Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 31.5%00+08
LAB 48.9%28 47.6%00+028
LIB 4.5%0 4.8%10+11
UKIP 2.0%0 3.3%00+00
Green 0.3%0 1.4%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.4%01-13
Minor 0.2%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ceredigion (prediction: LIB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
29545Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.29.162.61.03.60.822.30.00.6LABLAB
35539Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.715.966.72.15.21.08.30.00.7LABLAB
42532Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.516.265.42.85.61.18.20.00.8LABLAB
60514Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.213.256.61.24.10.921.22.10.7LABLAB
61513Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.117.761.013.72.12.22.50.00.8LABLAB
64510Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.017.359.62.15.31.113.80.00.8LABLAB
82492Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.123.962.02.14.32.14.80.00.8LABLAB
83491Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.723.061.01.94.61.17.50.00.8LABLAB
98476Neath Christina Rees55,85968.521.655.32.25.01.113.90.00.8LABLAB
104470Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.225.157.42.25.71.17.60.00.8LABLAB
118456Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.921.552.11.74.61.118.20.00.8LABLAB
124450Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.328.158.13.13.12.24.30.01.1LABLAB
125449Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.123.153.12.04.32.214.40.00.8LABLAB
130444Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.924.654.05.24.01.110.30.00.8LABLAB
132442Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.529.258.43.71.32.34.10.01.0LABLAB
137437Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.427.655.32.92.81.19.50.00.8LABLAB
140434Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.128.856.22.55.21.15.40.00.8LABLAB
150423Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.214.639.12.61.21.040.80.00.7PlaidPlaid
159415Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.332.755.12.94.51.12.40.01.3LABLAB
192382Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.225.740.51.63.01.127.40.00.8LABLAB
196378Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.537.250.92.53.82.32.50.00.8LABLAB
203371Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.038.350.72.73.81.12.60.00.8LABLAB
204370Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.037.049.32.23.41.16.10.00.8LABLAB
208366Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.637.749.32.43.11.14.10.02.3LABLAB
209365Delyn David Hanson54,11672.839.350.82.91.31.13.80.00.8LABLAB
221353Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.440.048.73.62.41.13.30.00.8LABLAB
227347Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.340.648.52.32.71.13.70.01.1LABLAB
229345Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.042.048.82.01.31.14.00.00.8LABLAB
233341Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.641.647.52.81.31.15.00.00.8LABLAB
239334Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.324.228.42.53.71.139.30.00.8PlaidPlaid
243330Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.216.418.829.22.72.429.20.01.2PlaidLIB
263311Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.141.341.22.93.31.16.42.90.9CONCON
271303Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.042.541.23.21.31.19.90.00.8CONCON
288286Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.645.442.02.22.91.94.30.01.4CONCON
304270Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.144.738.12.63.41.19.30.00.8CONCON
307266Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.927.019.33.43.31.145.10.00.8PlaidPlaid
308266Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.846.038.23.01.31.19.60.00.8CONCON
341233Monmouth David Davies64,90976.651.035.24.42.83.02.70.00.8CONCON
448126Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.846.516.529.42.61.13.10.00.8CONCON
50074Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.749.714.825.51.22.55.60.00.7CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.