Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.1%14 21.2%012-122
LAB 40.9%22 47.1%120+1234
LIB 6.0%0 3.5%00+00
Reform 5.4%0 10.0%00+00
Green 1.0%0 3.6%00+00
Plaid 9.9%4 13.8%00+04
Other 0.6%0 0.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Cardiff Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Newport West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
77503Cardiff Central Jo Stevens64,03765.313.862.75.88.05.04.10.6LABLAB
82498Rhondda Chris Bryant50,26259.010.358.72.09.53.615.10.8LABLAB
95485Aberavon Stephen Kinnock50,75062.312.257.72.510.83.911.91.0LABLAB
108472Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones56,32257.311.955.72.911.93.612.81.2LABLAB
110470Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith50,73959.612.055.52.713.84.010.91.2LABLAB
117463Cynon Valley Beth Winter51,13459.112.955.72.510.83.213.91.0LABLAB
133447Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty78,83764.218.059.22.78.44.86.20.7LABLAB
135445Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,45057.414.955.92.910.84.210.31.1LABLAB
137443Ogmore Chris Elmore57,58161.514.955.62.810.84.111.00.7LABLAB
153427Cardiff West Kevin Brennan68,50867.418.356.62.67.94.69.30.7LABLAB
155425Caerphilly Wayne David63,16663.516.254.41.39.42.315.50.9LABLAB
170410Islwyn Chris Evans55,42362.017.354.32.411.53.99.60.9LABLAB
174406Swansea West Geraint Davies57,07862.818.154.84.19.34.48.40.8LABLAB
203377Pontypridd Alex Davies-Jones60,32764.719.351.42.39.73.512.90.9LABLAB
207373Neath Christina Rees56,41965.115.246.83.011.43.618.91.0LABLAB
211369Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds62,33059.619.150.52.913.44.88.11.2LABLAB
213367Llanelli Nia Griffith60,51863.216.947.91.59.92.420.60.8LABLAB
235345Cardiff North Anna McMorrin68,43877.024.753.13.68.04.85.20.6LABLAB
242338Newport East Jessica Morden58,55462.023.450.33.411.24.76.20.8LABLAB
254326Newport West Ruth Jones66,65765.225.251.03.09.94.95.30.7LABLAB
255324Arfon Hywel Williams42,21568.98.233.80.95.61.150.00.4PlaidPlaid
260320Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami62,78968.522.947.73.312.14.08.81.1LABLAB
279301Clwyd South Simon Baynes53,91967.323.546.43.211.12.912.10.8CONLAB
280300Gower Tonia Antoniazzi61,76272.025.748.53.59.74.18.00.6LABLAB
287293Bridgend Jamie Wallis63,30366.723.645.83.210.94.610.91.1CONLAB
290290Delyn Rob Roberts54,56070.324.546.23.811.93.88.90.9CONLAB
297283Vale of Clwyd James Davies56,64965.725.346.53.110.93.49.90.9CONLAB
298282Ynys Mon Virginia Crosbie51,92570.419.039.81.29.01.429.30.4CONLAB
300280Wrexham Sarah Atherton49,73767.425.345.72.710.22.912.30.9CONLAB
302278Aberconwy Robin Millar44,69971.326.546.92.38.52.113.10.6CONLAB
310270Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns76,50871.630.049.22.18.35.14.70.6CONLAB
321259Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb59,60671.226.043.53.110.82.912.90.7CONLAB
329251Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart59,15871.228.243.52.810.42.612.10.4CONLAB
349230Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards57,41971.419.631.80.97.81.138.40.5PlaidPlaid
363217Clwyd West David Jones57,71469.729.739.33.19.83.114.30.7CONLAB
365214Ceredigion Ben Lake56,38671.115.124.46.310.32.241.40.4PlaidPlaid
394185Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Saville Roberts44,36267.516.921.31.07.60.951.80.4PlaidPlaid
397183Monmouth David Davies67,09874.835.539.74.79.65.05.00.4CONLAB
53050Brecon and Radnorshire Fay Jones55,49074.535.425.919.012.23.23.90.3CONCON
54337Montgomeryshire Craig Williams48,99769.837.426.713.612.73.25.90.3CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.