South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 46.9%03-344
LAB 29.1%7 29.5%20+29
LIB 15.0%1 14.9%10+12
UKIP 1.1%0 4.0%00+00
Green 2.3%0 3.1%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 1.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
33543Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.010.666.
125451Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.526.
130446Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.728.362.
145431Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.229.861.
201375Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58458.335.353.
225351Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.737.351.
256320Stroud David Drew82,84977.041.447.
290286Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.842.944.
297279Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.843.843.
306270Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.839.838.
313263Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.945.442.
319257Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.245.840.
325251Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.547.341.
338238Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.549.
339237Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.250.339.
345231Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.247.335.
349227Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.848.936.
358218Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.049.736.
360216Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.749.
373203Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.748.633.
375201St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.045.029.421.
375200Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.331.
384192Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.851.634.
412164Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.350.529.
413163Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.949.
415161Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.849.527.311.
420156Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.049.627.
429147Poole Robert Syms73,81167.553.429.
431144St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.938.614.642.
443133Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.255.330.
462114Salisbury John Glen72,89273.153.525.911.
466110Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.050.923.
470106Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.541.
472104Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.050.922.620.
475101Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.255.426.
48195Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.656.827.
48789Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.951.922.
48987Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.448.518.625.
49581Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.850.
50967Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.344.
51066Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.342.19.942.
51165Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.450.918.723.
51462Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.848.315.727.
52155Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.555.422.
52452Wells James Heappey82,44973.845.512.
52848Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.046.112.436.
53541Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.352.417.720.
54630Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.
54729Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.649.912.929.
55224Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.256.118.316.
55323Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.255.817.917.
55917Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.650.712.431.
56412Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.254.713.727.
56511Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.060.319.
5742Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.