West Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 49.0%35 44.5%03-332
LAB 42.5%24 42.9%30+327
LIB 4.4%0 4.4%00+00
UKIP 1.8%0 4.7%00+00
Green 1.7%0 2.5%00+00
Minor 0.6%0 1.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Birmingham Ladywood, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Staffordshire South, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Shrewsbury and Atcham (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warwick and Leamington (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
8568Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood70,02359.010.283.02.81.91.90.00.00.3LABLAB
12564Birmingham Hodge Hill Liam Byrne75,69861.310.981.31.74.31.40.00.00.3LABLAB
17559Birmingham Hall Green Roger Godsiff78,27169.411.677.95.72.22.20.00.00.4LABLAB
63513Birmingham Perry Barr Khalid Mahmood70,10663.021.968.52.42.92.20.01.30.7LABLAB
66510Warley John Spellar63,72463.121.667.51.96.32.20.00.00.5LABLAB
85491Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips72,58161.315.357.417.87.31.50.00.00.7LABLAB
96480Coventry North East Colleen Fletcher75,79261.425.363.82.55.81.90.00.00.7LABLAB
109467Birmingham Selly Oak Steve McCabe74,37065.927.363.33.32.92.60.00.00.5LABLAB
154422Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden69,95151.930.258.61.27.52.00.00.00.5LABLAB
170406Walsall South Valerie Vaz67,41765.432.657.71.37.00.90.00.00.5LABLAB
175401West Bromwich East Tom Watson63,83361.333.658.31.62.92.20.00.01.3LABLAB
176400Birmingham Erdington Jack Dromey65,06757.233.858.32.02.92.50.00.00.5LABLAB
185391Coventry North West Geoffrey Robinson75,21466.332.154.32.66.02.20.02.30.5LABLAB
186390Coventry South James Cunningham70,75466.433.555.42.85.12.10.00.01.0LABLAB
192384Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Gill68,09164.034.955.73.62.92.10.00.00.8LABLAB
204372Wolverhampton North East Emma Reynolds60,79960.035.753.21.67.02.20.00.00.5LABLAB
206370West Bromwich West Adrian Bailey65,95654.735.152.40.99.31.70.00.00.5LABLAB
208368Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell58,19657.035.251.92.07.82.00.00.01.1LABLAB
216360Birmingham Northfield Richard Burden72,32261.338.153.62.12.92.80.00.00.5LABLAB
238338Stoke-on-Trent North Ruth Smeeth72,36857.740.751.32.22.92.50.00.00.5LABLAB
240336Wolverhampton South West Eleanor Smith60,00370.639.649.71.85.32.20.00.01.3LABLAB
249327Warwick and Leamington Matt Western74,23772.839.847.05.24.43.10.00.00.5LABLAB
263313Newcastle-under-Lyme Paul Farrelly65,54066.943.548.53.72.90.90.00.00.5LABLAB
264312Dudley North Ian Austin62,04362.741.846.90.98.41.50.00.00.5LABLAB
273303Stoke-on-Trent South Jack Brereton66,04663.144.547.81.92.92.40.00.00.5CONLAB
275301Telford Lucy Allan68,16465.644.147.52.12.92.90.00.00.5CONLAB
298278Worcester Robin Walker72,81570.643.543.63.45.53.20.00.00.8CONLAB
307269Walsall North Eddie Hughes67,30956.645.043.21.58.90.90.00.00.5CONCON
320256Nuneaton Marcus Jones69,20166.647.041.62.06.42.50.00.00.5CONCON
326250Shrewsbury and Atcham Daniel Kawczynski79,04373.645.438.97.35.32.70.00.00.5CONCON
328248Halesowen and Rowley Regis James Morris68,85664.547.340.41.97.71.80.00.00.9CONCON
337239Stafford Jeremy Lefroy68,44575.950.140.22.92.93.30.00.00.5CONCON
342234Rugby Mark Pawsey72,17571.149.738.75.52.92.70.00.00.5CONCON
343233Stourbridge Margot James70,21567.149.938.72.36.71.90.00.00.5CONCON
344232Redditch Rachel Maclean64,33470.347.736.42.65.91.70.05.00.7CONCON
350226Cannock Chase Amanda Milling74,54064.250.437.81.67.12.60.00.00.5CONCON
352224Warwickshire North Craig Tracey72,27765.352.339.32.22.92.80.00.00.5CONCON
363213Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard68,64272.150.836.52.76.32.50.00.01.3CONCON
369207Burton Andrew Griffiths73,95467.553.438.22.52.92.50.00.00.5CONCON
371205Dudley South Mike Wood61,32362.451.936.61.67.61.90.00.00.5CONCON
394182Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley66,00967.653.534.33.32.92.10.03.40.5CONCON
409167Wyre Forest Mark Garnier77,73465.853.832.73.86.42.90.00.00.5CONCON
410166Tamworth Christopher Pincher71,31966.156.435.24.12.90.90.00.00.5CONCON
434142Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell75,65269.956.432.34.32.92.70.00.01.4CONCON
436140Shropshire North Owen Paterson80,53569.055.931.55.32.94.00.00.00.5CONCON
440136Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman71,08871.048.924.17.05.23.30.011.00.5CONCON
452124Bromsgrove Sajid Javid73,57173.557.431.74.62.93.00.00.00.5CONCON
48690Lichfield Michael Fabricant74,43071.959.029.24.92.93.50.00.00.5CONCON
49185Stone Bill Cash67,82473.858.628.64.45.72.30.00.00.5CONCON
49680Meriden Caroline Spelman81,43767.157.427.24.86.63.50.00.00.5CONCON
49878Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright66,32377.456.225.99.54.83.10.00.00.5CONCON
50175Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton60,36366.760.830.23.32.90.90.00.01.9CONCON
50868Solihull Julian Knight77,78473.053.522.215.65.22.90.00.00.5CONCON
51561Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin74,38575.956.924.19.35.63.70.00.00.5CONCON
52650Ludlow Philip Dunne68,03473.458.324.710.62.93.00.00.00.5CONCON
53640Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi72,60972.357.622.612.03.03.40.00.01.4CONCON
54927Worcestershire Mid Nigel Huddleston76,06572.460.723.36.25.93.30.00.00.5CONCON
55620Herefordshire North Bill Wiggin67,75174.157.419.311.62.96.40.00.02.4CONCON
56115Staffordshire South Gavin Williamson73,45369.665.225.62.62.93.20.00.00.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.