Battlemap

This table converts percentage support for the parties into seats at Westminster. Each box contains the number of seats for respectively CON, LAB and LIB. There are 650 seats in total under the new boundaries, and a party needs 326 seats to have an absolute majority. The method assumes a Uniform National Swing.

At the 2005 election, the parties vote share was CON 33.2%, LAB 36.2% and LIB 22.6%. The implied seats won were CON 209, LAB 346, LIB 66. Additionally there were 8 seats won by Scots (6) and Welsh (2) nationalists, 18 seats in Northern Ireland, and three seats won Independents (Wyre Forest, Bethnal Green and Bow, and Blaenau Gwent).

Labour had an implied majority of 2*346-650=42.

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How to use this battlemap

Estimate the current level of support for the two main parties. This could come from a single opinion poll, an average of opinion polls, an on-the-night exit poll, or private sources or intuition.
Take the CON level of support and find the appropriate column.
Move down the rows until you get to the LAB level of support.
Look across to the appropriate column and see the three numbers (blue, red, yellow). These are the predicted number of seats for CON, LAB and LIB respectively.
Example: look up 2005 result as CON 33%, LAB 36%, and we get seats of 208, 346, 67 respectively. Which is (approximately) what (was implied to have) happened.
If a party has an absolute majority in Parliament it is shown in bold.

Sophisticated users can learn how to power-use the Battlemap to adjust for minor parties.

		Conservative
		25%	26%	27%	28%	29%	30%	31%	32%	33%	34%	35%	36%	37%	38%	39%	40%	41%	42%	43%	44%	45%
		84	102	126	155	187	206	227	251	261	279	289	305	318	328	337	348	356	374	384	395	406
Labour	25%	148	156	173	183	188	195	198	204	206	202	205	204	197	194	193	192	188	177	172	168	164
		390	364	323	283	243	217	193	163	151	137	124	109	104	98	90	80	76	71	66	59	52
		88	108	136	162	191	206	229	248	259	271	290	297	311	325	338	344	352	362	377	387	405
	26%	177	192	200	209	211	221	222	222	225	227	219	218	211	207	204	201	198	195	184	179	171
		357	322	285	247	216	191	167	148	134	120	109	103	97	88	78	75	70	65	61	56	45
		99	120	144	170	188	212	229	244	259	269	281	295	303	319	333	340	348	358	367	387	401
	27%	206	216	225	238	240	239	247	246	240	239	236	229	228	219	213	211	208	204	198	188	179
		317	285	249	210	190	167	142	128	119	110	101	94	88	82	74	69	64	60	57	46	41
		101	127	154	173	187	208	229	238	251	269	275	285	302	314	326	337	344	353	368	379	395
	28%	233	246	252	260	267	267	262	263	257	251	250	244	235	235	226	219	213	210	205	199	192
		287	245	212	185	164	143	127	117	110	98	93	89	82	71	68	64	63	58	48	43	34
		112	134	159	175	190	209	219	235	245	260	272	279	293	311	316	330	339	352	364	377	389
	29%	266	273	281	280	286	283	282	276	275	266	258	258	251	241	237	228	223	216	211	205	200
		240	211	178	163	142	126	117	107	98	92	88	81	75	68	67	62	58	52	45	38	32
		113	133	160	172	190	205	217	225	245	250	263	277	290	301	315	320	333	349	361	374	384
Labour	30%	301	301	300	300	301	299	295	293	283	284	274	265	260	253	244	240	231	225	220	215	208
		204	184	158	146	127	114	106	100	90	84	81	76	69	66	61	60	55	46	39	31	28
		117	137	153	173	190	200	212	223	232	247	253	269	286	293	304	317	328	338	359	370	378
	31%	319	323	324	319	316	312	308	306	302	290	286	276	268	263	257	247	243	240	229	222	219
		182	158	141	126	112	106	98	89	84	81	79	73	65	64	59	55	48	41	32	28	23
		119	140	149	167	187	198	208	218	229	235	252	263	277	289	296	307	325	336	349	361	375
	32%	339	339	339	334	328	325	320	315	307	304	293	289	279	272	267	262	252	247	245	235	227
		160	139	130	117	103	95	90	85	82	79	73	66	63	59	56	50	42	36	26	24	18
		129	141	153	165	179	195	202	212	223	232	241	260	267	281	292	303	316	335	342	353	365
	33%	347	347	348	348	343	333	329	324	318	311	308	295	293	282	280	273	269	258	253	248	240
		143	131	118	106	97	91	88	83	78	76	70	64	60	57	48	44	35	27	25	20	16
		134	141	153	167	174	185	200	207	215	228	242	249	263	271	282	299	311	325	338	349	358
	34%	355	355	356	353	354	346	336	332	327	319	313	309	303	298	295	284	279	271	262	256	250
		130	123	110	99	91	88	83	80	77	72	64	61	53	51	43	37	30	24	20	16	13
		137	144	154	163	173	178	189	205	211	222	234	245	253	265	279	290	305	316	327	339	350
Labour	35%	362	363	364	363	358	356	349	339	335	330	327	321	320	312	304	297	292	284	278	270	263
		121	113	102	94	89	86	82	76	74	68	59	53	47	44	38	34	24	21	16	12	8
		138	146	156	164	168	178	182	194	208	220	230	238	248	258	269	287	298	310	319	327	339
	36%	369	369	368	368	367	361	360	354	346	342	340	333	329	323	317	310	301	298	292	287	275
		114	106	97	89	86	82	79	73	67	59	50	49	44	41	36	25	23	14	11	8	8
		138	150	156	164	166	172	183	186	203	217	225	234	245	255	267	281	292	306	313	322	328
	37%	373	372	372	371	371	371	367	365	360	350	346	340	334	332	326	321	315	304	299	292	287
		110	99	93	86	84	78	71	70	58	53	49	46	42	35	29	20	15	12	10	8	7
		141	151	159	163	168	171	177	187	199	210	222	230	241	251	265	273	287	296	310	315	323
	38%	378	377	376	377	378	377	377	372	368	361	352	350	344	340	337	331	323	316	305	302	295
		103	94	87	82	76	74	68	63	54	50	47	41	37	32	21	19	13	11	8	6	5
		144	151	159	162	167	173	175	188	195	207	214	227	237	250	263	271	280	290	299	311	317
	39%	382	382	383	381	382	381	381	377	374	368	364	357	354	348	341	337	331	325	318	307	302
		96	89	80	79	73	68	66	56	52	46	43	37	31	25	19	15	12	8	6	5	4
		145	153	158	163	167	172	177	186	195	201	212	220	233	248	256	269	275	284	292	300	312
Labour	40%	389	387	387	386	385	384	383	383	379	378	372	368	358	354	348	343	339	333	325	318	307
		88	82	77	73	70	66	61	52	47	42	37	33	31	21	19	11	9	6	6	5	4
		141	153	156	162	169	171	181	186	192	200	206	218	228	246	254	263	272	278	285	294	301
	41%	397	392	391	389	386	387	387	386	387	382	379	373	369	360	356	350	343	339	333	325	318
		84	77	75	71	67	63	53	49	42	39	36	30	25	17	13	10	8	6	5	4	4
		140	148	157	163	167	174	182	186	191	198	206	211	228	235	252	258	267	274	279	286	295
	42%	404	399	393	390	391	389	391	392	389	387	383	382	375	371	360	356	350	343	339	333	325
		78	75	72	69	63	58	48	43	41	36	32	28	19	17	11	9	6	6	5	4	3
		135	143	152	163	167	177	182	186	190	195	204	213	223	235	242	255	261	267	276	281	286
	43%	411	405	401	394	393	395	394	393	393	393	389	385	382	375	371	360	356	351	343	339	336
		76	74	69	64	61	49	45	42	38	33	28	23	17	13	10	8	6	5	4	3	1
		130	138	150	159	166	177	184	186	191	196	200	213	220	230	239	246	257	261	267	278	282
	44%	420	415	406	403	402	399	397	398	397	396	394	390	386	383	376	373	362	358	354	345	342
		73	70	66	60	54	46	41	38	34	30	28	19	17	11	9	5	5	5	3	1	0
		119	133	143	156	169	178	182	188	191	197	203	211	220	228	233	242	246	258	264	269	276
Labour	45%	432	424	421	410	406	401	401	398	398	397	396	394	390	387	384	377	373	363	359	355	348
		72	65	58	56	47	43	39	36	33	28	23	17	13	9	7	5	5	3	1	0	0
		25%	26%	27%	28%	29%	30%	31%	32%	33%	34%	35%	36%	37%	38%	39%	40%	41%	42%	43%	44%	45%
		Conservative

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