Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 37.8%02-215
LAB 49.0%37 47.8%20+239
LIB 5.0%0 5.9%00+00
UKIP 2.6%0 4.1%00+00
Green 1.3%0 2.1%00+00
Minor 1.7%0 2.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Penistone and Stocksbridge (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
25545Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.711.369.85.93.38.70.00.01.1LABLAB
38532Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.217.869.03.25.83.40.00.00.9LABLAB
45525Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.414.463.52.43.21.80.013.90.8LABLAB
50520Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.519.066.23.57.82.60.00.01.0LABLAB
53517Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.817.764.22.84.51.50.07.81.5LABLAB
71499Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.921.562.72.410.02.30.00.01.1LABLAB
77493Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.522.562.66.05.82.60.00.00.6LABLAB
79491Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.123.562.83.15.83.30.00.01.6LABLAB
91479York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.727.564.05.61.50.90.00.00.6LABLAB
94476Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.728.663.84.71.50.90.00.00.6LABLAB
97473Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.525.059.62.67.90.90.01.82.3LABLAB
100470Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.924.358.42.89.40.90.03.01.3LABLAB
102468Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.628.461.94.61.52.10.00.01.5LABLAB
106464Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.026.058.85.55.93.00.00.00.7LABLAB
111459Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.827.960.22.75.71.90.00.01.6LABLAB
116454Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.023.855.35.610.20.90.03.80.6LABLAB
122448Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.327.458.32.47.60.90.02.90.6LABLAB
133437Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.527.357.14.48.52.20.00.00.6LABLAB
135435Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.430.359.23.61.54.00.00.01.4LABLAB
136434Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.228.857.44.27.90.90.00.00.8LABLAB
149421Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.917.042.935.91.42.10.00.00.6LABLAB
150420Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.031.756.73.21.50.90.03.12.9LABLAB
152418Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.427.251.97.35.51.80.05.50.8LABLAB
156414Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.931.254.92.97.10.90.02.50.6LABLAB
182388Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.136.254.33.21.52.20.02.00.7LABLAB
184386Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.635.553.32.25.81.80.00.90.6LABLAB
189381Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.621.137.235.63.12.30.00.00.7LABLAB
205365Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.239.151.82.81.50.90.03.50.6LABLAB
206364Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.839.051.73.24.70.90.00.00.6LABLAB
219351Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.340.850.92.34.60.90.00.00.6LABLAB
222348Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.837.647.03.39.02.60.00.00.6LABLAB
225345Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.539.548.23.66.10.90.00.01.7LABLAB
229341Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.542.449.83.11.52.70.00.00.6LABLAB
233337Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.842.348.53.01.50.90.02.51.4LABLAB
240330Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.840.544.65.18.40.90.00.00.6LABLAB
245325Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.643.546.55.11.52.30.00.01.1LABLAB
251319Keighley John Grogan71,42972.443.445.43.34.02.40.00.01.6LABLAB
259311Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.344.745.64.21.50.90.02.11.1CONLAB
263307Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.443.543.94.34.01.90.01.80.6CONLAB
285285Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.448.045.53.51.50.90.00.00.6CONCON
298272Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.645.740.43.64.82.70.01.31.5CONCON
307263Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.048.741.45.11.50.90.01.90.6CONCON
327243York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.748.535.511.21.52.80.00.00.6CONCON
339231Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.251.736.75.31.52.50.01.80.6CONCON
370200Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.554.434.23.35.71.80.00.00.6CONCON
391179Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.056.033.05.04.50.90.00.00.6CONCON
396174Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.055.732.06.01.52.20.02.10.6CONCON
411159Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.257.731.82.85.02.10.00.00.6CONCON
415155Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.655.629.34.95.12.60.01.90.6CONCON
435135Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.958.329.85.81.52.20.01.80.6CONCON
469101Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.157.424.97.84.22.80.01.31.5CONCON
47595Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.460.027.10.91.57.30.02.60.6CONCON
49278Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.452.818.924.41.50.90.00.01.5CONCON
53535Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.561.322.26.81.53.90.03.70.6CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.