Battlemap

This table converts percentage support for the parties into seats at Westminster. Each box contains the number of seats for respectively CON, LAB and LIB. There are 650 seats in total, and a party needs 326 seats to have an absolute majority. The method assumes a Uniform National Swing.

At the 2010 election, the parties vote share was CON 37.0%, LAB 29.7% and LIB 23.6%. The seats won were CON 307, LAB 258, LIB 57. Additionally there were 9 seats won by Scots (6) and Welsh (3) nationalists, 18 seats in Northern Ireland, and one seat won by the Greens (Brighton Pavillion).

The Conservatives were 19 seats (19 = 326 - 307) short of a majority. The Conservative-LibDem coalition had a majority of 78 seats (78 = 2 * (307 + 57) - 650).

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How to use this battlemap

Estimate the current level of support for the two main parties. This could come from a single opinion poll, an average of opinion polls, an on-the-night exit poll, or private sources or intuition.
Take the CON level of support and find the appropriate column.
Move down the rows until you get to the LAB level of support.
Look across to the appropriate column and see the three numbers (blue, red, yellow). These are the predicted number of seats for CON, LAB and LIB respectively.
Example: look up 2010 result as CON 37%, LAB 30%, and we get seats of 305, 262, 55 respectively. Which is (approximately) what happened.
If a party has an absolute majority in Parliament it is shown in bold.

Sophisticated users can learn how to power-use the Battlemap to adjust for minor parties.

		Conservative
		30%	31%	32%	33%	34%	35%	36%	37%	38%	39%	40%	41%	42%	43%	44%	45%	46%	47%	48%	49%	50%
		183	209	239	265	288	307	332	341	355	367	377	390	398	406	412	423	437	449	459	476	486
Labour	20%	113	123	129	131	135	140	139	142	138	136	134	135	138	134	132	127	123	118	115	109	105
		325	289	252	224	197	173	149	137	127	117	109	96	85	81	79	73	64	58	51	40	35
		189	223	247	273	291	310	331	341	356	367	378	387	397	402	411	419	433	445	461	471	487
	21%	134	142	149	153	155	156	153	150	148	149	150	148	143	143	139	138	131	129	122	120	112
		297	255	224	195	175	155	137	130	117	105	93	87	82	77	73	66	60	51	42	34	26
		206	227	250	275	292	311	324	339	354	363	374	386	392	400	407	419	430	443	454	467	480
	22%	156	163	167	170	173	170	165	165	164	163	159	155	154	149	147	142	142	140	136	129	122
		258	230	203	176	156	140	132	117	103	95	88	81	76	73	69	61	51	41	35	29	23
		218	237	256	274	295	307	321	339	350	361	370	381	389	394	410	416	429	441	451	459	472
	23%	178	182	187	186	185	187	187	182	177	173	170	166	161	158	154	156	151	145	143	141	133
		224	201	177	161	141	127	113	100	94	87	81	75	72	70	59	51	43	38	31	25	20
		221	241	260	277	292	302	318	329	344	355	366	375	383	393	403	419	426	436	447	456	463
	24%	200	194	198	204	206	204	201	199	192	187	181	175	173	169	167	158	158	155	152	149	143
		200	186	163	141	124	116	103	94	86	80	75	72	66	60	53	46	39	32	26	20	19
		223	243	263	279	289	298	315	325	335	349	360	369	377	390	401	413	425	435	441	451	457
Labour	25%	214	218	217	220	223	222	217	213	207	197	194	189	182	178	174	172	166	163	160	155	153
		184	160	141	123	110	102	90	84	80	76	68	64	63	54	47	38	32	25	22	19	15
		226	244	261	282	286	297	307	318	329	340	353	361	374	386	396	410	418	431	438	446	452
	26%	238	239	238	232	233	232	229	223	220	215	204	198	193	189	188	182	177	169	166	164	159
		157	138	122	108	103	93	86	81	73	67	65	63	55	47	38	31	28	23	19	15	14
		226	240	261	274	287	297	304	313	323	334	343	357	371	381	388	402	414	423	432	436	445
	27%	254	252	248	244	238	238	240	237	230	223	217	210	205	203	199	191	186	181	175	173	168
		141	129	112	104	97	87	78	72	69	65	62	55	46	38	35	29	23	19	16	14	12
		222	239	260	268	281	297	303	309	318	328	337	347	365	374	387	395	406	415	424	434	442
	28%	266	261	259	259	255	247	245	243	239	234	234	228	218	213	206	206	198	191	185	177	173
		133	121	102	95	86	78	74	70	65	60	51	47	39	35	29	21	19	17	14	12	9
		221	237	253	265	275	290	298	308	315	322	330	342	355	368	379	388	394	405	418	427	436
	29%	280	279	273	267	264	258	252	249	251	250	245	241	232	226	219	215	210	203	193	186	182
		120	105	95	90	83	74	72	65	56	50	47	39	35	28	24	19	18	15	12	10	6
		219	239	248	261	272	284	294	305	313	320	327	337	349	362	373	384	390	398	407	416	427
Labour	30%	290	285	285	277	273	270	266	262	257	256	254	252	244	237	230	220	216	212	207	200	191
		112	97	88	84	77	68	62	55	52	46	41	33	29	23	19	18	16	13	9	7	5
		223	236	246	253	271	278	289	302	311	318	329	333	342	355	366	374	387	396	401	410	419
	31%	298	294	290	291	285	282	276	269	264	261	259	258	254	245	237	230	222	218	214	207	200
		100	91	85	78	66	62	57	51	47	43	34	31	26	22	19	18	13	9	8	6	4
		222	234	243	254	263	275	286	295	307	317	328	334	340	349	359	368	379	392	398	403	412
	32%	309	306	304	301	298	288	283	279	272	268	263	261	259	254	248	240	232	222	219	215	208
		91	82	75	68	62	59	53	48	43	37	31	27	23	19	15	14	11	9	6	5	3
		218	228	238	253	260	269	283	290	300	315	323	333	339	344	350	361	373	382	393	400	404
	33%	323	319	312	307	302	301	292	290	282	276	270	264	265	263	258	249	242	235	225	220	216
		81	75	72	63	61	53	48	43	41	32	30	26	19	16	15	13	8	6	5	3	3
		213	223	235	249	257	269	274	288	296	309	320	330	340	343	346	354	365	374	382	394	400
	34%	333	327	320	313	311	304	303	295	292	283	279	273	267	265	264	260	252	245	237	226	220
		76	72	67	61	55	50	46	40	35	31	24	20	16	15	13	9	6	4	4	3	3
		207	216	233	242	254	263	275	283	296	301	314	324	334	340	345	351	357	366	375	383	394
Labour	35%	342	334	330	325	318	315	307	300	298	295	287	281	275	270	268	267	262	253	245	237	226
		73	72	59	56	51	45	41	40	29	27	22	18	14	13	10	5	4	4	3	3	2
		204	213	228	238	249	260	269	283	292	301	307	320	327	335	344	349	352	357	367	374	384
	36%	353	349	340	334	328	319	317	308	304	300	298	290	284	278	272	269	267	262	253	246	239
		67	62	55	52	46	44	37	32	27	22	18	13	12	10	7	5	4	4	3	2	0
		200	214	221	235	247	256	264	279	288	297	305	311	320	329	340	347	350	353	358	367	376
	37%	359	355	350	340	334	331	325	318	312	308	304	302	293	286	279	273	270	268	263	255	247
		65	55	53	50	44	38	36	27	24	19	15	11	11	9	5	4	4	3	2	1	0
		202	209	217	230	242	253	263	274	284	294	303	308	312	324	333	341	347	351	354	360	367
	38%	363	361	356	352	343	337	334	327	322	316	311	306	303	294	287	280	274	271	269	264	256
		59	54	51	43	40	35	28	24	19	15	11	11	10	7	5	4	4	2	1	0	0
		201	208	214	225	240	245	262	269	279	288	298	303	310	317	327	334	344	348	353	355	359
	39%	369	365	364	360	349	346	339	335	329	323	316	311	306	303	294	287	278	275	272	270	265
		54	51	46	40	36	34	24	21	17	14	11	11	9	5	4	4	2	1	0	0	0
		200	205	213	223	232	248	259	268	275	285	291	299	305	313	318	330	335	344	350	353	355
Labour	40%	375	372	370	364	361	352	344	339	335	329	324	318	313	307	303	292	288	280	275	272	270
		50	48	41	38	32	25	22	18	15	11	10	8	7	5	4	2	1	0	0	0	0
		30%	31%	32%	33%	34%	35%	36%	37%	38%	39%	40%	41%	42%	43%	44%	45%	46%	47%	48%	49%	50%
		Conservative

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