New Seat Details - Alyn and Deeside

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Alyn and Deeside been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	29,266	51.3%
CON	23,367	41.0%
Plaid	1,680	2.9%
LIB	1,584	2.8%
UKIP	1,116	2.0%
LAB Majority	5,899	10.3%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Alyn and Deeside: Map

List of old seats forming part of Alyn and Deeside

Old seat: Alyn and Deeside

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Alyn and Deeside, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Alyn and Deeside				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	Plaid Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Flintshire	Aston	2,258	Alyn and Deeside	789	770	29	45	0	36	0	0	1,669
Flintshire	Broughton North East	1,660	Alyn and Deeside	457	703	17	27	0	23	0	0	1,227
Flintshire	Broughton South	2,766	Alyn and Deeside	725	1,147	55	48	0	70	0	0	2,045
Flintshire	Buckley Bistre East	2,492	Alyn and Deeside	793	816	132	51	0	49	0	0	1,841
Flintshire	Buckley Bistre West	3,381	Alyn and Deeside	901	1,336	131	63	0	67	0	0	2,498
Flintshire	Buckley Mountain	2,202	Alyn and Deeside	776	734	31	43	0	42	0	0	1,626
Flintshire	Buckley Pentrobin	3,442	Alyn and Deeside	1,208	1,153	50	70	0	63	0	0	2,544
Flintshire	Caergwrle	1,186	Alyn and Deeside	297	521	15	21	0	23	0	0	877
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Central	2,435	Alyn and Deeside	535	1,160	27	45	0	33	0	0	1,800
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Golftyn	4,055	Alyn and Deeside	946	1,834	47	74	0	97	0	0	2,998
Flintshire	Connah's Quay South	4,164	Alyn and Deeside	1,123	1,674	131	73	0	77	0	0	3,078
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Wepre	1,661	Alyn and Deeside	470	666	23	34	0	34	0	0	1,227
Flintshire	Ewloe	4,020	Alyn and Deeside	1,598	1,180	53	72	0	69	0	0	2,972
Flintshire	Hawarden	1,372	Alyn and Deeside	687	275	17	22	0	13	0	0	1,014
Flintshire	Higher Kinnerton	1,254	Alyn and Deeside	463	380	44	21	0	20	0	0	928
Flintshire	Hope	1,867	Alyn and Deeside	680	603	24	36	0	36	0	0	1,379
Flintshire	Llanfynydd	1,392	Alyn and Deeside	557	402	16	24	0	31	0	0	1,030
Flintshire	Mancot	2,550	Alyn and Deeside	658	1,103	30	46	0	49	0	0	1,886
Flintshire	Penyffordd	2,800	Alyn and Deeside	899	1,037	34	50	0	50	0	0	2,070
Flintshire	Queensferry	1,543	Alyn and Deeside	357	699	16	31	0	37	0	0	1,140
Flintshire	Saltney Mold Junction	1,059	Alyn and Deeside	328	399	17	22	0	17	0	0	783
Flintshire	Saltney Stonebridge	2,682	Alyn and Deeside	735	1,087	43	47	0	70	0	0	1,982
Flintshire	Sealand	2,199	Alyn and Deeside	532	1,000	20	37	0	37	0	0	1,626
Flintshire	Shotton East	1,407	Alyn and Deeside	347	612	20	27	0	33	0	0	1,039
Flintshire	Shotton Higher	1,914	Alyn and Deeside	424	918	14	35	0	24	0	0	1,415
Flintshire	Shotton West	1,583	Alyn and Deeside	367	708	28	29	0	39	0	0	1,171
Flintshire	Treuddyn	1,206	Alyn and Deeside	427	398	11	23	0	32	0	0	891
	Total	60,550		18,079	23,315	1,075	1,116	0	1,171	0	0	44,756

The full details of these calculations are given on the Alyn and Deeside seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Delyn

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Delyn, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Delyn				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	Plaid Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Flintshire	Argoed	2,130	Alyn and Deeside	730	714	91	0	0	39	0	0	1,574
Flintshire	Bagillt East	1,420	Rhuddlan and Flint	428	602	11	0	0	32	0	0	1,073
Flintshire	Bagillt West	1,559	Rhuddlan and Flint	375	845	14	0	0	27	0	0	1,261
Flintshire	Brynford	1,702	Rhuddlan and Flint	749	433	11	0	0	39	0	0	1,232
Flintshire	Caerwys	1,979	Rhuddlan and Flint	898	467	17	0	0	53	0	0	1,435
Flintshire	Cilcain	1,495	Rhuddlan and Flint	639	391	13	0	0	29	0	0	1,072
Flintshire	Ffynnongroyw	1,409	Rhuddlan and Flint	350	646	10	0	0	14	0	0	1,020
Flintshire	Flint Castle	1,324	Rhuddlan and Flint	297	840	15	0	0	22	0	0	1,174
Flintshire	Flint Coleshill	2,914	Rhuddlan and Flint	676	1,421	66	0	0	63	0	0	2,226
Flintshire	Flint Oakenholt	2,026	Rhuddlan and Flint	563	977	39	0	0	158	0	0	1,737
Flintshire	Flint Trelawny	2,645	Rhuddlan and Flint	719	1,225	77	0	0	64	0	0	2,085
Flintshire	Greenfield	1,965	Rhuddlan and Flint	512	984	26	0	0	38	0	0	1,560
Flintshire	Gronant	1,182	Rhuddlan and Flint	294	534	15	0	0	16	0	0	859
Flintshire	Gwernaffield	1,602	Alyn and Deeside	649	387	42	0	0	27	0	0	1,105
Flintshire	Gwernymynydd	1,371	Alyn and Deeside	466	467	41	0	0	26	0	0	1,000
Flintshire	Halkyn	1,395	Rhuddlan and Flint	467	457	13	0	0	40	0	0	977
Flintshire	Holywell Central	1,389	Rhuddlan and Flint	326	736	36	0	0	19	0	0	1,117
Flintshire	Holywell East	1,361	Rhuddlan and Flint	340	601	19	0	0	33	0	0	993
Flintshire	Holywell West	1,766	Rhuddlan and Flint	521	660	16	0	0	129	0	0	1,326
Flintshire	Leeswood	1,543	Alyn and Deeside	484	652	24	0	0	42	0	0	1,202
Flintshire	Mold Broncoed	1,878	Alyn and Deeside	635	764	95	0	0	47	0	0	1,541
Flintshire	Mold East	1,491	Alyn and Deeside	367	704	23	0	0	20	0	0	1,114
Flintshire	Mold South	2,155	Alyn and Deeside	694	607	79	0	0	137	0	0	1,517
Flintshire	Mold West	1,965	Alyn and Deeside	481	846	34	0	0	130	0	0	1,491
Flintshire	Mostyn (Delyn)	1,413	Rhuddlan and Flint	405	607	9	0	0	26	0	0	1,047
Flintshire	New Brighton	2,347	Alyn and Deeside	782	810	80	0	0	41	0	0	1,713
Flintshire	Northop	2,439	Rhuddlan and Flint	849	801	30	0	0	45	0	0	1,725
Flintshire	Northop Hall	1,248	Rhuddlan and Flint	392	437	16	0	0	16	0	0	861
Flintshire	Trelawnyd and Gwaenysgor	1,451	Rhuddlan and Flint	612	363	9	0	0	66	0	0	1,050
Flintshire	Whitford	1,824	Rhuddlan and Flint	632	594	61	0	0	42	0	0	1,329
	Total	52,388		16,332	20,572	1,032	0	0	1,480	0	0	39,416

The full details of these calculations are given on the Delyn seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Alyn and Deeside

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	Plaid Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Alyn and Deeside
Flintshire	Argoed	2,161	Delyn	730	714	91	0	0	39	0	0	1,574
Flintshire	Aston	2,351	Alyn and Deeside	789	770	29	45	0	36	0	0	1,669
Flintshire	Broughton North East	1,728	Alyn and Deeside	457	703	17	27	0	23	0	0	1,227
Flintshire	Broughton South	2,880	Alyn and Deeside	725	1,147	55	48	0	70	0	0	2,045
Flintshire	Buckley Bistre East	2,594	Alyn and Deeside	793	816	132	51	0	49	0	0	1,841
Flintshire	Buckley Bistre West	3,520	Alyn and Deeside	901	1,336	131	63	0	67	0	0	2,498
Flintshire	Buckley Mountain	2,292	Alyn and Deeside	776	734	31	43	0	42	0	0	1,626
Flintshire	Buckley Pentrobin	3,584	Alyn and Deeside	1,208	1,153	50	70	0	63	0	0	2,544
Flintshire	Caergwrle	1,235	Alyn and Deeside	297	521	15	21	0	23	0	0	877
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Central	2,535	Alyn and Deeside	535	1,160	27	45	0	33	0	0	1,800
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Golftyn	4,222	Alyn and Deeside	946	1,834	47	74	0	97	0	0	2,998
Flintshire	Connah's Quay South	4,335	Alyn and Deeside	1,123	1,674	131	73	0	77	0	0	3,078
Flintshire	Connah's Quay Wepre	1,729	Alyn and Deeside	470	666	23	34	0	34	0	0	1,227
Flintshire	Ewloe	4,185	Alyn and Deeside	1,598	1,180	53	72	0	69	0	0	2,972
Flintshire	Gwernaffield	1,517	Delyn	649	387	42	0	0	27	0	0	1,105
Flintshire	Gwernymynydd	1,371	Delyn	466	467	41	0	0	26	0	0	1,000
Flintshire	Hawarden	1,428	Alyn and Deeside	687	275	17	22	0	13	0	0	1,014
Flintshire	Higher Kinnerton	1,306	Alyn and Deeside	463	380	44	21	0	20	0	0	928
Flintshire	Hope	1,944	Alyn and Deeside	680	603	24	36	0	36	0	0	1,379
Flintshire	Leeswood	1,651	Delyn	484	652	24	0	0	42	0	0	1,202
Flintshire	Llanfynydd	1,449	Alyn and Deeside	557	402	16	24	0	31	0	0	1,030
Flintshire	Mancot	2,655	Alyn and Deeside	658	1,103	30	46	0	49	0	0	1,886
Flintshire	Mold Broncoed	2,116	Delyn	635	764	95	0	0	47	0	0	1,541
Flintshire	Mold East	1,529	Delyn	367	704	23	0	0	20	0	0	1,114
Flintshire	Mold South	2,083	Delyn	694	607	79	0	0	137	0	0	1,517
Flintshire	Mold West	2,047	Delyn	481	846	34	0	0	130	0	0	1,491
Flintshire	New Brighton	2,353	Delyn	782	810	80	0	0	41	0	0	1,713
Flintshire	Penyffordd	2,915	Alyn and Deeside	899	1,037	34	50	0	50	0	0	2,070
Flintshire	Queensferry	1,606	Alyn and Deeside	357	699	16	31	0	37	0	0	1,140
Flintshire	Saltney Mold Junction	1,103	Alyn and Deeside	328	399	17	22	0	17	0	0	783
Flintshire	Saltney Stonebridge	2,792	Alyn and Deeside	735	1,087	43	47	0	70	0	0	1,982
Flintshire	Sealand	2,289	Alyn and Deeside	532	1,000	20	37	0	37	0	0	1,626
Flintshire	Shotton East	1,465	Alyn and Deeside	347	612	20	27	0	33	0	0	1,039
Flintshire	Shotton Higher	1,993	Alyn and Deeside	424	918	14	35	0	24	0	0	1,415
Flintshire	Shotton West	1,648	Alyn and Deeside	367	708	28	29	0	39	0	0	1,171
Flintshire	Treuddyn	1,256	Alyn and Deeside	427	398	11	23	0	32	0	0	891
	Total	79,867		23,367	29,266	1,584	1,116	0	1,680	0	0	57,013

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Alyn and Deeside. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Mark Tami (LAB)
County/Area:	Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:	79,867
Turnout:	71.4%

Alyn and Deeside: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Alyn and Deeside: Overview

Introduction