Battlemap

This table converts percentage support for the parties into seats at Westminster. Each box contains the number of seats for respectively CON, LAB and LIB. There are 650 seats in total, and a party needs 326 seats to have an absolute majority. The method assumes a Uniform National Swing.

At the 2017 election, the parties' vote shares were CON 43.5%, LAB 41.0% and LIB 7.6%. The seats won were CON 318, LAB 262, LIB 12. Additionally there were 35 seats won by Scots Nationalists, 4 seats by Welsh nationalists, 18 seats in Northern Ireland, and one seat won by the Greens.

The Conservatives were 8 seats short of a majority (8 = 326 − 318).

To get a majority, the Conservatives need a swing away from Labour of about just one per cent. For Labour to get a majority, they need a swing away from the Conservatives of about six per cent.

Return to Prediction page or the Election home page.


How to use this battlemap

  1. Estimate the current level of support for the two main parties. This could come from a single opinion poll, an average of opinion polls, an on-the-night exit poll, or private sources or intuition.
  2. Take the CON level of support and find the appropriate column.
  3. Move down the rows until you get to the LAB level of support.
  4. Look across to the appropriate column and see the three numbers (blue, red, yellow). These are the predicted number of seats for CON, LAB and LIB respectively.
  5. Example: look up the 2017 result as CON 43.5%, LAB 41%, and we get seats half-way between the set at CON=43% (314, 263, 16) and the set at CON=44% (326, 257, 10). The average of these two sets is CON 319, LAB 260, LIB 13, which is (approximately) what happened.
  6. If a party has an absolute majority in Parliament it is shown in bold.

Conservative
30%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%46%47%48%49%50%
264273289297307313319324331337342350357361370379385388393397405
Labour30% 270263253247240235233232228224220215209207201194189187185181177
434236343332312727262522211918181818161613
258268280291302308318321328334339345352360364372380386391394401
31% 276270262253248243238235232228224220215209207201194189187185181
434036343029272726252422201818181818161513
250264274283296302313318325331335342347354362366373382389393397
32% 285279272265255249243238235231228224220215209207201194189187185
423532302929272726252421201818181817161413
249258267275286297307313322327334338344349356364367376385392395
33% 291286280273265255249243238235231228224220215209207201194189188
373431302928272726252221191818181816151312
247254262269278288300308318324330336340345351358366370378387393
34% 294291286280273265256248243238235231228224220215209207202195190
363330292927272725252220191818181716141212
242252257263271281291301312322328332337341347353361368374380390
Labour35% 300294291286280272265256249243238235231228224221216210208202195
35323029292727262522212019181817151512128
241248255258265273284293305316323330334338343349356363372375378
36% 302300294291286280272264256249243238235232229225221216210208208
3430292929272726252221191817171715141296
238246249255261267276285297310317325331334340345352359367371377
37% 306303301295292287281273265257250245240237233230225221217215212
343029292827272625212118171717161513863
234243246249259262271278292304311319326331336343348357360366374
38% 313307305302296293288282274265259252246241238234232228227223219
32302929272726252220191817171715138642
231238244247254259267273284295306313320326334339346351355360362
39% 317313307305301296293288283274265258252246242239236235234232231
3129292827272524212018181717151496422
228234238245250254263269280286297306314321330339344349353356359
Labour40% 322318314309307303298294289284275267260253248243241239238237234
302929272626252320201817161614975221
227230234239248250258265275283288298307314326335339347350354356
41% 327326322318312310307302297293288279270263257253251246244242240
292828272626242220171716161610752211
224228231236242249255261270278283289298309321332335342348352354
42% 338335333330326320319315310305300295286275266259257253248246244
28282725252422201917171616128632111
220225229232238243254258265273278284289306320325334338343350352
43% 343340337335332328322320316311306301297282270268260258254249247
2827262524232119191717161397321111
213221227230235240249256263268274278289299315323326336339345353
44% 352346342339337333329323321317312308299293280274272264262258253
2726242423222019171716141184311110
208215223227233237246250261264268276288296306318324328337341348
Labour45% 358353346342339337333329323321319313305298292283277275268265258
262524242321191917171412854111100
201210216223230235242248255263267276282296302309318326330339
46% 368361356349345342339335331325321316312300297292284278275269
2625242423211917171413964211100
196204211217227233239244251257267273281289300304309320327
47% 377371364359352348345342337332323321315308301298293287280
252424232220191715141164211100
189198204212221230236241249257268272277286297302304313
48% 386379373366361354350346342335327323320313305301302294
2524242321191915141265321100
186191199206217223234239248257262270276284292295302
49% 394390383377370365356352345339334328323318313310304
24242322201915141376321000
178187192201211221231238246253261266272277286290
Labour50% 406398394387381373363354350347340336330326319316
242423211915141496321000
30%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%46%47%48%49%50%
Conservative

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