| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 22.1% | 1 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 20.0% | 0 | 28 | -28 | 10 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 9.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 30.8% | 29 | 0 | +29 | 29 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 10.5% | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 6.7% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Staffordshire Moorlands', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Staffordshire Moorlands (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Ladywood (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 299 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 6.7 | 22.5 | 4.4 | 11.8 | 33.9 | 20.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 47 | 291 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 10.2 | 22.4 | 9.1 | 13.8 | 25.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | LAB | Green |
| 52 | 287 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 20.3 | 28.3 | 8.5 | 20.0 | 15.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 57 | 282 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 7.6 | 43.6 | 2.8 | 35.7 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 4.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 279 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 18.8 | 27.7 | 10.4 | 20.3 | 19.8 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 64 | 275 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 19.3 | 27.2 | 8.8 | 20.1 | 18.2 | 0.0 | 6.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 71 | 268 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 4.7 | 41.4 | 1.5 | 35.2 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 3.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 83 | 255 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 12.3 | 19.5 | 5.4 | 15.2 | 22.7 | 24.3 | 0.8 | MIN | MIN |
| 86 | 253 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 23.8 | 26.7 | 7.7 | 22.6 | 12.5 | 2.4 | 4.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 114 | 225 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 5.2 | 40.7 | 1.5 | 38.9 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 2.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 125 | 214 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 19.9 | 25.5 | 15.0 | 24.9 | 11.3 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 128 | 211 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 12.2 | 26.1 | 7.1 | 25.7 | 21.9 | 0.0 | 7.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 130 | 209 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 11.5 | 35.4 | 4.0 | 35.1 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 7.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 142 | 197 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 5.1 | 38.7 | 1.6 | 40.6 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 9.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 157 | 182 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 17.1 | 25.3 | 9.2 | 28.4 | 16.3 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 160 | 178 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 11.6 | 16.2 | 9.2 | 19.8 | 19.0 | 24.2 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 191 | 148 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 27.8 | 23.1 | 8.5 | 29.7 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 199 | 140 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 19.3 | 23.6 | 7.7 | 31.1 | 13.3 | 0.0 | 5.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 203 | 135 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 32.8 | 18.8 | 7.9 | 27.1 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 212 | 127 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 14.8 | 18.2 | 5.8 | 27.5 | 12.3 | 21.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 218 | 121 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 21.2 | 22.7 | 9.3 | 32.3 | 11.6 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 222 | 117 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 7.6 | 31.2 | 2.2 | 41.2 | 5.3 | 12.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 227 | 112 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 10.8 | 17.0 | 4.2 | 27.8 | 16.5 | 23.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 233 | 106 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 13.8 | 29.3 | 5.2 | 40.5 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 238 | 101 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 20.5 | 22.2 | 10.1 | 34.1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 240 | 99 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 6.7 | 32.3 | 2.3 | 44.4 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 9.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 241 | 98 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 20.1 | 23.2 | 6.8 | 35.3 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 7.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 245 | 94 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 21.3 | 20.8 | 10.7 | 33.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 247 | 92 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 27.1 | 19.3 | 5.9 | 31.8 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 276 | 63 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 20.2 | 18.4 | 7.7 | 34.8 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 277 | 62 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 19.5 | 21.4 | 7.9 | 37.9 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 281 | 58 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 20.0 | 20.5 | 6.0 | 37.3 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 7.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 281 | 57 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 42.1 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 30.2 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | CON | CON |
| 282 | 57 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 31.2 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 35.1 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 5.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 284 | 54 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 28.0 | 9.0 | 28.6 | 26.6 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 285 | 53 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 35.2 | 16.4 | 6.5 | 34.4 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | CON |
| 286 | 52 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 40.6 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 29.4 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | CON | CON |
| 289 | 50 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 25.8 | 20.1 | 6.1 | 38.9 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 290 | 49 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 28.7 | 15.9 | 4.5 | 34.7 | 5.3 | 10.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 290 | 48 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 18.8 | 8.2 | 37.3 | 27.1 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 294 | 44 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 42.0 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 29.1 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 298 | 41 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 30.7 | 16.2 | 6.4 | 37.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 5.1 | CON | Reform |
| 301 | 38 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 32.4 | 13.7 | 4.3 | 36.4 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 302 | 37 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 28.5 | 11.1 | 17.2 | 34.0 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 2.5 | CON | Reform |
| 303 | 36 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 24.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 32.0 | 24.1 | 0.0 | 3.6 | Green | Reform |
| 305 | 34 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 7.6 | 42.0 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 308 | 31 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 20.8 | 17.0 | 7.7 | 40.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 310 | 28 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 42.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 34.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 3.5 | CON | CON |
| 312 | 26 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 41.0 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 35.4 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 3.4 | CON | CON |
| 313 | 26 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 31.3 | 14.6 | 4.4 | 40.0 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 313 | 25 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 41.5 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 35.9 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 3.4 | CON | CON |
| 315 | 23 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 40.0 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 36.5 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 3.3 | CON | CON |
| 315 | 23 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 37.4 | 8.2 | 13.9 | 34.6 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | CON | CON |
| 316 | 23 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 37.1 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 38.5 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 3.9 | CON | Reform |
| 320 | 18 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 41.1 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 37.2 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 3.4 | CON | CON |
| 321 | 17 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 41.5 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 38.1 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 3.9 | CON | CON |
| 322 | 17 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 29.2 | 14.2 | 5.3 | 44.6 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | CON | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.