South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 46.9%03-344
LAB 29.1%7 29.5%20+29
LIB 15.0%1 14.9%10+12
UKIP 1.1%0 4.0%00+00
Green 2.3%0 3.1%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 1.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
33543Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.010.666.27.22.013.50.00.00.5LABLAB
125451Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.526.160.43.36.03.50.00.00.7LABLAB
130446Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.728.362.32.82.92.70.00.01.0LABLAB
145431Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.229.861.12.72.93.00.00.00.5LABLAB
201375Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58458.335.353.72.55.52.10.00.01.0LABLAB
225351Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.737.351.05.22.93.20.00.00.5LABLAB
256320Stroud David Drew82,84977.041.447.43.24.53.10.00.00.5LABLAB
290286Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.842.944.66.12.93.00.00.00.5CONLAB
297279Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.843.843.94.05.42.30.00.00.5CONLAB
306270Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.839.838.014.84.52.30.00.00.5CONCON
313263Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.945.442.16.02.93.10.00.00.5CONCON
319257Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.245.840.55.05.72.20.00.00.9CONCON
325251Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.547.341.22.07.02.00.00.00.5CONCON
338238Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.549.038.83.55.72.40.00.00.5CONCON
339237Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.250.339.93.62.92.90.00.00.5CONCON
345231Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.247.335.96.55.83.40.00.01.1CONCON
349227Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.848.936.56.52.93.70.00.01.4CONCON
358218Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.049.736.33.95.33.30.00.01.6CONCON
360216Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.749.135.18.22.93.20.00.01.6CONCON
373203Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.748.633.09.16.42.40.00.00.5CONCON
375201St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.045.029.421.33.00.90.00.00.5CONCON
375200Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.331.215.147.13.03.10.00.00.5LIBLIB
384192Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.851.634.05.82.95.20.00.00.5CONCON
412164Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.350.529.010.86.52.70.00.00.5CONCON
413163Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.949.127.212.85.45.00.00.00.5CONCON
415161Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.849.527.311.65.23.50.01.51.3CONCON
420156Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.049.627.09.62.94.00.06.30.5CONCON
429147Poole Robert Syms73,81167.553.429.88.82.93.50.00.01.6CONCON
431144St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.938.614.642.43.00.90.00.00.5CONLIB
443133Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.255.330.35.15.83.00.00.00.5CONCON
462114Salisbury John Glen72,89273.153.525.911.15.23.00.00.01.3CONCON
466110Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.050.923.019.33.03.40.00.00.5CONCON
470106Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.541.213.137.95.12.20.00.00.5CONCON
472104Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.050.922.620.43.02.70.00.00.5CONCON
475101Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.255.426.99.72.93.50.00.01.6CONCON
48195Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.656.827.58.02.94.40.00.00.5CONCON
48789Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.951.922.117.53.03.60.00.01.8CONCON
48987Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.448.518.625.05.42.20.00.00.5CONCON
49581Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.850.220.025.43.00.90.00.00.5CONCON
50967Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.344.011.72.44.90.90.035.20.9CONCON
51066Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.342.19.942.03.02.50.00.00.5CONCON
51165Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.450.918.723.33.03.60.00.00.5CONCON
51462Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.848.315.727.55.32.70.00.00.5CONCON
52155Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.555.422.213.45.03.50.00.00.5CONCON
52452Wells James Heappey82,44973.845.512.137.53.00.90.00.01.0CONCON
52848Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.046.112.436.43.00.90.00.01.1CONCON
53541Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.352.417.720.83.04.10.00.02.1CONCON
54630Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.158.221.39.26.34.00.00.00.9CONCON
54729Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.649.912.929.53.02.70.00.02.0CONCON
55224Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.256.118.316.25.03.80.00.00.7CONCON
55323Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.255.817.917.64.63.00.00.01.2CONCON
55917Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.650.712.431.33.02.10.00.00.5CONCON
56412Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.254.713.727.33.00.90.00.00.5CONCON
56511Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.060.319.013.43.03.80.00.00.5CONCON
5742Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.065.020.27.92.93.50.00.00.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.