Battlemap

This table converts percentage support for the parties into seats at Westminster. Each box contains the number of seats for respectively CON, LAB and LIB. There are 650 seats in total, and a party needs 326 seats to have an absolute majority. The method assumes a Uniform National Swing from the current prediction baseline.

At the 2019 election, the parties' vote shares were CON 44.7%, LAB 33.0% and LIB 11.8%. The seats won were CON 365, LAB 203, LIB 11. Additionally there were 48 seats won by Scots Nationalists, 4 seats by Welsh nationalists, 18 seats in Northern Ireland, and one seat won by the Greens.

The Conservatives had a majority of 80 seats (80 = 2×650 − 365).

To lose their majority, the Conservatives would have to suffer a swing towards Labour of about four per cent (CON 41%, LAB 37%). For Labour to get a majority, they need a swing away from the Conservatives of about twelve per cent (CON 33%, LAB 45%).

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How to use this battlemap

  1. Estimate the current level of support for the two main parties. This could come from a single opinion poll, an average of opinion polls, an on-the-night exit poll, or private sources or intuition.
  2. Take the CON level of support and find the appropriate column.
  3. Move down the rows until you get to the LAB level of support.
  4. Look across to the appropriate column and see the three numbers (blue, red, orange). These are the predicted number of seats for CON, LAB and LIB respectively.
  5. Example: look up the case where CON 35%, LAB 35% and we get the answer (CON 279, LAB 268, LIB 30).
  6. If a party has an absolute majority in Parliament it is shown in bold.

Conservative
20%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%
194575109134160182204217229244256272284293302314320326332342
Labour30% 302304304301299295289285280276267263254247242235228226221217210
2492211911611381161008276686254484440393430292926
215485114137163183199214229238253264279288295309317321331335
31% 310309309307304301298291284279276267263254247243235229226221217
239207176150130107908175655953474240383230292626
305888116138163183196211227239245261272282293303312318326333
32% 321318318315315309303298291283279277268263255248244236230226221
220195165141119100867872645652464139363029292624
306292122143162182195209222237246254267276289299304312322328
33% 332328323320317313309301297290283279277268262254248244236230226
20918115613011297817668625449444138343029292624
376397123147165179188207218230245253260271283293300307317326
34% 338337330323319317313310302297290282279276268262254248244236230
19617114412610690807465595447434037323029262522
417095123150169178189202217226239252259266279286294303310320
Labour35% 349342340334325320317313308301296290282278275268262254248245237
1811591361149783777064565245413935302929262321
427597121144168178188201214226236246256264273281289298307312
36% 361354350342335324320317313306301295288282278274268263255249245
1681421231089380746760544743413834302825242221
467194120143160176188199207223233242250262270275284291302309
37% 374367357351342333325321318314305301295289284279274268263255249
1521331201018880726458544741393730282825232120
477193118139156171184200207219229236248259266272278287294303
38% 376375372360354342333326321318313307303296289284280275269264256
148125106948176706455514440383329282625222119
457089110133145166182198208215223234242253264270274281289302
39% 402389384375362355342332325322319313307303295287284281276269261
12511399887974666053464240363229272423212014
366188104125142157179194206214221229241248257268271276286295
Labour40% 420409392384371361355340331325322317313307302294286284281273268
11610292857871625551454038352927272423201814
30507499116137150169188202212218227236244254262271274285292
41% 437428411397386371363352339331324321318313306300293286283278271
1059487777266615349434037322827242320191414
25415987105127148160182194210217227232240249256266272282290
42% 450444432410397384369362349341328324321317311305299291286281277
97878176726357524541383529282624221918149
21345269100117139157172188201217226230235244252258273280288
43% 462453444430407396383368361349338327324321317311304299289284279
89857674676152494339373227262523201914129
1726435981112127148169177193210222227234243249255266277287
44% 473466455443430406396381366361348335328324320313309304297290280
8280747163565145413835312726232119171299
122035507095121139158173185204217226232238246255260272281
Labour45% 482476467457447426403393380368359345335327323321314309304296287
7977716758545143393633282625221918121299
71724436079105131149166179197210222231237244251259267276
46% 493490485469459445423403390375367354343334326323317313308301293
746765625651474138363127252120181612998
3121831526891122138156176186204216227237246249257260270
47% 506499494487469457442414402388375367350340331323319316310308299
656362575450424038342825232119171212997
34152640608198130147166182196215222234243249254260263
48% 509510500493484469453440414402386372361342337327322319313309306
62605956514642383530262321201716129977
0382132517087112138155175194207220233239247253256262
49% 515515512504495481466455436411398380363352339332326321315314311
60575550484440353129242221181712129774
003132539587795127149162187200215229237245248254260
Labour50% 523523521517506500483467453426406394371360346336331325322318315
5252514645383632302422211917161297751
20%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%
Conservative

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