South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 51.5%02-271
LAB 28.6%8 27.6%20+210
LIB 10.5%2 10.6%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 5.3%00+00
Green 3.1%1 4.2%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 0.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Wycombe (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
57523Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.818.964.
101479Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.628.563.
108472Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.228.661.
151429Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.831.
172408Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.535.
232347Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.416.325.
236344Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.
248332Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.934.540.
263317Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.741.644.
267313Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.243.545.
272308Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.943.845.
285295Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.744.543.
289291Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.544.443.
301279Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.547.544.
303277Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.545.842.
320260Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.345.938.
332248Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.447.
333247Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.749.339.
334246Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.847.736.
352228Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.349.734.
361219Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.051.335.
365215Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.252.535.
368212Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.852.435.
374206Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.451.
379201Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.151.732.
384196Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.152.332.
386194Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.553.
392188Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.753.932.
394186Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.
399181Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.154.532.
405175Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.251.929.
414166Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.051.627.
416164Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.
420160Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.551.125.814.
433147Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.348.
435145Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.655.829.
440140Ashford Damian Green87,39668.555.928.
441138Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.739.312.
443137Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.957.
451129Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.551.122.817.
454126Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.153.925.
455125Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.547.419.
459121Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.753.624.
463117Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.653.924.
471109Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.154.323.711.
48595Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.755.923.
48694Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.653.321.
48991Havant Alan Mak72,46463.956.724.
49090Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.156.524.
49387Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.058.926.
49585Witney Robert Courts82,72773.652.519.720.
49882Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.957.924.
49981Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.558.
50574Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.941.07.746.
50872Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.651.518.
51763Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.758.923.
52060Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.557.121.411.
52159Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.759.924.
52357Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.446.410.639.
52456Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.956.520.612.
52555Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.754.
53248Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.
53446Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.955.518.717.
53644Henley John Howell74,98776.
53743Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.358.
53941Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.659.321.
54238Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.357.619.613.
54436Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.256.618.310.
54832Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.849.
54931Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.760.621.
55030Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.361.321.910.
55822Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.452.711.
55921Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.160.719.
56119New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.859.618.815.
56317Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.861.
56416Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.362.
56713Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.461.718.411.
57010Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.760.616.
5728Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.458.413.421.
5737New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.163.818.
5746Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.062.717.410.
5755Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.158.813.
5764Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.462.516.412.
5791Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.