West Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	49.0%	35	46.4%	+0	35
LAB	42.5%	24	41.3%	+0	24
LIB	4.4%	0	5.4%	+0	0
UKIP	1.8%	0	3.3%	+0	0
Green	1.7%	0	2.5%	+0	0
Minor	0.6%	0	1.1%	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Birmingham Ladywood, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Staffordshire South, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stafford (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warwick and Leamington (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
8	562	Birmingham Ladywood	Shabana Mahmood	70,023	59.0	11.4	81.5	3.5	1.1	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
12	558	Birmingham Hodge Hill	Liam Byrne	75,698	61.3	12.3	79.9	2.5	3.4	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
17	553	Birmingham Hall Green	Roger Godsiff	78,271	69.4	13.1	76.4	6.6	1.2	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
63	507	Birmingham Perry Barr	Khalid Mahmood	70,106	63.0	23.9	66.9	3.4	1.5	2.2	0.0	1.3	0.8	LAB	LAB
66	504	Warley	John Spellar	63,724	63.1	23.5	66.0	2.9	4.8	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
84	486	Birmingham Yardley	Jess Phillips	72,581	61.3	17.2	55.9	18.9	5.8	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
95	475	Coventry North East	Colleen Fletcher	75,792	61.4	27.3	62.3	3.4	4.4	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
109	461	Birmingham Selly Oak	Steve McCabe	74,370	65.9	29.2	61.8	4.3	1.5	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
151	419	Wolverhampton South East	Pat McFadden	69,951	51.9	32.1	57.0	2.2	6.1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
165	405	Walsall South	Valerie Vaz	67,417	65.4	34.5	56.2	2.3	5.6	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
170	400	West Bromwich East	Tom Watson	63,833	61.3	35.6	56.8	2.6	1.5	2.2	0.0	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
171	399	Birmingham Erdington	Jack Dromey	65,067	57.2	35.7	56.8	3.0	1.5	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
180	390	Coventry North West	Geoffrey Robinson	75,214	66.3	34.1	52.8	3.5	4.5	2.2	0.0	2.3	0.6	LAB	LAB
181	389	Coventry South	James Cunningham	70,754	66.4	35.5	53.9	3.8	3.7	2.1	0.0	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
186	384	Birmingham Edgbaston	Preet Gill	68,091	64.0	36.8	54.1	4.5	1.5	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
197	373	Wolverhampton North East	Emma Reynolds	60,799	60.0	37.6	51.6	2.5	5.5	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
198	372	West Bromwich West	Adrian Bailey	65,956	54.7	37.0	50.9	1.9	7.9	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
201	369	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Gareth Snell	58,196	57.0	37.1	50.4	3.0	6.3	2.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
209	361	Birmingham Northfield	Richard Burden	72,322	61.3	40.0	52.0	3.1	1.5	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
230	340	Stoke-on-Trent North	Ruth Smeeth	72,368	57.7	42.6	49.7	3.1	1.5	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
232	338	Wolverhampton South West	Eleanor Smith	60,003	70.6	41.5	48.2	2.8	3.9	2.2	0.0	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
241	329	Warwick and Leamington	Matt Western	74,237	72.8	41.8	45.5	6.2	3.0	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
255	315	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Paul Farrelly	65,540	66.9	45.4	47.0	4.7	1.5	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
256	314	Dudley North	Ian Austin	62,043	62.7	43.8	45.3	1.9	7.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
265	305	Stoke-on-Trent South	Jack Brereton	66,046	63.1	46.4	46.3	2.9	1.5	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
267	303	Telford	Lucy Allan	68,164	65.6	46.1	45.9	3.1	1.5	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
289	281	Worcester	Robin Walker	72,815	70.6	45.4	42.0	4.4	4.1	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
299	271	Walsall North	Eddie Hughes	67,309	56.6	47.0	41.6	2.5	7.5	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
311	259	Nuneaton	Marcus Jones	69,201	66.6	48.9	40.1	2.9	5.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
317	253	Shrewsbury and Atcham	Daniel Kawczynski	79,043	73.6	47.3	37.4	8.3	3.8	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
319	251	Halesowen and Rowley Regis	James Morris	68,856	64.5	49.2	38.8	2.9	6.3	1.9	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
328	242	Stafford	Jeremy Lefroy	68,445	75.9	52.1	38.7	3.9	1.5	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
334	236	Rugby	Mark Pawsey	72,175	71.1	51.6	37.1	6.5	1.5	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
335	235	Stourbridge	Margot James	70,215	67.1	51.9	37.1	3.3	5.3	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
336	234	Redditch	Rachel Maclean	64,334	70.3	49.6	34.9	3.5	4.5	1.7	0.0	5.0	0.8	CON	CON
342	228	Cannock Chase	Amanda Milling	74,540	64.2	52.3	36.3	2.6	5.7	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
344	226	Warwickshire North	Craig Tracey	72,277	65.3	54.3	37.7	3.1	1.5	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
353	217	Wrekin, The	Mark Pritchard	68,642	72.1	52.8	34.9	3.7	4.8	2.5	0.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
359	211	Burton	Andrew Griffiths	73,954	67.5	55.3	36.7	3.5	1.5	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
360	210	Dudley South	Mike Wood	61,323	62.4	53.8	35.1	2.6	6.2	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
386	184	Staffordshire Moorlands	Karen Bradley	66,009	67.6	55.5	32.7	4.3	1.5	2.1	0.0	3.4	0.6	CON	CON
402	168	Wyre Forest	Mark Garnier	77,734	65.8	55.7	31.1	4.8	4.9	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
403	167	Tamworth	Christopher Pincher	71,319	66.1	58.3	33.6	5.1	1.5	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
426	144	Sutton Coldfield	Andrew Mitchell	75,652	69.9	58.3	30.8	5.3	1.5	2.7	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
429	141	Shropshire North	Owen Paterson	80,535	69.0	57.8	29.9	6.3	1.5	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
433	137	Hereford and South Herefordshire	Jesse Norman	71,088	71.0	50.8	22.6	8.0	3.8	3.3	0.0	11.0	0.6	CON	CON
444	126	Bromsgrove	Sajid Javid	73,571	73.5	59.3	30.1	5.6	1.5	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
478	92	Lichfield	Michael Fabricant	74,430	71.9	60.9	27.7	5.9	1.5	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
483	87	Stone	Bill Cash	67,824	73.8	60.5	27.0	5.4	4.2	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
487	83	Meriden	Caroline Spelman	81,437	67.1	59.3	25.7	5.8	5.2	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
491	79	Kenilworth and Southam	Jeremy Wright	66,323	77.4	58.1	24.4	10.5	3.3	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
494	76	Aldridge-Brownhills	Wendy Morton	60,363	66.7	62.7	28.7	4.3	1.5	0.9	0.0	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
499	71	Solihull	Julian Knight	77,784	73.0	55.5	20.7	16.6	3.7	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
508	62	Worcestershire West	Harriett Baldwin	74,385	75.9	58.8	22.5	10.4	4.1	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
520	50	Ludlow	Philip Dunne	68,034	73.4	60.2	23.1	11.6	1.5	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
530	40	Stratford-on-Avon	Nadhim Zahawi	72,609	72.3	59.5	21.1	13.1	1.5	3.4	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
543	27	Worcestershire Mid	Nigel Huddleston	76,065	72.4	62.6	21.8	7.2	4.5	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
551	19	Herefordshire North	Bill Wiggin	67,751	74.1	59.3	17.8	12.6	1.4	6.4	0.0	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
554	16	Staffordshire South	Gavin Williamson	73,453	69.6	67.1	24.1	3.6	1.5	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.