Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 37.7%02-215
LAB 49.0%37 49.0%20+239
LIB 5.0%0 4.6%00+00
UKIP 2.6%0 4.5%00+00
Green 1.3%0 2.2%00+00
Minor 1.7%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Colne Valley (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
25552Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.711.
38539Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.217.770.
45532Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.414.364.
50527Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.518.867.
53524Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.817.665.
71506Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.921.463.91.310.
77500Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.522.463.
80497Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.123.464.
93484York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.727.465.
95482Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.728.565.
97480Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.524.860.
100477Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.924.
102475Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.628.
107470Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.025.960.
112465Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.827.861.
117460Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.023.656.
123454Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.327.
134443Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.527.
137440Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.430.
138439Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.228.758.
151426Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.916.944.
152425Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.031.657.
154423Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.427.
158419Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.931.
185392Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.
188389Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.635.454.
193384Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.621.038.432.
210367Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.238.953.
211366Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.838.952.
225352Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.340.752.
228349Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.837.548.
231346Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.539.449.
235342Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.542.351.
239338Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.842.
246331Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.840.445.
251326Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.643.447.
257320Keighley John Grogan71,42972.443.346.
265312Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.344.646.
269308Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.443.445.
291286Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.447.946.
305272Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.645.641.
313264Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.048.642.
335242York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.748.336.
346231Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.251.637.
380197Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.554.335.
398179Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.055.934.
403174Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.055.633.
419158Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.257.633.
422155Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.655.530.
445132Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.958.
47998Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.
48493Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.459.928.
50176Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.452.720.
54235Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.561.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.