South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 49.3%01-146
LAB 29.1%7 27.7%00+07
LIB 15.0%1 15.3%10+12
UKIP 1.1%0 2.4%00+00
Green 2.3%0 3.4%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
33541Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.012.464.
126448Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.528.658.
129445Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.730.860.
143431Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.232.359.
195379Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58458.337.851.
218356Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.739.849.
250324Stroud David Drew82,84977.043.945.
284290Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.845.442.
292282Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.846.342.
302272Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.842.336.
307267Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.947.940.
314260Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.248.338.
318256Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.549.839.
332242Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.551.536.
333241Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.252.838.
339235Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.249.834.
344230Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.851.434.
352222Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.
354220Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.751.633.
367207Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.751.
368206St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.047.527.521.
368205Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.333.713.647.
379195Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.854.
408166Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.353.
410164Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.951.625.313.
411163Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.852.025.412.
417157Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.
424149St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.941.
425149Poole Robert Syms73,81167.555.927.
441133Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.257.828.
459115Salisbury John Glen72,89273.
461113Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.543.711.738.
465109Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.053.421.
472102Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.053.420.720.
473101Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.257.925.
47995Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.659.325.
48391Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.451.016.825.
48589Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.954.420.
49381Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.852.718.
50569Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.344.68.842.
50767Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.346.510.
50866Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.453.416.923.
51064Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.850.814.
51658Wells James Heappey82,44973.848.010.837.
52153Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.048.611.
52252Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.557.920.313.
53242Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.354.916.
54331Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.652.411.530.
54529Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.160.719.
54925Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.258.616.616.
55123Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.653.
55222Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.258.316.
56212Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.257.212.327.
56311Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.062.817.
5722Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.067.518.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.