Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 37.4%02-215
LAB 49.0%37 48.0%20+239
LIB 5.0%0 5.0%00+00
UKIP 2.6%0 5.6%00+00
Green 1.3%0 2.4%00+00
Minor 1.7%0 1.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Penistone and Stocksbridge (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
25551Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.711.
38538Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.217.469.
45531Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.414.
50526Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.518.666.
53523Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.817.364.
72504Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.921.162.91.511.
78498Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.522.
80496Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.
93483York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.727.
95481Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.728.
97479Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.524.659.81.710.
101475Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.923.958.51.911.
103473Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.628.
107469Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.025.759.
112464Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.827.560.
118458Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.023.455.44.711.
124452Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.327.
136440Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.526.957.
138438Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.430.
139437Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.228.457.
153423Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.916.743.
155421Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.031.356.
157419Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.426.852.
161415Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.930.855.
188388Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.135.854.
191385Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.635.
196380Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.620.737.434.
213363Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.238.751.
214362Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.838.751.
227349Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.340.451.
230346Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.837.247.12.410.
233343Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.539.
237339Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.542.
241335Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.841.948.
248328Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.840.
253323Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.643.
259317Keighley John Grogan71,42972.443.
267309Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.344.345.
271305Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.443.
293283Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.447.745.
308268Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.645.340.
316260Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.048.341.
336240York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.748.135.710.
349227Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.251.336.
380196Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.554.
398178Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.055.733.
403173Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.055.332.
420156Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.257.432.
423153Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.655.
443133Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.957.930.
47997Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.
48492Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.459.627.
50175Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.452.419.
54234Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.560.922.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.