Battlemap

This table converts percentage support for the parties into seats at Westminster. Each box contains the number of seats for respectively CON, LAB and LIB. There are 650 seats in total, and a party needs 326 seats to have an absolute majority. The method assumes a Uniform National Swing.

At the 2010 election, the parties vote share was CON 37.0%, LAB 29.7% and LIB 23.6%. The seats won were CON 307, LAB 258, LIB 57. Additionally there were 9 seats won by Scots (6) and Welsh (3) nationalists, 18 seats in Northern Ireland, and one seat won by the Greens (Brighton Pavillion).

The Conservatives were 19 seats (19 = 326 - 307) short of a majority. The Conservative-LibDem coalition had a majority of 78 seats (78 = 2 * (307 + 57) - 650).

Return to Election home page.

How to use this battlemap

  1. Estimate the current level of support for the two main parties. This could come from a single opinion poll, an average of opinion polls, an on-the-night exit poll, or private sources or intuition.
  2. Take the CON level of support and find the appropriate column.
  3. Move down the rows until you get to the LAB level of support.
  4. Look across to the appropriate column and see the three numbers (blue, red, yellow). These are the predicted number of seats for CON, LAB and LIB respectively.
  5. Example: look up 2010 result as CON 37%, LAB 30%, and we get seats of 305, 262, 55 respectively. Which is (approximately) what happened.
  6. If a party has an absolute majority in Parliament it is shown in bold.
Sophisticated users can learn how to power-use the Battlemap to adjust for minor parties.
Conservative
25%26%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%
94123154177205223244265279289298315326335349362369377390401413
Labour25% 180196203209210213218216220223222217212207197192189182178174172
34830226423520618515914012311010290848076686463544738
105141164191210227244261282286297307319330340353361375386396410
26% 211217222228230238239237232233232229222219215204198192189188182
3052632352021811561381231081039386817367656355473831
122150171193208226240261274287297304313324335343357371381388402
27% 225237242255257254252248244238238240237229222217210205203199191
274234208173156141129112104978778726965625546383529
137154178193206223240260269281297303309318328337348365374387396
28% 254265269272269266261259258255247245243239234232228218213206205
23020217415614613212010295867874706560534639352921
137161174194206221237253265275290298308315322330342355369379390
29% 286285284280280280279273267264258252249251250245241232226219214
1981751631471351201059590837472655650473935272418
138161177190209219239248261273284294307313320327337349362374384
Labour30% 300297297297292290285285277272270266260257256254252244237229220
183163147134120112978884776862555246413329231918
143156177187203223236246253271279289302313318329333342355366375
31% 313316312308302298294290290285281276269262261259258254245237229
165149132126116100918579666257514743343126221918
147161171188201222234243254263275286297307319328334340349359368
32% 327325322320313309305304301298288283277272266263261259254248240
14813612911410891837568625953484337312723191514
148163171183202218228238253260269283291302315325333339344350361
33% 331334330329326323319312307302301292289280276268264265263258249
1431251211109481757263615348434132302619161513
150162174184201213223235249257269274289297311320332340343346354
34% 342338341341340333327320313311305303294291281279271267265264260
13012210797817672676155494640353124201615139
155159173186200207216234242254265276284297302316324336340345351
Labour35% 349354350349345342334329325318313306299297294285281273270268267
1181099987777372595651454140292722181413105
154166170191197205213230238249260269283293302308322327337344349
36% 360359361354352352349338334328319317308303299297288284276272269
11099937975676255524644373227221813121075
155165177186197200214221235247256266279288298306312322329342347
37% 365363361366359359355350340334331323318312307303301291286277273
1049686726865555350443836272419151111954
159166182188192202209217231242253264274284294304309313326333343
38% 368370368368369363361356351343337333327322316310305302292287278
978874686359545143403528241915111110754
158170182188193201208214225240245262270279288298304311318329334
39% 376376375373371369365364360349346339334329323316310305302292287
91796864615451464036342421171411119544
158175181187194200205213223232248259268276285291299306314319330
Labour40% 383380378375373375372370364361352344339334329324318312306302292
8470666358504841383225221815111087542
159174181188196200206212218228243253263272280285292302309317322
41% 389383381379378377375374375367359351345340336331325318312306301
77686358514844393330232117139985411
163170178185195199207213218227236252260269275281287295303311316
42% 393391388386382380379378377374367356352347341336331325320313308
6964595448463934312522171399875100
161170177186191201207213219225231243258264269276284292300306312
43% 399396393390388385382380378378376368355352347341336331324318313
6559554946393632292319151299851000
160164174182187198206212221227231237253261265271280288296301310
44% 405405398399396390386383383380379376364356353348344336329324315
605653444237333022191613998710000
156164170179186194204210220223231237244253262270277283292300303
Labour45% 412410411403401396392389385384380378373364356354348342333325322
575144433835292621191511998100000
25%26%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%
Conservative
Return to Election home page.