West Midlands: Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 27.6%15 21.0%11+015
LAB 34.0%38 17.7%033-335
LIB 8.8%2 10.7%00+02
Reform 18.1%0 30.2%320+3232
Green 6.6%1 12.1%21+12
Other 4.9%1 8.3%00+01

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Warwick and Leamington' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Kingswinford and South Staffordshire', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Lichfield (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Warwick and Leamington (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
44307Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,29464.513.537.27.525.810.15.80.0LABLAB
86264Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood83,69343.75.318.85.913.338.518.30.0LABGreen
95256Worcester Tom Collins74,93161.45.842.52.537.83.77.70.0LABLAB
114237Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,05756.05.841.62.138.83.87.90.0LABLAB
132219Birmingham Selly Oak Alistair Carns75,67850.810.924.97.624.324.77.50.0LABLAB
139212Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Kaur Gill71,78752.115.229.27.529.012.76.40.0LABLAB
147203Birmingham Perry Barr Ayoub Khan76,35049.19.418.37.818.922.023.70.0MINMIN
150201West Bromwich Sarah Coombes74,02649.36.935.72.736.56.212.00.0LABReform
154197Coventry East Mary Creagh75,80148.811.225.16.026.420.410.80.0LABReform
159192Telford Shaun Davies73,80855.24.937.11.739.43.513.30.0LABReform
173178Smethwick Gurinder Singh Josan72,86348.29.423.75.727.323.510.30.0LABReform
174177Wolverhampton West Warinder Juss77,85156.120.324.47.328.012.67.50.0LABReform
178173Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden77,47343.19.627.94.231.813.812.80.0LABReform
192159Shrewsbury Julia Buckley76,63367.312.630.810.035.44.96.20.0LABReform
221130Stafford Leigh Ingham70,60865.221.522.98.530.110.46.50.0LABReform
223127Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Tahir Ali76,93654.17.816.49.223.832.210.60.0LABGreen
25299Rugby John Anthony Slinger74,90165.424.320.19.429.69.27.30.0LABReform
26685Birmingham Erdington Paulette Hamilton77,46343.612.821.46.932.217.49.40.0LABReform
26982Birmingham Northfield Laurence Turner74,04850.817.521.97.833.011.18.70.0LABReform
27675Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell73,69347.911.122.75.534.614.611.50.0LABReform
28071Newcastle-under-Lyme Adam Jogee67,83958.421.619.39.932.010.07.30.0LABReform
29358Nuneaton Jodie Gosling71,66257.519.718.67.931.912.59.50.0LABReform
29457Coventry South Zarah Sultana76,26256.017.915.79.429.016.511.60.0LABReform
29952Redditch Christopher James Bloore71,03859.722.918.37.532.39.69.30.0LABReform
30051Wolverhampton North East Sureena Brackenridge70,71547.118.818.57.832.711.710.50.0LABReform
30150Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Liam Byrne77,73743.910.116.85.631.120.615.70.0LABReform
30744Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips73,20349.410.815.310.730.915.316.90.0LABReform
30843Halesowen Alex Ballinger68,54956.321.217.810.133.59.77.60.0LABReform
31041Stourbridge Cat Eccles68,31158.425.318.07.533.98.17.30.0LABReform
31239Burton and Uttoxeter Jacob Collier77,99458.522.017.77.133.610.19.40.0LABReform
31535Stratford-on-Avon Manuela Perteghella75,71469.925.36.135.822.85.44.60.0LIBLIB
31932Walsall and Bloxwich Valerie Vaz75,96849.016.718.06.135.613.510.20.0LABReform
32031Stoke-on-Trent North David Williams69,79051.817.319.86.837.88.310.00.0LABReform
32130Tipton and Wednesbury Antonia Bance74,10043.015.517.95.535.910.914.30.0LABReform
32229Cannock Chase Josh Newbury76,97455.819.018.37.036.49.49.90.0LABReform
32228Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright74,92371.239.99.711.027.97.04.50.0CONCON
32427Tamworth Sarah Edwards75,05958.323.417.26.535.97.79.40.0LABReform
32426Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell74,08065.245.99.34.728.46.94.60.0CONCON
32823Lichfield Dave Robertson76,11864.532.114.47.233.95.76.70.0LABReform
33020Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Gavin Williamson71,56159.847.39.04.729.05.84.10.0CONCON
33219Shropshire South Stuart Anderson76,72367.326.77.424.628.46.95.90.0CONReform
33417Dudley Sonia Kumar70,15151.019.915.77.337.09.710.40.0LABReform
33416Solihull West and Shirley Neil Shastri-Hurst71,81365.344.47.87.129.06.84.80.0CONCON
33713Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard78,94263.439.78.16.030.97.47.80.0CONCON
33813Warwickshire North and Bedworth Rachel Margaret Taylor69,75258.727.614.85.737.76.37.80.0LABReform
34010Bromsgrove Bradley Anthony Thomas76,46865.940.97.87.331.85.66.50.0CONCON
34010Meriden and Solihull East Saqib Bhatti73,65959.844.07.45.031.96.45.30.0CONCON
34010Herefordshire North Ellie Chowns72,79769.233.76.67.231.314.96.30.0GreenCON
34010Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,20363.139.08.36.433.65.77.00.0CONCON
34010Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin79,24269.042.46.08.731.66.34.90.0CONCON
34010Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley69,89262.036.09.93.935.76.58.10.0CONCON
3428Wyre Forest Mark Garnier77,39458.339.18.35.035.65.86.20.0CONCON
3428Droitwich and Evesham Nigel Huddleston76,62464.743.16.65.534.05.75.10.0CONCON
3438Stoke-on-Trent South Allison Gardner68,26360.036.810.24.238.24.36.40.0LABReform
3446Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton70,87157.742.96.84.036.15.15.20.0CONCON
3446Shropshire North Helen Morgan77,59463.98.22.449.931.82.25.60.0LIBLIB
3446Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Mike Wood71,66263.042.86.94.136.44.75.10.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.