Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 29.8%03-35
LAB 48.9%28 49.3%30+331
LIB 4.5%0 4.5%00+00
UKIP 2.0%0 4.3%00+00
Green 0.3%0 0.8%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.4%00+04
Minor 0.2%0 0.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (prediction: Plaid).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
30541Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.28.264.30.83.90.322.30.00.2LABLAB
35536Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.714.368.51.86.20.58.30.00.4LABLAB
44527Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.514.667.22.56.60.58.20.00.4LABLAB
60511Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.116.062.813.43.21.62.50.00.5LABLAB
62509Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.211.958.30.94.80.421.22.10.4LABLAB
64507Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.015.761.41.86.30.513.80.00.5LABLAB
82489Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.122.263.81.85.41.54.80.00.5LABLAB
83488Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.721.362.81.65.70.57.50.00.5LABLAB
98473Neath Christina Rees55,85968.519.957.11.96.10.513.90.00.5LABLAB
104467Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.223.459.21.96.90.57.60.00.5LABLAB
117454Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.919.853.91.45.70.518.20.00.5LABLAB
125446Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.326.459.92.84.31.64.30.00.8LABLAB
126445Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.121.454.91.85.51.614.40.00.5LABLAB
130441Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.922.955.84.95.10.510.30.00.5LABLAB
132439Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.527.560.23.42.41.74.10.00.7LABLAB
137434Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.425.957.12.63.90.59.50.00.5LABLAB
141430Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.127.158.02.26.30.55.40.00.5LABLAB
152418Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.213.240.82.32.00.440.80.00.4PlaidPlaid
159412Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.330.956.92.65.60.52.40.01.0LABLAB
192379Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.224.042.31.34.10.527.40.00.5LABLAB
196375Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.535.552.72.35.01.72.50.00.5LABLAB
203368Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.036.652.52.44.90.52.60.00.5LABLAB
204367Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.035.351.12.04.60.56.10.00.5LABLAB
208363Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.636.051.12.14.20.54.10.02.0LABLAB
209362Delyn David Hanson54,11672.837.652.62.62.40.53.80.00.5LABLAB
221350Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.438.350.53.33.50.53.30.00.5LABLAB
226345Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.338.950.32.03.80.53.70.00.8LABLAB
229342Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.040.250.61.72.40.54.00.00.5LABLAB
233338Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.639.849.32.52.40.55.00.00.5LABLAB
239331Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.322.430.22.24.80.539.30.00.5PlaidPlaid
247323Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.214.920.529.03.71.829.20.00.8PlaidPlaid
263308Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.139.543.02.64.40.56.42.90.5CONLAB
272299Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.040.843.02.92.40.59.90.00.5CONLAB
287284Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.643.643.81.94.01.34.30.01.0CONLAB
304267Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.143.039.92.34.60.59.30.00.5CONCON
307263Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.925.321.13.14.40.545.10.00.5PlaidPlaid
308263Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.844.240.02.72.40.59.60.00.5CONCON
340231Monmouth David Davies64,90976.649.337.04.24.02.42.70.00.5CONCON
446125Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.844.818.129.13.80.53.10.00.5CONCON
49774Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.748.016.325.22.42.05.60.00.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.