Battlemap

This table converts percentage support for the parties into seats at Westminster. Each box contains the number of seats for respectively CON, LAB and LIB. There are 650 seats in total under the new boundaries, and a party needs 326 seats to have an absolute majority. The method assumes a Uniform National Swing.

At the 2005 election, the parties vote share was CON 33.2%, LAB 36.2% and LIB 22.6%. The implied seats won were CON 209, LAB 346, LIB 66. Additionally there were 8 seats won by Scots (6) and Welsh (2) nationalists, 18 seats in Northern Ireland, and three seats won Independents (Wyre Forest, Bethnal Green and Bow, and Blaenau Gwent).

Labour had an implied majority of 2*346-650=42.

Return to Election home page.


How to use this battlemap

  1. Estimate the current level of support for the two main parties. This could come from a single opinion poll, an average of opinion polls, an on-the-night exit poll, or private sources or intuition.
  2. Take the CON level of support and find the appropriate column.
  3. Move down the rows until you get to the LAB level of support.
  4. Look across to the appropriate column and see the three numbers (blue, red, yellow). These are the predicted number of seats for CON, LAB and LIB respectively.
  5. Example: look up 2005 result as CON 33%, LAB 36%, and we get seats of 208, 346, 67 respectively. Which is (approximately) what (was implied to have) happened.
  6. If a party has an absolute majority in Parliament it is shown in bold.
Sophisticated users can learn how to power-use the Battlemap to adjust for minor parties.
Conservative
25%26%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%
84102126155187206227251261279289305318328337348356374384395406
Labour25% 148156173183188195198204206202205204197194193192188177172168164
3903643232832432171931631511371241091049890807671665952
88108136162191206229248259271290297311325338344352362377387405
26% 177192200209211221222222225227219218211207204201198195184179171
357322285247216191167148134120109103978878757065615645
99120144170188212229244259269281295303319333340348358367387401
27% 206216225238240239247246240239236229228219213211208204198188179
31728524921019016714212811911010194888274696460574641
101127154173187208229238251269275285302314326337344353368379395
28% 233246252260267267262263257251250244235235226219213210205199192
287245212185164143127117110989389827168646358484334
112134159175190209219235245260272279293311316330339352364377389
29% 266273281280286283282276275266258258251241237228223216211205200
24021117816314212611710798928881756867625852453832
113133160172190205217225245250263277290301315320333349361374384
Labour30% 301301300300301299295293283284274265260253244240231225220215208
20418415814612711410610090848176696661605546393128
117137153173190200212223232247253269286293304317328338359370378
31% 319323324319316312308306302290286276268263257247243240229222219
182158141126112106988984817973656459554841322823
119140149167187198208218229235252263277289296307325336349361375
32% 339339339334328325320315307304293289279272267262252247245235227
16013913011710395908582797366635956504236262418
129141153165179195202212223232241260267281292303316335342353365
33% 347347348348343333329324318311308295293282280273269258253248240
1431311181069791888378767064605748443527252016
134141153167174185200207215228242249263271282299311325338349358
34% 355355356353354346336332327319313309303298295284279271262256250
130123110999188838077726461535143373024201613
137144154163173178189205211222234245253265279290305316327339350
Labour35% 362363364363358356349339335330327321320312304297292284278270263
12111310294898682767468595347443834242116128
138146156164168178182194208220230238248258269287298310319327339
36% 369369368368367361360354346342340333329323317310301298292287275
114106978986827973675950494441362523141188
138150156164166172183186203217225234245255267281292306313322328
37% 373372372371371371367365360350346340334332326321315304299292287
11099938684787170585349464235292015121087
141151159163168171177187199210222230241251265273287296310315323
38% 378377376377378377377372368361352350344340337331323316305302295
1039487827674686354504741373221191311865
144151159162167173175188195207214227237250263271280290299311317
39% 382382383381382381381377374368364357354348341337331325318307302
96898079736866565246433731251915128654
145153158163167172177186195201212220233248256269275284292300312
Labour40% 389387387386385384383383379378372368358354348343339333325318307
8882777370666152474237333121191196654
141153156162169171181186192200206218228246254263272278285294301
41% 397392391389386387387386387382379373369360356350343339333325318
8477757167635349423936302517131086544
140148157163167174182186191198206211228235252258267274279286295
42% 404399393390391389391392389387383382375371360356350343339333325
787572696358484341363228191711966543
135143152163167177182186190195204213223235242255261267276281286
43% 411405401394393395394393393393389385382375371360356351343339336
767469646149454238332823171310865431
130138150159166177184186191196200213220230239246257261267278282
44% 420415406403402399397398397396394390386383376373362358354345342
73706660544641383430281917119555310
119133143156169178182188191197203211220228233242246258264269276
Labour45% 432424421410406401401398398397396394390387384377373363359355348
7265585647433936332823171397553100
25%26%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%
Conservative

Return to Election home page.