Dudley: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Dudley: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mike Wood  (CON)
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate: 75,255
Turnout: 62.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON25,42654.2%
LAB18,20938.8%
UKIP2,3255.0%
LIB6221.3%
Green3150.7%
CON Majority7,21715.4%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Dudley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dudley constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right2° Right
National Position18° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %70%59%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education43%35%39%
Good Job54%48%51%
High SEC59%46%51%
Average Age54.648.748.5
ABC1 Class57%49%53%

Dudley ranks #21 for "Leave", #242 for "Right" and #17 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dudley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Dudley been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Dudley

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Dudley North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dudley North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dudley NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DudleyCastle and Priory11,346Dudley2,9223,73759370270007,115
DudleyGornal10,048Dudley3,3632,36284462310006,302
DudleySedgley9,167Wolverhampton South and Coseley3,4991,85461316200005,750
DudleySt James's10,287Dudley2,8593,18434310630006,450
DudleySt Thomas's11,143Warley2,4494,19736232740006,988
DudleyUpper Gornal and Woodsetton10,053Wolverhampton South and Coseley2,9772,75594454250006,305
 Total62,044 18,06918,0893682,14424000038,910

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dudley North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dudley South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dudley South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dudley SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DudleyBrierley Hill10,845Dudley;
Stourbridge
3,1622,996138392750006,763
DudleyBrockmoor and Pensnett9,933Dudley3,0052,71967359450006,195
DudleyKingswinford North and Wall Heath9,707Dudley4,1911,58361190280006,053
DudleyKingswinford South9,762Dudley4,1271,572150209290006,087
DudleyNetherton, Woodside and St Andrews11,327Halesowen and Rowley Regis3,3663,094953671430007,065
DudleyWordsley9,749Dudley3,7371,894114273630006,081
 Total61,323 21,58813,8586251,79038300038,244

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dudley South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Dudley

The new seat of Dudley is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Dudley
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DudleyBrierley Hill3,806Dudley South1,2221,15853152290002,614
DudleyBrockmoor and Pensnett9,585Dudley South3,0052,71967359450006,195
DudleyCastle and Priory11,018Dudley North2,9223,73759370270007,115
DudleyGornal10,502Dudley North3,3632,36284462310006,302
DudleyKingswinford North and Wall Heath10,108Dudley South4,1911,58361190280006,053
DudleyKingswinford South10,272Dudley South4,1271,572150209290006,087
DudleySt James's9,842Dudley North2,8593,18434310630006,450
DudleyWordsley10,122Dudley South3,7371,894114273630006,081
 Total75,255 25,42618,2096222,32531500046,897

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Dudley.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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