Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 30.5%02-26
LAB 48.9%28 47.9%20+230
LIB 4.5%0 4.6%00+00
UKIP 2.0%0 4.9%00+00
Green 0.3%0 1.5%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.4%00+04
Minor 0.2%0 0.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (prediction: Plaid).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
29547Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.28.663.00.94.50.722.30.00.0LABLAB
35541Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.715.067.11.86.71.08.30.00.0LABLAB
43533Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.515.365.82.67.11.18.20.00.0LABLAB
60516Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.116.761.413.53.82.22.50.00.0LABLAB
61515Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.212.557.01.05.40.921.22.10.0LABLAB
64512Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.016.460.01.96.91.113.80.00.0LABLAB
83493Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.122.962.41.85.92.24.80.00.0LABLAB
84492Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.722.061.41.66.21.17.50.00.0LABLAB
98478Neath Christina Rees55,85968.520.655.72.06.61.113.90.00.0LABLAB
105471Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.224.157.82.07.41.17.60.00.0LABLAB
120456Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.920.652.51.46.21.118.20.00.0LABLAB
126450Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.327.158.52.95.02.24.30.00.1LABLAB
128448Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.122.153.51.86.02.214.40.00.0LABLAB
133443Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.923.654.45.05.61.110.30.00.0LABLAB
135441Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.528.258.73.53.02.34.10.00.1LABLAB
140436Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.426.755.72.74.41.19.50.00.0LABLAB
144432Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.127.956.62.36.81.15.40.00.0LABLAB
154421Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.213.839.52.32.51.040.80.00.0PlaidPlaid
163413Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.331.755.52.76.41.22.40.00.1LABLAB
198378Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.224.740.91.34.61.127.40.00.0LABLAB
202374Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.536.251.32.35.52.32.50.00.0LABLAB
210366Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.037.351.12.55.41.12.60.00.0LABLAB
211365Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.036.049.72.05.11.16.10.00.0LABLAB
215361Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.636.749.62.25.51.44.10.00.4LABLAB
216360Delyn David Hanson54,11672.838.351.22.72.91.13.80.00.0LABLAB
228348Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.439.049.13.34.01.13.30.00.0LABLAB
234342Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.339.648.92.14.51.23.70.00.1LABLAB
236340Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.041.049.21.82.91.14.00.00.0LABLAB
239337Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.640.647.92.52.91.15.00.00.0LABLAB
245330Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.323.228.82.35.31.139.30.00.0PlaidPlaid
252323Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.215.519.129.04.52.529.20.00.1PlaidPlaid
268308Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.140.341.62.75.01.16.42.90.0CONLAB
278298Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.041.541.63.02.91.19.90.00.0CONLAB
294282Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.644.442.42.04.82.04.30.00.2CONCON
310266Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.143.738.42.35.11.19.30.00.0CONCON
314261Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.926.019.73.14.91.145.10.00.0PlaidPlaid
315261Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.845.038.62.72.91.19.60.00.0CONCON
348228Monmouth David Davies64,90976.650.035.64.24.53.02.70.00.0CONCON
453123Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.845.516.829.24.21.13.10.00.0CONCON
50571Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.748.715.125.22.82.65.60.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.