| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 21.7% | 1 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 22.6% | 1 | 20 | -19 | 19 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 9.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 27.1% | 21 | 0 | +21 | 21 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 11.1% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 8.4% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aldridge-Brownhills', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Lichfield (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 299 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 9.0 | 30.9 | 7.6 | 14.4 | 27.5 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 291 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 5.7 | 24.9 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 37.2 | 18.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 84 | 288 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 17.2 | 35.9 | 8.0 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 101 | 271 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 10.1 | 26.4 | 6.1 | 13.4 | 20.2 | 23.7 | 0.0 | MIN | LAB |
| 113 | 259 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 11.6 | 31.8 | 6.1 | 19.7 | 23.2 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 130 | 242 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 10.1 | 32.0 | 4.3 | 21.5 | 21.7 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 150 | 222 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 4.6 | 42.9 | 1.1 | 33.8 | 4.8 | 12.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 151 | 221 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 6.1 | 44.8 | 2.1 | 35.8 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 156 | 216 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 18.8 | 30.8 | 7.6 | 22.2 | 14.2 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 158 | 214 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 11.9 | 30.8 | 4.8 | 22.4 | 19.2 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 165 | 207 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 6.1 | 44.2 | 1.8 | 36.5 | 3.5 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 166 | 206 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 5.0 | 43.5 | 1.4 | 35.9 | 4.8 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 168 | 204 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 5.5 | 42.4 | 1.4 | 34.8 | 3.9 | 12.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 186 | 186 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 21.0 | 29.9 | 5.9 | 24.3 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 191 | 181 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 4.7 | 41.7 | 1.2 | 36.6 | 4.3 | 11.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 211 | 161 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 9.1 | 29.7 | 3.4 | 26.6 | 15.5 | 15.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 216 | 156 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 6.6 | 42.3 | 3.4 | 39.6 | 1.9 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 222 | 150 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 5.2 | 39.5 | 1.4 | 37.3 | 3.2 | 13.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 226 | 146 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 18.6 | 24.7 | 7.4 | 23.0 | 14.6 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 232 | 140 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 8.9 | 29.6 | 6.3 | 28.3 | 10.0 | 16.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 248 | 123 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 34.8 | 22.4 | 8.0 | 22.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 263 | 109 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 22.2 | 26.3 | 7.1 | 28.1 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 268 | 103 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 33.2 | 20.8 | 7.9 | 23.4 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 278 | 94 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 25.0 | 24.1 | 7.9 | 27.3 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 279 | 93 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 12.0 | 32.8 | 3.9 | 36.1 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 290 | 82 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 11.9 | 31.5 | 3.0 | 35.8 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 299 | 72 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 30.2 | 17.9 | 15.3 | 23.5 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 309 | 63 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 23.6 | 22.8 | 6.1 | 29.4 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 310 | 62 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 22.7 | 23.2 | 5.8 | 29.9 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 312 | 60 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 20.4 | 22.6 | 6.5 | 29.4 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 314 | 57 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 32.0 | 17.1 | 12.3 | 24.1 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 320 | 52 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 24.8 | 23.3 | 6.5 | 30.7 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 323 | 49 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 8.4 | 30.2 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 328 | 44 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 26.4 | 22.4 | 8.0 | 30.3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 335 | 37 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 12.7 | 26.7 | 3.3 | 35.6 | 7.4 | 14.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 336 | 36 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 19.5 | 21.8 | 6.5 | 30.7 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 336 | 35 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 30.9 | 17.4 | 11.6 | 26.4 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 336 | 35 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 30.1 | 16.8 | 9.2 | 26.2 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 342 | 30 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 15.2 | 26.9 | 4.5 | 37.4 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 344 | 28 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 21.9 | 21.2 | 8.5 | 31.6 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 351 | 21 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 23.5 | 21.5 | 5.5 | 33.1 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 353 | 19 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 30.2 | 18.4 | 7.4 | 30.3 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 354 | 17 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 26.0 | 9.2 | 34.2 | 21.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 357 | 15 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 28.0 | 20.7 | 6.1 | 33.4 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 360 | 12 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 19.7 | 21.4 | 5.9 | 34.4 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 361 | 10 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 30.3 | 16.2 | 9.7 | 29.5 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 363 | 9 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 24.5 | 20.7 | 5.7 | 34.7 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 364 | 8 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 20.6 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 34.1 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 365 | 7 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 29.4 | 17.4 | 5.1 | 32.0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 366 | 5 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 27.4 | 11.1 | 22.9 | 26.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 45.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 29.6 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 44.0 | 27.3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 368 | 3 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 43.8 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 29.5 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 39.1 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 29.7 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 0.0 | Green | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 44.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 31.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 44.3 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 33.6 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 368 | 3 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 44.2 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 33.6 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.