South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 48.5%01-146
LAB 29.1%7 28.7%00+07
LIB 15.0%1 15.1%10+12
UKIP 1.1%0 3.4%00+00
Green 2.3%0 2.6%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 1.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
33541Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.011.865.57.41.713.
124450Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.527.759.
128446Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.729.961.
144430Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.231.460.
195379Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58458.337.
219355Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.738.950.
251323Stroud David Drew82,84977.
284290Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.844.543.
292282Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.845.443.
301273Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.841.437.315.
308266Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.947.
314260Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.247.439.
319255Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.548.940.
334240Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.550.738.
335239Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.251.939.
341233Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.248.935.
345229Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.850.635.
353221Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.051.335.
355219Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.750.734.
371203Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.750.
372202St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.046.628.621.
372201Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.332.814.447.
381193Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.853.
409165Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.352.
411163Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.950.726.413.
412162Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.851.126.611.
418156Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.051.326.
426148Poole Robert Syms73,81167.555.
427146St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.940.
441133Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.256.929.
460114Salisbury John Glen72,89273.
464110Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.052.522.
468106Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.542.912.438.
471103Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.052.521.820.
473101Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.
47797Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.658.426.
48589Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.953.621.317.
48787Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.450.117.825.
49381Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.851.819.325.
50767Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.343.79.342.
50866Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.345.611.
50965Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.452.617.923.
51262Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.849.915.
52054Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.557.121.413.
52153Wells James Heappey82,44973.847.211.537.
52450Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.047.811.836.
53242Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.354.016.921.
54430Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.159.820.
54529Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.651.512.
54925Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.257.717.616.
55024Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.257.417.
55519Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.652.311.831.
56212Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.256.313.
56311Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.062.018.313.
5722Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.066.619.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.