Devon Central: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Devon Central: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mel Stride  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 71,231
Turnout: 81.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON32,05155.2%
LAB14,76325.4%
LIB7,20512.4%
Green1,6242.8%
UKIP1,2442.1%
MIN7111.2%
OTH5070.9%
CON Majority17,28829.8%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Devon Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Devon Central constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right1° Right
National Position2° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity20%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education32%40%39%
Good Job44%50%51%
High SEC41%52%51%
Average Age48.550.548.5
ABC1 Class43%54%53%

Devon Central ranks #323 for "Leave", #283 for "Right" and #305 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devon Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Devon Central been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Devon Central

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Devon Central

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon CentralTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonExe Valley1,703Devon East813369581313036231,325
Mid DevonBoniface3,212Devon Central90366363021957012142,498
Mid DevonBradninch1,710Devon Central58735931440140961,329
Mid DevonCadbury1,366Devon Central53231990744029141,062
Mid DevonLawrence3,146Devon Central9896745451655201472,446
Mid DevonNewbrooke1,288Devon Central53934274218017101,002
Mid DevonSandford and Creedy2,865Devon Central1,395467218368601982,229
Mid DevonSilverton1,550Devon Central5453102888430641,204
Mid DevonTaw1,370Devon Central646217152152301041,067
Mid DevonTaw Vale1,367Devon Central65617216030380521,063
Mid DevonUpper Yeo1,468Devon Central9141294723150861,142
Mid DevonWay1,360Devon Central75624143390331,058
Mid DevonYeo2,890Devon Central1,4264612971916018122,249
TeignbridgeAshburton and Buckfastleigh6,457Devon Central2,1121,67178437323066295,022
TeignbridgeBovey6,433Devon Central2,7121,3427285685053275,003
TeignbridgeChudleigh5,136Newton Abbot1,9991,34634347117088543,994
TeignbridgeHaytor2,398Devon Central1,0484442642523040201,864
TeignbridgeKenn Valley4,951Newton Abbot2,0739286912286035153,850
TeignbridgeMoorland2,346Devon Central64183410015100086481,824
TeignbridgeTeign Valley2,242Devon Central919573112864047201,743
TeignbridgeTeignbridge North2,209Devon Central944497177228044261,718
West DevonBridestowe218Devon Central9850635052169
West DevonChagford1,201Devon Central4573024987802714935
West DevonDrewsteignton1,362Devon Central712195593820431,058
West DevonExbourne3,084Devon Central1,64960895817011102,398
West DevonHatherleigh2,466Devon Central1,545134125751101991,918
West DevonOkehampton North3,723Devon Central1,7347811238758077372,897
West DevonOkehampton South3,213Devon Central1,34770013125314033212,499
West DevonSouth Tawton1,637Devon Central588467661071049221,273
 Total74,371 31,27915,5956,7691,3261,530087047057,839

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon Central seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Devon West and Torridge

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon West and Torridge, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon West and TorridgeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TorridgeAppledore2,332Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,03330531605000191,723
TorridgeBideford East4,969Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,6961,15470008800333,671
TorridgeBideford North4,822Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,5211,041826013900353,562
TorridgeBideford South4,421Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,3511,27460401600203,265
TorridgeBroadheath1,415Bideford, Bude and Launceston9025574080061,045
TorridgeClinton1,274Devon Central5061751940420024941
TorridgeClovelly Bay1,337Bideford, Bude and Launceston516223230012007988
TorridgeCoham Bridge1,290Bideford, Bude and Launceston686127120060014953
TorridgeForest1,436Bideford, Bude and Launceston7601221270430081,060
TorridgeHartland and Bradworthy2,494Bideford, Bude and Launceston92038141109000401,842
TorridgeHolsworthy3,237Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,56330547103700142,390
TorridgeKenwith1,424Bideford, Bude and Launceston794117129060061,052
TorridgeMonkleigh and Littleham1,165Bideford, Bude and Launceston5461181430350017859
TorridgeNortham4,615Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,90289553903900343,409
TorridgeOrchard Hill1,278Bideford, Bude and Launceston60917914309004944
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree1,659Bideford, Bude and Launceston9411051290420091,226
TorridgeTamarside1,418Bideford, Bude and Launceston5762182130500361,048
TorridgeThree Moors1,358Devon Central7371061120390091,003
TorridgeTorrington4,728Devon Central1,6861,019614013100423,492
TorridgeTwo Rivers1,416Devon Central886379501700101,045
TorridgeWaldon1,399Bideford, Bude and Launceston56218223302100351,033
TorridgeWestward Ho!1,734Bideford, Bude and Launceston74621623306200251,282
TorridgeWinkleigh1,722Devon Central77917027802900161,272
West DevonBere Ferrers2,897Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,11658434706200302,139
West DevonBridestowe2,276Devon Central1,06330423505200281,682
West DevonBuckland Monachorum3,099Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,31345838509700362,289
West DevonBurrator2,995Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,17248643207700442,211
West DevonDartmoor1,829Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge9011961710740091,351
West DevonMary Tavy1,284Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge4742172030200033947
West DevonMilton Ford1,570Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge79518913701700211,159
West DevonTamarside1,436Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge60823716902000271,061
West DevonTavistock North4,115Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,55384450008500583,040
West DevonTavistock South East3,004Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,40136735206700312,218
West DevonTavistock South West3,077Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge99651966108300142,273
 Total80,525 33,61012,92510,52601,6200079459,475

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon West and Torridge seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Devon Central

The new seat of Devon Central is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Devon Central
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid DevonBoniface2,798Devon Central90366363021957012142,498
Mid DevonBradninch1,491Devon Central58735931440140961,329
Mid DevonCadbury1,288Devon Central53231990744029141,062
Mid DevonLawrence2,761Devon Central9896745451655201472,446
Mid DevonNewbrooke1,195Devon Central53934274218017101,002
Mid DevonSandford and Creedy2,653Devon Central1,395467218368601982,229
Mid DevonSilverton1,469Devon Central5453102888430641,204
Mid DevonTaw1,297Devon Central646217152152301041,067
Mid DevonTaw Vale1,315Devon Central65617216030380521,063
Mid DevonUpper Yeo1,334Devon Central9141294723150861,142
Mid DevonWay1,213Devon Central75624143390331,058
Mid DevonYeo2,609Devon Central1,4264612971916018122,249
TeignbridgeAshburton and Buckfastleigh6,060Devon Central2,1121,67178437323066295,022
TeignbridgeBovey6,437Devon Central2,7121,3427285685053275,003
TeignbridgeHaytor2,287Devon Central1,0484442642523040201,864
TeignbridgeMoorland2,264Devon Central64183410015100086481,824
TeignbridgeTeign Valley2,206Devon Central919573112864047201,743
TeignbridgeTeignbridge North2,423Devon Central944497177228044261,718
TorridgeClinton1,251Devon West and Torridge5061751940420024941
TorridgeThree Moors1,339Devon West and Torridge7371061120390091,003
TorridgeTorrington4,240Devon West and Torridge1,6861,019614013100423,492
TorridgeTwo Rivers1,498Devon West and Torridge886379501700101,045
TorridgeWinkleigh1,699Devon West and Torridge77917027802900161,272
West DevonBridestowe215Devon Central101312105003161
West DevonBridestowe2,250Devon West and Torridge1,06032322035205271,690
West DevonChagford1,152Devon Central4573024987802714935
West DevonDrewsteignton1,325Devon Central712195593820431,058
West DevonExbourne2,968Devon Central1,64960895817011102,398
West DevonHatherleigh2,341Devon Central1,545134125751101991,918
West DevonOkehampton North3,642Devon Central1,7347811238758077372,897
West DevonOkehampton South2,696Devon Central1,34770013125314033212,499
West DevonSouth Tawton1,515Devon Central588467661071049221,273
 Total71,231 32,05114,7637,2051,2441,624071150758,105

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Devon Central.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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