Buckingham: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Buckingham: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: John Bercow  (CON)
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate: 74,596
Turnout: 71.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,19162.4%
Green7,27113.7%
MIN4,5958.6%
LAB4,3208.1%
UKIP3,5676.7%
LIB2600.5%
CON Majority25,92048.7%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Buckingham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Buckingham constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right4° Right
National Position9° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %47%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health49%49%48%
UK Born96%88%88%
Good Education42%43%39%
Good Job58%56%51%
High SEC59%57%51%
Average Age51.649.248.5
ABC1 Class60%60%53%

Buckingham ranks #426 for "Leave", #38 for "Right" and #131 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Buckingham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Buckingham been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Buckingham

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Buckingham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Buckingham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BuckinghamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham North5,110Buckingham2,19900279631027103,380
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham South4,407Buckingham1,93100243487025502,916
Aylesbury ValeEdlesborough2,297Aylesbury1,274005211208201,520
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse1,349Aylesbury493001301810880892
Aylesbury ValeGreat Brickhill and Newton Longville4,484Buckingham2,13900230431016702,967
Aylesbury ValeGreat Horwood2,660Buckingham1,250004937708501,761
Aylesbury ValeGrendon Underwood and Brill3,168Buckingham1,38300230353013102,097
Aylesbury ValeHaddenham and Stone7,091Buckingham2,78700379902062404,692
Aylesbury ValeLong Crendon2,710Buckingham1,23600112328011701,793
Aylesbury ValeLuffield Abbey2,678Buckingham1,17500126365010401,770
Aylesbury ValeMarsh Gibbon2,584Buckingham1,20500166217012101,709
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton1,397Aylesbury554001141700860924
Aylesbury ValeOakley2,317Buckingham1,1750013813508601,534
Aylesbury ValePitstone and Cheddington5,055Aylesbury2,22500203696022203,346
Aylesbury ValeQuainton2,522Buckingham1,05100155174028801,668
Aylesbury ValeSteeple Claydon2,478Buckingham1,05700178299010601,640
Aylesbury ValeStewkley2,840Buckingham1,28600128362010401,880
Aylesbury ValeTingewick2,706Buckingham1,22900158303010001,790
Aylesbury ValeWaddesdon2,417Buckingham1,04900209214012801,600
Aylesbury ValeWatermead541Aylesbury2420034510320359
Aylesbury ValeWing2,520Aylesbury1,21200181175010001,668
Aylesbury ValeWingrave2,282Aylesbury75500103216043501,509
Aylesbury ValeWinslow4,705Buckingham1,97300253625026303,114
WycombeIcknield2,677Buckingham1,14800123235026601,772
WycombeThe Risboroughs6,622Buckingham2,2730019653401,37904,382
 Total79,617 34,301004,1698,57305,640052,683

The full details of these calculations are given on the Buckingham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Milton Keynes South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Milton Keynes South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Milton Keynes SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Milton KeynesBletchley East9,336Milton Keynes South West2,6033,384105347710006,510
Milton KeynesBletchley Park10,358Milton Keynes South West3,4363,239110344930007,222
Milton KeynesBletchley West10,632Milton Keynes South West3,4683,2681813851110007,413
Milton KeynesBradwell3,072Milton Keynes South West8491,07211281290002,143
Milton KeynesCampbell Park and Old Woughton832Milton Keynes North East26626330813000580
Milton KeynesDanesborough and Walton8,611Milton Keynes North East3,6082,038226151160006,003
Milton KeynesLoughton and Shenley10,328Milton Keynes South West3,8222,9241871051640007,202
Milton KeynesMonkston5,377Milton Keynes North East1,9531,54616321660003,749
Milton KeynesShenley Brook End9,932Milton Keynes South West3,4742,7354641331200006,926
Milton KeynesStony Stratford7,775Buckingham2,6052,3271251352290005,421
Milton KeynesTattenhoe7,629Buckingham3,0401,99313580700005,318
Milton KeynesWoughton and Fishermead8,610Milton Keynes North East1,5294,13958179990006,004
 Total92,492 30,65328,9281,8961,8331,18100064,491

The full details of these calculations are given on the Milton Keynes South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Buckingham

The new seat of Buckingham is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Buckingham
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham North4,287Buckingham2,19900279631027103,380
Aylesbury ValeBuckingham South4,285Buckingham1,93100243487025502,916
Aylesbury ValeGreat Brickhill and Newton Longville4,577Buckingham2,13900230431016702,967
Aylesbury ValeGreat Horwood2,487Buckingham1,250004937708501,761
Aylesbury ValeGrendon Underwood and Brill2,569Buckingham1,38300230353013102,097
Aylesbury ValeHaddenham and Stone7,028Buckingham2,78700379902062404,692
Aylesbury ValeLong Crendon2,456Buckingham1,23600112328011701,793
Aylesbury ValeLuffield Abbey2,079Buckingham1,17500126365010401,770
Aylesbury ValeMarsh Gibbon2,450Buckingham1,20500166217012101,709
Aylesbury ValeOakley2,239Buckingham1,1750013813508601,534
Aylesbury ValeQuainton2,433Buckingham1,05100155174028801,668
Aylesbury ValeSteeple Claydon2,312Buckingham1,05700178299010601,640
Aylesbury ValeStewkley2,538Buckingham1,28600128362010401,880
Aylesbury ValeTingewick2,468Buckingham1,22900158303010001,790
Aylesbury ValeWaddesdon2,196Buckingham1,04900209214012801,600
Aylesbury ValeWinslow4,658Buckingham1,97300253625026303,114
Milton KeynesStony Stratford7,408Milton Keynes South2,6052,3271251352290005,421
Milton KeynesTattenhoe7,373Milton Keynes South3,0401,99313580700005,318
WycombeIcknield2,459Buckingham1,14800123235026601,772
WycombeThe Risboroughs6,294Buckingham2,2730019653401,37904,382
 Total74,596 33,1914,3202603,5677,27104,595053,204

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Buckingham.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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