	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	71,171	66.4	17.8	22.6	10.1	24.7	20.9	0.0	3.9	LAB	Reform
107	222	Milton Keynes Central	Emily Darlington	81,078	58.9	21.7	20.0	13.0	23.0	19.5	0.0	2.8	LAB	Reform
108	221	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	73,711	52.8	12.2	23.0	11.7	26.1	21.9	0.0	5.0	LAB	Reform
125	204	Southampton Test	Satvir Kaur	65,520	54.6	12.6	22.4	7.9	26.9	20.9	7.3	1.9	LAB	Reform
128	201	Milton Keynes North	Chris Curtis	70,709	65.0	22.3	21.1	11.4	26.0	16.4	0.0	2.8	LAB	Reform
133	195	Aylesbury	Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith	79,169	63.1	23.2	15.2	20.5	21.2	14.4	4.9	0.6	LAB	CON
135	194	Hastings and Rye	Helena Dollimore	75,939	60.6	14.9	21.8	8.1	27.8	19.9	5.3	2.1	LAB	Reform
138	191	Basingstoke	Luke Murphy	78,487	62.4	21.2	20.5	11.8	26.8	16.5	0.0	3.2	LAB	Reform
141	188	Southampton Itchen	Darren Paffey	68,379	55.7	18.2	22.5	9.0	29.1	15.8	0.0	5.4	LAB	Reform
147	181	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	71,318	64.5	14.7	11.4	33.4	18.5	18.1	0.0	4.0	LIB	LIB
150	179	Worthing West	Beccy Cooper	77,038	66.2	25.4	22.6	7.7	30.0	10.2	0.0	4.1	LAB	Reform
152	177	Banbury	Sean Woodcock	73,193	65.8	27.4	20.4	9.7	27.9	10.1	0.0	4.5	LAB	Reform
157	172	Aldershot	Alex Baker	78,569	61.8	22.0	20.2	12.8	28.1	13.5	0.0	3.5	LAB	Reform
163	165	Maidenhead	Joshua Peter Reynolds	75,687	66.5	36.7	1.8	44.8	10.4	2.9	0.0	3.2	LIB	LIB
172	156	Wokingham	Clive Jones	75,082	71.9	37.2	1.6	44.1	10.9	2.8	0.0	3.3	LIB	LIB
174	154	Sussex Mid	Alison Bennett	75,969	70.2	20.5	11.3	32.8	20.8	11.9	0.0	2.7	LIB	LIB
175	154	Crawley	Peter Lamb	75,569	60.4	19.6	19.0	8.6	28.5	15.4	8.3	0.5	LAB	Reform
185	143	Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Olivia Bailey	68,786	67.7	33.2	16.4	9.4	27.0	9.9	0.0	4.1	LAB	CON
191	138	Dover and Deal	Mike Tapp	76,406	62.5	17.3	22.3	9.2	33.3	11.4	0.8	5.7	LAB	Reform
193	135	Guildford	Zöe Franklin	70,734	68.3	22.1	7.3	37.0	18.8	12.5	0.0	2.2	LIB	LIB
193	135	Winchester	Danny Chambers	78,289	72.9	20.4	6.3	41.5	17.9	11.5	0.0	2.3	LIB	LIB
195	133	Buckingham and Bletchley	Callum Anderson	74,832	63.7	31.4	17.6	7.9	29.4	9.5	0.0	4.2	LAB	CON
196	132	Chesham and Amersham	Sarah Green	74,889	72.7	32.0	4.3	37.6	16.0	4.8	4.7	0.6	LIB	LIB
200	128	Bicester and Woodstock	Calum Alexander Miller	74,350	67.5	21.1	10.2	31.3	22.2	12.5	0.0	2.7	LIB	LIB
200	128	Woking	Will Forster	72,977	66.0	21.4	7.0	38.7	19.2	11.4	0.0	2.3	LIB	LIB
204	125	Thanet East	Polly Billington	74,940	57.0	17.1	21.0	7.2	33.3	15.1	0.0	6.3	LAB	Reform
206	122	East Grinstead and Uckfield	Mims Davies	75,385	66.8	27.8	12.8	16.4	25.5	12.4	0.0	5.1	CON	CON
207	121	Esher and Walton	Monica Harding	74,042	72.8	22.6	6.1	41.5	19.0	8.8	0.0	2.1	LIB	LIB
213	115	Buckinghamshire Mid	Greg Smith	75,415	71.5	27.7	12.3	21.7	25.9	8.6	0.0	3.8	CON	CON
213	115	Tunbridge Wells	Mike Martin	78,738	68.9	21.6	8.4	34.7	22.1	10.7	0.0	2.7	LIB	LIB
215	113	Didcot and Wantage	Olly Glover	80,689	67.8	20.9	9.2	31.7	23.1	12.5	0.0	2.5	LIB	LIB
216	113	Spelthorne	Lincoln Jopp	73,782	62.6	22.7	14.5	18.6	28.7	12.1	0.0	3.5	CON	Reform
217	112	Gillingham and Rainham	Naushabah Khan	73,523	56.0	20.2	19.0	10.0	33.3	13.3	0.0	4.2	LAB	Reform
220	108	Horsham	John Milne	79,150	70.1	31.0	8.3	26.5	22.8	7.9	0.0	3.5	LIB	CON
220	108	Eastbourne	Josh Babarinde	72,592	62.8	19.5	7.7	37.0	22.2	9.2	0.0	4.4	LIB	LIB
222	106	Beaconsfield	Joy Morrissey	72,751	65.6	30.3	11.0	22.1	25.6	7.2	0.0	3.7	CON	CON
222	106	Epsom and Ewell	Helen Maguire	77,530	70.3	27.0	10.8	25.3	25.6	8.2	0.0	3.1	LIB	CON
227	101	Godalming and Ash	Jeremy Hunt	74,168	73.7	35.6	3.8	34.9	18.8	4.2	0.0	2.7	CON	CON
236	93	Isle of Wight West	Richard Quigley	55,406	61.9	19.0	18.5	12.3	34.4	12.8	0.0	2.9	LAB	Reform
242	86	Eastleigh	Liz Jarvis	69,965	66.3	27.6	9.9	23.9	26.3	9.0	0.0	3.4	LIB	CON
243	85	Windsor	Jack Rankin	73,334	61.7	35.5	10.4	14.0	26.9	8.2	2.0	2.9	CON	CON
244	84	Reigate	Rebecca Paul	77,101	68.9	33.5	13.3	9.5	30.1	10.5	0.0	3.1	CON	CON
245	83	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	71,871	69.6	29.9	7.9	26.9	24.9	7.4	0.0	3.0	CON	CON
246	83	Folkestone and Hythe	Tony Vaughan	70,056	61.7	17.1	19.0	7.8	36.3	14.2	0.0	5.6	LAB	Reform
246	82	Surrey Heath	Al Pinkerton	71,934	66.4	30.0	6.7	28.7	24.0	7.0	0.0	3.6	LIB	CON
248	80	Henley and Thame	Freddie Van Mierlo	73,749	72.1	26.9	7.2	28.9	24.6	8.9	0.0	3.6	LIB	LIB
251	78	Maidstone and Malling	Helen Grant	76,449	60.7	24.4	12.8	14.7	30.5	14.1	0.0	3.5	CON	Reform
251	77	Chichester	Jessica Brown-Fuller	78,374	66.3	21.0	6.9	34.5	24.7	8.7	0.0	4.0	LIB	LIB
253	76	Farnham and Bordon	Gregory Stafford	75,918	69.8	26.1	10.0	25.7	28.0	7.7	0.0	2.6	CON	Reform
254	75	Witney	Charlie Maynard	75,448	67.0	26.3	8.6	25.8	26.6	8.6	0.0	4.1	LIB	Reform
254	74	Dorking and Horley	Chris Coghlan	71,850	69.5	27.2	7.4	27.7	25.5	8.5	0.0	3.6	LIB	LIB
255	74	Chatham and Aylesford	Tristan Osborne	75,109	54.4	20.4	16.4	9.6	34.6	13.0	3.5	2.6	LAB	Reform
255	73	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	71,965	69.6	27.5	8.5	26.3	27.0	7.4	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
255	73	Newbury	Lee Raymond James Dillon	71,986	68.0	27.2	6.6	29.6	25.5	8.2	0.0	2.9	LIB	LIB
258	70	Hamble Valley	Paul Holmes	80,537	67.1	30.8	9.8	20.1	29.0	7.1	0.0	3.2	CON	CON
258	70	Hampshire North East	Alex Brewer	76,975	72.2	27.4	7.8	28.6	27.1	6.3	0.0	2.7	LIB	LIB
260	68	Dartford	Jim Dickson	75,426	59.0	36.4	13.1	4.6	32.6	8.5	0.0	4.9	LAB	CON
261	68	Ashford	Sojan Joseph	76,212	61.6	18.1	15.9	9.8	35.4	16.7	0.0	4.0	LAB	Reform
264	65	Gravesham	Lauren Sullivan	73,088	59.2	31.9	15.6	4.9	35.5	7.5	0.0	4.6	LAB	Reform
271	58	Rochester and Strood	Lauren Rae Edwards	74,257	57.4	20.2	16.2	8.7	37.9	12.2	3.4	1.4	LAB	Reform
274	54	Bracknell	Peter Swallow	71,656	61.2	39.6	10.5	5.4	33.5	6.5	0.0	4.4	LAB	CON
274	54	Sevenoaks	Laura Trott	73,708	67.7	31.8	8.6	17.9	31.6	6.2	0.0	4.0	CON	CON
274	54	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	78,629	64.6	42.1	9.0	7.4	32.0	5.9	0.0	3.7	CON	CON
280	48	Runnymede and Weybridge	Ben Spencer	73,610	65.6	42.0	7.7	9.9	31.6	5.4	0.0	3.5	CON	CON
280	48	Fareham and Waterlooville	Suella Braverman	77,691	64.5	37.3	9.2	10.4	33.9	5.3	0.0	3.9	CON	CON
284	44	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,644	67.5	38.0	9.2	9.3	34.6	5.0	0.0	3.9	CON	CON
296	33	Herne Bay and Sandwich	Roger Gale	77,841	62.7	31.3	12.2	6.1	40.3	6.4	0.0	3.8	CON	Reform
296	32	Tonbridge	Tom Tugendhat	72,799	69.1	40.5	6.6	5.0	34.8	8.9	0.0	4.2	CON	CON
297	32	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Kevin McKenna	79,067	51.9	19.0	14.2	8.6	42.4	10.0	0.0	5.8	LAB	Reform
297	31	Arundel and South Downs	Andrew Griffith	77,969	70.2	38.4	7.0	8.4	35.2	7.6	0.0	3.4	CON	CON
299	30	Havant	Alan Mak	72,346	58.3	29.5	11.0	5.0	39.6	7.0	8.0	0.0	CON	Reform
299	29	Lewes	James MacCleary	76,166	69.8	7.2	2.6	51.7	31.2	4.8	0.0	2.5	LIB	LIB
299	29	Bexhill and Battle	Kieran Mullan	72,209	66.1	39.0	8.7	4.3	37.8	4.8	0.0	5.4	CON	CON
299	29	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,261	60.4	41.7	7.6	5.4	36.9	4.5	0.0	4.0	CON	CON
299	29	Sussex Weald	Nus Ghani	72,897	67.5	40.2	6.2	7.3	35.6	5.9	0.0	4.8	CON	CON
299	29	Portsmouth North	Amanda Martin	70,446	59.0	39.4	8.9	4.1	38.5	5.5	0.0	3.6	LAB	CON
300	28	Weald of Kent	Katie Jane Lotte Lam	75,988	66.7	39.4	8.0	5.2	37.9	5.7	0.0	3.9	CON	CON
302	27	Faversham and Mid Kent	Helen Whately	74,301	62.7	36.7	8.8	4.6	38.9	6.9	0.0	4.2	CON	Reform
304	24	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	70,618	64.0	40.9	6.4	7.3	36.7	4.9	0.0	3.8	CON	CON
304	24	Surrey East	Claire Coutinho	73,307	67.1	40.0	6.6	7.7	37.0	5.3	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
305	24	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Ali Griffiths	77,565	61.7	38.7	8.4	4.8	39.2	4.4	0.0	4.5	CON	Reform
313	16	Isle of Wight East	Joe Robertson	55,855	61.0	36.5	6.4	4.7	40.0	7.8	0.0	4.5	CON	Reform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.