Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 30.6%02-26
LAB 48.9%28 48.6%20+230
LIB 4.5%0 4.6%00+00
UKIP 2.0%0 4.3%00+00
Green 0.3%0 0.7%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.4%00+04
Minor 0.2%0 0.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ceredigion (prediction: Plaid).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
29545Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.28.663.
35539Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.715.
43531Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.515.466.
60514Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.116.862.
61513Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.212.657.
64510Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.016.560.
82492Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.
83491Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.722.
98476Neath Christina Rees55,85968.520.756.
104470Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.
118456Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.920.753.
125449Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.327.
126448Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.
130444Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.923.755.
132442Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.528.359.
138436Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.426.856.
142432Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.127.957.
150423Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.213.940.
159415Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.331.856.
192382Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.224.841.
196378Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.536.351.
204370Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.037.451.
205369Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.
209365Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.636.850.
210364Delyn David Hanson54,11672.838.451.
223351Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.439.
229345Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.339.749.
231343Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.
234340Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.640.748.
240333Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.323.329.
247326Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.215.619.829.13.71.729.20.00.9PlaidPlaid
264310Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.140.442.
273301Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.041.642.
289285Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.644.543.
305269Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.143.839.
308265Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.926.
309265Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.845.
342232Monmouth David Davies64,90976.650.
451123Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.845.617.429.
50272Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.748.815.625.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.