| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 21.7% | 1 | 9 | -8 | 3 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 17.9% | 0 | 14 | -14 | 10 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 21.1% | 0 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 27.9% | 25 | 0 | +25 | 25 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 9.9% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 1.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Bristol North West' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Dorset West', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dorset West (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 134 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 12.4 | 36.0 | 11.7 | 21.1 | 17.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 75 | 111 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 8.8 | 28.4 | 10.5 | 18.8 | 30.6 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Green |
| 76 | 111 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 9.8 | 29.3 | 8.7 | 27.8 | 23.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 77 | 109 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 12.5 | 31.7 | 8.1 | 33.5 | 11.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 79 | 108 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 12.0 | 31.0 | 8.6 | 27.4 | 18.6 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 107 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 13.3 | 32.1 | 11.6 | 25.4 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 106 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 4.8 | 23.6 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 53.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | Green | Green |
| 90 | 97 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 17.8 | 35.2 | 9.4 | 24.8 | 11.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 101 | 86 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 16.8 | 32.9 | 8.3 | 31.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 102 | 85 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 17.6 | 33.6 | 10.4 | 26.6 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 112 | 75 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 17.5 | 31.8 | 14.1 | 25.7 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 115 | 71 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 15.4 | 28.9 | 10.5 | 35.0 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 121 | 66 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 19.0 | 30.2 | 10.0 | 29.4 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 137 | 49 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 18.5 | 23.0 | 8.3 | 41.0 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 140 | 47 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 24.2 | 27.9 | 10.8 | 26.1 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 141 | 45 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 19.7 | 22.6 | 19.4 | 29.5 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 1.6 | CON | Reform |
| 141 | 45 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 21.5 | 24.3 | 10.7 | 32.4 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 143 | 43 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 32.7 | 18.6 | 13.2 | 0.5 | 2.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 144 | 42 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 23.7 | 25.3 | 8.6 | 31.4 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 145 | 41 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 22.0 | 23.5 | 12.1 | 30.0 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 145 | 41 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 21.6 | 22.3 | 11.9 | 31.0 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 145 | 41 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 11.4 | 34.2 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 145 | 41 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 21.7 | 21.4 | 15.8 | 32.2 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 146 | 40 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 23.3 | 21.2 | 15.6 | 30.7 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 147 | 40 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 28.1 | 25.7 | 14.8 | 20.6 | 9.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 148 | 38 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 25.2 | 22.1 | 15.7 | 26.4 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | CON | Reform |
| 148 | 38 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 25.7 | 22.4 | 8.7 | 30.7 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 149 | 37 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 25.3 | 21.7 | 13.4 | 29.4 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 151 | 35 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 17.1 | 13.1 | 28.2 | 28.8 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LIB | Reform |
| 153 | 33 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 25.1 | 19.8 | 13.1 | 32.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 1.6 | CON | Reform |
| 156 | 30 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 22.7 | 16.5 | 14.2 | 37.2 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | CON | Reform |
| 160 | 26 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 25.9 | 17.9 | 14.8 | 31.4 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 1.8 | CON | Reform |
| 160 | 26 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 16.4 | 8.2 | 37.6 | 30.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 160 | 26 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 22.7 | 14.3 | 20.7 | 33.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | CON | Reform |
| 161 | 26 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 27.8 | 19.2 | 21.1 | 22.9 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 1.4 | CON | CON |
| 161 | 25 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 26.2 | 17.5 | 17.4 | 30.7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | CON | Reform |
| 161 | 25 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 17.2 | 8.5 | 34.4 | 32.8 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 162 | 24 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 21.9 | 11.4 | 24.9 | 31.4 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LIB | Reform |
| 166 | 20 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 19.6 | 6.6 | 33.8 | 31.0 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 167 | 19 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 21.6 | 7.9 | 35.2 | 25.6 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 171 | 15 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 26.8 | 11.8 | 18.8 | 33.5 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 3.1 | CON | Reform |
| 172 | 15 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 28.8 | 13.5 | 23.9 | 24.1 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | CON | CON |
| 172 | 14 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 22.8 | 7.5 | 30.0 | 32.2 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 172 | 14 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 22.1 | 6.5 | 34.0 | 30.8 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 173 | 13 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 22.7 | 6.7 | 28.3 | 34.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 174 | 12 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 24.1 | 7.8 | 34.2 | 25.5 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 175 | 11 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 24.8 | 8.2 | 32.2 | 25.5 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 175 | 11 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 23.4 | 6.6 | 30.9 | 30.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 175 | 11 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 23.8 | 6.9 | 31.7 | 28.9 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 175 | 11 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 25.5 | 8.2 | 38.7 | 17.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 179 | 7 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 25.4 | 7.0 | 34.6 | 26.2 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 179 | 7 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 27.3 | 8.7 | 30.3 | 26.1 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 179 | 7 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 26.0 | 6.7 | 33.7 | 26.7 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 179 | 7 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 27.7 | 8.2 | 30.5 | 26.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 179 | 7 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 27.0 | 7.4 | 26.9 | 31.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | CON | Reform |
| 181 | 5 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 29.0 | 8.0 | 34.4 | 21.5 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 181 | 5 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 29.9 | 8.3 | 34.0 | 19.2 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 181 | 5 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 29.4 | 7.0 | 38.4 | 16.6 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.