West Midlands: Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 27.6%15 20.8%15-411
LAB 34.0%38 18.0%033-335
LIB 8.8%2 10.0%00+02
Reform 18.1%0 31.6%350+3535
Green 6.6%1 12.7%31+23
Other 4.9%1 6.9%11+01

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Staffordshire Moorlands', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Staffordshire Moorlands (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Ladywood (prediction: Green).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
35293Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood83,69343.75.922.15.314.736.20.015.8LABGreen
44285Coventry South Zarah Sultana76,26256.019.126.58.520.518.14.82.6LABLAB
50279Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,05756.08.140.23.634.97.90.05.2LABLAB
52276Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Tahir Ali76,93654.18.719.89.214.828.30.019.2LABGreen
54275Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,29464.517.425.610.421.022.10.03.5LABLAB
56273Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Kaur Gill71,78752.117.824.88.921.120.50.07.0LABLAB
75253Birmingham Perry Barr Ayoub Khan76,35049.111.118.76.217.825.00.021.2MINGreen
78251Wolverhampton West Warinder Juss77,85156.122.124.47.823.614.92.44.8LABLAB
90239Coventry East Mary Creagh75,80148.87.135.52.836.58.27.12.8LABReform
94235Smethwick Gurinder Singh Josan72,86348.29.228.64.630.314.39.53.6LABReform
104225Shrewsbury Julia Buckley76,63367.318.523.315.125.713.60.03.8LABReform
109220West Bromwich Sarah Coombes74,02649.312.530.85.033.910.10.07.7LABReform
112217Birmingham Selly Oak Alistair Carns75,67850.810.723.57.226.724.30.07.7LABReform
127201Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips73,20349.410.615.19.119.821.424.00.0LABMIN
146183Worcester Tom Collins74,93161.416.621.29.928.319.70.04.3LABReform
182147Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden77,47343.17.729.92.440.37.112.60.0LABReform
184145Rugby John Anthony Slinger74,90165.427.420.28.230.79.60.04.0LABReform
188141Birmingham Erdington Paulette Hamilton77,46343.611.423.25.734.115.10.010.5LABReform
190139Birmingham Northfield Laurence Turner74,04850.817.721.17.832.115.60.05.7LABReform
196132Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell74,08065.235.015.96.827.67.07.70.0CONCON
198131Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Liam Byrne77,73743.99.815.94.127.818.823.60.0LABReform
203126Stafford Leigh Ingham70,60865.219.820.79.332.914.00.03.3LABReform
206123Walsall and Bloxwich Valerie Vaz75,96849.013.817.96.830.514.60.016.4LABReform
215114Stourbridge Cat Eccles68,31158.426.617.95.731.88.110.00.0LABReform
220109Telford Shaun Davies73,80855.214.325.16.139.610.30.04.7LABReform
222107Newcastle-under-Lyme Adam Jogee67,83958.419.120.210.234.812.30.03.4LABReform
228101Halesowen Alex Ballinger68,54956.319.818.710.733.813.30.03.7LABReform
23198Stoke-on-Trent North David Williams69,79051.818.520.76.936.310.00.07.6LABReform
24386Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell73,69347.98.925.64.042.09.30.010.2LABReform
24980Nuneaton Jodie Gosling71,66257.519.217.37.634.813.37.90.0LABReform
26168Wolverhampton North East Sureena Brackenridge70,71547.118.119.28.038.612.30.03.8LABReform
26464Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright74,92371.239.09.911.229.97.00.03.0CONCON
26564Burton and Uttoxeter Jacob Collier77,99458.528.214.74.334.77.310.80.0LABReform
26563Stratford-on-Avon Manuela Perteghella75,71469.926.77.228.627.46.50.03.6LIBLIB
26663Tipton and Wednesbury Antonia Bance74,10043.018.418.06.238.310.90.08.2LABReform
26761Solihull West and Shirley Neil Shastri-Hurst71,81365.341.38.36.929.17.17.30.0CONCON
27059Stoke-on-Trent South Allison Gardner68,26360.031.315.05.636.45.90.05.7LABReform
27157Lichfield Dave Robertson76,11864.535.513.76.035.55.40.04.0LABCON
27256Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Gavin Williamson71,56159.844.39.95.131.74.70.04.3CONCON
27851Warwickshire North and Bedworth Rachel Margaret Taylor69,75258.726.116.85.740.16.80.04.5LABReform
27950Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin79,24269.024.110.319.333.99.50.02.8CONReform
28049Redditch Christopher James Bloore71,03859.732.112.64.136.56.38.50.0LABReform
28445Wyre Forest Mark Garnier77,39458.331.213.05.838.45.90.05.7CONReform
28544Cannock Chase Josh Newbury76,97455.818.116.97.742.711.00.03.7LABReform
28742Herefordshire North Ellie Chowns72,79769.223.36.96.332.926.40.04.1GreenReform
28841Dudley Sonia Kumar70,15151.019.515.27.741.110.33.42.7LABReform
28840Bromsgrove Bradley Anthony Thomas76,46865.941.38.66.134.94.50.73.9CONCON
29039Shropshire South Stuart Anderson76,72367.332.68.116.734.55.10.03.0CONReform
29236Meriden and Solihull East Saqib Bhatti73,65959.840.18.95.036.26.00.03.8CONCON
29335Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard78,94263.440.19.24.636.65.50.03.9CONCON
29434Shropshire North Helen Morgan77,59463.911.73.944.131.74.70.03.9LIBLIB
29534Tamworth Sarah Edwards75,05958.330.812.84.240.75.63.12.7LABReform
29929Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,20363.139.38.65.337.45.70.03.7CONCON
30425Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton70,87157.737.59.54.239.74.60.04.4CONReform
30424Droitwich and Evesham Nigel Huddleston76,62464.739.67.55.837.95.40.03.9CONCON
30523Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Mike Wood71,66263.040.08.34.339.03.90.04.4CONCON
31217Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley69,89262.028.912.25.045.45.40.03.0CONReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.