Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 29.8%03-35
LAB 48.9%28 49.3%30+331
LIB 4.5%0 4.5%00+00
UKIP 2.0%0 4.3%00+00
Green 0.3%0 0.8%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.4%00+04
Minor 0.2%0 0.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (prediction: Plaid).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
30541Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.
35536Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.714.368.
44527Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.514.667.
60511Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.116.062.813.
62509Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.211.958.
64507Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.015.761.
82489Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.
83488Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.721.362.
98473Neath Christina Rees55,85968.519.957.
104467Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.223.459.
117454Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.919.853.
125446Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.326.459.
126445Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.121.454.
130441Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.922.955.
132439Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.527.560.
137434Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.425.957.
141430Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.
152418Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.
159412Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.330.956.
192379Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.
196375Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.535.552.
203368Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.036.652.
204367Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.035.351.
208363Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.636.
209362Delyn David Hanson54,11672.837.652.
221350Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.438.350.
226345Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.338.950.
229342Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.
233338Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.639.849.
239331Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.322.430.
247323Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.214.920.529.03.71.829.20.00.8PlaidPlaid
263308Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.139.543.
272299Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.040.843.
287284Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.643.643.
304267Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.
307263Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.925.321.
308263Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.844.
340231Monmouth David Davies64,90976.649.337.
446125Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.844.818.
49774Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.748.016.325.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.