South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	51.4%	47	49.3%	0	1	-1	46
LAB	29.1%	7	27.7%	0	0	+0	7
LIB	15.0%	1	15.3%	1	0	+1	2
UKIP	1.1%	0	2.4%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.3%	0	3.4%	0	0	+0	0
Minor	1.2%	0	2.0%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
33	541	Bristol West	Thangam Debbonaire	92,986	77.0	12.4	64.4	7.5	1.1	13.8	0.0	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
126	448	Bristol South	Karin Smyth	83,009	65.5	28.6	58.5	3.6	4.4	3.8	0.0	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
129	445	Exeter	Ben Bradshaw	77,329	71.7	30.8	60.4	3.1	1.3	3.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
143	431	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	72,414	70.2	32.3	59.2	3.0	1.3	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
195	379	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Luke Pollard	76,584	58.3	37.8	51.8	2.8	3.9	2.4	0.0	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
218	356	Bristol North West	Darren Jones	75,431	71.7	39.8	49.1	5.5	1.3	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
250	324	Stroud	David Drew	82,849	77.0	43.9	45.5	3.5	3.0	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
284	290	Camborne and Redruth	George Eustice	67,462	71.8	45.4	42.7	6.4	1.3	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
292	282	Swindon South	Robert Buckland	72,391	70.8	46.3	42.1	4.4	3.8	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
302	272	Truro and Falmouth	Sarah Newton	74,691	75.8	42.3	36.1	15.2	2.9	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
307	267	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Jack Lopresti	72,569	69.9	47.9	40.2	6.3	1.3	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
314	260	Gloucester	Richard Graham	82,963	65.2	48.3	38.6	5.3	4.1	2.5	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
318	256	Plymouth Moor View	Johnny Mercer	69,342	65.5	49.8	39.3	2.3	5.4	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
332	242	Swindon North	Justin Tomlinson	80,194	68.5	51.5	36.9	3.9	4.2	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
333	241	Kingswood	Chris Skidmore	69,426	70.2	52.8	38.0	3.9	1.3	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
339	235	Bournemouth East	Tobias Ellwood	74,591	65.2	49.8	34.0	6.8	4.2	3.7	0.0	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
344	230	Bournemouth West	Conor Burns	73,195	60.8	51.4	34.7	6.9	1.3	4.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
352	222	Forest of Dean	Mark Harper	70,898	73.0	52.2	34.4	4.2	3.7	3.5	0.0	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
354	220	Somerset North East	Jacob Rees-Mogg	71,350	75.7	51.6	33.2	8.6	1.3	3.5	0.0	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
367	207	Weston-Super-Mare	John Penrose	82,160	68.7	51.1	31.2	9.5	4.7	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
368	206	St Austell and Newquay	Steve Double	78,618	69.0	47.5	27.5	21.8	1.3	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
368	205	Bath	Wera Hobhouse	66,769	74.3	33.7	13.6	47.5	1.2	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.7	LIB	LIB
379	195	Dorset South	Richard Drax	72,323	71.8	54.1	32.1	6.2	1.3	5.5	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
408	166	Bridgwater and West Somerset	Ian Liddell-Grainger	89,294	65.3	53.0	27.1	11.2	4.9	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
410	164	Totnes	Sarah Wollaston	68,913	72.9	51.6	25.3	13.2	3.8	5.3	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
411	163	Devon Central	Mel Stride	74,370	77.8	52.0	25.4	12.0	3.6	3.8	0.0	1.5	1.6	CON	CON
417	157	Somerset North	Liam Fox	80,538	77.0	52.1	25.1	9.9	1.3	4.3	0.0	6.3	0.8	CON	CON
424	149	St Ives	Derek Thomas	67,462	75.9	41.1	13.2	42.8	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	CON	LIB
425	149	Poole	Robert Syms	73,811	67.5	55.9	27.9	9.2	1.3	3.8	0.0	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
441	133	Devon South West	Gary Streeter	71,262	74.2	57.8	28.4	5.5	4.2	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
459	115	Salisbury	John Glen	72,892	73.1	56.0	24.0	11.5	3.6	3.3	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
461	113	Devon North	Peter Heaton-Jones	75,784	73.5	43.7	11.7	38.3	3.2	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
465	109	Cornwall South East	Sheryll Murray	71,896	74.0	53.4	21.1	19.7	1.3	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
472	102	Newton Abbot	Anne Marie Morris	71,722	72.0	53.4	20.7	20.8	1.3	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
473	101	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	76,898	71.2	57.9	25.0	10.1	1.3	3.8	0.0	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
479	95	Tiverton and Honiton	Neil Parish	80,731	71.6	59.3	25.6	8.3	1.3	4.7	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
483	91	Torbay	Kevin Foster	75,936	67.4	51.0	16.8	25.4	3.6	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
485	89	Devon West and Torridge	Geoffrey Cox	80,527	73.9	54.4	20.2	18.0	1.3	3.9	0.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
493	81	Chippenham	Michelle Donelan	76,432	74.8	52.7	18.2	25.9	1.3	1.1	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
505	69	Cheltenham	Alex Chalk	78,875	72.3	44.6	8.8	42.4	1.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
507	67	Devon East	Hugo Swire	82,382	73.3	46.5	10.5	2.7	3.1	0.9	0.0	35.2	1.1	CON	CON
508	66	Dorset West	Oliver Letwin	79,043	75.4	53.4	16.9	23.8	1.3	3.8	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
510	64	Taunton Deane	Rebecca Pow	85,466	73.8	50.8	14.2	27.9	3.5	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
516	58	Wells	James Heappey	82,449	73.8	48.0	10.8	37.9	1.1	0.9	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
521	53	Cornwall North	Scott Mann	68,850	74.0	48.6	11.2	36.8	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
522	52	Tewkesbury	Laurence Robertson	81,442	72.5	57.9	20.3	13.8	3.4	3.8	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
532	42	Somerton and Frome	David Warburton	84,435	75.3	54.9	16.0	21.2	1.2	4.3	0.0	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
543	31	Yeovil	Marcus Fysh	82,911	71.6	52.4	11.5	30.0	1.1	2.7	0.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
545	29	Devizes	Claire Perry	72,184	70.1	60.7	19.4	9.6	4.7	4.3	0.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
549	25	Cotswolds, The	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	80,446	74.2	58.6	16.6	16.6	3.3	4.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
551	23	Thornbury and Yate	Luke Hall	67,927	74.6	53.2	11.1	31.7	1.1	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
552	22	Wiltshire North	James Gray	71,408	75.2	58.3	16.2	18.0	2.9	3.2	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
562	12	Dorset Mid and Poole North	Michael Tomlinson	65,054	74.2	57.2	12.3	27.7	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
563	11	Dorset North	Simon Hoare	76,385	73.0	62.8	17.2	13.8	1.3	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
572	2	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	70,329	72.0	67.5	18.4	8.2	1.3	3.8	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.