South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 51.8%02-271
LAB 28.6%8 27.4%20+210
LIB 10.5%2 11.5%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 3.7%00+00
Green 3.1%1 3.9%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 1.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
57516Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.819.263.910.11.54.20.00.01.1LABLAB
101472Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.628.962.83.31.52.50.00.01.0LABLAB
107466Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.228.961.63.43.80.80.00.01.4LABLAB
148425Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.831.457.45.01.50.80.01.72.1LABLAB
167406Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.535.657.04.01.50.80.00.01.1LABLAB
222350Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.416.625.51.02.553.10.00.01.3GreenGreen
227346Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.139.547.77.11.52.80.00.01.3LABLAB
239334Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.934.839.718.34.02.40.00.00.7LABLAB
253320Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.742.043.79.01.53.10.00.00.7LABLAB
258315Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.243.845.24.03.92.40.00.00.7CONLAB
263310Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.944.144.94.44.20.80.00.01.4CONLAB
276297Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.744.843.63.94.32.70.00.00.7CONCON
280293Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.544.743.24.93.72.60.00.00.9CONCON
292281Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.547.944.44.71.50.80.00.00.7CONCON
294279Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.546.242.06.91.52.70.00.00.7CONCON
310263Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.346.238.05.84.23.20.01.11.5CONCON
322251Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.447.336.48.83.83.00.00.00.7CONCON
323250Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.749.638.73.64.82.60.00.00.7CONCON
324249Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.848.136.64.07.52.50.00.01.3CONCON
341232Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.350.034.57.14.52.80.00.01.1CONCON
349224Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.051.634.73.26.92.30.00.01.2CONCON
354219Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.252.935.23.55.02.30.00.01.1CONCON
357216Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.852.734.83.85.81.90.00.00.9CONCON
363210Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.451.532.86.64.12.80.00.02.2CONCON
368205Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.152.132.46.55.62.50.00.01.0CONCON
373200Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.152.731.96.54.53.80.00.00.7CONCON
375198Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.553.532.74.36.02.50.00.00.9CONCON
381192Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.754.332.43.56.52.10.00.01.3CONCON
383190Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.252.330.38.45.23.10.00.00.7CONCON
391182Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.154.831.93.66.22.30.00.01.1CONCON
397176Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.252.328.710.63.72.90.00.01.7CONCON
406167Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.052.027.28.25.95.10.00.01.7CONCON
408165Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.054.529.26.56.13.00.00.00.7CONCON
412161Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.551.525.615.53.53.30.00.00.7CONCON
423150Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.348.621.74.74.118.20.02.10.7CONCON
425148Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.656.128.98.54.20.80.00.01.5CONCON
430143Ashford Damian Green87,39668.556.328.56.25.23.20.00.00.7CONCON
430142Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.739.711.844.62.60.70.00.00.6LIBLIB
433140Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.957.429.33.71.51.90.04.22.0CONCON
442131Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.551.422.618.63.62.80.00.01.0CONCON
444129Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.154.225.210.94.23.50.00.02.0CONCON
446127Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.547.718.726.74.12.10.00.00.7CONCON
450123Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.753.923.816.91.53.10.00.00.7CONCON
452121Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.654.223.713.83.53.40.00.01.4CONCON
461112Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.154.723.411.94.45.00.00.00.7CONCON
47499Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.756.223.67.55.12.80.04.10.7CONCON
47598Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.653.620.817.44.62.60.00.01.0CONCON
47895Havant Alan Mak72,46463.957.024.07.15.83.30.00.02.8CONCON
48093Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.156.923.713.51.53.70.00.00.7CONCON
48390Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.059.225.95.75.12.90.00.01.2CONCON
48687Witney Robert Courts82,72773.652.819.421.53.12.60.00.00.7CONCON
48885Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.958.224.68.34.73.40.00.00.7CONCON
48984Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.558.424.87.54.93.70.00.00.7CONCON
49478Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.941.47.647.71.21.60.00.00.5LIBLIB
49875Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.651.917.824.91.52.90.00.01.1CONCON
50865Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.759.223.48.54.93.30.00.00.7CONCON
51162Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.446.810.540.21.30.70.00.00.6CONCON
51261Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.557.421.112.34.24.20.00.00.8CONCON
51459Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.760.323.97.84.23.10.00.00.7CONCON
51756Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.956.820.413.34.03.80.00.01.7CONCON
51855Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.754.417.922.21.52.70.00.01.2CONCON
52548Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.259.322.210.74.03.10.00.00.7CONCON
52647Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.955.918.418.33.22.60.00.01.5CONCON
52845Henley John Howell74,98776.156.418.815.93.54.10.00.01.4CONCON
52944Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.358.520.911.44.54.10.00.00.7CONCON
53241Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.659.621.48.94.35.10.00.00.7CONCON
53637Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.357.919.314.04.33.80.00.00.7CONCON
53736Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.256.918.011.55.22.70.05.00.7CONCON
53934Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.849.39.835.42.52.20.00.00.8CONCON
54132Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.760.921.07.74.84.90.00.00.7CONCON
54231Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.361.721.611.11.53.50.00.00.7CONCON
54924Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.453.011.810.83.10.70.020.00.6CONCON
55221Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.161.019.69.45.24.10.00.00.7CONCON
55320New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.859.918.516.21.53.30.00.00.7CONCON
55518Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.861.519.811.91.54.70.00.00.7CONCON
55617Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.362.520.18.94.43.30.00.00.7CONCON
55914Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.462.018.112.23.02.40.00.51.8CONCON
56310Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.760.915.916.11.44.00.00.01.7CONCON
5658Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.458.713.222.31.43.30.00.01.1CONCON
5667New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.164.118.410.61.53.80.00.01.6CONCON
5676Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.063.017.111.94.13.20.00.00.7CONCON
5685Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.159.113.020.23.73.30.00.00.6CONCON
5694Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.462.816.213.13.33.40.00.01.3CONCON
5721Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.262.40.00.78.916.80.010.70.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.