West Midlands: Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 27.6%15 19.4%013-132
LAB 34.0%38 20.7%035-353
LIB 8.8%2 11.5%00+02
Reform 18.1%0 34.9%470+4747
Green 6.6%1 9.5%00+01
Other 4.9%1 4.0%21+12

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Warwick and Leamington' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Herefordshire North', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Herefordshire North (prediction: Green), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warwick and Leamington (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
75112Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,29464.516.536.111.522.912.30.00.7LABLAB
86100Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden77,47343.18.926.96.445.49.13.20.0LABReform
8799Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,05756.013.131.08.635.011.20.01.2LABReform
8997Birmingham Selly Oak Alistair Carns75,67850.811.929.310.230.214.00.04.4LABReform
8997Smethwick Gurinder Singh Josan72,86348.29.326.87.736.511.35.82.6LABReform
9394Shrewsbury Julia Buckley76,63367.315.032.014.129.98.00.01.0LABLAB
9987Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood83,69343.74.420.911.022.117.124.50.0LABMIN
9987Coventry East Mary Creagh75,80148.812.028.57.537.510.42.91.3LABReform
10384Coventry South Zarah Sultana76,26256.015.631.610.329.010.41.91.2LABLAB
10581West Bromwich Sarah Coombes74,02649.311.026.68.241.89.70.02.7LABReform
11373Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell73,69347.99.823.96.846.19.10.04.2LABReform
11868Birmingham Erdington Paulette Hamilton77,46343.611.124.17.642.710.30.04.1LABReform
11868Worcester Tom Collins74,93161.416.628.710.930.512.20.01.1LABReform
11868Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Kaur Gill71,78752.116.028.110.629.111.50.04.7LABReform
11868Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Tahir Ali76,93654.16.518.515.322.513.823.50.0LABMIN
11868Wolverhampton West Warinder Juss77,85156.115.927.88.533.910.11.12.6LABReform
12165Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips73,20349.48.118.811.631.38.521.70.0LABReform
12165Birmingham Northfield Laurence Turner74,04850.814.825.48.339.710.30.01.5LABReform
12165Birmingham Perry Barr Ayoub Khan76,35049.16.417.09.429.111.825.21.1MINReform
12462Telford Shaun Davies73,80855.215.925.37.539.910.20.01.1LABReform
12561Walsall and Bloxwich Valerie Vaz75,96849.010.319.36.440.39.214.50.0LABReform
13155Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Liam Byrne77,73743.99.917.36.737.58.919.70.0LABReform
13353Tipton and Wednesbury Antonia Bance74,10043.013.019.86.050.67.80.02.7LABReform
13848Wolverhampton North East Sureena Brackenridge70,71547.118.121.97.242.59.20.01.2LABReform
14145Stoke-on-Trent North David Williams69,79051.817.821.26.643.68.30.02.5LABReform
14145Halesowen Alex Ballinger68,54956.318.521.89.739.89.20.01.1LABReform
14145Newcastle-under-Lyme Adam Jogee67,83958.420.823.78.337.19.00.01.1LABReform
14442Stafford Leigh Ingham70,60865.223.725.48.031.610.00.01.4LABReform
14541Rugby John Anthony Slinger74,90165.423.925.39.930.29.40.01.2LABReform
14541Cannock Chase Josh Newbury76,97455.819.320.56.744.57.90.01.1LABReform
14541Nuneaton Jodie Gosling71,66257.519.620.77.638.89.83.60.0LABReform
14541Stourbridge Cat Eccles68,31158.421.021.98.436.97.93.70.0LABReform
14541Warwickshire North and Bedworth Rachel Margaret Taylor69,75258.720.820.67.342.97.40.01.0LABReform
14541Dudley Sonia Kumar70,15151.018.117.37.346.27.22.01.9LABReform
14541Burton and Uttoxeter Jacob Collier77,99458.521.220.37.937.68.05.00.0LABReform
14541Tamworth Sarah Edwards75,05958.322.020.67.641.07.00.90.9LABReform
14838Stoke-on-Trent South Allison Gardner68,26360.021.919.48.440.66.90.02.7LABReform
14838Lichfield Dave Robertson76,11864.524.522.010.934.36.90.01.4LABReform
14838Redditch Christopher James Bloore71,03859.723.220.58.936.48.03.10.0LABReform
15135Wyre Forest Mark Garnier77,39458.322.118.19.639.08.00.03.1CONReform
15234Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,20363.123.218.512.935.09.10.01.2CONReform
15333Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard78,94263.423.318.512.135.58.90.01.5CONReform
15333Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley69,89262.024.219.27.640.57.60.01.0CONReform
15729Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell74,08065.228.521.710.329.27.92.40.0CONReform
15729Bromsgrove Bradley Anthony Thomas76,46865.924.717.716.032.46.60.42.3CONReform
16224Solihull West and Shirley Neil Shastri-Hurst71,81365.326.016.718.027.99.02.30.0CONReform
16224Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton70,87157.725.716.38.141.86.90.01.1CONReform
16224Shropshire North Helen Morgan77,59463.917.06.837.732.15.10.01.2LIBLIB
16224Meriden and Solihull East Saqib Bhatti73,65959.827.917.211.334.08.70.00.9CONReform
16423Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Gavin Williamson71,56159.831.820.510.924.18.30.04.5CONCON
16521Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Mike Wood71,66263.028.016.18.538.76.80.01.9CONReform
16621Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright74,92371.230.017.819.123.38.50.01.4CONCON
16917Droitwich and Evesham Nigel Huddleston76,62464.728.814.212.234.88.80.01.2CONReform
17115Shropshire South Stuart Anderson76,72367.325.010.024.933.25.90.01.0CONReform
17313Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin79,24269.027.211.021.728.99.90.01.3CONReform
17511Stratford-on-Avon Manuela Perteghella75,71469.924.47.135.327.14.70.01.3LIBLIB
1797Herefordshire North Ellie Chowns72,79769.223.95.56.930.232.30.01.2GreenGreen

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.