Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 36.7%03-314
LAB 49.0%37 49.4%30+340
LIB 5.0%0 5.0%00+00
UKIP 2.6%0 5.0%00+00
Green 1.3%0 1.8%00+00
Minor 1.7%0 2.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Penistone and Stocksbridge (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
25546Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.710.571.25.23.88.40.00.01.0LABLAB
37534Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.216.770.62.26.73.00.00.00.8LABLAB
45526Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.413.465.01.63.91.50.013.90.6LABLAB
50521Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.517.867.72.58.72.30.00.00.9LABLAB
53518Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.816.665.81.95.41.20.07.81.4LABLAB
71500Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.920.464.31.410.92.00.00.01.0LABLAB
77494Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.521.464.15.06.72.30.00.00.5LABLAB
79492Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.122.464.42.16.72.90.00.01.5LABLAB
91480York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.726.465.64.72.40.50.00.00.5LABLAB
95476Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.727.565.33.82.40.50.00.00.5LABLAB
97474Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.523.961.21.78.90.50.01.82.2LABLAB
100471Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.923.259.91.810.30.50.03.01.2LABLAB
102469Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.627.363.53.72.41.80.00.01.4LABLAB
107464Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.024.960.44.66.92.70.00.00.6LABLAB
111460Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.826.861.81.86.61.60.00.01.5LABLAB
116455Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.022.656.84.611.10.50.03.80.5LABLAB
122449Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.326.359.91.48.50.50.02.90.5LABLAB
133438Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.526.158.73.49.41.90.00.00.5LABLAB
135436Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.429.260.82.62.43.70.00.01.3LABLAB
136435Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.227.758.93.38.80.50.00.00.7LABLAB
150421Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.916.044.535.02.31.80.00.00.5LABLAB
151420Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.030.658.32.32.40.50.03.12.8LABLAB
153418Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.426.153.56.46.41.50.05.50.7LABLAB
157414Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.930.156.42.08.00.50.02.50.5LABLAB
183388Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.135.155.92.32.41.80.02.00.6LABLAB
185386Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.634.454.91.36.71.40.00.90.5LABLAB
190381Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.620.038.834.74.02.00.00.00.6LABLAB
206365Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.237.953.31.92.40.50.03.50.5LABLAB
207364Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.837.953.22.25.60.50.00.00.5LABLAB
220351Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.339.752.41.45.50.50.00.00.5LABLAB
223348Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.836.548.52.39.92.30.00.00.5LABLAB
227344Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.538.449.82.77.00.50.00.01.6LABLAB
230341Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.541.351.32.22.42.30.00.00.5LABLAB
235336Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.841.250.12.02.40.50.02.51.3LABLAB
242329Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.839.446.24.19.30.50.00.00.5LABLAB
247324Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.642.448.14.12.42.00.00.01.0LABLAB
253318Keighley John Grogan71,42972.442.346.92.44.92.00.00.01.5LABLAB
261310Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.343.647.13.32.40.50.02.11.0CONLAB
265306Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.442.445.53.44.91.60.01.80.5CONLAB
288283Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.446.947.12.62.40.50.00.00.5CONLAB
302269Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.644.641.92.75.72.30.01.31.4CONCON
309262Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.047.643.04.12.40.50.01.90.5CONCON
330241York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.747.437.110.32.42.40.00.00.5CONCON
341230Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.250.638.34.42.42.20.01.80.5CONCON
372199Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.553.335.82.36.61.50.00.00.5CONCON
392179Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.054.934.54.15.40.50.00.00.5CONCON
398173Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.054.633.55.12.41.90.02.10.5CONCON
413158Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.256.633.41.95.91.70.00.00.5CONCON
416155Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.654.530.94.06.12.30.01.90.5CONCON
438133Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.957.231.44.82.41.90.01.80.5CONCON
471100Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.156.326.46.95.12.50.01.31.4CONCON
47695Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.458.928.70.02.46.90.02.60.5CONCON
49378Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.451.720.523.52.40.50.00.01.5CONCON
53635Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.560.223.85.92.43.60.03.70.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.