Alyn and Deeside: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Alyn and Deeside: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mark Tami  (LAB)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 77,032
Turnout: 74.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB Majority5,6029.8%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Alyn and Deeside : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Alyn and Deeside constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Economic Position5° Left10° Left
National Position1° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity34%26%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC47%46%51%
Average Age49.549.648.5
ABC1 Class47%47%53%

Alyn and Deeside ranks #240 for "Leave", #430 for "Right" and #335 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Alyn and Deeside: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015


This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Alyn and Deeside been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Alyn and Deeside

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Alyn and Deeside

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Alyn and Deeside, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Alyn and DeesideTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
FlintshireAston2,351Alyn and Deeside9425901668054001,670
FlintshireBroughton North East1,728Alyn and Deeside29589032901001,227
FlintshireBroughton South2,880Alyn and Deeside7541,1714648026002,045
FlintshireBuckley Bistre East2,594Alyn and Deeside75873322971051001,842
FlintshireBuckley Bistre West3,520Alyn and Deeside7421,35028558065002,500
FlintshireBuckley Mountain2,292Alyn and Deeside8566522141058001,628
FlintshireBuckley Pentrobin3,584Alyn and Deeside1,4379194071078002,545
FlintshireCaergwrle1,235Alyn and Deeside210575261904700877
FlintshireConnah's Quay Central2,535Alyn and Deeside3271,3791338043001,800
FlintshireConnah's Quay Golftyn4,222Alyn and Deeside8841,9631277062002,998
FlintshireConnah's Quay South4,335Alyn and Deeside9561,92512448026003,079
FlintshireConnah's Quay Wepre1,729Alyn and Deeside501663330030001,227
FlintshireEwloe4,185Alyn and Deeside1,855987856064002,970
FlintshireHawarden1,428Alyn and Deeside8251834102001,015
FlintshireHigher Kinnerton1,306Alyn and Deeside562307132202200926
FlintshireHope1,944Alyn and Deeside8054212410111001,380
FlintshireLlanfynydd1,449Alyn and Deeside5364281220034001,030
FlintshireMancot2,655Alyn and Deeside5961,185852044001,885
FlintshirePenyffordd2,915Alyn and Deeside9381,0003540057002,070
FlintshireQueensferry1,606Alyn and Deeside13996912704001,140
FlintshireSaltney Mold Junction1,103Alyn and Deeside389308293202500783
FlintshireSaltney Stonebridge2,792Alyn and Deeside8201,0203764042001,983
FlintshireSealand2,289Alyn and Deeside4441,1191528020001,626
FlintshireShotton East1,465Alyn and Deeside3455693550041001,040
FlintshireShotton Higher1,993Alyn and Deeside393926235059001,415
FlintshireShotton West1,648Alyn and Deeside200906838018001,170
FlintshireTreuddyn1,256Alyn and Deeside574178213208700892
 Total63,039 18,08323,3161,0771,11601,1710044,763

The full details of these calculations are given on the Alyn and Deeside seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Delyn

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Delyn, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: DelynTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
FlintshireArgoed2,161Alyn and Deeside8235262020024001,575
FlintshireBagillt East1,474Flint and Rhuddlan438582230031001,074
FlintshireBagillt West1,732Flint and Rhuddlan2101,00360043001,262
FlintshireBrynford1,693Flint and Rhuddlan76543160031001,233
FlintshireCaerwys1,970Flint and Rhuddlan1,091276250043001,435
FlintshireCilcain1,470Flint and Rhuddlan59043390039001,071
FlintshireFfynnongroyw1,400Flint and Rhuddlan32466450027001,020
FlintshireFlint Castle1,611Flint and Rhuddlan138989230024001,174
FlintshireFlint Coleshill3,056Flint and Rhuddlan5511,65613007002,227
FlintshireFlint Oakenholt2,383Flint and Rhuddlan5811,0172500114001,737
FlintshireFlint Trelawny2,863Flint and Rhuddlan5971,410610017002,085
FlintshireGreenfield2,141Flint and Rhuddlan52199130044001,559
FlintshireGronant1,180Flint and Rhuddlan260586500900860
FlintshireGwernaffield1,517Alyn and Deeside662413200010001,105
FlintshireGwernymynydd1,371Alyn and Deeside38851174002500998
FlintshireHalkyn1,341Flint and Rhuddlan5863522003700977
FlintshireHolywell Central1,533Flint and Rhuddlan322758240012001,116
FlintshireHolywell East1,365Flint and Rhuddlan3625999002500995
FlintshireHolywell West1,822Flint and Rhuddlan365563300397001,328
FlintshireLeeswood1,651Alyn and Deeside536610230032001,201
FlintshireMold Broncoed2,116Alyn and Deeside712758540017001,541
FlintshireMold East1,529Alyn and Deeside343715310024001,113
FlintshireMold South2,083Alyn and Deeside61562210500175001,517
FlintshireMold West2,047Alyn and Deeside5188322900111001,490
FlintshireMostyn (Delyn)1,437Flint and Rhuddlan386613170030001,046
FlintshireNew Brighton2,353Alyn and Deeside801780128005001,714
FlintshireNorthop2,368Flint and Rhuddlan1,08062370015001,725
FlintshireNorthop Hall1,182Flint and Rhuddlan429425400300861
FlintshireTrelawnyd and Gwaenysgor1,442Flint and Rhuddlan64131560088001,050
FlintshireWhitford1,824Flint and Rhuddlan698521870022001,328
 Total54,115 16,33320,5741,029001,4810039,417

The full details of these calculations are given on the Delyn seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Alyn and Deeside

The new seat of Alyn and Deeside is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Alyn and Deeside
Old Seat CON
FlintshireAston2,258Alyn and Deeside9425901668054001,670
FlintshireBroughton North East1,660Alyn and Deeside29589032901001,227
FlintshireBroughton South2,766Alyn and Deeside7541,1714648026002,045
FlintshireBuckley Bistre East2,492Alyn and Deeside75873322971051001,842
FlintshireBuckley Bistre West3,381Alyn and Deeside7421,35028558065002,500
FlintshireBuckley Mountain2,202Alyn and Deeside8566522141058001,628
FlintshireBuckley Pentrobin3,442Alyn and Deeside1,4379194071078002,545
FlintshireCaergwrle1,186Alyn and Deeside210575261904700877
FlintshireConnah's Quay Central2,435Alyn and Deeside3271,3791338043001,800
FlintshireConnah's Quay Golftyn4,055Alyn and Deeside8841,9631277062002,998
FlintshireConnah's Quay South4,164Alyn and Deeside9561,92512448026003,079
FlintshireConnah's Quay Wepre1,661Alyn and Deeside501663330030001,227
FlintshireEwloe4,020Alyn and Deeside1,855987856064002,970
FlintshireHawarden1,372Alyn and Deeside8251834102001,015
FlintshireHigher Kinnerton1,254Alyn and Deeside562307132202200926
FlintshireHope1,867Alyn and Deeside8054212410111001,380
FlintshireLlanfynydd1,392Alyn and Deeside5364281220034001,030
FlintshireMancot2,550Alyn and Deeside5961,185852044001,885
FlintshireMold Broncoed1,878Delyn712758540017001,541
FlintshireMold East1,491Delyn343715310024001,113
FlintshireMold South2,155Delyn61562210500175001,517
FlintshireMold West1,965Delyn5188322900111001,490
FlintshireNew Brighton2,347Delyn801780128005001,714
FlintshirePenyffordd2,800Alyn and Deeside9381,0003540057002,070
FlintshireQueensferry1,543Alyn and Deeside13996912704001,140
FlintshireSaltney Mold Junction1,059Alyn and Deeside389308293202500783
FlintshireSaltney Stonebridge2,682Alyn and Deeside8201,0203764042001,983
FlintshireSealand2,199Alyn and Deeside4441,1191528020001,626
FlintshireShotton East1,407Alyn and Deeside3455693550041001,040
FlintshireShotton Higher1,914Alyn and Deeside393926235059001,415
FlintshireShotton West1,583Alyn and Deeside200906838018001,170
FlintshireTreuddyn1,206Alyn and Deeside574178213208700892
 Total77,032 23,48129,0831,7431,11601,5940057,017

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Alyn and Deeside.

© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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