South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 50.8%04-469
LAB 28.6%8 29.0%40+412
LIB 10.5%2 10.5%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 4.6%00+00
Green 3.1%1 3.6%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 1.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
57514Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.818.265.59.12.43.80.00.00.9LABLAB
101470Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.627.864.52.32.42.20.00.00.8LABLAB
106465Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.227.963.32.44.60.50.00.01.2LABLAB
149422Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.830.459.04.02.40.50.01.71.9LABLAB
167404Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.534.558.73.02.40.50.00.00.9LABLAB
224346Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.415.627.20.03.452.70.00.01.1GreenGreen
228343Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.138.549.46.12.42.50.00.01.1LABLAB
240331Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.933.841.417.34.92.10.00.00.5LABLAB
255316Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.741.045.48.02.42.80.00.00.5LABLAB
259312Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.242.846.93.04.82.10.00.00.5CONLAB
262309Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.943.146.63.45.10.50.00.01.2CONLAB
277294Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.743.845.22.95.22.30.00.00.5CONLAB
281290Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.543.744.83.94.52.20.00.00.7CONLAB
293278Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.546.846.13.72.40.50.00.00.5CONCON
295276Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.545.243.75.92.42.40.00.00.5CONCON
311260Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.345.239.74.85.12.90.01.11.3CONCON
323248Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.446.338.17.84.62.70.00.00.5CONCON
324247Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.748.640.42.65.72.30.00.00.5CONCON
325246Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.847.038.33.08.42.10.00.01.1CONCON
342229Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.349.036.26.15.42.50.00.00.8CONCON
350221Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.050.636.42.27.72.00.00.01.0CONCON
354217Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.251.936.92.55.92.00.00.00.9CONCON
357214Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.851.736.52.86.61.60.00.00.7CONCON
362209Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.450.534.55.64.92.50.00.02.0CONCON
368203Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.151.034.15.56.42.20.00.00.7CONCON
374197Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.151.633.65.55.43.50.00.00.5CONCON
375196Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.552.534.43.36.92.20.00.00.7CONCON
382189Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.753.334.12.57.31.80.00.01.0CONCON
385186Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.251.332.07.46.02.70.00.00.5CONCON
390181Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.153.833.62.67.12.00.00.00.9CONCON
396175Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.251.330.49.64.62.60.00.01.5CONCON
405166Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.051.028.97.26.74.80.00.01.5CONCON
408163Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.053.530.95.56.92.70.00.00.5CONCON
412159Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.550.427.214.54.42.90.00.00.5CONCON
422149Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.347.523.43.74.917.90.02.10.5CONCON
424147Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.655.130.67.55.10.50.00.01.2CONCON
429142Ashford Damian Green87,39668.555.330.25.26.12.90.00.00.5CONCON
431140Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.956.430.92.72.41.60.04.21.8CONCON
434136Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.738.713.043.83.60.50.00.00.5LIBLIB
439132Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.550.424.217.64.52.50.00.00.8CONCON
442129Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.153.226.99.95.13.20.00.01.8CONCON
444127Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.546.720.425.74.91.80.00.00.5CONCON
448123Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.752.925.515.92.42.80.00.00.5CONCON
451120Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.653.225.412.84.43.10.00.01.2CONCON
458113Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.153.725.110.95.24.60.00.00.5CONCON
47398Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.755.225.36.56.02.40.04.10.5CONCON
47596Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.652.622.516.45.52.20.00.00.8CONCON
47794Havant Alan Mak72,46463.956.025.76.16.72.90.00.02.6CONCON
47893Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.155.925.412.52.43.40.00.00.5CONCON
48190Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.058.227.54.76.02.60.00.01.0CONCON
48388Witney Robert Courts82,72773.651.821.120.54.02.20.00.00.5CONCON
48685Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.957.226.37.35.63.10.00.00.5CONCON
48784Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.557.426.56.55.83.40.00.00.5CONCON
49675Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.650.819.423.92.42.60.00.00.9CONCON
49971Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.940.48.546.92.41.40.00.00.5LIBLIB
50566Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.758.225.17.55.72.90.00.00.5CONCON
51061Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.556.422.811.35.13.80.00.00.6CONCON
51160Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.759.325.66.85.12.80.00.00.5CONCON
51358Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.955.822.012.34.83.50.00.01.5CONCON
51457Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.753.419.621.32.42.40.00.01.0CONCON
51754Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.445.811.639.32.40.50.00.00.5CONCON
52150Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.258.323.99.74.92.80.00.00.5CONCON
52447Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.954.920.117.34.12.30.00.01.3CONCON
52546Henley John Howell74,98776.155.420.414.94.43.80.00.01.1CONCON
52744Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.357.522.510.45.33.80.00.00.5CONCON
52942Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.658.623.17.95.14.70.00.00.5CONCON
53338Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.356.921.013.05.13.50.00.00.5CONCON
53536Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.255.919.610.56.12.40.05.00.5CONCON
53833Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.759.922.76.75.64.60.00.00.5CONCON
53932Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.848.310.934.53.62.00.00.00.7CONCON
54031Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.360.723.310.12.43.20.00.00.5CONCON
54724Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.160.021.38.46.13.80.00.00.5CONCON
54922New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.858.920.215.22.43.00.00.00.5CONCON
55120Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.860.521.410.92.44.40.00.00.5CONCON
55219Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.452.013.09.94.20.50.020.00.5CONCON
55417Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.361.521.87.95.23.00.00.00.5CONCON
55714Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.461.019.711.23.92.10.00.51.6CONCON
56110Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.759.917.415.22.43.70.00.01.5CONCON
5638New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.163.120.09.62.43.40.00.01.4CONCON
5647Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.457.714.521.42.43.00.00.01.0CONCON
5656Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.062.018.710.95.02.90.00.00.5CONCON
5665Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.158.114.319.34.73.10.00.00.5CONCON
5674Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.461.817.712.14.23.10.00.01.1CONCON
5701Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.261.40.40.010.316.80.010.70.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.