South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 51.5%02-271
LAB 28.6%8 27.6%20+210
LIB 10.5%2 10.6%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 5.3%00+00
Green 3.1%1 4.2%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 0.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Wycombe (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
57523Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.818.964.19.23.14.50.00.00.2LABLAB
101479Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.628.563.12.33.12.80.00.00.1LABLAB
108472Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.228.661.92.55.51.20.00.00.3LABLAB
151429Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.831.157.64.13.51.30.01.70.6LABLAB
172408Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.535.257.33.03.11.20.00.00.2LABLAB
232347Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.416.325.80.14.253.40.00.00.3GreenGreen
236344Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.139.248.06.23.23.20.00.00.3LABLAB
248332Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.934.540.017.35.52.70.00.00.0LABLAB
263317Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.741.644.08.12.93.30.00.00.0LABLAB
267313Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.243.545.53.15.32.60.00.00.0CONLAB
272308Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.943.845.23.55.91.20.00.00.3CONLAB
285295Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.744.543.83.05.82.90.00.00.0CONCON
289291Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.544.443.44.05.22.90.00.00.1CONCON
301279Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.547.544.73.82.91.10.00.00.0CONCON
303277Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.545.842.35.92.93.00.00.00.0CONCON
320260Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.345.938.34.86.03.60.01.10.3CONCON
332248Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.447.036.77.85.23.30.00.00.0CONCON
333247Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.749.339.02.66.22.90.00.00.0CONCON
334246Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.847.736.93.19.22.80.00.00.2CONCON
352228Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.349.734.86.16.13.10.00.00.2CONCON
361219Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.051.335.02.38.52.60.00.00.2CONCON
365215Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.252.535.52.56.72.60.00.00.2CONCON
368212Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.852.435.12.97.32.20.00.00.1CONCON
374206Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.451.233.15.76.13.30.00.00.6CONCON
379201Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.151.732.75.67.12.80.00.00.1CONCON
384196Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.152.332.25.55.94.10.00.00.0CONCON
386194Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.553.233.03.37.62.80.00.00.1CONCON
392188Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.753.932.72.58.12.50.00.00.2CONCON
394186Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.252.030.67.56.63.30.00.00.0CONCON
399181Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.154.532.22.77.82.60.00.00.2CONCON
405175Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.251.929.09.75.63.40.00.00.4CONCON
414166Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.051.627.57.27.75.50.00.00.4CONCON
416164Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.054.229.45.57.53.30.00.00.0CONCON
420160Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.551.125.814.64.93.50.00.00.0CONCON
433147Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.348.222.03.75.518.40.02.10.0CONCON
435145Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.655.829.27.56.01.20.00.00.3CONCON
440140Ashford Damian Green87,39668.555.928.85.26.63.40.00.00.0CONCON
441138Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.739.312.043.83.91.00.00.00.0LIBLIB
443137Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.957.129.52.83.52.40.04.20.6CONCON
451129Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.551.122.817.65.23.10.00.00.2CONCON
454126Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.153.925.59.96.24.00.00.00.5CONCON
455125Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.547.419.025.75.52.40.00.00.0CONCON
459121Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.753.624.116.02.93.40.00.00.0CONCON
463117Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.653.924.012.85.33.80.00.00.3CONCON
471109Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.154.323.711.05.85.20.00.00.0CONCON
48595Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.755.923.96.66.63.00.04.10.0CONCON
48694Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.653.321.116.46.22.90.00.00.1CONCON
48991Havant Alan Mak72,46463.956.724.36.18.23.80.00.00.9CONCON
49090Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.156.524.012.52.94.00.00.00.0CONCON
49387Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.058.926.14.86.83.20.00.00.2CONCON
49585Witney Robert Courts82,72773.652.519.720.54.52.80.00.00.0CONCON
49882Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.957.924.97.36.23.70.00.00.0CONCON
49981Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.558.025.16.66.44.00.00.00.0CONCON
50574Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.941.07.746.92.51.80.00.00.0LIBLIB
50872Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.651.518.023.93.13.20.00.00.2CONCON
51763Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.758.923.77.66.33.50.00.00.0CONCON
52060Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.557.121.411.35.74.40.00.00.1CONCON
52159Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.759.924.26.95.63.40.00.00.0CONCON
52357Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.446.410.639.42.61.00.00.00.0CONCON
52456Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.956.520.612.45.84.20.00.00.4CONCON
52555Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.754.118.221.33.13.10.00.00.2CONCON
53248Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.259.022.59.85.43.40.00.00.0CONCON
53446Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.955.518.717.45.03.00.00.00.4CONCON
53644Henley John Howell74,98776.156.019.014.95.24.50.00.00.3CONCON
53743Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.358.221.110.45.94.30.00.00.0CONCON
53941Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.659.321.78.05.75.30.00.00.0CONCON
54238Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.357.619.613.05.74.10.00.00.0CONCON
54436Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.256.618.310.56.72.90.05.00.0CONCON
54832Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.849.010.034.63.92.50.00.00.1CONCON
54931Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.760.621.36.76.25.20.00.00.0CONCON
55030Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.361.321.910.12.93.80.00.00.0CONCON
55822Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.452.711.99.94.51.00.020.00.0CONCON
55921Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.160.719.98.46.64.40.00.00.0CONCON
56119New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.859.618.815.22.93.50.00.00.0CONCON
56317Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.861.120.010.92.95.00.00.00.0CONCON
56416Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.362.220.48.05.83.60.00.00.0CONCON
56713Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.461.718.411.34.92.80.00.50.5CONCON
57010Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.760.616.115.23.24.40.00.00.4CONCON
5728Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.458.413.421.42.93.60.00.00.2CONCON
5737New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.163.818.69.73.34.20.00.00.4CONCON
5746Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.062.717.410.95.53.50.00.00.0CONCON
5755Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.158.813.219.45.13.60.00.00.0CONCON
5764Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.462.516.412.24.93.70.00.00.3CONCON
5791Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.262.10.00.010.117.10.010.70.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.