South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 47.7%02-245
LAB 29.1%7 29.5%10+18
LIB 15.0%1 15.0%10+12
UKIP 1.1%0 3.5%00+00
Green 2.3%0 2.8%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 1.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
33538Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.011.266.27.31.613.20.00.00.5LABLAB
124447Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.526.960.53.45.43.10.00.00.7LABLAB
129442Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.729.162.32.82.42.40.00.01.0LABLAB
143428Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.230.661.12.72.42.70.00.00.5LABLAB
195376Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58458.336.153.72.54.91.70.00.00.9LABLAB
218353Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.738.151.05.22.42.80.00.00.5LABLAB
250321Stroud David Drew82,84977.042.247.43.24.02.70.00.00.5LABLAB
284287Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.843.744.66.22.42.70.00.00.5CONLAB
291280Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.844.644.04.14.92.00.00.00.5CONCON
300271Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.840.638.015.04.02.00.00.00.5CONCON
307264Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.946.242.16.02.42.80.00.00.5CONCON
313258Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.246.640.55.05.11.90.00.00.9CONCON
318253Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.548.141.22.06.41.70.00.00.5CONCON
332239Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.549.838.83.65.22.10.00.00.5CONCON
333238Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.251.139.93.62.42.50.00.00.5CONCON
339232Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.248.135.96.55.33.10.00.01.1CONCON
343228Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.849.736.66.62.43.30.00.01.4CONCON
351220Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.050.536.33.94.82.90.00.01.6CONCON
353218Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.749.935.18.32.42.80.00.01.6CONCON
365206Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.749.433.19.25.82.10.00.00.5CONCON
367204St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.045.829.421.52.40.50.00.00.5CONCON
367203Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.332.015.147.32.42.80.00.00.5LIBLIB
376195Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.852.434.05.92.44.90.00.00.5CONCON
406165Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.351.429.010.96.02.30.00.00.5CONCON
407164Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.949.927.212.94.84.70.00.00.5CONCON
409162Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.850.327.411.74.73.20.01.51.3CONCON
414157Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.050.527.09.72.43.70.06.30.5CONCON
423148Poole Robert Syms73,81167.554.229.88.92.43.10.00.01.6CONCON
426144St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.939.414.642.62.40.50.00.00.5CONLIB
437134Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.256.130.35.25.32.70.00.00.5CONCON
455116Salisbury John Glen72,89273.154.325.911.24.62.70.00.01.2CONCON
459112Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.051.723.019.42.43.00.00.00.5CONCON
464107Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.542.113.138.04.51.90.00.00.5CONCON
466105Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.051.722.620.52.42.30.00.00.5CONCON
469102Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.256.226.99.82.43.20.00.01.5CONCON
47497Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.657.627.58.02.44.00.00.00.5CONCON
48091Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.952.822.117.72.43.20.00.01.8CONCON
48289Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.449.318.625.14.71.80.00.00.5CONCON
48883Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.851.020.125.62.40.50.00.00.5CONCON
50170Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.344.811.72.44.40.50.035.20.9CONCON
50269Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.342.99.942.22.42.20.00.00.5CONCON
50368Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.451.818.723.52.43.30.00.00.5CONCON
50764Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.849.115.827.74.62.30.00.00.5CONCON
51556Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.556.222.213.54.43.20.00.00.5CONCON
51952Wells James Heappey82,44973.846.412.137.72.40.50.00.01.0CONCON
52249Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.047.012.536.62.40.50.00.01.1CONCON
53041Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.353.217.721.02.43.70.00.02.0CONCON
54130Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.159.021.49.35.73.70.00.00.9CONCON
54229Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.650.712.929.72.42.30.00.02.0CONCON
54625Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.256.918.316.34.43.40.00.00.6CONCON
54823Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.256.617.917.74.02.60.00.01.2CONCON
55318Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.651.512.431.42.41.80.00.00.5CONCON
55813Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.255.513.727.52.40.50.00.00.5CONCON
56011Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.061.219.013.62.43.40.00.00.5CONCON
5692Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.065.820.37.92.43.10.00.00.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.