Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 37.7%02-215
LAB 49.0%37 49.0%20+239
LIB 5.0%0 4.6%00+00
UKIP 2.6%0 4.5%00+00
Green 1.3%0 2.2%00+00
Minor 1.7%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Colne Valley (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
25552Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.711.270.94.73.68.70.00.00.9LABLAB
38539Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.217.770.22.06.23.40.00.00.6LABLAB
45532Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.414.364.71.43.51.80.013.90.4LABLAB
50527Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.518.867.32.38.22.70.00.00.7LABLAB
53524Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.817.665.41.74.81.50.07.81.1LABLAB
71506Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.921.463.91.310.32.30.00.00.8LABLAB
77500Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.522.463.74.66.32.70.00.00.2LABLAB
80497Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.123.464.02.06.13.30.00.01.2LABLAB
93484York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.727.465.24.32.01.00.00.00.2LABLAB
95482Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.728.565.03.41.90.90.00.00.2LABLAB
97480Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.524.860.81.58.30.90.01.81.9LABLAB
100477Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.924.259.61.79.80.90.03.00.9LABLAB
102475Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.628.263.13.41.92.20.00.01.2LABLAB
107470Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.025.960.04.26.43.10.00.00.4LABLAB
112465Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.827.861.41.66.01.90.00.01.2LABLAB
117460Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.023.656.54.210.71.00.03.80.2LABLAB
123454Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.327.259.51.38.00.90.02.90.2LABLAB
134443Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.527.158.33.18.92.30.00.00.2LABLAB
137440Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.430.260.42.41.94.10.00.01.0LABLAB
138439Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.228.758.53.08.40.90.00.00.5LABLAB
151426Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.916.944.133.22.82.60.00.00.3LABLAB
152425Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.031.657.92.11.80.90.03.12.6LABLAB
154423Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.427.153.15.86.12.00.05.50.4LABLAB
158419Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.931.156.01.87.50.90.02.50.2LABLAB
185392Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.136.055.52.11.82.20.02.00.3LABLAB
188389Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.635.454.51.16.11.80.00.90.2LABLAB
193384Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.621.038.432.94.42.80.00.00.5LABLAB
210367Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.238.953.01.71.80.90.03.50.2LABLAB
211366Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.838.952.82.05.10.90.00.00.2LABLAB
225352Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.340.752.01.34.90.90.00.00.2LABLAB
228349Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.837.548.12.19.32.70.00.00.2LABLAB
231346Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.539.449.42.56.50.90.00.01.3LABLAB
235342Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.542.351.02.01.82.70.00.00.2LABLAB
239338Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.842.249.71.91.80.90.02.51.0LABLAB
246331Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.840.445.83.78.91.00.00.00.2LABLAB
251326Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.643.447.73.81.92.40.00.00.8LABLAB
257320Keighley John Grogan71,42972.443.346.52.24.32.40.00.01.3LABLAB
265312Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.344.646.73.01.90.90.02.10.8CONLAB
269308Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.443.445.13.14.42.00.01.80.2CONLAB
291286Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.447.946.72.41.90.90.00.00.2CONCON
305272Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.645.641.62.45.22.70.01.31.1CONCON
313264Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.048.642.63.81.91.00.01.90.2CONCON
335242York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.748.336.79.42.33.00.00.00.3CONCON
346231Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.251.637.94.02.02.60.01.80.2CONCON
380197Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.554.335.42.16.11.90.00.00.2CONCON
398179Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.055.934.23.75.01.00.00.00.2CONCON
403174Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.055.633.24.62.02.30.02.10.2CONCON
419158Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.257.633.01.75.42.10.00.00.2CONCON
422155Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.655.530.53.65.62.70.01.90.2CONCON
445132Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.958.231.04.42.02.40.01.80.2CONCON
47998Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.157.226.16.34.83.00.01.31.2CONCON
48493Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.459.928.30.01.77.30.02.60.2CONCON
50176Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.452.720.121.72.81.40.00.01.3CONCON
54235Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.561.223.45.42.04.00.03.70.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.