Yorks/Humber: Majority Sorted Seats

Yorks/Humber Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.1%	26	21.2%	0	23	-23	3
LAB	38.9%	28	49.9%	23	0	+23	51
LIB	8.1%	0	6.7%	0	0	+0	0
Reform	5.9%	0	15.6%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.3%	0	5.7%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.8%	0	1.0%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Yorks/Humber sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bradford West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Harrogate and Knaresborough, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Elmet and Rothwell (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Don Valley (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Yorks/Humber seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
8	558	Bradford West	Naz Shah	70,694	62.6	6.6	79.9	1.2	8.5	3.3	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
22	544	Leeds Central	Hilary Benn	90,971	54.2	6.4	72.0	2.4	11.5	7.0	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
48	518	Bradford East	Imran Hussain	73,206	60.4	9.7	67.6	4.3	13.5	4.4	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
58	508	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Gill Furniss	69,333	57.1	9.0	64.0	2.8	16.0	7.3	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
59	507	Leeds West	Rachel Reeves	67,727	59.5	10.6	65.1	3.3	14.0	6.2	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
62	504	Sheffield Central	Paul Blomfield	89,849	56.7	4.3	58.3	5.1	12.7	18.6	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
63	503	Leeds North East	Fabian Hamilton	70,580	71.6	12.4	66.0	4.1	11.0	6.1	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
65	501	York Central	Rachael Maskell	74,899	66.1	11.9	65.0	3.9	11.2	7.5	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
81	485	Hull North	Diana Johnson	65,515	52.2	10.4	60.5	5.4	16.9	6.0	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
99	467	Leeds East	Richard Burgon	67,286	58.0	14.3	61.0	2.9	15.4	5.6	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
115	451	Sheffield Heeley	Louise Haigh	66,940	63.8	11.6	56.4	5.7	17.6	8.0	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
117	449	Huddersfield	Barry Sheerman	65,525	63.9	14.7	59.4	3.5	14.3	7.5	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
118	448	Barnsley Central	Dan Jarvis	65,277	56.5	11.9	56.5	3.5	21.6	5.5	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
135	431	Rotherham	Sarah Champion	61,688	57.8	14.1	56.8	3.7	19.9	4.5	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
142	424	Sheffield South East	Clive Betts	67,832	61.9	15.6	57.6	4.2	17.2	4.7	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
143	423	Barnsley East	Stephanie Peacock	69,504	54.8	13.3	54.8	3.5	22.0	5.4	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
146	420	Hull East	Karl Turner	65,745	49.3	13.0	54.0	5.9	20.6	5.5	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
147	419	Bradford South	Judith Cummins	69,046	57.6	16.5	57.3	2.7	16.4	6.3	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
151	415	Hull West and Hessle	Emma Hardy	60,192	52.1	13.5	54.1	6.4	20.3	4.7	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
156	410	Wentworth and Dearne	John Healey	74,536	55.8	16.2	56.2	3.6	18.7	4.5	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
160	406	Leeds North West	Alex Sobel	67,741	72.8	14.4	54.0	11.7	12.4	7.1	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
166	400	Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford	Yvette Cooper	84,527	57.1	16.3	55.2	4.0	18.9	4.7	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
168	398	Doncaster North	Ed Miliband	72,362	56.2	15.8	54.6	3.9	20.4	4.4	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
173	393	Hemsworth	Jon Trickett	73,726	59.6	16.7	55.1	3.7	18.6	5.2	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
179	387	Doncaster Central	Rosie Winterton	71,389	58.2	17.7	55.0	3.4	18.0	5.1	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
181	385	Halifax	Holly Lynch	71,887	64.6	19.4	56.6	3.3	14.4	5.6	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
227	339	Dewsbury	Mark Eastwood	81,253	69.4	23.7	54.5	3.7	13.2	4.5	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
235	331	Pudsey	Stuart Andrew	73,212	74.1	24.1	53.0	4.5	12.6	5.4	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
237	329	Don Valley	Nick Fletcher	75,356	60.3	21.9	50.7	4.1	17.7	4.8	0.0	0.7	CON	LAB
243	323	Keighley	Robbie Moore	72,778	72.3	24.2	52.4	4.1	13.8	4.9	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
246	320	Colne Valley	Jason McCartney	84,174	72.3	23.4	51.3	5.0	14.3	5.5	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
258	308	Calder Valley	Craig Whittaker	79,287	72.9	25.2	52.0	4.9	13.1	4.4	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
265	301	Scunthorpe	Holly Mumby-Croft	61,955	60.9	25.5	51.4	3.2	14.8	4.5	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
267	299	Morley and Outwood	Andrea Jenkyns	78,803	65.9	23.2	49.1	3.8	16.6	6.2	0.0	1.0	CON	LAB
271	295	Sheffield Hallam	Olivia Blake	72,763	78.2	12.6	37.8	29.9	12.8	6.5	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
280	286	Great Grimsby	Lia Nici	61,409	53.9	24.3	48.6	4.5	17.2	4.5	0.0	0.9	CON	LAB
286	280	Rother Valley	Alexander Stafford	74,804	65.1	23.2	46.9	5.4	18.9	4.9	0.0	0.7	CON	LAB
290	276	Wakefield	Imran Ahmad-Khan	70,192	64.1	26.2	49.4	2.3	13.6	3.1	3.8	1.6	CON	LAB
293	273	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Miriam Cates	70,925	69.8	22.1	44.7	9.4	18.5	4.6	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
302	264	Shipley	Philip Davies	74,029	72.9	26.5	48.3	4.6	13.6	6.5	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
318	248	Scarborough and Whitby	Robert Goodwill	74,404	66.8	28.3	46.9	4.9	15.2	4.1	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
320	246	Batley and Spen	Tracy Brabin	79,558	66.5	26.5	44.7	3.2	11.4	2.1	11.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
325	241	York Outer	Julian Sturdy	74,673	74.1	23.3	40.2	16.4	14.4	5.2	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
356	210	Elmet and Rothwell	Alec Shelbrooke	80,957	71.9	30.4	42.2	5.8	15.0	6.1	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
373	193	Selby and Ainsty	Nigel Adams	78,398	72.0	33.0	41.7	4.2	13.2	5.1	2.1	0.7	CON	LAB
381	185	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart	79,696	67.2	30.5	37.6	10.1	16.4	5.1	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
405	161	Yorkshire East	Greg Knight	80,923	65.2	31.3	36.1	8.0	18.7	5.3	0.0	0.7	CON	LAB
413	153	Haltemprice and Howden	David Davis	71,083	70.0	32.4	36.2	8.9	16.0	5.9	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
437	129	Cleethorpes	Martin Vickers	73,689	62.9	36.3	38.0	5.5	15.2	4.5	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
442	124	Skipton and Ripon	Julian Smith	78,673	74.6	30.5	31.7	12.2	17.7	7.3	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
444	122	Brigg and Goole	Andrew Percy	65,939	65.8	36.3	37.4	5.4	15.9	4.7	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
461	105	Thirsk and Malton	Kevin Hollinrake	80,991	69.9	33.2	32.2	10.9	17.4	6.0	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
488	78	Richmond	Rishi Sunak	82,569	69.9	35.3	31.8	10.8	16.0	5.7	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
508	58	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Andrew Jones	77,941	73.1	30.0	24.2	26.7	14.1	4.7	0.0	0.4	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.