| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 21.5% | 1 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 25.2% | 2 | 13 | -11 | 27 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 7.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 25.9% | 15 | 0 | +15 | 15 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 10.6% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 9.4% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Herefordshire North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Halesowen (prediction: LAB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Ladywood (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 365 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 5.3 | 37.2 | 0.8 | 10.9 | 36.4 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 119 | 307 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 8.7 | 33.9 | 2.5 | 15.9 | 31.9 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 121 | 305 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 8.2 | 47.2 | 1.8 | 29.4 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 129 | 297 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 9.4 | 42.1 | 1.9 | 24.9 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 130 | 296 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 5.3 | 49.6 | 0.7 | 32.5 | 2.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 133 | 293 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 17.7 | 35.6 | 7.3 | 18.6 | 14.7 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 151 | 275 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 4.8 | 47.5 | 0.6 | 32.2 | 2.1 | 12.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 161 | 265 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 12.8 | 34.3 | 4.2 | 19.6 | 19.4 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 165 | 261 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 4.4 | 46.7 | 0.5 | 32.2 | 1.9 | 14.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 207 | 219 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 18.3 | 32.7 | 6.4 | 21.6 | 13.9 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 209 | 217 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 11.4 | 33.6 | 2.9 | 22.6 | 18.1 | 11.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 213 | 213 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 5.4 | 46.2 | 0.6 | 35.6 | 1.7 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 225 | 201 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 6.4 | 45.7 | 0.8 | 35.9 | 1.8 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 227 | 199 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 15.8 | 33.9 | 5.2 | 24.3 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 235 | 191 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 19.7 | 32.7 | 4.7 | 23.8 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 237 | 189 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 4.9 | 43.9 | 0.5 | 35.0 | 1.8 | 13.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 248 | 178 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 16.6 | 28.2 | 4.9 | 20.0 | 17.4 | 12.9 | 0.0 | MIN | LAB |
| 262 | 164 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 9.1 | 42.8 | 1.3 | 35.6 | 2.8 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 266 | 160 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 22.9 | 31.8 | 4.6 | 24.9 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 272 | 154 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 16.7 | 34.0 | 8.7 | 27.3 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 299 | 127 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 27.0 | 27.1 | 5.8 | 22.5 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 310 | 116 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 21.4 | 31.0 | 5.0 | 27.6 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 320 | 106 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 17.9 | 32.7 | 3.1 | 30.1 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 322 | 104 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 17.9 | 28.1 | 4.9 | 25.9 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 332 | 94 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 19.4 | 30.9 | 5.0 | 29.7 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 333 | 93 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 24.1 | 27.3 | 6.6 | 26.2 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 334 | 91 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 28.3 | 21.9 | 8.6 | 21.0 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 335 | 91 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 6.4 | 41.0 | 0.6 | 40.1 | 1.3 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 336 | 89 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 31.1 | 23.7 | 7.1 | 23.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 344 | 81 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 27.2 | 20.9 | 14.0 | 21.5 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 346 | 79 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 25.2 | 21.5 | 11.7 | 22.2 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 351 | 74 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 29.9 | 19.8 | 12.4 | 21.8 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 353 | 73 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 13.0 | 25.3 | 2.5 | 27.4 | 19.0 | 12.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 355 | 71 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 9.5 | 35.1 | 1.3 | 37.6 | 4.4 | 12.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 358 | 68 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 16.4 | 31.8 | 2.5 | 34.6 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 359 | 66 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 28.1 | 19.8 | 11.0 | 22.7 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 360 | 66 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 12.9 | 27.1 | 6.6 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 11.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 366 | 59 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 27.4 | 21.4 | 7.2 | 24.8 | 6.9 | 12.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 366 | 59 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 26.4 | 21.8 | 7.1 | 25.4 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 371 | 55 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 23.4 | 25.6 | 5.1 | 29.6 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 376 | 50 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 26.0 | 24.5 | 6.5 | 29.1 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 380 | 46 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 22.8 | 25.0 | 4.1 | 29.8 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 381 | 45 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 23.7 | 24.6 | 4.8 | 29.4 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 388 | 38 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 13.2 | 28.9 | 2.9 | 34.7 | 7.7 | 12.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 392 | 34 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 22.9 | 23.8 | 4.2 | 30.5 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 397 | 28 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 31.5 | 12.9 | 18.7 | 21.2 | 4.9 | 10.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 398 | 28 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 25.2 | 21.6 | 4.9 | 30.0 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 399 | 27 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 24.9 | 23.4 | 5.1 | 31.9 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 401 | 25 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 21.9 | 24.5 | 4.1 | 33.2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 406 | 20 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 22.4 | 23.7 | 4.2 | 33.4 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 407 | 19 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 23.1 | 23.1 | 4.4 | 32.9 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 409 | 16 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 34.2 | 15.2 | 5.4 | 27.5 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 411 | 14 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 31.9 | 17.7 | 4.1 | 30.2 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 414 | 11 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 28.0 | 9.0 | 31.2 | 23.4 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 416 | 9 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 20.8 | 9.5 | 34.0 | 26.1 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 418 | 7 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 43.9 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 26.1 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 419 | 6 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 40.9 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 27.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 0.0 | Green | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.