South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	51.4%	47	47.7%	0	2	-2	45
LAB	29.1%	7	29.5%	1	0	+1	8
LIB	15.0%	1	15.0%	1	0	+1	2
UKIP	1.1%	0	3.5%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.3%	0	2.8%	0	0	+0	0
Minor	1.2%	0	1.6%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
33	538	Bristol West	Thangam Debbonaire	92,986	77.0	11.2	66.2	7.3	1.6	13.2	0.0	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
124	447	Bristol South	Karin Smyth	83,009	65.5	26.9	60.5	3.4	5.4	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
129	442	Exeter	Ben Bradshaw	77,329	71.7	29.1	62.3	2.8	2.4	2.4	0.0	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
143	428	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	72,414	70.2	30.6	61.1	2.7	2.4	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
195	376	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Luke Pollard	76,584	58.3	36.1	53.7	2.5	4.9	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
218	353	Bristol North West	Darren Jones	75,431	71.7	38.1	51.0	5.2	2.4	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
250	321	Stroud	David Drew	82,849	77.0	42.2	47.4	3.2	4.0	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
284	287	Camborne and Redruth	George Eustice	67,462	71.8	43.7	44.6	6.2	2.4	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
291	280	Swindon South	Robert Buckland	72,391	70.8	44.6	44.0	4.1	4.9	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
300	271	Truro and Falmouth	Sarah Newton	74,691	75.8	40.6	38.0	15.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
307	264	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Jack Lopresti	72,569	69.9	46.2	42.1	6.0	2.4	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
313	258	Gloucester	Richard Graham	82,963	65.2	46.6	40.5	5.0	5.1	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
318	253	Plymouth Moor View	Johnny Mercer	69,342	65.5	48.1	41.2	2.0	6.4	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
332	239	Swindon North	Justin Tomlinson	80,194	68.5	49.8	38.8	3.6	5.2	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
333	238	Kingswood	Chris Skidmore	69,426	70.2	51.1	39.9	3.6	2.4	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
339	232	Bournemouth East	Tobias Ellwood	74,591	65.2	48.1	35.9	6.5	5.3	3.1	0.0	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
343	228	Bournemouth West	Conor Burns	73,195	60.8	49.7	36.6	6.6	2.4	3.3	0.0	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
351	220	Forest of Dean	Mark Harper	70,898	73.0	50.5	36.3	3.9	4.8	2.9	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
353	218	Somerset North East	Jacob Rees-Mogg	71,350	75.7	49.9	35.1	8.3	2.4	2.8	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
365	206	Weston-Super-Mare	John Penrose	82,160	68.7	49.4	33.1	9.2	5.8	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
367	204	St Austell and Newquay	Steve Double	78,618	69.0	45.8	29.4	21.5	2.4	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
367	203	Bath	Wera Hobhouse	66,769	74.3	32.0	15.1	47.3	2.4	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
376	195	Dorset South	Richard Drax	72,323	71.8	52.4	34.0	5.9	2.4	4.9	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
406	165	Bridgwater and West Somerset	Ian Liddell-Grainger	89,294	65.3	51.4	29.0	10.9	6.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
407	164	Totnes	Sarah Wollaston	68,913	72.9	49.9	27.2	12.9	4.8	4.7	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
409	162	Devon Central	Mel Stride	74,370	77.8	50.3	27.4	11.7	4.7	3.2	0.0	1.5	1.3	CON	CON
414	157	Somerset North	Liam Fox	80,538	77.0	50.5	27.0	9.7	2.4	3.7	0.0	6.3	0.5	CON	CON
423	148	Poole	Robert Syms	73,811	67.5	54.2	29.8	8.9	2.4	3.1	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
426	144	St Ives	Derek Thomas	67,462	75.9	39.4	14.6	42.6	2.4	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	LIB
437	134	Devon South West	Gary Streeter	71,262	74.2	56.1	30.3	5.2	5.3	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
455	116	Salisbury	John Glen	72,892	73.1	54.3	25.9	11.2	4.6	2.7	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
459	112	Cornwall South East	Sheryll Murray	71,896	74.0	51.7	23.0	19.4	2.4	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
464	107	Devon North	Peter Heaton-Jones	75,784	73.5	42.1	13.1	38.0	4.5	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
466	105	Newton Abbot	Anne Marie Morris	71,722	72.0	51.7	22.6	20.5	2.4	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
469	102	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	76,898	71.2	56.2	26.9	9.8	2.4	3.2	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
474	97	Tiverton and Honiton	Neil Parish	80,731	71.6	57.6	27.5	8.0	2.4	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
480	91	Devon West and Torridge	Geoffrey Cox	80,527	73.9	52.8	22.1	17.7	2.4	3.2	0.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
482	89	Torbay	Kevin Foster	75,936	67.4	49.3	18.6	25.1	4.7	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
488	83	Chippenham	Michelle Donelan	76,432	74.8	51.0	20.1	25.6	2.4	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
501	70	Devon East	Hugo Swire	82,382	73.3	44.8	11.7	2.4	4.4	0.5	0.0	35.2	0.9	CON	CON
502	69	Cheltenham	Alex Chalk	78,875	72.3	42.9	9.9	42.2	2.4	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
503	68	Dorset West	Oliver Letwin	79,043	75.4	51.8	18.7	23.5	2.4	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
507	64	Taunton Deane	Rebecca Pow	85,466	73.8	49.1	15.8	27.7	4.6	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
515	56	Tewkesbury	Laurence Robertson	81,442	72.5	56.2	22.2	13.5	4.4	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
519	52	Wells	James Heappey	82,449	73.8	46.4	12.1	37.7	2.4	0.5	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
522	49	Cornwall North	Scott Mann	68,850	74.0	47.0	12.5	36.6	2.4	0.5	0.0	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
530	41	Somerton and Frome	David Warburton	84,435	75.3	53.2	17.7	21.0	2.4	3.7	0.0	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
541	30	Devizes	Claire Perry	72,184	70.1	59.0	21.4	9.3	5.7	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
542	29	Yeovil	Marcus Fysh	82,911	71.6	50.7	12.9	29.7	2.4	2.3	0.0	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
546	25	Cotswolds, The	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	80,446	74.2	56.9	18.3	16.3	4.4	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
548	23	Wiltshire North	James Gray	71,408	75.2	56.6	17.9	17.7	4.0	2.6	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
553	18	Thornbury and Yate	Luke Hall	67,927	74.6	51.5	12.4	31.4	2.4	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
558	13	Dorset Mid and Poole North	Michael Tomlinson	65,054	74.2	55.5	13.7	27.5	2.4	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
560	11	Dorset North	Simon Hoare	76,385	73.0	61.2	19.0	13.6	2.4	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
569	2	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	70,329	72.0	65.8	20.3	7.9	2.4	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.