West Midlands: Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 27.6%15 22.1%14-312
LAB 34.0%38 20.0%028-2810
LIB 8.8%2 9.9%00+02
Reform 18.1%0 30.8%290+2929
Green 6.6%1 10.5%21+12
Other 4.9%1 6.7%10+12

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Staffordshire Moorlands', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Staffordshire Moorlands (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Ladywood (prediction: Green).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
39299Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood83,69343.76.722.54.411.833.920.80.0LABGreen
47291Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Tahir Ali76,93654.110.222.49.113.825.912.36.3LABGreen
52287Coventry South Zarah Sultana76,26256.020.328.38.520.015.84.82.2LABLAB
57282Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,05756.07.643.62.835.75.60.04.6LABLAB
60279Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,29464.518.827.710.420.319.80.03.1LABLAB
64275Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Kaur Gill71,78752.119.327.28.820.118.20.06.4LABLAB
71268Smethwick Gurinder Singh Josan72,86348.24.741.41.535.24.69.53.1LABLAB
83255Birmingham Perry Barr Ayoub Khan76,35049.112.319.55.415.222.724.30.8MINMIN
86253Wolverhampton West Warinder Juss77,85156.123.826.77.722.612.52.44.2LABLAB
114225Coventry East Mary Creagh75,80148.85.240.71.538.94.17.12.4LABLAB
125214Shrewsbury Julia Buckley76,63367.319.925.515.024.911.30.03.3LABLAB
128211Birmingham Selly Oak Alistair Carns75,67850.812.226.17.125.721.90.07.1LABLAB
130209West Bromwich Sarah Coombes74,02649.311.535.44.035.16.90.07.1LABLAB
142197Birmingham Erdington Paulette Hamilton77,46343.65.138.71.640.64.20.09.9LABReform
157182Worcester Tom Collins74,93161.417.125.39.228.416.30.03.8LABReform
160178Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips73,20349.411.616.29.219.819.024.20.0LABMIN
191148Rugby John Anthony Slinger74,90165.427.823.18.529.77.50.03.5LABReform
199140Birmingham Northfield Laurence Turner74,04850.819.323.67.731.113.30.05.0LABReform
203135Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell74,08065.232.818.87.927.15.67.70.0CONCON
212127Walsall and Bloxwich Valerie Vaz75,96849.014.818.25.827.512.321.30.0LABReform
218121Stafford Leigh Ingham70,60865.221.222.79.332.311.60.02.9LABReform
222117Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden77,47343.17.631.22.241.25.312.60.0LABReform
227112Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Liam Byrne77,73743.910.817.04.227.816.523.70.0LABReform
233106Telford Shaun Davies73,80855.213.829.35.240.57.20.04.1LABReform
238101Newcastle-under-Lyme Adam Jogee67,83958.420.522.210.134.110.00.03.0LABReform
24099Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell73,69347.96.732.32.344.44.70.09.6LABReform
24198Stoke-on-Trent North David Williams69,79051.820.123.26.835.37.70.07.0LABReform
24594Halesowen Alex Ballinger68,54956.321.320.810.733.011.00.03.3LABReform
24792Stourbridge Cat Eccles68,31158.427.119.35.931.86.010.00.0LABReform
27663Nuneaton Jodie Gosling71,66257.520.218.47.734.810.97.90.0LABReform
27762Wolverhampton North East Sureena Brackenridge70,71547.119.521.47.937.910.00.03.3LABReform
28158Tipton and Wednesbury Antonia Bance74,10043.020.020.56.037.38.60.07.6LABReform
28157Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Gavin Williamson71,56159.842.113.46.530.24.00.03.8CONCON
28257Stoke-on-Trent South Allison Gardner68,26360.031.218.06.035.14.50.05.1LABReform
28454Stratford-on-Avon Manuela Perteghella75,71469.928.09.028.626.64.70.03.1LIBLIB
28553Lichfield Dave Robertson76,11864.535.216.46.534.44.10.03.5LABCON
28652Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright74,92371.240.611.011.029.45.30.02.7CONCON
28950Warwickshire North and Bedworth Rachel Margaret Taylor69,75258.725.820.16.138.95.20.03.9LABReform
29049Burton and Uttoxeter Jacob Collier77,99458.528.715.94.534.75.310.80.0LABReform
29048Shropshire North Helen Morgan77,59463.918.88.237.327.15.20.03.4LIBLIB
29444Solihull West and Shirley Neil Shastri-Hurst71,81365.342.08.97.029.15.77.30.0CONCON
29841Wyre Forest Mark Garnier77,39458.330.716.26.437.04.60.05.1CONReform
30138Redditch Christopher James Bloore71,03859.732.413.74.336.44.78.50.0LABReform
30237Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin79,24269.028.511.117.234.06.60.02.5CONReform
30336Herefordshire North Ellie Chowns72,79769.224.89.26.232.024.10.03.6GreenReform
30534Cannock Chase Josh Newbury76,97455.819.519.07.642.08.60.03.2LABReform
30831Dudley Sonia Kumar70,15151.020.817.07.740.68.03.42.4LABReform
31028Bromsgrove Bradley Anthony Thomas76,46865.942.89.76.034.13.20.73.5CONCON
31226Meriden and Solihull East Saqib Bhatti73,65959.841.010.55.135.44.60.03.4CONCON
31326Tamworth Sarah Edwards75,05958.331.314.64.440.04.13.12.4LABReform
31325Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard78,94263.441.510.54.735.94.10.03.4CONCON
31523Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,20363.140.010.25.636.54.40.03.3CONCON
31523Shropshire South Stuart Anderson76,72367.337.48.213.934.63.30.02.7CONCON
31623Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton70,87157.737.112.04.838.53.60.03.9CONReform
32018Droitwich and Evesham Nigel Huddleston76,62464.741.18.75.837.23.90.03.4CONCON
32117Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Mike Wood71,66263.041.59.54.238.12.80.03.9CONCON
32217Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley69,89262.029.214.25.344.64.00.02.6CONReform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.