South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 49.3%01-146
LAB 29.1%7 27.7%00+07
LIB 15.0%1 15.3%10+12
UKIP 1.1%0 2.4%00+00
Green 2.3%0 3.4%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
33541Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.012.464.47.51.113.80.00.00.8LABLAB
126448Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.528.658.53.64.43.80.00.01.0LABLAB
129445Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.730.860.43.11.33.00.00.01.3LABLAB
143431Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.232.359.23.01.33.30.00.00.8LABLAB
195379Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58458.337.851.82.83.92.40.00.01.3LABLAB
218356Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.739.849.15.51.33.40.00.00.8LABLAB
250324Stroud David Drew82,84977.043.945.53.53.03.40.00.00.8LABLAB
284290Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.845.442.76.41.33.30.00.00.8CONCON
292282Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.846.342.14.43.82.60.00.00.8CONCON
302272Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.842.336.115.22.92.60.00.00.8CONCON
307267Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.947.940.26.31.33.40.00.00.8CONCON
314260Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.248.338.65.34.12.50.00.01.2CONCON
318256Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.549.839.32.35.42.30.00.00.8CONCON
332242Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.551.536.93.94.22.70.00.00.8CONCON
333241Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.252.838.03.91.33.20.00.00.8CONCON
339235Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.249.834.06.84.23.70.00.01.4CONCON
344230Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.851.434.76.91.34.00.00.01.8CONCON
352222Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.052.234.44.23.73.50.00.01.9CONCON
354220Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.751.633.28.61.33.50.00.01.9CONCON
367207Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.751.131.29.54.72.70.00.00.8CONCON
368206St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.047.527.521.81.31.20.00.00.8CONCON
368205Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.333.713.647.51.23.30.00.00.7LIBLIB
379195Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.854.132.16.21.35.50.00.00.8CONCON
408166Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.353.027.111.24.93.00.00.00.8CONCON
410164Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.951.625.313.23.85.30.00.00.8CONCON
411163Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.852.025.412.03.63.80.01.51.6CONCON
417157Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.052.125.19.91.34.30.06.30.8CONCON
424149St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.941.113.242.81.21.00.00.00.7CONLIB
425149Poole Robert Syms73,81167.555.927.99.21.33.80.00.01.9CONCON
441133Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.257.828.45.54.23.30.00.00.8CONCON
459115Salisbury John Glen72,89273.156.024.011.53.63.30.00.01.6CONCON
461113Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.543.711.738.33.22.30.00.00.7CONCON
465109Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.053.421.119.71.33.70.00.00.8CONCON
472102Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.053.420.720.81.32.90.00.00.8CONCON
473101Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.257.925.010.11.33.80.00.01.9CONCON
47995Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.659.325.68.31.34.70.00.00.8CONCON
48391Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.451.016.825.43.62.40.00.00.8CONCON
48589Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.954.420.218.01.33.90.00.02.2CONCON
49381Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.852.718.225.91.31.10.00.00.8CONCON
50569Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.344.68.842.41.02.50.00.00.6CONCON
50767Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.346.510.52.73.10.90.035.21.1CONCON
50866Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.453.416.923.81.33.80.00.00.8CONCON
51064Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.850.814.227.93.52.90.00.00.7CONCON
51658Wells James Heappey82,44973.848.010.837.91.10.90.00.01.2CONCON
52153Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.048.611.236.81.11.00.00.01.3CONCON
52252Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.557.920.313.83.43.80.00.00.8CONCON
53242Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.354.916.021.21.24.30.00.02.3CONCON
54331Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.652.411.530.01.12.70.00.02.2CONCON
54529Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.160.719.49.64.74.30.00.01.3CONCON
54925Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.258.616.616.63.34.00.00.01.0CONCON
55123Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.653.211.131.71.12.20.00.00.7CONCON
55222Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.258.316.218.02.93.20.00.01.5CONCON
56212Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.257.212.327.71.11.00.00.00.7CONCON
56311Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.062.817.213.81.34.00.00.00.8CONCON
5722Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.067.518.48.21.33.80.00.00.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.