| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 20.5% | 0 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 18.0% | 0 | 33 | -33 | 5 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 9.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 31.5% | 36 | 0 | +36 | 36 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 14.2% | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 5.9% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Staffordshire Moorlands', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Staffordshire Moorlands (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Ladywood (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 291 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 5.7 | 22.0 | 5.2 | 14.8 | 37.8 | 0.0 | 14.5 | LAB | Green |
| 42 | 285 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 18.8 | 26.4 | 8.3 | 20.3 | 19.6 | 4.8 | 1.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 48 | 278 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 8.5 | 19.8 | 9.1 | 15.0 | 29.8 | 0.0 | 17.8 | LAB | Green |
| 49 | 278 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 17.1 | 25.5 | 10.2 | 20.9 | 23.7 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 53 | 274 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 17.5 | 24.7 | 8.8 | 21.3 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 5.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 267 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 10.9 | 34.9 | 5.5 | 32.1 | 12.7 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 74 | 252 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 10.8 | 18.7 | 6.1 | 18.0 | 26.5 | 0.0 | 19.8 | MIN | Green |
| 75 | 252 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 21.9 | 24.3 | 7.7 | 23.7 | 16.4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 94 | 233 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 18.3 | 23.3 | 15.0 | 25.6 | 15.1 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 95 | 232 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 11.8 | 32.0 | 4.7 | 34.5 | 10.6 | 0.0 | 6.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 104 | 223 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 9.5 | 30.6 | 4.1 | 33.7 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 107 | 220 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 10.4 | 23.5 | 7.1 | 26.9 | 25.8 | 0.0 | 6.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 114 | 212 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 10.4 | 14.8 | 8.8 | 19.1 | 22.9 | 24.0 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 115 | 212 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 10.8 | 23.9 | 5.7 | 28.3 | 19.2 | 9.5 | 2.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 142 | 185 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 16.3 | 21.2 | 9.8 | 28.3 | 21.2 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 173 | 153 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 33.3 | 16.6 | 7.0 | 26.6 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 174 | 153 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 26.6 | 20.5 | 8.2 | 30.6 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 186 | 141 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 17.4 | 21.1 | 7.7 | 32.3 | 17.2 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 187 | 140 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 9.5 | 15.7 | 3.8 | 27.0 | 20.4 | 23.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 190 | 137 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 10.3 | 25.4 | 3.3 | 36.8 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 193 | 134 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 11.9 | 21.6 | 6.1 | 33.6 | 17.7 | 0.0 | 9.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 195 | 132 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 19.5 | 20.6 | 9.2 | 32.8 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 203 | 124 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 13.5 | 17.8 | 6.8 | 30.7 | 16.1 | 0.0 | 15.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 206 | 121 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 26.2 | 17.8 | 5.4 | 31.0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 213 | 114 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 13.6 | 26.0 | 5.7 | 40.1 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 218 | 109 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 18.8 | 20.1 | 10.0 | 34.7 | 13.9 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 224 | 103 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 19.6 | 18.6 | 10.6 | 33.7 | 14.9 | 0.0 | 2.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 234 | 93 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 18.2 | 20.7 | 6.8 | 36.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 6.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 244 | 83 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 18.9 | 17.1 | 7.3 | 34.0 | 14.8 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 252 | 75 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 11.0 | 21.4 | 5.2 | 40.0 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 8.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 258 | 69 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 27.9 | 14.6 | 4.1 | 34.0 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 259 | 68 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 17.9 | 19.1 | 7.8 | 38.6 | 13.8 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 261 | 65 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 38.7 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 29.7 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | CON | CON |
| 262 | 64 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 41.3 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 28.4 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 262 | 64 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 26.4 | 7.2 | 28.6 | 27.5 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 263 | 64 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 18.1 | 18.0 | 6.1 | 38.5 | 12.4 | 0.0 | 6.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 266 | 61 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 30.5 | 15.4 | 5.8 | 36.7 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 268 | 59 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 34.8 | 14.1 | 6.1 | 35.5 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 269 | 57 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 44.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 31.9 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 3.1 | CON | CON |
| 273 | 54 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 25.2 | 17.2 | 5.8 | 40.2 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 276 | 51 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 31.8 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 35.7 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 278 | 49 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 23.8 | 10.2 | 19.2 | 33.7 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | CON | Reform |
| 281 | 46 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 30.4 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 38.6 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 4.4 | CON | Reform |
| 282 | 45 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 19.2 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 40.9 | 11.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 283 | 44 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 17.8 | 16.8 | 7.5 | 42.6 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 2.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 286 | 41 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 23.0 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 32.9 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | Green | Reform |
| 288 | 39 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 31.9 | 8.2 | 17.1 | 34.4 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | CON | Reform |
| 289 | 37 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 41.5 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 2.9 | CON | CON |
| 293 | 33 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 40.3 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 36.2 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 2.8 | CON | CON |
| 294 | 33 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 30.3 | 13.1 | 4.2 | 40.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 294 | 32 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 40.3 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 36.7 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 2.9 | CON | CON |
| 298 | 28 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 45.4 | 32.2 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 298 | 28 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 39.5 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 37.3 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 2.7 | CON | CON |
| 302 | 25 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 37.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 39.9 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 3.2 | CON | Reform |
| 303 | 23 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 39.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 37.9 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 2.9 | CON | CON |
| 304 | 22 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 40.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 39.4 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 3.2 | CON | CON |
| 312 | 15 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 28.4 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 45.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 2.2 | CON | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.