Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 30.5%02-26
LAB 48.9%28 47.9%20+230
LIB 4.5%0 4.6%00+00
UKIP 2.0%0 4.9%00+00
Green 0.3%0 1.5%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.4%00+04
Minor 0.2%0 0.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (prediction: Plaid).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
29547Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.28.663.
35541Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.715.
43533Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.515.365.
60516Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.116.761.413.
61515Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.212.557.
64512Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.016.460.
83493Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.122.962.
84492Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.722.
98478Neath Christina Rees55,85968.520.655.
105471Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.
120456Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.920.652.
126450Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.327.
128448Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.
133443Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.923.654.
135441Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.528.
140436Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.426.755.
144432Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.127.956.
154421Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.213.839.
163413Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.331.755.
198378Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.224.740.
202374Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.536.
210366Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.037.351.
211365Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.
215361Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.636.749.
216360Delyn David Hanson54,11672.838.351.
228348Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.439.
234342Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.339.648.
236340Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.
239337Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.640.647.
245330Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.323.
252323Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.215.519.
268308Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.140.341.
278298Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.041.541.
294282Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.644.442.
310266Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.143.738.
314261Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.926.
315261Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.845.
348228Monmouth David Davies64,90976.650.
453123Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.845.516.829.
50571Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.748.715.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.