South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	52.8%	48	28.1%	0	29	-29	19
LAB	23.4%	6	32.3%	19	0	+19	25
LIB	18.2%	1	19.6%	10	0	+10	11
Reform	0.4%	0	13.1%	0	0	+0	0
Green	3.8%	0	6.6%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.6%	0	0.4%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Tiverton and Honiton, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Kingswood (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
116	450	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	73,867	70.6	13.7	58.5	5.7	13.0	8.5	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
133	433	Bristol West	Thangam Debbonaire	99,253	76.1	4.1	47.2	5.5	9.4	33.1	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
140	426	Exeter	Ben Bradshaw	82,054	68.5	15.1	57.3	4.4	11.7	10.9	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
141	425	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Luke Pollard	77,852	68.3	17.6	59.8	4.4	11.5	6.2	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
153	413	Bristol South	Karin Smyth	84,079	65.6	13.3	53.4	7.7	14.1	10.9	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
211	355	Bristol North West	Darren Jones	76,273	73.3	20.3	53.3	7.3	11.4	7.4	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
287	279	Stroud	Siobhan Baillie	84,537	78.0	22.6	46.0	6.2	14.5	10.1	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
295	271	Swindon South	Robert Buckland	73,118	69.4	28.3	50.5	6.1	11.0	3.9	0.0	0.3	CON	LAB
303	263	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Jack Lopresti	74,016	72.6	25.8	47.5	8.8	11.8	5.7	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
313	253	Gloucester	Richard Graham	80,901	66.5	26.6	46.2	9.0	12.7	4.9	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
319	247	Truro and Falmouth	Cherilyn Mackrory	76,719	77.2	24.3	42.9	13.5	12.7	6.3	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
328	238	Kingswood	Chris Skidmore	68,972	71.5	27.8	44.5	7.6	13.4	6.2	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
330	236	Camborne and Redruth	George Eustice	70,250	71.7	26.8	43.3	11.6	13.1	4.9	0.0	0.3	CON	LAB
333	233	Plymouth Moor View	Johnny Mercer	69,430	63.7	30.1	46.1	5.3	13.0	5.1	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
336	230	Bournemouth East	Tobias Ellwood	74,125	66.5	26.3	41.3	9.3	14.2	8.1	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
341	225	Bournemouth West	Conor Burns	74,205	62.0	26.0	40.5	11.8	13.7	7.4	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
348	218	Swindon North	Justin Tomlinson	82,441	66.9	32.0	44.9	5.8	11.7	5.2	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
370	196	Somerset North East	Jacob Rees-Mogg	73,692	76.4	25.4	35.3	19.9	13.0	6.1	0.0	0.3	CON	LAB
386	180	Forest of Dean	Mark Harper	71,438	72.1	28.1	34.9	6.8	17.3	12.3	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
387	179	Weston-Super-Mare	John Penrose	82,526	67.4	30.7	37.4	12.4	13.2	5.9	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
396	170	Dorset South	Richard Drax	73,809	69.2	29.5	35.3	12.4	15.4	6.8	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
398	167	Bath	Wera Hobhouse	67,805	76.9	15.3	20.6	48.1	10.4	5.3	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
410	156	St Austell and Newquay	Steve Double	79,930	69.8	30.7	35.1	14.7	14.3	4.8	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
416	150	Poole	Robert Syms	73,989	68.2	30.1	33.5	14.3	15.2	6.3	0.0	0.7	CON	LAB
418	148	Devon Central	Mel Stride	74,926	77.5	27.9	31.1	20.5	13.5	6.8	0.0	0.2	CON	LAB
419	147	Somerset North	Liam Fox	80,194	77.4	28.8	32.0	16.3	14.2	8.3	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
454	112	Newton Abbot	Anne Marie Morris	72,529	72.5	28.2	27.9	23.2	14.7	5.5	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
455	111	Devon South West	Gary Streeter	72,535	73.6	33.3	33.0	13.1	13.9	6.2	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
459	107	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	77,969	70.4	33.0	32.2	15.6	13.3	5.6	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
466	100	Bridgwater and West Somerset	Ian Liddell-Grainger	85,327	67.6	33.2	31.5	16.4	13.8	4.9	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
480	86	Salisbury	John Glen	74,556	72.1	33.8	30.9	17.4	12.1	5.5	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
481	85	Cornwall South East	Sheryll Murray	71,825	74.7	33.1	30.2	18.5	13.4	4.7	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
489	76	St Ives	Derek Thomas	68,795	74.7	24.1	20.5	34.9	15.2	4.9	0.0	0.4	CON	LIB
492	74	Totnes	Anthony Mangnall	69,863	74.7	30.3	26.5	25.7	12.8	4.5	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
494	72	Tewkesbury	Laurence Robertson	83,958	72.8	30.9	26.8	21.0	14.0	6.8	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
499	67	Devon West and Torridge	Geoffrey Cox	80,403	74.3	31.7	27.3	18.7	15.7	6.1	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
510	56	Devizes	Danny Kruger	73,372	69.4	35.3	29.3	16.9	12.7	5.6	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
522	43	Chippenham	Michelle Donelan	77,221	73.9	30.8	22.5	30.9	11.7	3.9	0.0	0.3	CON	LIB
522	43	Taunton Deane	Rebecca Pow	88,676	71.9	28.6	20.3	33.8	13.0	3.9	0.0	0.3	CON	LIB
526	40	Torbay	Kevin Foster	75,054	67.2	32.4	23.9	25.1	13.7	4.5	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
530	36	Cotswolds, The	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	81,939	74.7	31.6	23.0	25.7	13.1	6.4	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
533	32	Devon North	Selaine Saxby	75,859	73.3	28.2	19.2	32.7	14.5	5.2	0.0	0.3	CON	LIB
535	31	Wiltshire North	James Gray	73,280	74.7	32.0	22.9	27.5	12.3	5.1	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
537	28	Cheltenham	Alex Chalk	81,044	73.2	25.8	16.6	41.7	11.3	4.3	0.0	0.3	CON	LIB
545	20	Dorset West	Chris Loder	81,897	74.4	30.6	19.8	31.1	12.9	5.4	0.0	0.2	CON	LIB
545	20	Thornbury and Yate	Luke Hall	69,492	75.2	29.7	18.5	35.7	12.0	3.8	0.0	0.2	CON	LIB
548	17	Yeovil	Marcus Fysh	82,468	71.9	30.1	18.0	34.4	13.1	4.2	0.0	0.2	CON	LIB
549	17	Cornwall North	Scott Mann	69,935	73.9	31.7	19.4	31.4	13.9	3.5	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
549	16	Wells	James Heappey	84,124	73.3	30.0	17.7	35.4	12.6	4.1	0.0	0.2	CON	LIB
556	10	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	71,520	72.6	39.5	25.4	14.4	14.5	5.7	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
558	8	Dorset Mid and Poole North	Michael Tomlinson	65,427	74.8	33.4	18.8	30.0	12.7	4.8	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
559	7	Dorset North	Simon Hoare	76,765	73.1	39.1	23.8	20.1	12.2	4.7	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
560	6	Devon East	Simon Jupp	87,168	73.5	39.9	23.9	18.5	13.5	4.0	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
561	4	Somerton and Frome	David Warburton	85,866	75.6	28.0	11.4	39.9	12.8	7.3	0.0	0.5	CON	LIB
563	3	Tiverton and Honiton	Neil Parish	82,953	71.9	34.5	16.1	33.9	11.2	3.9	0.0	0.4	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.