South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 47.7%02-245
LAB 29.1%7 29.5%10+18
LIB 15.0%1 15.0%10+12
UKIP 1.1%0 3.5%00+00
Green 2.3%0 2.8%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 1.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
33538Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.
124447Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.526.960.
129442Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.729.
143428Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.230.661.
195376Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58458.336.
218353Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.738.
250321Stroud David Drew82,84977.
284287Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.843.744.
291280Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.844.644.
300271Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.840.638.
307264Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.946.
313258Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.246.640.
318253Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.548.
332239Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.549.838.
333238Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.
339232Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.
343228Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.849.736.
351220Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.050.536.
353218Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.749.935.
365206Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.749.433.
367204St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.045.829.421.
367203Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.332.
376195Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.852.434.
406165Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.351.429.
407164Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.949.927.
409162Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.850.327.411.
414157Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.050.527.
423148Poole Robert Syms73,81167.554.
426144St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.939.414.642.
437134Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.
455116Salisbury John Glen72,89273.154.325.911.
459112Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.051.723.
464107Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.542.
466105Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.051.722.620.
469102Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.
47497Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.657.627.
48091Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.952.822.
48289Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.449.318.625.
48883Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.851.
50170Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.344.811.
50269Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.342.99.942.
50368Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.451.818.723.
50764Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.849.115.827.
51556Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.556.
51952Wells James Heappey82,44973.846.412.
52249Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.047.012.536.
53041Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.353.217.721.
54130Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.
54229Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.650.712.929.
54625Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.256.918.316.
54823Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.256.617.917.
55318Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.651.512.431.
55813Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.255.513.727.
56011Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.
5692Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.065.820.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.