Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 31.5%00+08
LAB 48.9%28 47.6%00+028
LIB 4.5%0 4.8%10+11
UKIP 2.0%0 3.3%00+00
Green 0.3%0 1.4%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.4%01-13
Minor 0.2%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ceredigion (prediction: LIB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
29545Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.
35539Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.715.966.
42532Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.516.
60514Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.
61513Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.117.761.
64510Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.017.359.
82492Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.123.962.
83491Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.723.
98476Neath Christina Rees55,85968.521.655.
104470Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.
118456Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.921.552.
124450Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.328.
125449Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.
130444Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.924.654.
132442Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.529.
137437Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.427.655.
140434Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.128.856.
150423Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.214.639.
159415Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.332.755.
192382Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.225.740.
196378Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.537.
203371Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.038.350.
204370Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.
208366Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.637.749.
209365Delyn David Hanson54,11672.839.350.
221353Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.440.
227347Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.340.648.
229345Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.
233341Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.641.647.
239334Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.324.
243330Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.216.418.829.22.72.429.20.01.2PlaidLIB
263311Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.141.341.
271303Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.042.541.
288286Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.645.442.
304270Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.144.738.
307266Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.927.
308266Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.846.
341233Monmouth David Davies64,90976.651.
448126Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.846.516.529.
50074Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.749.714.825.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.