| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 20.6% | 1 | 8 | -7 | 4 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 16.3% | 0 | 15 | -15 | 9 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 21.4% | 0 | 2 | -2 | 20 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 29.1% | 23 | 0 | +23 | 23 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 10.2% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 2.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Exeter' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Dorset West', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dorset West (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Exeter (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 188 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 4.5 | 50.3 | 3.1 | 34.5 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 2.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 33 | 172 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 6.2 | 48.4 | 2.8 | 38.1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 36 | 169 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 4.7 | 46.7 | 2.9 | 34.8 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 37 | 168 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 6.1 | 47.9 | 3.8 | 37.3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 47 | 158 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 7.4 | 48.0 | 3.3 | 35.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 53 | 152 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 4.3 | 44.3 | 2.2 | 41.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 64 | 141 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 5.9 | 45.1 | 2.3 | 42.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 74 | 131 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 6.7 | 43.4 | 2.7 | 41.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 77 | 127 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 5.3 | 41.7 | 2.8 | 44.9 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 124 | 81 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 11.4 | 34.3 | 12.1 | 22.5 | 18.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 130 | 74 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 7.8 | 26.7 | 10.6 | 19.6 | 30.8 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Green |
| 130 | 74 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 8.8 | 27.6 | 9.1 | 29.1 | 23.6 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 133 | 71 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 4.3 | 21.9 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 53.9 | 0.0 | 1.4 | Green | Green |
| 148 | 56 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 17.5 | 21.3 | 8.7 | 42.3 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 149 | 55 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 23.2 | 26.2 | 11.2 | 27.4 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 151 | 53 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 18.7 | 20.9 | 19.6 | 30.7 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 2.6 | CON | Reform |
| 151 | 53 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 20.4 | 22.6 | 11.1 | 33.7 | 10.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 152 | 52 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 14.2 | 15.4 | 32.8 | 19.4 | 13.5 | 0.5 | 4.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 153 | 51 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 22.7 | 23.6 | 8.9 | 32.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 153 | 51 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 20.9 | 21.8 | 12.5 | 31.2 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 153 | 51 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 20.5 | 20.6 | 12.2 | 32.3 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 153 | 51 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 20.8 | 20.3 | 11.6 | 35.3 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 153 | 51 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 20.7 | 19.7 | 16.2 | 33.5 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 153 | 51 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 22.3 | 19.5 | 15.9 | 32.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 153 | 51 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 48.9 | 37.8 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 154 | 51 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 27.1 | 24.0 | 15.4 | 22.3 | 9.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 154 | 50 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 51.0 | 38.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 154 | 50 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 24.1 | 20.4 | 16.0 | 27.7 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 2.1 | CON | Reform |
| 154 | 50 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 48.6 | 41.7 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 154 | 50 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 24.6 | 20.7 | 9.1 | 32.1 | 11.9 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 154 | 50 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 24.2 | 20.0 | 13.6 | 30.5 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 155 | 49 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 47.9 | 40.4 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 156 | 48 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 47.4 | 41.3 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 160 | 44 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 11.1 | 2.5 | 40.9 | 40.5 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 160 | 44 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 42.0 | 38.8 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 160 | 44 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 21.7 | 12.6 | 21.0 | 35.2 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 2.1 | CON | Reform |
| 161 | 44 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 26.8 | 17.5 | 21.4 | 24.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | CON | CON |
| 161 | 43 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 26.9 | 16.7 | 12.2 | 33.8 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 2.4 | CON | Reform |
| 161 | 43 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 20.8 | 9.7 | 24.9 | 32.2 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 4.8 | LIB | Reform |
| 161 | 43 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 15.3 | 3.5 | 34.7 | 40.0 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 161 | 43 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 15.4 | 3.5 | 39.3 | 35.0 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 163 | 41 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 18.5 | 5.6 | 37.4 | 27.7 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 169 | 35 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 27.0 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 39.6 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 1.7 | CON | Reform |
| 173 | 32 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 27.7 | 11.8 | 24.2 | 25.4 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | CON | CON |
| 174 | 30 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 23.1 | 6.2 | 34.5 | 26.6 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 175 | 29 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 23.8 | 6.6 | 32.5 | 26.8 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 175 | 29 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 24.4 | 5.6 | 34.9 | 27.3 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 177 | 27 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 25.2 | 6.0 | 40.2 | 18.1 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 177 | 27 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 26.3 | 7.0 | 30.7 | 27.5 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 177 | 27 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 24.9 | 5.4 | 33.9 | 27.6 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 177 | 27 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 26.0 | 6.0 | 27.2 | 32.3 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 2.2 | CON | Reform |
| 177 | 27 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 26.7 | 6.6 | 30.9 | 27.3 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 178 | 26 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 32.7 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 33.5 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 1.8 | CON | Reform |
| 179 | 25 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 28.4 | 6.1 | 35.3 | 22.2 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 179 | 25 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 30.8 | 8.5 | 15.3 | 35.3 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 4.9 | CON | Reform |
| 183 | 22 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 36.1 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 34.6 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 2.9 | CON | CON |
| 188 | 16 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 34.4 | 2.9 | 42.2 | 14.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 194 | 10 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 35.1 | 1.1 | 48.7 | 9.9 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.