Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 40.4%17 37.4%02-215
LAB 49.0%37 48.0%20+239
LIB 5.0%0 5.0%00+00
UKIP 2.6%0 5.6%00+00
Green 1.3%0 2.4%00+00
Minor 1.7%0 1.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Sheffield Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Richmond, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to York Outer (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Penistone and Stocksbridge (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
25551Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield77,56061.711.069.95.24.79.00.00.00.2LABLAB
38538Leeds Central Hilary Benn89,53753.217.469.22.37.43.70.00.00.1LABLAB
45531Bradford West Naz Shah67,56867.414.063.71.64.62.10.013.90.1LABLAB
50526Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Gill Furniss70,34459.518.666.32.69.43.00.00.00.1LABLAB
53523Bradford East Imran Hussain70,38964.817.364.41.96.41.90.07.80.2LABLAB
72504Barnsley Central Dan Jarvis64,20460.921.162.91.511.72.70.00.00.1LABLAB
78498Hull North Diana Johnson64,66657.522.262.75.17.22.80.00.00.0LABLAB
80496Leeds West Rachel Reeves67,95562.123.163.02.27.73.70.00.00.3LABLAB
93483York Central Rachael Maskell77,31568.727.164.24.72.91.10.00.00.0LABLAB
95481Wentworth and Dearne John Healey74,89058.728.264.03.82.91.10.00.00.0LABLAB
97479Doncaster North Ed Miliband72,37258.524.659.81.710.31.50.01.80.4LABLAB
101475Barnsley East Stephanie Peacock69,20458.923.958.51.911.21.30.03.00.2LABLAB
103473Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton70,11275.628.062.13.73.42.60.00.00.2LABLAB
107469Sheffield Heeley Louise Haigh68,04065.025.759.04.67.43.30.00.00.0LABLAB
112464Leeds East Richard Burgon65,95062.827.560.41.87.62.40.00.00.3LABLAB
118458Rotherham Sarah Champion63,23760.023.455.44.711.61.10.03.80.0LABLAB
124452Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yvette Cooper81,64160.327.058.51.59.01.10.02.90.0LABLAB
136440Hull East Karl Turner65,95955.526.957.33.59.92.50.00.00.0LABLAB
138438Huddersfield Barry Sheerman67,03365.430.059.42.73.34.50.00.00.2LABLAB
139437Sheffield South East Clive Betts68,94563.228.457.53.39.51.20.00.00.1LABLAB
153423Leeds North West Alex Sobel68,15267.916.743.135.02.82.40.00.00.0LABLAB
155421Doncaster Central Rosie Winterton71,71660.031.356.92.34.11.60.03.10.6LABLAB
157419Hull West and Hessle Emma Hardy60,18157.426.852.16.47.02.10.05.50.0LABLAB
161415Hemsworth Jon Trickett71,87063.930.855.02.08.51.10.02.50.0LABLAB
188388Batley and Spen Tracy Brabin80,15367.135.854.52.32.92.40.02.00.0LABLAB
191385Bradford South Judith Cummins67,75260.635.153.51.37.22.00.00.90.0LABLAB
196380Sheffield Hallam Jared O Mara73,45577.620.737.434.74.62.60.00.00.0LABLAB
213363Don Valley Caroline Flint73,98862.238.751.91.92.91.10.03.50.0LABLAB
214362Halifax Holly Lynch71,22467.838.751.82.36.11.10.00.00.0LABLAB
227349Scunthorpe Nic Dakin61,57865.340.451.01.46.01.10.00.00.0LABLAB
230346Rother Valley Kevin Barron75,23065.837.247.12.410.42.90.00.00.0LABLAB
233343Great Grimsby Melanie Onn61,74357.539.148.42.78.11.30.00.00.3LABLAB
237339Dewsbury Paula Sherriff81,33869.542.050.02.22.92.90.00.00.0LABLAB
241335Wakefield Mary Creagh70,34065.841.948.72.13.31.30.02.50.2LABLAB
248328Penistone and Stocksbridge Angela Smith71,29369.840.144.84.29.81.10.00.00.0LABLAB
253323Colne Valley Thelma Walker84,38171.643.146.74.23.22.70.00.00.1LABLAB
259317Keighley John Grogan71,42972.443.045.52.45.92.90.00.00.3LABLAB
267309Pudsey Stuart Andrew72,62274.344.345.73.33.21.20.02.10.1CONLAB
271305Calder Valley Craig Whittaker79,04573.443.144.13.45.42.20.01.80.0CONLAB
293283Morley and Outwood Andrea Jenkyns76,49568.447.745.72.72.91.10.00.00.0CONCON
308268Scarborough and Whitby Robert Goodwill73,59368.645.340.62.76.73.10.01.30.2CONCON
316260Shipley Philip Davies73,13373.048.341.64.22.91.10.01.90.0CONCON
336240York Outer Julian Sturdy75,85675.748.135.710.32.93.00.00.00.0CONCON
349227Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke80,29174.251.336.94.42.92.80.01.80.0CONCON
380196Cleethorpes Martin Vickers73,04765.554.134.42.47.12.10.00.00.0CONCON
398178Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams75,76574.055.733.14.15.91.10.00.00.0CONCON
403173Beverley and Holderness Graham Stuart80,65769.055.332.15.12.92.50.02.10.0CONCON
420156Brigg and Goole Andrew Percy66,06968.257.432.01.96.42.30.00.00.0CONCON
423153Yorkshire East Greg Knight81,06566.655.229.54.06.62.90.01.90.0CONCON
443133Haltemprice and Howden David Davis71,52071.957.930.04.92.92.50.01.80.0CONCON
47997Thirsk and Malton Kevin Hollinrake78,67071.157.025.07.06.13.30.01.30.2CONCON
48492Skipton and Ripon Julian Smith78,10874.459.627.30.12.97.50.02.60.0CONCON
50175Harrogate and Knaresborough Andrew Jones77,26573.452.419.123.53.41.30.00.00.2CONCON
54234Richmond Rishi Sunak80,92070.560.922.45.92.94.20.03.70.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.